To boldly go where no man has gone before: integrating cognitive and physical features in scenario studies

A recent surge in the literature shows that scenario studies are very much back in vogue. The revival of the scenario approach to strategic planning, however, also shows that the method has developed rather one-sidedly both in theory and practice. The dominant trend in scenario thinking is that scenario construction is used primarily as a cognitive exercise, involving mental processes only. In this paper we aim to complement this development by arguing for a more integrated approach, involving both cognitive and “physical” features. Such an approach combines more traditional cognitive elements of scenario studies with, for example, organizational experiments, deliberately made small mistakes, and external corporate ventures. Moreover, we introduce a typology of scenario studies based on two salient assumptions that characterize the field.     

Futures of the sustainable firm: An evolutionary perspective

The response of firms to sustainable development issues needs to pass through a deep re-thinking of the strategic design, encompassing the entire organization, its functions and re-shaping its business model.This contribution proposes a frame of reference for SD oriented organizations, based on three cornerstones: principles, processes and outcomes. Based on an abductive research approach, an analysis is developed on some case studies. Special attention is devoted to the dynamics of SD oriented organizations in order to understand how firms can evolve towards progressively more challenging models of business which make compatible profitability and growth with respect for the environment and – beyond mere respect – positive proactive action to improve the planet resources.     

The emperor has no clothes: Limits to risk modelling

This paper considers the properties of risk measures, primarily value-at-risk (VaR), from both internal and external (regulatory) points of view. It is argued that since market data is endogenous to market behavior, statistical analysis made in times of stability does not provide much guidance in times of crisis. In an extensive survey across data classes and risk models, the empirical properties of current risk forecasting models are found to be lacking in robustness while being excessively volatile. For regulatory use, the VaR measure may give misleading information about risk, and in some cases may actually increase both idiosyncratic and systemic risk.     

I know where I am going An essay of changing culture and value perspectives

This essay is motivated by concerns about an excessive competitive culture of research assessment in British academia. In Oriental cultures, interests are about the person. So often keenly asked questions are the personal ones such as “Who are you?" and “Where do you come from?" My narrative follows the motto of: via veritas vita, bridging Eastern and Western cultures. It is not evidence-based but is a reflective personal account of a journey of engagement in academic research ethos. The reader will appreciate that the reminiscences and reflections may be nostalgic, at times lamenting, but are invariably anecdotal, subjective and experiential. I can do little more than perhaps hold up a small mirror to reflect upon every-day life and values that puzzled me. The closing reflections show my angst regarding the changing culture, the rule of performance evaluation/rating and the micro-political agenda. I hope that this way of sharing personal experiences/perspectives may be of interest to others.     

The horse has bolted: revisiting the market reaction to going concern modifications of audit reports

This paper examines what value is added by an audit report through an investigation of the information content for first‐time going concern modifications (GCMs). Consistent with prior research, we find no evidence of a short‐term market reaction to the public announcement of a first‐time GCM. We document a significant adverse medium‐term market reaction in the 12 months prior to a first‐time GCM announcement, but find no evidence of a persistent market underreaction in the 12 months following the announcement. These results are consistent with an audit opinion fulfilling an attestation function and confirming the deteriorating financial condition of a firm.     

'New security' risks and public educating: the significance of recent evolutionary brain science

The response to 'new security' risks requires significant changes in public behaviour, and the legitimization of unpopular government policies. Public Educating (public information/public education) is one means to achieve this. The need is reflected in initiatives such as environmental education, development education, health promotion, and the Public Understanding of Science. Current strategies are often based on commercial advertising, but mass communications theory does not directly encompass influencing perception , which is necessary to create awareness of the new 'invisible' risks. Recent evolutionary brain science is providing fresh and relevant insights into our species perception deficits, which can inform a more effective approach to Public Educating. This paper first places risk within the context of the post-Cold War 'global security' agenda. It proposes a theoretical framework - 'brain lag' - to explain perceptual deficits in relation to this agenda, which draws on theories of information, adaptation and denial, and an understanding of the human senses including time-scale-latency. Fundamental areas of evolutionary perception are proposed which are relevant across the agenda: fear and disgust, number perception, and cheating. This leads to a core concept for Public Educating about new security risks, 'enhanced difference', and a set of hypotheses that can be applied to text or image.     

Art: Futures of the past

This essay makes a demand: it calls for a divorce between art and culture in order to reaffirm a future for art. It asks whether in a scenario in which political culture has surrendered to cultural politics, can art reaffirm and reconfigure itself as a site of exuberance, wonder, vitality, affect, memory and learning, and create a place of ethical and critical resistance?     

Futures: A question of values-consciousness-choices

How important is the quality of values, worldviews, consciousness and choices in the theory and praxis of futures studies and the creation of possible futures? This paper is based on an unpublished Ph.D. Thesis (that is now accessible on the ADT database on the internet), a case study about the evolution of values, consciousness and choices in 12 Australian women's lives. It contains a summary of the impact of the Women's Liberation Movement on these women's values and consciousness, their current values and consciousness, as well as some of their hopes and concerns for the future. Many of the value priorities these women share stand in remarkable contrast to mainstream patriarchal ethics. These women's values also find themselves in uneasy relation to patriarchal worldviews, future visions and futures studies and in important ways surpass them. Based on my research, I propose questions and suggestions in regards to futures studies.     

资产证券化：我国资本市场的发展方向

资产证券化在20世纪70年代产生后，经过近40年的发展，目前已经成为全球发展最为迅速的金融产品。本文从资产证券化的内涵出发，通过研究资产证券化发展的国际经验，结合我国的实际情况，对阻碍我国资产证券化发展的原因进行了探讨，并从发行者、投资者以及中介机构等角度分析了我国发展资产证券化产品的必然性。     

证券、期货犯罪防范体系构建探析——以股指期货交易为切入点

股指期货是连接证券市场和期货市场的纽带,为证券市场提供了有效的避险工具。通过对股指期货犯罪行为的分析,笔者认为,操纵股指期货的行为必须纳入刑法规制范畴,同时还应当警惕并防范股指期货挂牌交易后因设计缺陷所产生的"新型老鼠仓"行为。并且单独罪名无法有效防止犯罪行为发生,应当建立综合性证券、期货犯罪防范体系。     

Index Futures Trading and Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from the Introduction of Mid Cap 400 Index Futures

The MidCap 400 stock index is used to provide new evidence on the relation between stock index futures trading and stock return volatility. The study documents a significant decrease in return volatility and systematic risk, and a significant increase in trading volume for the MidCap 400 stocks after the introduction of the MidCap index. A control sample of medium-capitalization stocks, however, exhibits similar contemporaneous changes in these measures. The MidCap stocks and the control stocks also experience a significant decrease in volatility and an increase in volume after the introduction of MidCap 400 index futures. Thus, the study finds no difference in the behavior of the MidCap 400 stocks and the control stocks and no evidence of a relation between index futures trading and volatility in the stock market.     

基于CSAD的期货市场羊群效应实证分析——以CZCE棉花期货为例

本文运用横截丽绝对偏离度(CSAD)方法对CZCE棉花期货市场进行了实证研究,研究结果表明,我国棉花期货市场不存在明显的"羊群效应".     

基于CSAD的期货市场羊群效应实证分析——以CZCE棉花期货为例

本文运用横截面绝对偏离度(CSAD)方法对CZCE棉花期货市场进行了实证研究,研究结果表明,我国棉花期货市场不存在明显的"羊群效应"。     

Futures dossier: Electronic information—impact of the database

Even in the high growth world of information technology, the growth in the use of electronic information services is startling. In 1978 there were 300 data-bases available in public services; by 1983 there were 2 000. The LINK report on database services in 1984¹ forecasts growth in US user expenditures for online database services from $1224 million in 1983 to $3 462 million in 1988. While this is small compared with the total revenues of the publishing industry, nevertheless it represents a significant trend in what people are willing to pay for information.     

Valuation of American Futures Options: Theory and Empirical Tests

This paper reviews the theory of futures option pricing and tests the valuation principles on transaction prices from the S&P 500 equity futures option market. The American futures option valuation equations are shown to generate mispricing errors which are systematically related to the degree the option is in-the-money and to the option's time to expiration. The models are also shown to generate abnormal risk-adjusted rates of return after transaction costs. The joint hypothesis that the American futures option pricing models are correctly specified and that the S&P 500 futures option market is efficient is refuted, at least for the sample period January 28, 1983 through December 30, 1983.     

Delays in reporting price-sensitive information: The case of going concern

Regulators require firms to disclose all price-sensitive information at the earliest possible date. The going-concern opinion constitutes a fundamental uncertainty for the firm and thus is likely to be of a price-sensitive nature. This paper explores whether going-concern uncertainty disclosures are price sensitive in the London market, and then tests whether managements report such audit report information to investors on a timely basis. We capitalize on a London Stock Exchange regulatory loophole which, in effect, allows financially-distressed firms to choose either to report a forthcoming going-concern at the preliminary results announcement stage, or to delay this crucial information to their annual report release. In line with the regulatory requirements, we expect that firms with more price-sensitive, i.e., more serious, adverse news will disclose their forthcoming going-concern opinion at the earliest stage i.e., in their preliminary announcement, rather than delay to their annual report.     

Extreme Correlation of Stock and Bond Futures Markets: International Evidence

This study explores time‐varying extreme correlation of stock–bond futures markets in three major developed countries. In the United States and the United Kingdom, there is evidence of positive extreme stock–bond correlation when both futures markets are extremely bullish or bearish. In Germany, stock–bond futures extreme correlation is negative, suggesting the most diversification potentials of bond futures when German stock index futures market plunges. Macroeconomic news, the business cycle, and the stock market uncertainty all significantly affect the median stock–bond futures correlation. However, only the stock market uncertainty still significantly affects the extreme stock–bond futures correlation when the stock market is extremely bearish.