The Role of Finance and Private Investment in Developing Sustainable Cities

Three trends will drive urban investment, development, and entrepreneurship in the next two decades. The first is urbanization; over the next twenty years, the number of people living in cities will double. Second, shared resources like clean water, clean air, energy, and places to put solid waste are already scarce, and urbanization will only exacerbate shortages. Third, almost no local or national government can mobilize both the capital and the political consensus to make investments in the infrastructure that will lead to more effective use of these resources. This article argues that there is a largely unrecognized opportunity for the private sector to engage in selective investments that can help cities limit the effects of these trends. Investors and entrepreneurs can make money in ways that achieve more productive use of these scarce “public goods;” and by so doing, they can make cities more economically competitive as well as more livable. In making his argument, the author provides a tour of three “new” Asian cities, two of which are held up as models for future development.     

An international study of internal audit function quality

We investigate organisational and environmental factors that influence firms’ incentives to develop high-quality internal audit functions (IAFs) by using a unique international sample formed by matching proprietary data from a global internal auditor survey with public data obtained from Worldscope. Concerning organisational factors, we find that a positive relationship exists between IAF quality and firm complexity and confirm that complex firms have a higher demand for monitoring and advising and, therefore, a greater need for formal controls. In addition, IAF quality is positively related to board monitoring and audit committee diligence but negatively associated with CEO power, which suggests that IAF quality is influenced by other key players in corporate governance. Regarding environmental factors, we document that IAF quality is positively associated with industry competition, which implies that a firm’s incentive for a high-quality IAF is enhanced when confronted with greater environmental uncertainty. Furthermore, IAF quality has a significantly positive relationship with our self-constructed index of IAF requirements included in national corporate governance codes, which indicates that strong home-country corporate governance codes play a role in fostering IAF development.     

Factors that influence the perceived use of the internal audit function's work by executive management and audit committee

The internal audit function (IAF) is an important component of high-quality corporate governance. We study how the head of internal audit perceives the executive management team and the audit committee to rely on the IAF's work. It is not obvious from prior work or professional anecdotes whether the IAF satisfies the needs of both groups. If multiple factors influence the IAF's work, chief audit executives (CAEs) may find themselves in a situation with competing demands, which could then compromise quality for all stakeholders. Based on a unique dataset from CAEs, two logistic regression models identify factors that influence the degree to which IAF's results are perceived as being used by both executive management and the audit committee. The results show the existence of various factors that are relevant either to both groups (e.g., strategic project reports and IAF quality) or to only one (e.g., only audit committees are interested in risk management reports while only executive management teams are interested in internal control reports), depending on whether the IAF focuses on assurance or consulting work.     

2010年1季度国际金融市场运行综述

一季度，受美国经济复苏的步伐较为稳固及希腊主权债务问题令投资者的避险需求上升等因素影响，美元对其他主要货币走强。美元、英镑短期利率上升，欧元、日元短期利率下降。美国中长期国债收益率呈“W”型走势，英国和德国中长期国债收益率下降，而日本中长期国债收益率上升。主要股指探底回升。     

Internal Audit Quality and Financial Reporting Quality: The Joint Importance of Independence and Competence

In light of the growing importance of internal audit functions (IAF) and the limited archival evidence on internal audit quality, we examine an interactive model of IAF quality (comprised of competence and independence) to better understand the determinants of IAF effectiveness as a financial reporting monitor. Our tests support the hypothesis that the joint presence of competence and independence is a necessary antecedent to effective IAF financial reporting monitoring. In sum, our results show that, the answer to “what is the effect of internal audit competence (independence) on financial reporting quality?” is “it depends on the independence (competence) of the internal auditor.” Our study extends the understanding of IAF quality determinants in the realm of financial reporting as it relates to ongoing discussions by researchers, standard setters, regulators, and practitioners.     

Internal Audit Outsourcing: A Literature Synthesis and Future Directions

The internal audit function (IAF), which has traditionally been an in‐house function, is increasingly being outsourced to outside consultants, in line with global trends for other services. This study synthesises research on the outsourcing and co‐sourcing of internal audit services over the last three decades, and suggests directions for future research. It draws from professional and academic literature to highlight the nature of organisations that outsource the IAF, and the main reasons behind the outsourcing decision. The study further examines the financial impact of outsourcing, as well as its impact on financial reporting, internal audit quality and auditors’ independence. The study shows widespread adoption of outsourcing of internal auditing services, largely due to the perceived cost benefits as well as perceived improved access to specialised internal auditing resources. There are mixed findings on the impact of outsourcing of internal auditing services on quality, cost, independence and availability of resources. This study contributes to internal and external audit, corporate governance and outsourcing literature in general, by synthesising the existing research and providing a roadmap with which to understand the origins, development, present state and impact of outsourcing of internal auditing.     

Factors associated with internal audit function involvement with XBRL implementation in public companies: An international study

We examine the relationships of national legal system, company size, and corporate governance quality with internal audit function (IAF) involvement with eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) implementation in public companies. Our data source is The Institute of Internal Auditors' Global Internal Audit Common Body of Knowledge (CBOK) database, from which we extract responses from 692 chief audit executives (CAEs) for our investigation. We find evidence of differential effects of company size on IAF involvement with XBRL implementation, depending on the national legal system. In civil law countries, IAFs of small companies have significantly higher levels of XBRL involvement than do IAFs of large companies, whereas, in common law countries, IAFs of large companies have higher levels of involvement than do those of small companies. Finally, we find evidence that corporate governance quality is positively associated with IAF involvement with XBRL implementation.     

The Relevance of Target Accounting Quality to the Long-Term Success of Cross-Border Mergers

Abstract:  We investigate a sample of cross-border mergers involving US firms that acquired foreign targets between 1985 and 1995. Our general interest is in the long-term success of the acquisitions, measured by the post-merger abnormal returns to the US acquirers. Our primary focus is the relationship between the quality of the foreign target's accounting disclosures and the acquisition's long-term success. Employing a procedure recommended by Lyon et al. (1999) , we find that US acquirers in cross-border mergers experience significantly negative long-term abnormal returns post-merger. These returns also are significantly more negative than those realized by a matched sample of US acquirers that acquired US targets. To investigate the potential association between the US acquirers' post-acquisition returns and target firms' accounting disclosures, we classify the merger transactions by target firm home country. We define variables to reflect the quality of accounting disclosures and control for other important country-specific features. The results reveal that post-merger abnormal returns are less negative for acquirers of targets based in countries where accounting data is less value relevant. This may be due to a higher cost of capital for target firms in these countries, resulting in a built-in discount in the pricing of targets. An examination of the premiums paid in a subset of 79 cross-border mergers reveals evidence consistent with this contention: premiums are lower for target firms based in countries where accounting data is less value relevant. These results suggest that shareholders of targets from such countries pay a price for their country's institutional framework that makes accounting information less value relevant.     

Consumption and Saving Behaviour: Modelling Recent Trends

This paper illustrates recent trends in household consumption and personal savings in the UK and the US and discusses some theoretical models that can be used to interpret them. The trends in these two countries are interesting for several reasons. The decline in personal saving rates in the US during the 1980s is an unresolved puzzle. The corresponding variable in the UK has undergone large fluctuations, as have several other variables ranging from projected demographic trends to female labour supply. This paper stresses the need to analyse individual data to shed some light on these aggregate trends. It also stresses the need to have a sound structural model to interpret observed patterns in the data. The theoretical framework discussed throughout the paper is the life-cycle model, which views consumption and saving decisions as part of a dynamic optimisation process. The development of the model and the current research agenda and ways that it can be enriched with various degrees of sophistication are discussed. Particular attention is devoted to the discussion of the most recent developments. JEL classification Dl, E21.     

A pairs trading strategy based on linear state space models and the Kalman filter

Among many strategies for financial trading, pairs trading has played an important role in practical and academic frameworks. Loosely speaking, it involves a statistical arbitrage tool for identifying and exploiting the inefficiencies of two long-term, related financial assets. When a significant deviation from this equilibrium is observed, a profit might result. In this paper, we propose a pairs trading strategy entirely based on linear state space models designed for modelling the spread formed with a pair of assets. Once an adequate state space model for the spread is estimated, we use the Kalman filter to calculate conditional probabilities that the spread will return to its long-term mean. The strategy is activated upon large values of these conditional probabilities: the spread is bought or sold accordingly. Two applications with real data from the US and Brazilian markets are offered, and even though they probably rely on limited evidence, they already indicate that a very basic portfolio consisting of a sole spread outperforms some of the main market benchmarks.     

Estimation of deficiency risk and prioritization of information security controls: A data-centric approach

Risk of unauthorized disclosure or modification of corporate data can impact in different ways, including affecting operations, the public image and/or the firm's legal/compliance exposure. While management views risk along these dimensions, the information technology function (ITF) typically views risk from an IT infrastructure compromise viewpoint, and this drives the establishment of IT security controls. It is oftentimes difficult for the internal audit function (IAF) to assess control deficiency risk (CDR) in the area of information security, as well as estimate the importance of each in-place security control. Using a design science approach, we propose the Operational, Public image, Legal (OPL) model and method to classify the security criticality of the organization's data along three dimensions. Through an empirical study, we demonstrate how the OPL method allows for a quantitative estimation of the importance of in-place security controls as well as the CDR of missing controls. This information provides guidance on strategies for testing in-place controls during audit, as well as for determining which controls may need to be incrementally added.     

The dividend–price ratio does predict dividend growth: International evidence

Unpredictable dividend growth by the dividend–price ratio is considered a ‘stylized fact’ in post war US data. Using long-term annual data from the US and three European countries, we revisit this stylized fact, and we also report results on return predictability. We make two main contributions. First, we document that for the US, results for long-horizon predictability are crucially dependent on whether returns and dividend growth are measured in nominal or real terms, and this difference is due to long-term inflation being strongly negatively predictable by the dividend–price ratio. The impact of inflation is to reinforce real return predictability and to reduce – or change direction of – real dividend growth predictability. This provides an explanation for the strong predictability of long-horizon real returns in the ‘right’ direction, and the strong predictability of long-horizon real dividend growth in the ‘wrong’ direction, that we see in US post war data. Second, we find that predictability patterns in three European stock markets are in many ways different from what characterize the US stock market. In particular, in Sweden and Denmark dividend growth is strongly predictable by the dividend–price ratio in the ‘right’ direction while returns are not predictable. The results for the UK are mixed. Our results are robust to a number of changes in the modeling framework. We discuss the results for dividend growth predictability in terms of the ‘dividend smoothing hypothesis’.     

The importance of being fair: An analysis of IFRS regulation and practice – a Comment

This paper examines the ‘present fairly’ (PF) requirement in IFRS. There were eight relevant developments from 2005 to 2008, and these are mostly not yet considered in the academic literature. The paper synthesises the resulting regulatory position, especially for UK companies. Contrary to official guidance, it is suggested here that the PF requirement and the conditions for using it as an override in IFRS are not the same as for a true and fair view. Examples of the use of the PF override in practice are critically examined, as is a recent Opinion on PF by legal Counsel. Developments in US regulation make US opposition to a PF override clearer. The implications for financial reporting and for research into it are examined.     

2010年上半年国际金融市场运行综述

2010年上半年,在美国经济持续复苏以及欧洲主权债务危机不断深化等因素影响下,美元持续走强。美元、英镑短期利率上升,欧元短期利率先降后升,日元短期利率下降。主要国家中长期国债收益率下降。各主要股指先升后降。     

The Danish stock and bond markets: comovement,return predictability and variance decomposition

VAR models of the kind developed by Shiller and Beltratti [J. Monetary Econ. 30 (1992) 25] and Campbell and Ammer [J. Finance 48 (1993) 3] are used to analyze the Danish stock and bond markets and their comovement. In contrast to these papers, however, VAR parameter estimates are bias-adjusted and VAR generated statistics, including their standard errors and confidence intervals, are computed using bootstrap simulation. In addition, we modify the Campbell–Ammer variance decomposition such that it can handle returns from a long-term coupon bond. Some parts of the results for the Danish stock and bond markets are quite similar to the US results reported by Shiller and Beltratti and Campbell and Ammer, but other parts stand in sharp contrast to the results for the US. The most important differences between the US and Denmark are that in Denmark news about higher future inflation lead to an increase in expected future stock returns, and that excess stock return news and excess bond return news are negatively correlated.     

Warrant pricing: a review of empirical research

Recently, several warrant pricing studies have become available for different models as well as for different countries. The most important conclusions that can be drawn from reviewing these studies are: (1) it is not necessary to make a correction on option valuation models for the dilution effect; (2) the only model that systematically outperforms the Black-Scholes (1973) type models is the Square Root model; (3) US and German warrants seem to be priced correctly, while deviations are found for English and Japanese warrants (underpriced by the market) and Swiss and Dutch warrants (overpriced by the market).     

Technical analysis and central bank intervention

This paper extends genetic programming techniques to show that US foreign exchange intervention information improves technical trading rules' profitability for two of four exchange rates over part of the out-of-sample period. Rules trade contrary to intervention and are unusually profitable on days prior to intervention, indicating that intervention is intended to halt predictable trends. Intervention seems to be more successful in checking such trends in the out-of-sample (1981–98) period than in the in-sample (1975–80) period. Any improvement in performance results from more precise estimation of the relationship between current and past exchange rates, rather than from information about contemporaneous intervention.     

美国企业储蓄率变迁的内外因素分析——基于1991-2016年的数据

美国企业储蓄率在1991-2016年间稳中有升,其直接原因是与美国企业未分配利润的持续增加有关,深层次原因则是近年来美国企业利润的不断上升;进一步分析发现,美国企业利润的上升与其海外利润和金融业利润的增加密不可分,而这一切既受到美国国内因素的影响,又受到国际因素的影响。从国内因素来看,管制的放松、大型跨国集团尤其是金融集团的构建,以及对冲基金的国际金融投机,为美国企业海外利润和金融业利润的扩张奠定了丰厚的基础。从国际因素来看,美国在思想领域掌握经济话语权,引领和鼓动别国主动开放金融市场,以及对于符合美国经济思想的海外代理人的培养,使开放资本市场变成发展中国家的一种自觉行动。此外,通过操控国际经济机构逼迫别国开放市场,为美国企业的海外拓展大开方便之门。     

Statistical arbitrage in the US equities market

We study model-driven statistical arbitrage in US equities. Trading signals are generated in two ways: using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) or regressing stock returns on sector Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). In both cases, the idiosyncratic returns are modelled as mean-reverting processes, which leads naturally to ‘contrarian’ strategies. We construct, back-test and compare market-neutral PCA- and ETF-based strategies applied to the broad universe of US equities. After accounting for transaction costs, PCA-based strategies have an average annual Sharpe ratio of 1.44 over the period 1997 to 2007, with stronger performances prior to 2003. During 2003–2007, the average Sharpe ratio of PCA-based strategies was only 0.9. ETF-based strategies had a Sharpe ratio of 1.1 from 1997 to 2007, experiencing a similar degradation since 2002. We also propose signals that account for trading volume, observing significant improvement in performance in the case of ETF-based signals. ETF-strategies with volume information achieved a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 from 2003 to 2007. The paper also relates the performance of mean-reversion statistical arbitrage strategies with the stock market cycle. In particular, we study in detail the performance of the strategies during the liquidity crisis of the summer of 2007, following Khandani and Lo [Social Science Research Network (SSRN) working paper, 2007].     

Risk minimization in stochastic volatility models: model risk and empirical performance

In this paper the performance of locally risk-minimizing delta hedge strategies for European options in stochastic volatility models is studied from an experimental as well as from an empirical perspective. These hedge strategies are derived for a large class of diffusion-type stochastic volatility models, and they are as easy to implement as usual delta hedges. Our simulation results on model risk show that these risk-minimizing hedges are robust with respect to uncertainty and misconceptions about the underlying data generating process. The empirical study, which includes the US sub-prime crisis period, documents that in equity markets risk-minimizing delta hedges consistently outperform usual delta hedges by approximately halving the standard deviation of the profit-and-loss ratio.