Developing an abduction-based method for futures research

Futures research is an established field of knowledge with a wealth of methods and techniques. However, foresight, future outlooks and scenarios are, as a rule, based on inductivist or deductivist methods, making looking into the future a form of conservative projecting of past and present probabilities onto the road of development lying ahead of us. Closed past or present outlooks give birth to open futures, but these futures usually are little more than exercises in organizational learning. In this paper we present and develop a method for futures research that is based on abductive logic. Abduction-based futures research approach proceeds from closed, imaginary future states to alternative, open theoretical frameworks or explanations. Unlike inductivists and deductivists believe, this procedure from the unknown to the known is rational, and therefore something that can be systematized and learned. There is a logic of discovery, and what could be a better place to apply and develop it than futures research.     

A community of futurists and the state of the futures field

Criticisms of futures studies ought to be evaluated in comparison with those of other fields. For example, compared to the established disciplines, futures studies is less fragmented and has many positive features. Also, controversies among futurists do not mean that futures studies is not a field. Rather, one hallmark of any field of inquiry is that its members constitute a disputatious community. Moreover, futures studies is unified by interlinked and overlapping networks of communications and influences among futurists, a shared transdisciplinary matrix, and the growth of a futurist canon. The future of futures studies is bright, because it is reasonable to hope that futurists will be able to establish the field in most of the world’s colleges and universities.     

Assessing the future of futures studies in management

It can be observed that a growing number of German corporations are using futures studies and its methods in various ways. This evidence suggests that there is a strong ongoing interest in the field of management in futures studies. To assess how the future of futures studies might look like a Delphi study was carried out. The experts in this Delphi study were asked not only to state how futures studies are used in corporations but also what futures studies need to accomplish in order to find more acceptance.The Delphi study suggests that futures studies will become more important in German corporations. In particular, the improvement of methods like environmental scanning, trend research, trend monitoring, strategic early warning and the scenario technique were suggested. While the results of the Delphi study do not suggest that new methods are needed, implementation remains a major concern.     

Environmental outlooks: How they frame futures and long term uncertainty

Futures studies intend to structure our knowledge and our judgement about the future by handling facts and values in a certain way. In other words, futures studies frame futures. These frames might be powerful, triggering social action and societal transformation, yet they risk to be criticised and provoke scepticism. The environmental field has a long tradition in futures studies: environmental outlooks. Some of these outlooks, e.g. those published by the IPCC are among the most prominent examples of outlooks that provoke scientific, social and political debate, create commotion and provoke action. Part of these discussions deal with how outlooks frame the future and how they handle the uncertainty inevitably linked to framing futures. The way these challenges are dealt with may affect the overall assessment of an environmental outlook. This article attempts to identify the way environmental outlooks frame futures. We do not strive for exhaustiveness, but deliberately restrict to an in-depth analysis of a handful of recent environmental outlooks. We conclude that environmental outlooks reflect a lack of clarity and argumentation upon how they frame futures and how they deal with uncertainty. This epistemological and methodological ambiguity risk to affect the outlooks’ credibility and impact.     

Futures-thinking and identity: Why “Futures Studies” is not a field, discipline, or discourse: a response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

The term we use to describe the study or research of the future or futures is indeed important, and “futures studies” is preferable, although there is considerable dispute as to who and what is involved. Even more important is the far deeper problem of defining the “we” and what “we” in fact do. Futures studies not only considers wickedly complex problems, but it is itself a wicked entity, with many puzzles and contradictions. To illustrate, a taxonomy of 12 types of futurists, first articulated in 1985, is revisited, with special emphasis on the relative handful of Synoptic Generalists, the larger category of Specialized Futurists, the still larger entity of Futurized Specialists, and the largest entity of Closet Futurists who think about futures-often in a leading-edge way-but do not identify at all with futures studies, or are seen as futurists. Most contributors to Futures and other futures journals, as well as listees in the 2000 Futurist Directory, appear to have a secondary “futurist” identity at best. The fuzzy entity of “futures studies” is thus quite unlike any field or discipline, because it is easily entered by specialists who identify with the entity weakly, while many of the most important futures-thinkers are outside the entity. Instead of denying this paradox, the reality should be acknowledged, and an alterative paradigm for “futures studies” should be seriously considered.     

Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development

The transition from a traditional industry-driven economy to a knowledge-based economy requires new concepts and methods for companies to sustain competitive advantage. Here, academia has identified corporate foresight and innovation as key success factors. While, content-wise, the contribution of futures research methods to the innovation process has already been researched, this study strives to explore the status quo of organizational development stages of both concepts. To do so, we developed a portfolio-approach, the so-called ‘Future-Fitness-Portfolio’, which enables companies to qualitatively compare amongst others and identify organizational improvement potential. In addition, we conducted expert interviews to explore future organizational development trends in corporate foresight and innovation management. As our research revealed, five strategic clusters can be identified within the portfolio. Consequently, we propose specific strategies for each individual cluster. We conclude that there will be two main organizational development trends for corporate foresight and innovation management in the future: in traditional industries with conventional business models and long product-life-cycles, companies will follow a different development path than companies in dynamic industries with innovative business models and short product-life-cycles.     

Action oriented futures studies in Hungary

The significant social changes and unstable social-economic processes we are undergoing require more participation and more future oriented grassroots activity both in designing the possible future alternatives and in the actions for the realization of them. Action oriented futures studies and participatory futures studies are in close connection, because orientation towards actions and participation of non-professionals can be strengthened by their mutual interdependence in futures work. This study gives—as examples—summaries of four Hungarian case studies using participatory futures methods: one case from the field of vocational training, two cases concerning regional development, and one about national social-economic development. Our experience shows that such selected groups have evaluated the present issues in their environments as well as the closer and broader regional issues in authentic ways. The future alternatives that were outlined regarding the future of vocational training, acceptable future alternatives of domestic social-economic development, and future living conditions of a smaller settlement and in a larger town, reflected obligation, responsibility and personal interest. That non-professionals lack sufficient future orientation, and do not see possibilities to take serious actions for the future is a read problem. Fortunately, it seems that the future and action oriented attitude of the individuals might be further developed by the use of partnership education.     

On applied science, prediction and contingency

Like any other science, to remain a worthwhile scientific discipline, futures research needs to reflect on itself. It needs to do so from three perspectives: 1) futures research is regarded as an applied science: a closer connection between studying the future in an academic manner and conducting futures research can improve the quality and subsequently the use and impact of futures research, since this will set a cyclic process between theory and practice in motion. An important condition for ensuring this is to increase the amount of empirical research concerning the way futures research is carried out in real life; 2) a reappraisal of predicting the future: although history has shown that predicting the future is difficult, stating that, in the future, predictions will not be a part of futures research is in itself a prediction. In fact, predictions can serve as valuable starting points for discourses on the future; 3) the context of futures research: futures researchers should be more aware of the context in which they do their work. This can significantly enhance the usability of futures research but it also means that futures researchers should become more flexible in applying their methods and processes.     

Incorporating futures research into regional knowledge creation and management

This article focuses on future-oriented knowledge within regional innovation networks. Concrete regional tools and institutional settings aiming to enhance knowledge creation and management in such networks are needed. To enable planning for the future, there is a need for regional visionary capability. Resource-based futures research may make an important contribution in reducing the insecurity that regions face in the turbulent environment. When foresight processes are not absorbed into the regional strategy making processes, ‘black holes of regional strategy making’ come into existence, and future scenarios are built without taking into consideration the path-dependency of a region.This article attempts to reduce the gap between futures research, on the one hand, and regional knowledge and innovation management, on the other hand. It highlights the concept of self-transcending knowledge—the ability to sense the presence of potential. It then introduces a new, systemic model for knowledge creation and management in regional innovation networks. Utilising methods from futures research in creating self-transcending knowledge in a regional knowledge management system is proposed as a fruitful way of enhancing regional visionary capability. The article thus advocates combining approaches and methodologies from futures research with those of knowledge management in a novel way.     

The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What's in a name?

The term we used to describe the study of alternative futures is important. Disciplines and discourses do not emerge from a vacuum but have a history and a cultural context; and their names can hide as much as they reveal. This paper examines such terms as ‘futurology’ and ‘foresight’, and argues that to emphasise plurality and diversity the study of the future is best served by the moniker ‘futures studies’. It suggests that remembering the history of futures discourse is necessary to resolve the crisis of identity and meaning, and frequent fruitless reinvention, of the field. Finally, it presents Sardar's four laws of futures studies: futures studies are wicked (they deal largely with complex, interconnected problems), MAD (emphasise Mutually Assured Diversity), sceptical (question dominant axioms and assumptions) and futureless (bear fruit largely in the present).     

Weak signals analysis,knowledge management theory and systemic socio-cultural transitions

The theoretical goal of this article is to narrow the gap between existing knowledge management theories and theories of weak signal analysis, and partly wild card analysis. The following theories and associated theoretical frameworks are discussed in the article: (1) Environmental Scanning Model, (2) Nonaka's Knowledge Management Theory, (3) Gammelgaard's and Ritter's Knowledge Retrieval Matrix, (4) Boisot's Information Space Model and (5) Vejlgaard's Diamond Shaped Trend Model. These various and nevertheless complementary perspectives are important for the further development of weak signal analysis, knowledge management theory and knowledge management practices in modern organisations as well as for anticipation and decision-making in policy-making arenas. There are still many theoretical and empirical challenges in these fields of scientific knowledge. A general conclusion is that all these frameworks provide interesting new perspectives for modern futures studies as such. Another conclusion is that there are various knowledge management (KM) and scanning frameworks available for implementing weak signal analysis. However, this paper, its observations and conclusions also imply that a more generalised approach to weak signal analysis needs to be developed and that modern KM theories should be used when developing new futures studies/foresight methodologies. According to the theoretical guidelines presented in this article, it is possible to make the suggestion that it would be wise to integrate the latest developments in weak signal analysis into knowledge management theory and vice versa.     

Rethinking knowledge: ‘Islamization’ and the future

The Islamization of knowledge debate is central to Muslim futures, focusing on the nature of Muslim identity, modernity and ways of thinking about present and future Muslim reality. The debate, however, has become interwoven with factors that have marginalized Muslim identity—both for participants and observers. This article views Islamization as a civilizational project of rethinking, taking the Qur'an as the frame of reference. Institutional and conceptual approaches are analysed. The development of new disciplines of knowledge within Islamization is seen as having three parameters—an emphasis on holism, the centrality of risk and uncertainty, and acknowledgment of ignorance. Although Islamization involves critique of western civilization, it may seem rejectionist, but synthesis is the aim. The Islamization discourse is at present mainly theoretical; practice requires time and effort.     

A comparative analysis of the evolution of a taxonomy for best practices: a case for ‘knowledge efficiency’

Taxonomies play an increasingly important role in knowledge management of business best practices, providing a basis by which to index, find and communicate knowledge. However, knowledge continues to evolve over time. As a result, taxonomies must also continue to evolve as organizations innovate and change. Reportedly, firms customize best‐practice taxonomies to meet their unique organization needs. Accordingly, we might expect organizations to generate dissimilar best‐practice taxonomies. However, taxonomies must also reflect the state of knowledge in the area being categorized, and thus are likely to be similar in many ways in different organizations. The purpose of this paper is to study how taxonomies change in different organizations and how they stay the same. In order to explain the parallels in organizational taxonomies, the notion of ‘knowledge artefact efficiency’ (or knowledge efficiency) is suggested to capture the concept that new knowledge is rapidly adopted by many organizations in their knowledge management systems. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The vision phenomenon: Towards a theoretical underpinning of visions of the future and the process of envisioning

Visions of the future and the method of envisioning are common approaches for making claims about and for the future. On the one hand, we can have our own vision, and we also expect certain people (mostly leaders) to have vision. On the other hand, most futures practitioners confirm that a (shared) vision is needed for successful action, and the active development of vision is therefore to be encouraged. However, theory development has been limited and many authors do not go beyond the confirmation that it is important to have or develop (a) vision, mostly in relation to a specific desire for action. Vision appears to be much more a phenomenon (in its original sense as ‘appearance’) than a theory. Hence, what we should expect from a vision theory is a deeper understanding of what vision is, what the added value of the process of visioning could be, and how we have to appreciate and assess (explicit) vision statements. In this contribution, we propose a basic theoretical framework in order to move towards the underpinning of ‘visionary’ approaches.     

Towards an Integral renewal of systems methodology for futures studies

This article considers the use of systems methodology in futures studies and foresight, in relation to Slaughter's call for Integral methodological renewal in futures studies. The diversified methodologies that have developed within the systems practice field over the past 25 years are examined for their potential to address concerns about the field's reduction of interior realities to epiphenomena of systemic processes, articulated by Habermas in the 1970s, and more recently by Wilber from the perspective of his Integral Methodological Pluralism. It is argued, though, that Integral methodology requires more than methodological pluralism: some understanding of the structures of consciousness within which methodologies are conceived and applied is needed. Drawing on the work of Dr. Susanne Cook-Greuter, capacity to understand “system” itself is explored, looking at the way that humans make sense of reality and the stages through which this sense-making develops. It is argued that systems methods and tools used with sufficient practitioner awareness of epistemological biases have an essential role to play in improving the quality of our futures perception and knowledge.     

Future generations thinking

Future generations thinking provides a non-Western reading of space, time, nature and self, contrasting itself with the liberal openness of much of futures studies by asserting a non-negotiatable core. This includes a commitment to the family as a basic unit of analysis; inclusion of all sentient beings; belief in the repeatability of time; an inter-generational approach balancing ancestors and future generations; sustainable social and economic practices; a global focus; a spiritual and collective view towards choice and rationality; and the realization of a global ethics beyond postmodernity. In practice, however, future generations thinking often falls short of its claims. Nevertheless, if future generations thinking can become authentically multi-civilizational, it could create a new history for future generations.     

Wendell Bell: The futurist who would put my grandmother in prison

Wendell Bell made major contributions to futures studies, and to my own understanding of the field, by helping establish the knowledge base of the field; developing the foundational concept “images of the future”; focusing on the ethical dimensions of futures studies; insisting there is a futures field that should be nurtured; and proposing an interesting use for “equal opportunity” and “affirmative action” laws in the US criminal justice system.     

Expert Systems in the UK Life Insurance Industry: Current Status and Future Trends

This paper focuses upon the status and prevalence of expert systems in life insurance in the UK today and reports the results of a widescale survey conducted by the authors. About 90% of the companies who responded are undertaking some form of activity in the field, with 59% expected to have operational systems in use within 3 years. However, a significant minority do not anticipate any increase in expenditure on the technology over the next few years. Other companies, by contrast, view the technology as vital for their futures. The surveys and interviews investigate levels of activity, present and future expenditure, the extent of formal planning for applications, needs, speed of organizational progress, application areas, evaluation criteria, responsibilities for development, satisfaction with shells, and perceived obstacles to progress. For the majority who have already begun development, expert systems are seen to possess a business advantage that outweighs the problems hindering this development.     

Opportunities and challenges of the ecosystem approach

Humanity will continue to struggle with solving its existential problems in the future if command-and-control continues as the predominant approach to environmental and natural resources management. Recognizing the ecosystem perspective, complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory and transdisciplinary collaboration as conceptual opportunities to developing innovative and socially robust solutions is an important step in the right direction. However, because ecosystems are constantly evolving, human co-development has to account for inherent ecological uncertainty. Thus, sustainability depends on a continuous reevaluation of objectives, continuous knowledge generation, stakeholder involvement and a deeper understanding of evolving social and ecological dynamics. These requirements of continuity are hardly met by current approaches consisting of consecutive transdisciplinary projects focused on solving the most urgent problems of mismanagement at hand. Therefore, in this paper we argue for an organizational setup when pursuing an ecosystem approach and outline essential characteristics, inherent opportunities and fundamental challenges. Promising benefits of this approach include tested yet proactive interventions, public credibility, resource efficiency, long-term relationship building, community participation and ultimately sustainable development. Thereby, sustainability is aspired to and supported by a shared vision, organizational co-evolution, an organizational culture promoting innovation and an external autonomy to self-organize.     

期货最优套期保值比率研究评述

套期保值、价格发现、资产配置是期货市场的三大基本职能。而在这三种职能中，最为重要的是套期保值，它是期货市场得以生存和发展的关键动因。在国内外套期保值研究中，最优套期保值比率的估计是套期保值研究最为核心的问题。而运用期货套期保值理论进行实践更是随着套期保值比率估计模型的不断优化、完善而向前发展的，本文通过对国内外套期保值研究相关文献进行分类，整理，综述，梳理出最优套期保值比率估计的研究思路和相关实证技术路线，概括出国内外最优套保比率的研究框架，以此来向国内相关研究学者指出未来的进一步研究方向，同时对国内期货交易主体进行套期保值操作提供了估计模型的选择建议。