Book Reviews

Changes that have been introduced in Poland in the 1990s have affected not only economic but also social life. These changes concern, among others, the pension scheme which started in Poland on 1 January 1999. This paper's goal is to present the major principles underlying the pension scheme reform in Poland vis-a-vis systems existing in other central and east European countries. They aim at replacing the relatively inefficient redistribution-based system with a mixed pension scheme, largely based on the capital reserve approach. A comparison of solutions employed in the selected countries will allow us to capture trends characterizing the evolution of the pension schemes.     

Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan

This paper quantifies the fiscal cost of demographic transition that Japan is projected to experience over the next several decades, in a life-cycle model with endogenous saving, consumption, and labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins. Retirement waves of baby-boom generations, combined with a rise in longevity and low fertility rates, raise the old-age dependency ratio to 85% by 2050, the highest among major developed countries, and generate a significant budget imbalance, as the government faces rising costs of public pension and health and long-term care insurance. Preserving the current level of the transfers will require a major increase in taxation. Using consumption taxes to balance the government budget, the tax rate reaches the maximal value of 48% in late 2070s. A pension reform to reduce benefits by 20% results in a peak tax rate of 37%, which can be reduced further to 28% if the retirement age is also gradually raised by 5 years.     

Comparing pension systems in the circular flow of income

The neoliberal consensus is that state funded pensions are not sustainable in the long term, due to declining fertility and longevity. In response, policymakers have pointed to the advantages of privately funded pension systems. This article compares the social provisioning of these two systems using the circular flow of income as an organizing framework. A series of pitfalls in the private model are examined, including inequality of provision, mis-selling of investment products, and punitive charges.     

契约储蓄对金融市场的潜在影响

契约储蓄机构包括养老基金和寿险公司。养老基金和寿险公司的特殊之处在于他们的债务期限为长期结构。这类储蓄机构的投资可以使金融市场上长期资金的供给增加,也由于其投资的长期性,使证券市场的效率、透明度和竞争程度整体上会得到提高,交易成本趋于下降。此外,使银行的行为更加理性化、长期化,从而使得金融市场上的资金需求方企业可以以更低的成本获得更多的长期资金,促进整个金融体系的健康稳定发展。     

养老金支付缺口：口径、方法与测算分析

基于精算和会计原理,本文对养老金支付缺口的内涵、口径和评估方法做了系统梳理和对比分析,并在不同口径和方法下,对我国城镇基本养老保险社会统筹基金的支付缺口进行了测算,分析了人口、经济和制度因素变动对测算结果的影响。结论表明,尽管在不同评估目的下,养老金支付缺口有不同的评估口径和评估方法,选择不同的精算假设,会得出有差异的评估结果,但在人口老龄化和人口长寿的总体趋势下,我国的养老金支付缺口呈现不断增大的趋势,如果不改革现行制度,养老金的财务可持续性将面临挑战。     

THE EFFECTS OF PENSION FUNDS ON MARKETS PERFORMANCE: A REVIEW

The worldwide reforming process of pension systems triggered by the demographic transition and globalization has led several countries to implement multi‐pillar pension systems and enhance pension funds. For this reason the studies on the effects that pension funds exert on markets performance have been flourishing in the last decades. In this paper, we provide an updated review of the empirical advances in this field of study, with particular focus on the effects that pension funds produce on labour markets, financial markets and economic growth.     

Beveridge versus Bismarck public-pension systems in integrated markets

The two basic systems according to which pay-as-you-go-financed public-pension systems can be organized are the (Anglo-Saxon) Beveridge system and the (continental) Bismarck system. An ideal Beveridge system provides flat-rate benefits, whereas an ideal Bismarck system provides earnings-related benefits. This paper analyzes the circumstances under which a Beveridge system can be sustainable in systems competition with a Bismarck system. The analysis reveals a much more complicated redistributive structure of the pension systems than only between high and low incomes. As a consequence, the sustainability depends on growth rates, and equilibria can exist where, contrary to the first intuition, even poor individuals prefer a Bismarck and rich individuals prefer a Beveridge system.     

Can child care policy encourage employment and fertility?: Evidence from a structural model

We develop a structural model of female employment and fertility which accounts for intertemporal feedback effects between these two outcomes. To identify the effect of financial incentives on employment and fertility we exploit variation in the tax and transfer system, which differs by employment state and number of children. Specifically, we simulate in detail the effects of the tax and transfer system, including child care costs. The model provides estimates of the structural preferences of women that can be used to study the effect of various policy reforms. Results show that increasing child care subsidies, conditional on employment, increases the labor supply of all women as well as the fertility rates of the childless and highly educated women.     

The impact of changes in second pension pillars on public finances in Central and Eastern Europe: The case of Poland

This paper studies the impact of the recent weakening of Poland's fully funded defined contribution second pension pillar on (i) the long-term sustainability (the deficit and implicit debt) of the full pension system and (ii) the implications for pension benefits (gross replacement rates). Simulation results, based on a stylised version of the Polish pension system, show that, in the baseline scenario, the weakening of the second pillar would permanently lower future pension system debt, chiefly as a result of a cut in replacement rates. But using a combination of pessimistic assumptions including strong population ageing, low real wage growth and an indexation of existing pension benefits on nominal wage growth rather than inflation coupled with bringing in tax expenditures related to the third voluntary pension pillar and an increase in the share of minimum pensioners leads to higher pension system deficits and eventually more public debt at a very long horizon. The simulation results also suggest that if Poland had not transformed its pay-as-you-go first pension pillar into a defined contribution from a defined benefit system, the weakening of the second pillar would deteriorate fiscal sustainability relatively quickly in the baseline scenario. This result suggests that the Hungarian pension reversal would reduce deficit and debt only temporarily, mainly because of Hungary's costly defined benefit first pension pillar: the weakening of the second pillar is tantamount to swapping low current replacement rates (in the defined contribution second pillar) against high future replacement rates in the defined benefit first pension pillar.     

Understanding pension communications at the organizational level: Insights from bounded rationality theory & implications for HRM

This paper applies concepts from bounded rationality theory to develop an integrative model to understand how pension scheme structure and pension scheme communication impact pension participation and contribution rates at organizational level. Organizational pension policies create framing effects that can have intended and unintended consequences depending on how they impact on employees' cognitive processes. Organizational pension communication policy impacts employee pension outcomes through the interaction between fast-acting, automatic System 1 and deliberative, calculating System 2 that typically endorses and occasionally overrides System 1 judgments. System 1 exhibits mental short-cuts (heuristics) and systematic biases. The likelihood of a System 2 challenge to System 1 depends on the personal, socio-demographic and economic characteristics of the individuals within the workforce. We propose that those within the HR function, who understand framing effects, can develop pension policies that positively affect pension plan outcomes at the organization level, specifically the pension participation and average contribution rates, using a combination of policies that in some cases promote System 2 endorsement and in other cases, System 2 engagement.     

Voting on Pensions: A Survey

Abstract. The paper presents a nonexhaustive survey of the literature designed to explain emergence, size and political sustainability of pay‐as‐you‐go pension systems. It proposes a simple framework of analysis (a small, open, two overlapping generation economy model), around which some variants are displayed. Dictatorship of the median voter is assumed. The text is organized to answer the following questions: (i) Do political equilibria with PAYG pension schemes exist? (ii) Why do they emerge? (iii) What are the conditions for the participation constraint of the pension game to be verified?, and finally, (iv) What is the size of the pension system chosen by the median voter and how is this size influenced by an exogenous (e.g. demographic) shock?     

MORE PENSIONS MIS‐SELLING AHEAD: BY GOVERNMENT OF COURSE1

Not only was the infamous Pensions Mis‐selling episode of the 1990s caused directly by government legislation; government has continually mis‐sold on an enormous scale its own pension creations, the state pension schemes. The history of state pensions is a history of broken promises, yet today's pension establishment welcomes the Pension Commission's recommendation for a higher state pension. With this mindset it is hardly surprising that similar approval is given to the Commission's other main recommendation – a National Pensions Saving Scheme, which has all the hallmarks of a fiasco in the making. Furthermore to the extent there is a savings crisis, government is a clear culprit, regularly resorting to low interest rates and the printing press to favour borrowing and not saving. Nor is it surprising that government itself will retain its gold‐plated pension arrangements and in all likelihood will be exempt from these proposals.     

THE YOUNG HELD TO RANSOM – A PUBLIC CHOICE ANALYSIS OF THE UK STATE PENSION SYSTEM

As populations age, it will become increasingly difficult to reform state pension systems. Reform will not be impossible, but the process of 'buying off' interest groups will be expensive. State pension provision must use the contributory principle combined with an accruals system – though private pension provision would be better still. There are serious flaws in the so-called 'citizens pension' much promoted by interest groups in the UK.     

The Debate on Pension Systems: The Paradigmatic Cases of Chile and Spain

This article is focused on pension systems in the light of two case studies that are antagonistic within the capitalist economy. On the one hand, the Spanish pension scheme, based on the principle of intergenerational solidarity, was achieved by the working‐class after decades of struggle. It constitutes the backbone of the Spanish social security system, thanks to the creation and development of indirect and deferred wages. On the other hand, the Chilean pension scheme, first imposed by the Pinochet dictatorship, is based on a funded system and private management. It rejects the principle of solidarity and, therefore, it makes impossible the construction of a decent pension structure. The comparison of the Spanish and the Chilean pension systems can be expressed in just one revealing fact: while the average pension in Spain is 79 percent of the last salary earned, benefits in Chile barely reach 33 percent for male workers and 25 percent for female workers. The analysis of both cases is framed in terms of the critique of political economy, in direct opposition to the current mainstream in economics. Instead of assuming methodological individualism and a harmonious view of human societies, as orthodoxy does, the critical paradigm conceives of capitalist economy as a dialectical process determined by the existence of social classes with different and opposed interests.     

Predicting childlessness for recent cohorts of American women

Over 50% of the American women now in the midst of the childbearing years have never borne a child. These levels of childlessness for women in their 20s are the highest ones in a time series that spans most of the twentieth century. Will postponed parenthood be translated into very high levels of permanent childlessness? Or will these cohorts "catch-up" with a late fertility flurry in their 30s and 40s? The authors examine 3 projection strategies: one using women's stated fertility expectations, a second relying on the patterns of previous cohorts, and a third which posits that current rates will persist into the future. The predictive validity of these different projection strategies are tested with data for the 1980-87 period. They show that the projection based on current period rates performs well. Further, the authors argue that it better captures the first birth process than other models. They forecast levels of 20% childless for cohorts of white women born in the early 1960s. Recent trends for nonwhites are very different from those for whites: levels of 4% are forecast for nonwhite women.     

Which factors affect the sustainability of pension schemes?

This article seeks to determine the most influential factors on the sustainability of a pension system. To this end, an empirical analysis was conducted on a sample of 13 countries, with different characteristics, according to three criteria: the size of the pension system's assets, the old-age dependency ratio and the success of the system according to the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index. The results of this preliminary study show that countries with successful pension systems share a high rate of formal employment, good political stability, high life expectancy at birth, and a good rate of coverage by the pension system.     

The impact of public pension board of trustee composition on state bond ratings

The declining financial health of public pension systems is increasingly becoming a budgetary concern for many state and local governments. While the academic literature has identified several factors behind the growth in unfunded state and local public pension liabilities, there is mixed evidence on how the composition of a pension system’s board of trustees affects a pension’s financial health. This article contributes to this literature by measuring how public pension board composition affects fund financial health as measured by state bond ratings. With a panel dataset of state pensions between 2001 and 2014 our results indicate that elected board members are consistently associated with lower bond ratings (and thus higher borrowing costs) while appointed and ex-officio board members are associated with higher bond ratings. These results are robust to a number of specifications.     

Dragon Children: Identifying the Causal Effect of the First Child on Female Labour Supply with the Chinese Lunar Calendar*

Instrumental variables (IV) estimates of the effect of fertility on female labour supply have only been able to identify the causal effect of second and higher parity children. This study uses exogenous variation in fertility caused by the Chinese lunar calendar to identify the effect of the first child. Additionally, weighting formulas are presented to interpret IV estimates as weighted average treatment effects in the case of multiple endogenous variables, which are useful when children vary in intensity by both number and age. The effect of the first child is found to be much greater than that of other children.     

IMBALANCE IN CHINA'S SEX RATIO AT BIRTH: A REVIEW

For decades, China's sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen significantly. This trend was found in different provinces and between different parities. Three direct causes have led to the imbalanced SRB: underreporting of female births, which refers to girls who are alive but are hidden from the census count; high rates of female infanticide, which refers to the killing of female infants shortly after birth; and sex‐selective abortion, which refers to the selective abortion of female fetuses. In addition to these immediate causes, China's One‐Child Policy and the cultural preference for sons constitute underlying causes for the imbalanced SRB. Distortions in the SRB can have serious social and economic consequences, including the loss of potential population growth, a “marriage squeeze,” precipitated social instability, and an aging workforce. However, China can improve the status quo by taking appropriate measures such as relaxing fertility regulations and preventing sex‐selective abortions. Establishing a comprehensive pension system can help address the high SRB in the long run. However, a policy reversing the high SRB may have a negative effect on other demographic factors. China needs to find a way to reverse the SRB without harming other demographic indicators and has to do so soon.     

Time costs,aspirations and the effect of economic growth on German fertility

Recent research has shown strong support for the model of reproductive behavior derived from the new home economics, and it is shown in this discussion that the evidence from the Federal Republic of Germany is consistent with the new home economics model. There is little support for Easterlin's relative economic hypothesis, but there is limited endorsement for model which adds the influence of experience based material aspirations to the new home economics model. Easterlin's relative income model is reviewed before directing attention to the new home economics model and an explanation of fertility movements in West Germany. The new home economics model focuses on the family division of labor between home activities and work outside the home. The marked decline in German fertility during the 1970s is mostly attributable to factors such as expanding women's earning capacities which increased the importance of 2 earner families, who have a different family division of labor and possibly preferences biased towards "quality" of children rather than numbers. Also, real wage growth lagged behind the growth in experience based aspirations, and this drop in relative income is more dramatic if it is presumed that material aspirations are based upon the family's income experienced by a young adult during his/her adolescence, rather than just the father's earnings. The mother's contribution to family income will contribute to her family's actual standard of living and the desired standard of living of her children. The labor force participation rates of married, middle-aged German women increased markedly during the 1st half of the 1950s, thus tending to enhance the increase in the standard of living desired by the young adults reaching marrying and childbearing ages in the mid-1960s. The analysis indicates that if there is not a substantial reduction in the proportion of young married women in the labor force, fertility will move countercyclically. In that there must be some floor to fertility, one should be cautious of using these parameter estimates considerably outside the 1950-1977 period. Nonetheless, the estimates indicate that economic growth will not bring a substantial rise in German fertility, and, outside the unlikely situation of sustained economic decline, fertility will remain low.