The future of science studies

Science studies suffers from a sense of secondariness. It can abandon this inferiority if it relocates itself in terms of a politics of knowledge. Science studies should stop viewing itself as a quilt patch of subjects and reading itself as a creative mediation between knowledge and power. This is illustrated in terms of the emergence of Science Studies in India. Official India emphasized science policy as an extension of the Nation-State. Science studies arose as a response to science policy questioning the social contract between Science and State in India. Science studies emerged as a part of civil society after the Emergency of 1975 and among social movements rather than as a professionalized academic subject. In attempting to create an identity, science studies moved across four axis of possibility: the science of science, interdisciplinary science, transscience and alternative science. The second part of the paper links science studies to the democratic imagination. It argues that the citizen must be seen as a scientist, a person of knowledge not merely as a consumer and voter. The citizen thus becomes a trustee of local, defeated and marginal forms of knowledge. Its real role is in enhancing the democratic imagination, providing methodologies of conflict resolution and plural frameworks of knowledge for cognitive justice, thus emerging as a site for dissenting imaginations against the emerging global regime.     

Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective

The CAPM as the benchmark asset pricing model generally performs poorly in both developed and emerging markets. We investigate whether allowing the model parameters to vary improves the performance of the CAPM and the Fama–French model. Conditional asset pricing models scaled by conditioning variables such as Trading Volume and Dividend Yield generally result in small pricing errors. However, a graphical analysis reveals that the predictions of conditional models are generally upward biased. We demonstrate that the bias in prediction may be the consequence of ignoring frequent large variation in asset returns caused by volatile institutional, political and macroeconomic conditions. This is characterised by excess kurtosis. An unconditional Fama–French model augmented with a cubic market factor performs the best among some competing models when local risk factors are employed. Moreover, the conditional models with global risk factors scaled by global conditioning variables perform better than the unconditional models with global risk factors.     

New approaches for overcoming the complexity of future buildings impacted by new energy constraints

In many European countries, building is an economical sector where it is possible to reduce significantly energy dependence and environmental impact. Ambitious objectives are required for 2020 future buildings: extremely low energy consumption, low carbon emission, etc. To reach these new goals, the existing design of buildings has to change.Buildings are complex systems occupied by humans interacting with their environment. Indeed, each building can be considered a unique set of elements in dynamic interaction, structured and goal-oriented. New drastic energy objectives increase the complexity of building systems. Levels of energy and environmental performance, never reached in the past, are required for future buildings.In this context, it appears that professional capabilities and existing practices are no longer adequate. The actors of the building sector have to face up to a growing complexity generated by new constraints. Usual theories and practices are under questionning.The aim of this paper is to provide an original and helpful approach to this new complexity of future buildings. This approach, based on concepts of complexity and transdisciplinarity, consists in a combination of structural, functional and transformation approaches, thus providing a tridimensional cognitive framework to plan future buildings in a dynamic way.     

A vision of the future of science: reintegrating the study of humans and the rest of nature

This paper presents a vision of a desired future of science. In this vision, the future will bring the reintegration of the study of humans and the rest of nature. The barriers between the traditional disciplines will dissolve and a true ‘consilience’ of all the sciences and humanities will occur. This consilient transdisciplinary science will emerge from a rebalancing of analysis and synthesis, a recognition of the central role of envisioning in science, a pragmatic philosophy built on complex systems theory and modeling, a multiscale approach, and a consistent theory of cultural and biological co-evolution. It will allow us to build a world that is both sustainable and desirable and that recognizes our fundamental partnership with the rest of nature. It is a world that we must first imagine in order to achieve.     

Unravelling the complexity of collective mental models: A method for developing and analysing scenarios in multi-organisational contexts

In multi-organisational contexts, scenario building has been used to engage stakeholders in a critical discussion on issues of mutual importance, and to gain their support with regards to possible future responses. A review of existing literature suggests that much has been written regarding the process of scenario development and the benefits of the process, but the detailed analysis of scenario building outcomes, which encompass a large number of issues and their complex interconnections, has not been made explicit for studying and enhancing understanding of a complex societal problem. This paper presents a systematic method for analysing such complex outcomes in order to facilitate reflective thinking on important issues within the wider context for policy development. The method was employed in a series of participative scenario development workshops, which yielded several causal maps around the theme of construction industry skills. A collective map merging the individual subject-specific causal maps was created to help provide a more holistic overview of the pertinent issues surrounding the construction skills debate. The analysis of this collective map promotes a better understanding of the issue in the wider context, the consequence of possible future events and actions, and of the pre-requisition required for certain events/desired outcomes to take place. The main benefit that could be derived from the method is the opportunity to help facilitate and encourage debate and discussion amongst key stakeholders regarding scenario theme, in this case skills improvement within construction. Due to its flexibility and adaptability, the method could potentially be applied to other areas requiring longer range planning and which contain multiple stakeholder perspectives.     

Beyond postnormal times: The future of creativity and the creativity of the future

Creativity and imagination are the most important ingredients for coping with post-normal times, according to Sardar. This paper looks at the way creativity itself is being transformed in the West, from the individualistic/atomistic view of Modernity towards a more contextual, collaborative, complex approach. It explores the potential and possibilities for this more participatory creativity to help go beyond the “crisis of the future,” and argues that the centrality of creativity must go beyond the mythology of genius and inspiration to inform philosophy, ethics, and action. Philosophical reflection and the imagination of desirable futures can emerge from a creative ethic that stresses the value of generative interactions and contexts that support creativity.     

Corporate finance and governance in emerging markets: A selective review and an agenda for future research

There are important organizational and behavioral differences between firms in emerging markets and those in developed markets. We propose a top-down approach to understand how key institutional forces shape the structures and policies of firms in emerging markets. We review a selective set of prior studies as well as papers included in this Special Issue in identifying government quality, state ownership, and financial development as critical institutional forces that shape the financing and governance of firms in emerging markets. We suggest that future research should pay attention to several important but unanswered topics related to informal enforcement, government incentives, family firms, and network organizations.     

The Cyprus debacle: what the future holds

This paper analyzes the Cyprus conflict from a realist perspective based on the assumption that it has implications for regional and global security. At the end of the millennium, the UN negotiations for Cyprus have been resumed, the USA has become more actively involved and the European Union has decided to open accession negotiations with Greek Cypriots. The paper proposes first that the futures of Cyprus are going to be determined by the strategic interests of the actors involved and, second, that unification of the island is becoming a more distant possibility.     

The future of leadership: reframing the unknown

Accepting the arguments of Donald Michael's article, this essay focuses on the need to understand patterns of denial and affirmation as they affect efforts at consensus formation. Leadership is presented as an interface role, orchestrating the exposure to light and shadow, between that which can be communicated (to followers) and that which cannot. The challenge for leadership is portrayed as one of navigating through shifting patterns of affirmation and denial. This challenge is represented in terms of four zones ranging from simple consensus, through situations undermined by unwritten rules, to a zone in which neither assertion nor denial is relevant. The latter is seen as more typical of Eastern approaches to governance. It is argued that complementary patterns of affirmation and denial are essential to the processes of sustainable communities.     

The hegemony of the physical sciences: an exploration in complexity thinking

Traditionally the natural sciences, particularly physics, have been regarded as the Gatekeepers of Truth. As such the legitimacy of others forms of knowledge have been called into question, particularly those methods that characterise the ‘softer’ sciences, and even the arts. This paper begins with an extended discussion concerning the main features of a complex system, and the nature of the boundaries that emerge within such systems. Subsequent to this discussion, and by assuming that the Universe at some level can be well-described as a complex system, the paper explores the notion of ontology, or existence, from a complex systems perspective. It is argued that none of the traditional objects of science, or any objects from any discipline, formal or not, can be said to be real in any absolute sense although a substantial realism may be temporarily associated with them. The limitations of the natural sciences is discussed as well as the deep connection between the ‘hard’ and the ‘soft’ sciences. As a result of this complex systems analysis, an evolutionary philosophy referred to as quasi-‘critical pluralism’ is outlined, which is more sensitive to the demands of complexity than contemporary reductionistic approaches.     

Low-mobility: The future of transport

Nearly all researchers into the future of global passenger transport assume that both car-ownership and overall vehicular travel will continue to rise. But they also increasingly acknowledge the environmental and resource problems facing vehicular transport, particularly global climate change and oil depletion. In order to meet these challenges, researchers propose a variety of technological solutions, including greatly improved vehicular fuel efficiency, alternative fuels and propulsion systems, and carbon capture and storage. In this paper we question whether these optimistic solutions can be developed and widely deployed in the limited time frame available, and argue instead that not only are ever-rising vehicular mobility levels unlikely to occur, but that the human costs of continuing this approach are also too great. Instead we argue that because transport is a derived demand, we must first articulate a preferred vision of the future, then design an appropriate, sustainable transport system. Finally, we briefly outline what such a low-mobility future transport system would look like, using our own city, Melbourne, Australia, as a case study.     

The Era of finance: Proposals for the future

Finance, the economic activity intermediating between savings and investments, is probably the first to reach the stage of globalization; as a consequence, the financial sector is taking a leading position in modern economic systems. While the world expects from financial efficiency an increasingly positive contribution to welfare, it appears that recent developments of financial leadership in an increasingly deregulated world system, are also acting negatively on world welfare. In many aspects, it can be established that finance is crisis prone, induces deflationary biases and stimulates speculative behaviour: crisis, deflation and speculation are often harmful to the real economy. A set of proposals are made in order to improve world financial stabilization, promote growth and encourage the spirit of enterprise, as a way of enhancing the future contribution of financial activities to world welfare.     

创投概念：来自未来 走向未来

随着创业板的推出．创投行业的春天即将到来,这个来自未来的行业,定能从容地走向更远的未来。     

Comparison of farmers’ mental models of the present and the future: A case study of pesticide use

Farmers in developing countries will in the future be confronted with major changes. The ability to cope with these challenges rests on their capability to relate future problems to current behavior. Our approach investigates this capability and consists in comparing mental models of the present and future. The approach moreover enables us to explore whether and how farmers are able to imagine a future differing from the perceived present.Data from previous studies investigating present and future pesticide application were used. In the datasets the mental models of farmers’ livelihood were structured into livelihood capitals (human, health, natural and financial capital), causal relations among the livelihood capitals were derived, and present and future causal relations were compared.The comparison of these causal relations led to six cases, each representing a different degree of dependence of future on present causal relations. The dependence was found to vary among farmers and analyzed livelihood capital. Three types of farmers with differing dependence patterns were identified.The differences found lead to new insights for policy recommendations, depending on farmers focus in their causal relations. We therefore expect that interventions focusing either more on the causes or effects of causal relations will result in a better uptake of knowledge by farmers.     

The future of the elderly

Between now and the 1990s the population of most Western European countries will, on present fertility and mortality rates, show little increase. However, the proportion aged 65 or more will increase; this will be almost entirely due to the 20–25% increase in the numbers aged 75 or more. At the same time there will be pressure to lower the retirement age so as to avoid unemployment among the young. Schemes to encourage early retirement have had little success; without considerable economic growth the conflict between the interests of the elderly and the young will inevitably become more acute.     

The performance of frequent acquirers: Evidence from emerging markets

This study examines the returns to 2340 merger deals conducted by 1122 frequent acquirers in 17 emerging markets, during the period 1985 to June 2008. Our primary findings are as follows. Serial acquirers in emerging countries on average experience a declining pattern in returns with subsequent deals, but the pattern is not strong. However, conditional on successful initial deals, the declining pattern is strong for the majority of countries, is large in terms of the magnitude, and is significant in the multivariate regression analysis. We interpret the results as somewhat supportive of the hubris behavior as a factor in serial acquisitions (Roll, J Business 59, 1986). We also find a stronger declining pattern for more developed markets but no substantial difference between civil and common-law countries; the former might be explained by generally greater and increasing competition for control in more developed markets.     

Competruism: Ideology with a sustainable future

Unless the advanced nations adopt a new socioeconomic order compatible with the technological milieu of the information age, they could face catastrophe in the years just ahead. Free societies should consider shifting from capitalism, with its perilous obsession with consumption, to the competruistic ideology which provides a sustainable future through its focus on conservation. This emerging ideology employs ‘productive efficiency’ as the criterion of success in its mission to maximize the value its free societies add to the global economy.