Speculators and Price Overreaction in the Housing Market

This paper investigates the role of speculators in the housing market, specifically their contribution to price overreaction through positive feedback trading (or momentum trading). We exploit a unique data set of condominium transactions in a residential real estate market where transaction traits associated with short‐term speculation can be identified. In the cross‐section of housing projects, a 10‐percentage‐point increase in trading activity following a strong short‐run market price rise predicts a negative subsequent monthly price change of 0.5% at the project level. Moreover, the price reversal effect associated with the momentum trading by short‐term speculators is two to three times stronger, and holding such trading constant, momentum trading in general has little additional impact. Our findings further suggest that momentum trading by short‐term speculators contributes to price overreaction largely in submarkets with lower information efficiency.     

我国商品房市场量价关系的实证分析

目前对房地产市场的研究主要集中于房价,而对量价关系的研究较少。鉴于此,文章利用1998～2008年的全国商品房季度数据,对我国商品房市场量价关系进行实证研究,并得出以下结论：从长期来看,我国商品房市场的交易量与价格之间存在协整关系;因果检验显示交易量是价格的格兰杰原因,反之则不成立;通过脉冲响应函数发现外界冲击导致了量价的一致波动且交易量对外界冲击的响应比房价更敏感。     

我国网对网跨区（省）电力交易价格机制创新

建立科学、合理的跨区（省）电力交易价格机制,有利于加快跨区（省）电网发展,有利于促进能源资源优化配置。由于我国电价机制正在完善中,独立输配电价机制尚未建立,当前跨区（省）电力交易尤其是网对网跨区（省）电力交易的价格机制存在一些突出问题。基于跨区（省）电力交易价格机制与方法的分析,借鉴国外跨国（区）电力交易中送电、输电和受电价格制定的经验,从完善价格体系、实施统一的价格机制、引入市场定价方法等方面提出了我国网对网跨区（省）电力交易价格体系与机制创新的政策建议。     

Price changes and trading volume relationship in the Hong Kong stock market

Studies on the relationship between price changes and trading volume can provide insight into the structure of the financial market. In this paper, we will study the above topic and concentrate on the stock market of Hong Kong. The correlation between price changes and trading volume as well as that between the magnitude of price changes and trading volume will be examined. We will also check the asymmetry of the price changes and volume relationship. Moreover, we will investigate the relationship between the variance of return and trading volume. Finally, the Granger causality test of price changes and volume will be performed.     

The Ex‐Day Price Behavior of REITs: Taxes or Ticks?

Taxes and microstructure constraints are often cited as possible explanations for why stock prices drop by less than the dividend on their ex‐dates. Using a sample of real estate investment trusts, which have no significant correlation between dividend size and yield, we find that close‐to‐open ex‐dividend price drops are related to dividend size as suggested by the microstructure models, but close‐to‐close price drops are related to dividend yield as predicted by the tax theory. These results imply that overnight price drops are primarily determined by microstructure, but that trading during the ex‐day causes prices to adjust to reflect individual tax preferences.     

Intertemporal Price Discrimination in Frictionless Durable Goods Monopolies

I show that small differences in quality and production costs between durables and non-durables in a product line allow a durable goods monopolist to intertemporally price discriminate even with continuous trading. In particular, a monopolist would want to both sell and rent out a durable to achieve price discrimination. This incentive to price discriminate simultaneously creates inefficient delay in the sale of the durable good, a finite trading period and long run efficiency of the market. The Coase conjecture fails because the non-durable good acts as an outside option that guarantees a minimum profit in the market for durables.     

碳排放权交易下的异质性企业博弈模型分析

本文基于碳排放权交易机制，建立理性层次不同、非线性成本的进行碳排放权交易的两企业垄断产量博弈模型，然后对模型系统的进行稳定性分析和数值模拟。分析发现，系统的稳定性与系统的所有参数都相关，而碳排放权交易价格的变化对系统均衡点的存在性、稳定性及其值的大小也有很大的影响。模拟结果表明，系统的稳定性取决于有限理性企业的产量调整速度和适应性理性企业的产量调整速度，碳排放权交易价格的升高会导致系统的稳定性增加，而随着碳排放权交易价格的升高，企业的均衡产量因碳交易成本的增加而减少。     

Insider trading as a vehicle to appropriate rent from R&D

While most insider trading is routine and legal, investors still treat it as new information about the firm's prospects—they assume that trades reflect managers' attempts to profit from their private information. This article explores insider trading as a mechanism to appropriate rent from R&D advances. We analyze stock price reactions to over 134,000 insider‐trading events and find that insider purchases generate larger positive stock price reactions for R&D‐intensive firms. Investors seem to assume that managers use insider trading to appropriate rent from R&D breakthroughs. We discuss how shareholders may prefer this rent appropriation mechanism over other forms of compensation that directly reduce the firm's income. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

消费排放权交易对消费者选择行为的影响——源自实验经济学的证据

消费模式对碳排放具有重要影响,加强消费行为的引导和管制,构建低碳消费模式已经成为一个亟待突破的重大课题。为了将消费因素纳入减排框架,本文基于总量管制和交易机制(Cap-and-Trade Rules)构建了消费排放权交易理论模型,在此基础上运用规范的实验经济学方法分析了消费排放权交易的市场均衡问题,以及均衡状态下的消费者选择行为。通过实验研究发现,消费排放权的交易价格会收敛于理论竞争均衡价格,即临界碳价;消费排放权交易能够激励消费者选择低碳产品,有利于创造低碳需求,构建低碳消费模式。基于这些研究结论,文章给出启示性政策建议。     

Implementation of food distribution policies: A case study in South India

Public policy for foodgrains distribution and consumption in Coimbatore District of South India involves processing through state trading institutions, and distribution through fair price shops, Food for Work and Employment Guarantee Schemes. Policies are evaluated in terms of their objectives, and institutions for the implementation of policy are analysed in terms of the way in which they mobilize and distribute resources: foodgrains, capital and labour. Although this deficit district has captured shares of Tamil Nadu State's publicly distributed grain which are disproportionate to its share of the state's ‘vulnerable’ population, nevertheless, schemes to increase the latter's foodgrain consumption have been patchily implemented over space and time, and they have had little measurable impact on intended beneficiaries.     

A quantitative analysis of trade policy responses to higher world agricultural commodity prices

The worldwide spike in prices of agricultural commodities in 2007–2008 elevated food security and social stability issues to the forefront, especially in many food-deficit countries. In order to mitigate the global food commodity price pressure on domestic markets, several major exporting and importing countries, mostly developing economies, adopted trade policy changes such as export bans (or raising export restrictions) or reducing import tariffs during the same period. This paper estimates the potential impacts of these policies on the world prices and trade of major agricultural commodities using a set of multi-country, multi-commodity, and partial-equilibrium models. Our findings suggest that over all, the trade policy responses in various countries increased the prices of all agricultural commodities, although the impact on the total net trade varies by commodity. The simulation results show that the overall impact of trade policy distortions on the world rice price is most significant at 24%, followed by wheat (14%) and barley (9%). In general, the poorer food-deficit countries/regions, which have limited power to manipulate their trade policies, experienced higher price increases compared to those major trading countries that adopted policy interventions. Also, the developing countries that are net importers which did not implement trade policy interventions experienced significant welfare losses resulting from interventions implemented by other major trading countries.     

Is Airline Price Dispersion the Result of Careful Planning or Competitive Forces?

We develop a model of price dispersion to distinguish the impact of price discrimination from that of peak load pricing schemes or atypical competition resulting from the financial difficulties of the early 1990s. By utilizing three alternative measures of dispersion and appealing to economic theory for our specification, we find robust results suggesting an estrangement between price dispersion and price discrimination. While some discrimination continues to persist at monopolized endpoints, most dispersion is associated with fare wars and peak load pricing schemes.     

Time on the Market and Selling Price

This study is primarily an analysis of tradeoff between selling time and price, both on a nominal and real basis. Sellers are seen as desiring to maximize their discounted real selling price and trading off the nominal selling price with expected selling time. The time a property remains on the market is important, not only because of its reflection on price, but also because of its possible reflection on the issue of submarket equilibrium—an assumption in most urban price studies. The empirical results of this study shed light on how similar studies can easily misinterpret the implications of time on the market on price and how further work may be improved.     

Price and quality discrimination in durable goods monopoly with resale trading

We examine a durable goods monopolist’s optimal dynamic price and product quality strategy when buyers are rational and can trade used durables among themselves. In contrast to the usual credibility problem of the durable goods monopolist, intertemporal quality discrimination introduces a time-inconsistency problem of not raising prices against high-valuation consumers who delay purchase for quality upgrades. Resale trading ameliorates this time-inconsistency problem and allows the monopolist to effectively price discriminate, especially when the buyers are patient. The monopolist’s optimal price and quality offers in the new good market exhibit complex dynamic patterns, and new good prices can fall as product quality improves even in the absence of entry threats or learning economies. Initial quality distortions are followed by steady-state quality allocations that are always efficient for the high-valuation buyers, but sometimes also for the marginal consumer-types. Both the resale trading frequency and the price discount for secondhand goods are driven by the pace of strategic quality obsolescence in the new good market.     

Mean-downside-risk and mean-variance newsvendor models: Implications for sustainable fashion retailing

Newsvendor models have been well-established for studying supply chain management problems with fashionable products. In this paper, we explore the mean-downside-risk (MDR) and mean-variance (MV) newsvendor models under both the exogenous and endogenous retail price decision cases. We first construct analytical models with the MDR and MV objectives. We then show that the analytical solution schemes for both the MDR and MV problems are the same. With the measures for sustainability such as the expected quantity of goods leftover, the expected sales to expected goods leftover ratio, the rate of return on investment, and the probability of achieving a pre-determined profit target, we proceed to compare the levels of sustainability by the fashion retailers which employ the mean-risk and the risk neutral models. Insights are generated.     

Announcement effects and market efficiency in a thin market: An empirical application to the Singapore equity market

Studies of share price responses to public announcements have assumed that there is no serious thinness in trading. This paper reports the findings of a study of price responses of thinly-traded shares in the Singapore equity market. With appropriate methodological refinements for thinness in trading, the announcement effects of earnings, dividends and capitalisation changes are studied. The results suggest that there are statistically significant abnormal returns during the months up to and including the month of announcement. With some minor exceptions, there appears to be no significant abnormal returns during the months after the announcements: semi-strong form efficiency is thus observed. These results are consistent with prior findings in the developed capital markets.The authors wish to thank the anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions. This paper has benefitted from financial assistance of the Department of Commerce of the University of Queensland.     

Handel mit Emissionsrechten und Herkunftsnachweisen in Europa — Das „Klima- und Energiepaket“

We analyze two major components of the so-called EU climate and energy package which has been proposed by the European Commission in order to implement the ambitious climate policy goals until 2020. The focus is on the development of the European emissions trading scheme and on the proposed directive introducing a trading scheme for guarantees of origin in order to promote the use of renewable energy. We conclude that the emissions trading scheme is substantially improved, not only because of the introduction of auctioning as the main principle for allocation, but also with regard to the distribution of the emission budget to the energy intensive sectors participating in the trading scheme on the one hand and the sectors not regulated by the scheme on the other. With respect to the regulation aimed at promoting the use of renewables we argue that it is necessary to be explicit about the final goals of the regulation and that co-existing funding and support schemes for renewables on the EU and the member-state-level have to be designed with great caution in order to avoid excess costs.     

Imperfect Information and Investor Inferences From Housing Price Dynamics

We examine characteristics of housing price dynamics that may be consistent with rational learning and not simply irrational feedback trading. We find significant patterns of temporal and spatial diffusion that are more amenable to explanations that allow for rational components. First, we execute our tests not simply on housing price changes, but on town-by-town differentials from regional average price changes. Second, we find significant relationships with own and neighboring town differentials, but not with control groups of non-neighboring towns. Third, we find that population density, a proxy for scale economies in information production, accelerates the diffusion process. Test were performed on quarterly data for large samples from Connecticut and the San Francisco area, employing method of moments estimators.     

谈天然气能量实时自动计量

体积计量不能体现天然气的使用价值和优质优价的贸易原则。能量计量基于天然气蕴藏的内在发热量，是公平、合理的贸易计量方式。应用在线检测技术，通过设计能量计量软件。将在线检测和流量计量有机结合，实现了天然气能量实时自动计量和数据远程监控。采用能量计量，企业获得了良好的经济效益和社会效益。     

预期货币效应与总需求研究

货币传导机制对价格和产出的影响(用货币数量论的观点来说,就是PY如何分争成P和Y),这取决于总需求和总供给的共同作用,本文就是研究共同作用曲线移动的分布状态和预期货币效应走向。