Scenario planning interventions in organizations: An analysis of the causes of success and failure

This paper presents a case analysis of a successful scenario intervention in an organization. This intervention is compared and contrasted with an unsuccessful one reported in Hodgkinson and Wright [Confronting strategic inertia in a top management team: learning from failure, Organization Studies 23 (2002)949-977]. We demonstrate that analysis of the answers given by workshop participants in a pre-intervention interview can be helpful in determining the receptiveness of an organization to a subsequent scenario intervention. We theorize that strategic inertia-characterized by coping patterns of bolstering failing strategy, procrastination (over a strategic dilemma) and buck-passing (the responsibility for the dilemma's resolution), can be caused by the psychological attenuation of the perceived level of environmental threat to the organization, culminating in unconflicted adherence to the currently followed strategy. We contend that the expression of such coping behaviour is antithetical to a subsequent successful scenario exercise since, if the exercise fails to identify an unconflicted strategic alternative, the sharp focus of the scenarios on futures unfavourable to business-as-usual strategy will re-activate the cognitive stress-reduction mechanisms. Strategic inertia will thus be reinforced. We conclude with a review of the implications of our diagnosis for reflective practitioners.Our paper is divided into four sections. In Section 1, we overview writings on inertia in strategic decision making. We pay especial attention to identifying potential causes of inertia. Next, we present Janis and Mann's [Decision Making, Free Press, New York, 1979] views of the psychological processes invoked by conflicted decisions and analyse the relevance of this laboratory-based theory to provide a psychological explanation of strategic inertia. Finally, we briefly describe the scenario intervention process and argue that it contains the potential to overcome strategic inertia. In Section 2, we review an already-published study of an unsuccessful scenario planning intervention, which illustrates the operation of components of Janis and Mann's model. Next, in Section 3, we focus on our own case investigation of a successful scenario planning intervention. The early part of this section documents the “success”, whilst the latter part analyses the causes of the success—again using the components of Janis and Mann's model. We conclude in Section 4, where we compare and contrast the application of Janis and Mann's model to both cases and we demonstrate that application of the model to pre-intervention interview data can aid the practitioner determine, at the outset, whether or not the organizational context will be receptive to the intervention.     

To boldly go where no man has gone before: integrating cognitive and physical features in scenario studies

A recent surge in the literature shows that scenario studies are very much back in vogue. The revival of the scenario approach to strategic planning, however, also shows that the method has developed rather one-sidedly both in theory and practice. The dominant trend in scenario thinking is that scenario construction is used primarily as a cognitive exercise, involving mental processes only. In this paper we aim to complement this development by arguing for a more integrated approach, involving both cognitive and “physical” features. Such an approach combines more traditional cognitive elements of scenario studies with, for example, organizational experiments, deliberately made small mistakes, and external corporate ventures. Moreover, we introduce a typology of scenario studies based on two salient assumptions that characterize the field.     

Creating the future: Goal-oriented Scenario Planning

Do current scenario planning techniques ignore an organizations ability to create its future? Social constructionists and organizational theorists have indicated that the future of an organization can be enacted by its constituents. Yet it is apparent that scenario planning techniques, used by organizations to plan for their future, tend to emphasize a future that the organization must react to instead of create. By emphasizing a future that the organizations must react to, it may ignore and completely miss the opportunity it has to create or enact the future it wants to have.Scenario planning, however, can evolve to support a creative foresight and approach to the future by recognizing the power behind enactment theory and applying a goal-oriented approach to the scenario planning process. Using goal-oriented scenario planning an organization can match the world it wants with the world it expects to see.     

Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight

We discuss the changes occurring in the field of organizational foresight. The analysis results from viewing foresight from two different perspectives: as centered on the future or on the present; as macroscopic analysis or microscopic practice. The combination of these factors results in four different modes of organizational foresight: strategic planning, visioning, scenario thinking and planned emergence. These different perspectives are examined. We contribute to the literature by presenting foresight as a complex process, amenable to different understandings. Foresight is often portrayed as a technical and analytic process. We discuss it as a human process permeated by a dialectic between the need to know and the fear of knowing.     

Scenarios to challenge strategic paradigms: Lessons from 2025

As a process looking for alternative visions of environment and corporate futures, scenario planning challenges strategic paradigms. In that way, scenario planning is dealing with the different beliefs of the many actors who make the organization and its global and business environments. Among these beliefs, emerging ideologies are one of the main shaping factors for the construction of new visions of corporate environment and corporate futures. To analyse the interaction between scenario planning and emerging ideologies, this paper will first propose a conceptual framework based on the dynamics of strategic paradigms. Second, it will discuss Electricité de France 2025 scenarios longitudinal case study in the context of the diffusion process of the French so called prospective approach to show interests and traps of scenario planning to manage paradigm shifts.     

Perceptions of the relationship between scenario planning and firm performance: A qualitative study

This paper presents research findings from the application of scenario planning in multinational firms that operate in competitive industries. We use exclusive and not publicly available data to investigate the link between scenario planning and firm performance from a qualitative perspective. The focus was primarily on firms that had real-life experiences with this strategic tool. Our research suggests that scenario planning is interwoven in how strategy is formulated and that it has a major influence on decisions taken by management. We also found that none of the firms reported formal efforts of assessing the success rate of scenario planning. Participants report that this is due to difficulties in measuring qualitative and quantitative outcomes and because standardized assessment tools are not readily available for this kind of strategic intervention. Overall, participants generally regarded scenario planning as an effective intervention with a positive contribution to the firms’ performance. When pressed for more detail, participants revealed that scenario planning techniques were useful in exploring the business environment and future risks, isolating trends, understanding interdependent forces, and considering the implications of strategic decision-making.     

企业绩效测评标准选择——困惑、对策与启示

文章从绩效测评标准选择演进的脉络出发,分类简述绩效测评标准选择存在的诸多困惑,并认为造成这种状况的原因是绩效本身包含了真实绩效、可测绩效、测评绩效三个层次,测评过程总是会产生认识和技术误差,同时技术上符合独立性、完备性、预测性和适应性的理想标准很难找到。文章尝试基于组织学习理论提出具有系统性、动态性、认知性和近似性的多环绩效测评标准选择方法。最后给出对我国企业绩效测评标准选择制度的启示。     

Calm in the storm: Simulating the management of organizational co-evolution

Whilst past research has explored the notion of co-evolution and ambidexterity in organizations, few have drawn from theoretical insights made in other domains of study such as biology and cultural evolution. This paper seeks to make a contribution towards this project, by developing an agent-based simulation model of multi-level co-evolution within an organization, with a view towards shedding new light on organizational adaptation. Unlike previous simulation studies of this nature, this study focuses on the co-evolution of behaviour at multiple-levels between interacting individuals, based on the evolutionary mechanisms of variation, selection and retention. In this way it is seen that incremental, punctuated and chaotic patterns of aggregate organizational behaviour arise from the same core building blocks of variation–selection–retention. The findings from this study point to the need for management control in ambidextrous organizations both during times of stability AND transformational change. In the latter case, this control was not that of an overpowering management suppressing variations and innovation from within the organization. Rather it might be interpreted as the voice of calm in the chaos of the storm, providing direction to the many actors within the organization and walking them along the thin line between inaction and chaos.     

Constructing a knowledge‐based system to aid scenario‐based strategic planning: an application to the European airline industry

This paper explores the use of scenario planning and the design of a knowledge‐based system in strategic decision making, in the context of the European airline industry. Several innovative strategies were derived, as well as other key recommendations based on sound strategic reasoning, and participants testified to the effectiveness of the approach in stretching their thinking. The requirement to draft strategies as expert system rules, with reasons, was useful in clarifying thinking and achieving group consensus. This methodology, therefore, aids effectiveness of the scenario planning process itself, while providing a dynamic, accessible means of storing the resulting strategic thinking. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Endowing cognitive mapping with computational properties for strategic analysis

A number of cognitive, causal mapping and simulation techniques exist for dealing with the growing importance of environmental uncertainty. After briefly commenting on some of the more salient extant approaches, this paper offers a new one for consideration by the scenario planning community. Comprehensive Situation Mapping (CSM) is a powerful analytical tool combined with a process for framing and debating strategic situations. The CSM approach combines the problem framing features of causal mapping with a dialectical inquiry process patterned after Churchman's. Like the better approaches to planning through cognitive mapping, it facilitates the “backward analysis” of the underlying strategic assumptions. Its novelty is that it also allows the “forward analysis” of a situation by computing the potential change scenarios. Initially developed for manual application, the principles of CSM were originally tested in appropriate case studies. The contribution of the present paper is to present its theory and point out that its future potential is even greater: in concluding we indicate that, by using recent distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) technology, a fully computerized and interactive prototype is now being set up for commercial applications.     

Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration

Policy integration has become a high-priority objective for urban planning and management. At the same time, the transportation and urban planning fields have increasingly employed scenario planning approaches, not only to develop long-term strategy, but also—potentially—to strengthen organizational networks and encourage collaborative action. Yet these latter supposed outcomes of scenario planning remain under-theorized and largely untested. In this study, we propose a methodology, based on established theories of collaboration, to test the ability of a particular type of scenario planning to encourage collaboration between participants. We demonstrate the approach using a scenario planning process undertaken within the transportation and urban planning community in Portugal. The pre-/post-test experimental design uses a survey designed to assess participants’ propensity for future collaboration by measuring change in individuals’ perceptions and understandings. The results suggest that the process likely modestly increased participants’ propensity to collaborate, primarily by strengthening inter-agency networks. The effects on participants’ views and understanding remain inconclusive. We suggest that specific challenges in applying this specific scenario planning approach to public sector contexts may limit the method's potential in achieving inter-organizational collaboration. Nonetheless, only more widespread efforts to formally test the scenario planning rhetoric will reveal the true impacts on organization change.     

Changing organizational culture with scenario planning

This paper explores scenario planning as a tool to help change organizational culture. Changing the culture of the organization to adapt to changes in the environment is an important concern for most organizations—yet this change is often reactive. The authors present scenario planning as a proactive tool for developing alternative, possible cultures as an initial step toward effecting change. The following describes and clarifies the relationships between scenario planning and the cultural framework, along with research suggestions to determine the validity of this argument.     

Participative landscape planning in rural areas: A case study from Novodvorsko, Žehušicko,Czech Republic

According to the European Landscape Convention, landscape quality objectives should be defined for assessed landscapes as a part of landscape policies. The pilot study for Novodvorsko and Žehušicko in Central Bohemia is focused on sustainable landscape development with regard to the economic development, but also on the protection of natural and socio-cultural landscape qualities. The aim of this study is to investigate the implementation of the European Landscape Convention at the local level. The landscape quality objective should be a long-term strategic vision for making a landscape policy that could be used as a basis for strategic landscape planning documents. First, a landscape diagnosis was proposed. Then, four different scenarios for landscape development were assessed (integration, segregation, exploitation, and abandonment scenario). Finally, a landscape quality objective was developed. All process was closely connected with participative landscape planning; local stakeholders were involved to the whole process.     

The fruitful flaws of strategy metaphors

The business world is rife with metaphors these days, as managers look to other disciplines for insights into their own challenges. And metaphors can--despite their somewhat flaky image--be powerful catalysts for generating new business strategies. But metaphors are often improperly used, their potential left unrealized. We tend to look for reassuring parallels in business metaphors instead of troubling differences, the author contends. In fact, using metaphors to come up with new strategic perspectives begins to work only when the metaphors themselves don't work, or at least don't seem to. Take the following case in point. An insurance company's corporate headquarters put together a team of experts to discuss ways the firm might respond to the challenges of conducting business via the Internet. Once the team drafted a master plan, the idea was that it would be promulgated to the individual agents and offices of this widely dispersed organization. In a meeting with the company's top managers, the author talked about Charles Darwin's conceptual breakthrough in formulating the principles of evolution. As his overview of Darwin's theories about variation and natural selection gave way to questions, a heretical notion took shape: Those far-flung agents' offices, instead of being strategic liabilities in a suddenly virtual age, might instead be the mechanism for achieving an incremental but powerful corporate transformation in response to the changing business environment. But it was only when the evolutionary metaphor began to break down--when the elements of Darwin's theory clearly were at odds with the besieged insurance company's situation--that real strategic insight occurred. This anecdote offers, in a compressed form, an example of how the process of using metaphors can play out and what managers can learn from it.     

Scenario projects in Japanese government: Strategic approaches for overcoming psychological and institutional barriers

Scenario planning in the public sector has significant differences from scenario planning in the corporate world. Scenario planning in the government not only tends to be focused on issues of higher complexity and significance to public policy, but also in comparison to people in the private business, public officials have fundamental psychological and institutional constraints in their scenario thinking. These constraints make it difficult for them to contemplate multiple ‘untidy’ futures and imagine the possibility of policy failure: skills which are essential for successful scenario projects. Based on specific characteristics of scenario planning in the Japanese government, this paper contributes on better understanding the challenges and strategic solutions in providing more successful scenario planning in the public sector. Specifically, this paper argues that possible solutions in overcoming these constraints may be to shake public bureaucrats out of their thinking by providing free and open venues of conversation and more importantly through ‘derailment’ exercises.     

Performance measurement systems and their relation to strategic learning: A case study in a software-developing organization

Authors have often suggested that expert systems for measuring and assessing intangible and tangible resources fulfill strategic learning purposes. This role requires further theoretical discussion and empirical investigation since strategic learning does not automatically result from the implementation of performance measurement systems (PMS). PMS can be used for internal or external control purposes in addition their development and usage can lead to strategic learning processes. Depending on how PMS are conceptualized they can be related to different modes of learning. Thus, this article links different types of PMS enactment with specific modes of learning. Strategic learning is thereby defined as specific mode within the organizational learning approach by Bateson (1972) and Argyris and Schön (1978). Orlikowski's work on technologies (2000) provides a framework for the different types of PMS enactment. A strategic learning process initiated by the development of PMS is illustrated through a case study in the software development industry.     

Organizing strategic foresight: A contextual practice of ‘way finding’

Strategic foresight as a derived outcome of corporate foresight exercises has led to the dominant discourse on strategic foresight as an episodic intervention encompassing a proliferation of organizational foresight methodologies. We argue that such an approach is flawed, consigning strategic foresight to a narrow function in a planning perspective. To move the field into more fertile pastures for research, we draw on the practice theoretical lens to provide an alternative viewpoint on strategic foresight as a bundle of everyday organizing practices. In keeping with the practice approach to strategic foresight, we delineate strategic foresight as a continuous and contextual practice of ‘wayfinding’, that manifest in everyday situated organizing. We offer an integrating framework that contributes to the ongoing discussions about alternative approaches to theorizing strategic foresight.     

Creativity and dysfunction in strategic processes: The case of scenario planning

This paper attempts to open up a new line of enquiry into the dysfunctions of creativity within strategic processes. Generally, the impact and results of introducing creativity (and innovation) into organisational life are perceived to be wholesome and beneficial. But recent research in the area of organisational psychology has documented a ‘dark’ side to its introduction, e.g., low employee morale, stress, theft, sabotage, destructive conflict. Learning from this work and shifting the domain to strategic management, this paper focuses on scenario planning—a strategy process widely regarded by participants and facilitators as creative and innovative in structure, content and output. First, the creative credentials of the process are established with reference to the literature and definitions from the creative and cultural industries. Second, the process is deconstructed into activities and each is examined for the extent of its embedded creativity. Third, informed by case evidence, four dysfunctions of the scenario planning process are conjectured: creativity layered on fantasy; heightened expectations and confusion; pride and passion; and creativity leading to excess. The paper concludes by suggesting four options for handling these potential dysfunctional effects and, in the light of the dialogue presented, re-interprets the definition of scenario planning presented earlier in the text.     

Metropolitan vision making – using backcasting as a strategic learning process to shape metropolitan futures

The need for new forward-looking tools in urban planning is immense: new functional relations and structures are now stretching beyond our capacity to ‘rationally’ capture modern metropolitan spaces (Neumann & Hull, 2009). At the same time, cities struggle to find tools to help manage their long-term transition towards a low-carbon, resource-smart economy.In 2006–2007, the municipalities in the Helsinki metropolitan region organised an international competition for ideas titled “Greater Helsinki Vision 2050.” It drew a good number of entries in the competition stage and later helped bring together the awarded participants with local planning professionals and citizens.This paper explores the process behind the vision-making exercise and evaluates its success in providing new tools for the long-term transition to a low-carbon, resource-smart Helsinki metropolitan region. The theoretical framework used in this paper is ‘incrementalism with perspective’ (Ganser, Siebel & Sieverts, 1993) and its ideas on using long-term visions in the integration and coordination of incremental activities in various institutions. We perceive the backcasting scenario method (Dreborg, 1996) as a tool for implementing this approach and hence interpret the case example’s results through the framework of this method.The Greater Helsinki Vision 2050 competition was an example of a vision-oriented planning process that provided new tools for bringing the ‘unmanageable’ metropolitan region within the scope of the manageable. The backcasting approach was deployed as a tool for emancipating stakeholders to imagine alternative futures for metropolitan spaces.The backcasting scenario method should be considered a viable tool when managing vision-oriented planning processes: longer than usual time horizons help initiate strategic learning among stakeholders. However, in addition to civil servants, citizens and other stakeholders should be widely engaged in order to secure sustainable results.