Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish national environmental objectives

The aim of the present paper is to present and evaluate a method for encouraging long-term thinking and considerations of a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental objectives that national authorities are responsible for. They are evaluated annually and also in-depth every fourth year. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing a more long-term thinking in the work with the environmental objectives, tested in the in-depth evaluation 2008. An experience was that it is difficult to design a collective scenario work in a case with a wide variety of objectives and with individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies in authorities work. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies competence and thinking at the authorities. Another experience is that despite the difficulties, experts at the authorities did start thinking more in terms of opportunities with futures studies. A general conclusion from the work was that there is an interest and need for futures studies at the authorities in charge of the environmental objectives. The possibly most important conclusion from this project was that the authorities need to build up their own competences in futures studies.     

Use of explorative scenarios in environmental policy-making—Evaluation of policy instruments for management of land, water and the built environment

In order to achieve the Swedish Environmental Quality Objectives (EQOs), three action strategies have been adopted by the Swedish parliament. The strategy addressed in this paper deals with the management of land, water and the built environment. The paper reports on a project involving authorities and researchers in which policy measures required for achieving relevant targets for the strategy were gathered, structured and analysed regarding their potential assuming alternative futures. Measures with proposed policy instruments were qualitatively evaluated against one business as usual scenario and four explorative scenarios varying along two dimensions; level of governance and level of embeddedness. The results show a heavy predominance of administrative policy instruments. This policy strategy depends on a future development where such policy instruments are accepted. In order to achieve the EQOs regardless of future developments, more robust packages of measures including a larger variation in policy instruments need to be developed.     

Emerging pathways for critical futures research: Changing contexts and impacts of social theory

There has always been a critical, emancipatory tradition within futures studies. Although those voices can still be heard, there has been a growing tendency for futures studies to be driven by more utilitarian needs in business and government. Whilst it is positive that futures thinking and research is increasingly valued within corporate and policy-making settings, much of that work appears to lack genuine plurality of worldviews and interests.The paper traces the changing contexts for futures research over the past 25 years. It argues that futures research needs to be viewed as part of the re-politicisation – in the Habermasian sense – of technocratic decision-making. It suggests that there are three particular reasons for revisiting the need for criticality in futures research: the increasing acknowledgement of systemic interrelatedness (ecological, social, economic), a growth in the forward-looking socio-economic paradigm that permeates both business and policy, and the challenge of theory development. Drawing on social theory and futures research, we suggest three pathways for revived critical futures research: socio-technical practices, future-oriented dialectics, and socio-economic imaginaries. As a result, the paper calls for development in futures studies that would dialectically integrate and overcome the dichotomy between instrumentalisation and (critical) theorising that can be currently understood as somewhat antagonistic. In order to find a balance between these antagonistic dimensions, futures research should be more engaged in enabling critique and revealing assumptions and interests.     

Futures studies and the policy sciences

Part of the current evaluation of the work of the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies focuses on the practicality and legitimacy of futures studies in relation to the policy sciences. Two crucial issues are focused on, first the justification and relevance of futures studies methodological approaches and their rigorous application to areas of public policy importance and second, the measures by which futures studies can be evaluated in the light of different time frames. Although there are differences between the policy sciences and futures studies approaches which require further analysis, there nevertheless is a symbiotic relationship between the two. The legitimacy of futures studies as a relevant public policy exercise should not be at issue.     

Futures research and policy formulation : The Spanish experience

The expectation that futures research will contribute to the formulation of policy is increasing, in an environment characterised by growing complexity and uncertainty about the future. In this paper the role of a public institute for futures studies in Spain is briefly described, and the participation of the institute in the policy-making process is discussed. A particular example of its role, in the area of long-term economic policy, is outlined. A methodological aspect of a recently completed study of Spain in the 1980s is presented; this methodology is derived from Interpretative Structural Modelling and from Qualitative Analysis (signed directed graphs) and is used to portray a possible structure of policy objectives.     

Futures studies’ backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning

Achieving a sustainable city requires long-term visions, integration and a system-oriented approach to addressing economic, environmental and social issues. This paper case studies a sustainable city planning project, Göteborg 2050, that uses the backcasting method. Visionary images of a long-term sustainable future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards sustainability. The paper describes a special kind of scenario methodology to build a future model for city development as a planning tool in facilitating a sustainable society. Backcasting in futures studies is widely discussed together with the comparison of three selected backcasting approaches, including Robinson's approach, The Natural Step Framework, and the Sustainable Technology Development approach. The purposes of this paper are to examine and discuss the use of the backcasting method within the Project Göteborg 2050, lessons learned and findings drawn from the experience. The case study shows that backcasting is an appropriate method in developing action plans for achieving urban sustainability. This work can be served as a model for sustainable city planning in Thailand as well as other countries.     

Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries’ emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a) analyzes some key differences in energy technology mixes and primary energy use patterns across these studies; (b) briefly explores the extent and the nature of the societal challenges and policy responses implied; and (c) discusses a number of important implications for the design and scope of future scenario studies. Our review shows that in previous scenario studies the main attention is typically paid to analyzing the impact of well-defined and uniform policy instruments, while fewer studies factor in the role of institutional change in achieving different energy futures. We therefore point towards a number of strategies of integrating issues of transition governance into future scenario analyses, and argue for a closer synthesis of qualitative and quantitative scenario building.     

Dominance,stakeholders’ moves and leadership shifts: New directions for transforming futures

Futures literature invites researchers to investigate stakeholders’ interests, actions and reactions, as well as to introduce an analysis of power and influence in scenario thinking. The purpose of this paper is to assess how the concept of dominance can help to improve scenario building and futures thinking as dominance transforms leadership within action processes. First, we examine power at work at different levels using concepts that relate to dominance and leadership shifts. Secondly, we discuss methodological proposals to implement the concepts of weak and strong dominance in action-based scenarios design and the implications of theses concepts for refining the approach of leadership in futures thinking. We conclude that paying attention to dominance transformations in scenarios is a promising direction to develop stakeholder and leadership analysis in scenario thinking. We suggest further research on the connection between history and futures thinking.     

Thinking practice: Iteration,peer review,and policy analysis in a governmental accounting class

All accounting graduates need strong critical thinking skills to succeed. However, possessing these critical thinking skills upon graduation is particularly crucial for new accountants working in the field of governmental accounting. As public servants at the local, state, and federal levels, they may face both short-term budget constraints and long-term sustainability concerns that cannot be solved with technical skills alone. Due to the proliferation of standards and technical practices across the accounting profession, governmental accounting educators may find it difficult to incorporate critical thinking instruction into their courses. In response to these concerns, this paper presents a project developed for inclusion in a governmental and nonprofit accounting course. Over the course of one semester, students choose a governmental policy topic of interest, conduct background research, evaluate the costs and benefits associated with a policy issue, and prepare recommendations in a written format addressed to the appropriate legislative committee. The project also incorporates review and iterative components that allow students to revise their written work based on feedback from the instructor and classmates. We report results of pre- and post-surveys that suggest that the project offers promise as a vehicle for promoting critical thinking skills among governmental accounting students.     

Thermodynamics, entropy and disorder in futures studies

The conceptual bases of futures studies are constrained by physical reality only to the extent that we construct these according to our best understanding of physical principles. This places a burden on futures practitioners to ensure that engagement and use of these principles is sufficiently robust to protect the plausibility of their work. The second law of thermodynamics is widely recognised as having fundamental implications for the nature of our physical reality. It is also widely misinterpreted, leading to distorted understanding of this reality. Thermodynamic principles are frequently referred to in the futures literature, and are sometimes fundamental to the futures thinking underlying the work. Reflecting the widespread misunderstanding of the second law, usage in the futures literature is usually problematic. This has implications for the value of the work, and also for the credibility of the field. In this article, the problem is demonstrated, and an updated interpretation of the second law is introduced. The origin of the problem is examined from historical and scientific perspectives within the thermodynamics field. The updated interpretation's implications are examined in the context of futures and other transdisciplinary perspectives.     

Extending the perimeter of reflexive debate on futures research: An open framework

Theoretical and methodological crossover between the field of Futures Studies and environmental research has proven instrumental in understanding environmental long-term dynamics. However, the scale taken today by studies and research on such dynamics creates a new challenge for futurists and environmental scientists, as many set patterns of thought or research in both communities will have to be re-examined. For futurists, it will be necessary to go beyond attempts to standardize Futures Studies methods. The alternative is to promote theoretical and methodological reflexion within the rapidly expanding life-size (and not workshop size) fora of scholarly and policy debate. It will also mean overcoming the regime of metonymical hustle whereby once and again, a new school of thought tries to redefine the entire field and reduce it to its own purpose, concepts and toolkit. This paper proposes an “open” framework as a guide for each study on futures to make explicit the specific and fundamental choices it rests on. It is meant as an invitation to step back and consider new beginnings in a workspace open to the widest possible diversity and scale of approaches, as will be necessary if studies on futures are to rise to the challenges of research for sustainable development.     

Always coming home: Towards an archaeology of the future

This paper reports on a research project which facilitated a group of socially committed educators to clarify the nature of their desirable futures and to identify their sources of hope. This work is set within the normative tradition of futures studies and an account is given of how the research process was arrived at and the way in which people responded to this. A participatory and experiential focus group format enabled participants to explore these issues in a fruitful and synergetic way. Key elements of their preferable futures and primary sources of hope are identified and then compared with previous research findings. Finally these concerns are located within wider contemporary debates about revisionary postmodernism, sustainable futures and the utopian tradition.     

Futures research in Czechoslovakia

This is a review of futures studies in a socialist country where long-term forecasting has become institutionalised and serves the centralised policy making and planning. History of the subject, organisation of research and education, work on allocated research projects and on national economic forecasts, as well as its information network, are described.     

Evolution of futures studies

This article discusses the evolution of futures studies. The article starts with an evaluation of the different rival taxonomies and definitions for futures studies, and proceeds to discuss the very concept of paradigm. Are there paradigms in this discipline? If we think there are, what kind of arguments can we use to define those? I argue that there have been two paradigms in the evolution of futures studies so far, and there are signs of emergence of a new one. Both of the existing paradigms have had many rival macro-level methodological approaches, ontological and epistemological branches, and phases of evolution. The first paradigm is the age-old prediction tradition that combines thinking about the future into mystic explanations. This line of thinking bases its argument on the deterministic future and effects of the world of spirits. The second paradigm was basically started in the U.S. military after World War II. This modern line of thinking bases its argument on indeterministic futures, probabilities, aim to control and plan, modelling and systems thinking, and the effects of external trends. The new emerging paradigm may base its line of thinking on disconnecting from the western control based technical thinking, and accepting internal dynamic fluctuations, paradoxes and dialectic thinking.     

What future for health futures in Latin America and the Caribbean?

The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Regional Office of the World Health Organization, is a United Nations agency specializing in providing technical cooperation in health to the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. A futures approach has much to offer in this endeavour, and PAHO is making health futures tools available to its Member States through a variety of activities. The purpose of promoting futures thinking and the application of futures tools is to improve health-policy planning and public health action within the framework of the ‘Health for All’ vision and PAHO's current Strategic and Programmatic Orientations.     

Health trend assessment in Indonesia Futures studies at the provincial level

Health trend assessment studies have been carried out in Indonesia at the national and provincial levels, to provide input into long-term national development plans and to build up the capacity for local health planning in anticipation of decentralization. Provincial health trend assessment studies have been done in five provinces by teams from local health and planning authorities and the local school of public health. These provincial teams have all used background documents and standard procedures developed by a national team and have gone through the same methodological training. Out of the experience have come specific ideas about how trend assessment and similar activities can be strengthened. Among the recommendations are the establishment of national research centres for trend analysis, efforts to improve availability and reliability of relevant data, the training of a cadre of health professionals familiar with futures methods, and continued promotion by WHO and other agencies of long-term health planning and health futures.     

Critical and strategic factors for scenario development and discontinuity tracing

This paper discusses the contribution of critical and strategic factors to three open questions in scenario development and futures research: discontinuities, multi-dimensionality in scenarios, and communicating and learning about change and complexity. It is observed that discontinuities do not necessarily take the form of rapid breaks within one single field. The term “hidden discontinuity” is employed to describe developments that arise from (a) the combination of several trends that may each be unspectacular or (b) gradual, long-term processes. The second open question concerns the tension between the need to work in multi-dimensional spaces while also keeping complexity manageable and selecting “representative” futures. The third problem concerns difficulties to recognize, accept and communicate the above two effects (a) and (b). After discussing these questions, two examples of recent scenario studies are used to illustrate how the identification of critical factors can contribute to identifying meaningful discontinuities and meaningful subsets within the multidimensional space of possibilities, and to learning about the scale and scope dimensions of long-term change processes and the impact of the interplay between different fields.     

Transcending flatland: Implications of Ken Wilber's meta-narrative for futures studies

The Western futures project was originally founded on empiricist notions of prediction, forecasting and control. While other approaches to futures work, other traditions and ways of knowing, have certainly become established, the early framing of Futures Studies arguably occurred out of this broadly reductionist framework—what Wilber has since termed `flatland'. As a result, current ideologies such as: economic growth, globalisation, the pre-eminence accorded to science and technology, and `man's conquest of nature'—were insufficiently problematised. Technology-led views of the future remain influential within Futures Studies, bureaucratic thinking and popular culture. In this view, the future is less open than it might be because it is seen merely as an extension of the present. Critical Futures Studies question such assumptions. The paper explores how the work of this leading transpersonal synthesist can contribute both to a broadening and deepening of Futures Studies and thus help to activate cultural options that are presently obscured.     

Futures studies and management development

Futures studies can make significant contributions to management by improving background information, stimulating new ways of thinking and providing decision inputs. Professor Dror shows how good futures studies, replacing the criterion of subjective certainty by that of objective uncertainty, pinpoint changes in management needed for long-term planning.