企业并购中定价风险及防范

一切并购财务决策行为都是以购买价格为基础的,在并购财务风险中定价风险是最重要的一个风险,定价越高,财务风险就越大;定价越低,财务风险就越小.许多并购案例失败的主要原因之一就是没有解决好并购中的定价风险问题,使并购企业的财务状况恶化.本文主要对企业并购过程中的目标企业估值问题进行了探讨并提出防范建议.     

不确定性环境下绩效期望差距和企业并购行为研究——基于中国A股上市公司的实证研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章基于绩效反馈的视角研究了企业的绩效期望差距与并购之间的相关关系。同时,还探讨了制度环境不确定性和市场环境不确定性对上述两者关系的调节作用。实证结果表明:企业的绩效期望差距正向影响企业的并购数。同时制度环境不确定性和市场环境不确定性对上述两者之间关系的调节作用是差异化的:制度环境不确定性越高,企业绩效期望差距与并购数之间的正向关系越弱;而市场环境不确定性越高,企业绩效期望差距与并购数之间的正向关系越强。     

国有产权转让的定价问题

随着国有企业改革的深入和产权交易的日益活跃，国有产权的转让交易已引起社会各界的广泛关注。产权转让的核心问题是交易价格的确定，转让定价直接影响各方面的利益，关系到国有资产的保值、增值。如何确保产权价格的合理性是国有产权转让的难点，也是人们担心国有产权转让可能造成国有资产流失的重要原因，因此，对国有产权转让定价问题的研究具有重要的现实意义。     

业绩承诺的价值与定增并购价格偏离——基于B-S期权定价模型

近年来,业绩承诺被广泛运用于定增并购中,其作用主要在于保护投资者和激励标的公司。现有研究中,基于业绩承诺的存在与否、及其部分参数的设定所产生的经济影响在理论层面及实证层面得到初步验证,但是这部分研究的出发点不够全面,衡量业绩承诺产生经济影响的真实路径,依然需要进一步探索。文章选取2011年至2019年7月A股上市公司签订了业绩承诺的定增并购事件为样本,基于B-S期权定价模型,测算以期权形式存在的业绩承诺价值,并探讨该价值高低对定增并购价格偏离的影响及其路径。研究结果表明：业绩承诺价值越大,并购溢价越高,该影响在股份支付的情况下更明显;业绩承诺价值越大,定增折价越低,该影响在非股份支付情况下更明显。文章从新颖而全面的视角衡量了业绩承诺的价值,独特地解释了定增并购价格偏离形成的机理,为定增并购多方设置更合理的交易价格提供了新的思路,也为监管机构完善定增并购交易制度提供了理论支持。     

产权交易市场建设的回顾与展望

产权交易作为整个市场体系中资本运作的重要组成部分,是推动多种经济要素合理流动,实现资源优化配置不可缺少的市场手段.自80年代中期以来,产权交易逐步出现在我国经济体制改革的舞台上,从企业资产简单的有偿转让到企业之间的兼并、整体转让,从企业的实物资产转让到企业的股份转让,从单纯的有形资产产权转让到包括有形资产与无形资产的多元产权转让,从国有企业的产权转让到各种所有制类型企业的产权转让,产权转让的广度和深度正在发生深刻的变化.市场经济越发展、越完善,产权交易的作用越显著.随着新世纪的到来,产权交易将在整个社会经济生活中发挥更大作用,全社会都将不断关注和支持产权交易活动.     

科学组织提高产权交易竞价率

福建省产权交易中心(以下简称"中心")在福建省国资委的领导下,严格按照<企业国有产权转让管理暂行办法>(以下简称3号令)的规定,不断加强和完善国有企业产权进场交易的组织和竞价工作,使产权市场的价格发现功能不断得到挖掘和提升,充分发挥了产权市场配置资源的基础性作用,不仅促进了产权的顺畅流转,而且实现了转让标的价格的最大化,提高了国有资产的增值能力.     

简论国资法与产权市场的关系——我读《企业国有资产法》

《企业国有资产法》这部在我国法律体系中有着重要地位的法律终于出台，将给产权界带来巨大影响。国有企业资产转让行业基本法长期缺位的现象得到解决，更为重要的是产权市场得到正名，国家以法律的形式确立了产权交易机构的地位，肯定产权交易机构在国有企业改制过程中的重要作用。     

企业融资期权研究

文章对融资期权进行了定义，分析了融资期权的种类、价值，从融资期权的角度对科龙事件、德隆事件进行了分析。最后得出有关结论：政府有关部门在国有企业的转让过程中不能忽视融资期权及其价值；在国有资产转让前进行尽职调查以甄别那些只对企业的融资期权感兴趣的并购方；企业信息披露方面的不完善给一些人榨取企业融资期权价值以可乘之机；加强对企业集团的贷款风险管理；切断大股东通过挪用占用公司资金的通道；企业挖掘融资期权的价值时要守法经营、规避法律风险；融资期权的价值是动态的，易变的，企业要与金融机构、供应商、客户等建立长期共生、多赢关系；企业要保持一定的融资潜力。     

国有资产在转让中流失的防范措施

国务院国资委、财政部关于《企业国有产权转让管理暂行办法》（3号令）的实施,从法律上确立了产权交易市场在国有企业产权转让中的地位和职能,从制度上为企业国有产权通过产权市场有序流转提供了保障。但是,国有企业产权通过市场交易是一项涉及面广、政策性强、环节程序多的复杂工作,在国有企业从制订产权转让方案到办理产权变更登记移交的整个过程中,任何主观因素或客观原因都有可能在某一个交易环节或某个工作层面上出现问题,从而导致国有资产在转让中发生流失。     

股权分置改革对并购的影响研究

2005年4月开始的股权分置改革,理顺了市场定价机制,从制度上消除了市场股份转让的制度性差异,对于恢复资本市场功能,并由此推动资本市场全方位改革具有历史性意义。该文主要从支付手段、并购主体和并购模式等方面探讨股权分置改革对我国并购市场的影响。     

企业产权、社会责任与权益资本成本

企业社会责任是否是企业为社会利益而牺牲自身利润的行为一直是学术界争论的焦点,文章尝试从资本市场参与者的角度出发,通过考察我国上市公司的社会责任履行情况对权益资本成本的影响来回答这个问题。研究发现：（1）良好的社会责任表现确实能显著降低企业的权益资本成本,其中改善企业对投资者的责任起到的作用最为突出;（2）与非国有企业相比,目前国有企业的社会责任履行情况更好且权益资本成本更低,但是积极的社会责任行为在非国有样本中更能发挥降低权益资本成本的作用。     

杠杆率的持续性与溢出效应:基于四部门的实证研究

文章采用TVP-VAR模型系统考察了我国非金融企业部门、金融部门、居民部门、政府部门四部门杠杆分别对总产出和资产价格波动的时变影响，从产出效应和潜在风险两方面实证检验了各部门杠杆率的可持续性。研究发现：杠杆率过快增长会加重资产价格波动，使金融不稳定性上升，削弱杠杆率对产出增长的促进作用。当前，非金融企业部门、政府部门、居民部门杠杆对产出仍有较显著的正向影响，而金融部门杠杆上升对产出的正向影响最小，对资产价格波动的正向影响最大。进一步，文章实证研究了杠杆率变动在部门间的信息溢出，发现政府部门加杠杆将显著推升全社会杠杆率，金融部门杠杆率上升对非金融企业部门杠杆有挤出作用，居民部门杠杆则可以分担部分非金融企业和政府部门的过剩杠杆。因此，当前应优先调控金融部门杠杆，减少资金在金融体系内空转套利，其他三个部门则应保持杠杆率总量的平稳。研究结论对于宏观金融稳定和结构性去杠杆政策的实施有重要的实践意义。     

The two-sided effect of financial globalization on output volatility

This paper provides evidence for a significant relation between international financial markets integration and output volatility. In the framework of a threshold model, it is empirically shown that this relation depends on the financial risk of a country as perceived by investors. In order to proxy financial risk, a financial risk rating employed by multinational firms, banks, and equity and currency traders is used. This rating relies on debt to GDP ratios amongst other indicators. In countries with low financial risk, financial openness decreases output volatility while financial openness increases output volatility in countries with high financial risk. Extensive robustness checks confirm this result.     

Development of capital structure theory based on option pricing

The capital structure theory based on option pricing model is an important embranchment, which connects the capital structure theory with its most essential issue, debt and equity pricing. The kernel of B-S option pricing theory is no-arbitrage, which initially appeared in MM theory of Modigliani and Miller. Merton illuminated that debt and equity were in essence options subsequently, so the method of option pricing was applied to debt and equity pricing. The relation of option pricing and capital structure theory is compact in the beginning. This paper reviews capital structure theory based on option pricing model, and proposes future research direction.     

Oil price uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from the Chinese bond market

This paper explores the impact of oil price uncertainty affects the cost of debt in China. By analyzing the bond data from 2008 to 2019 in China, we find that oil price fluctuation boost bond offering spread, denoting that oil price uncertainty may increase the cost of debt. This increase is likely due to higher default risks resulting from the heightened oil price uncertainty. Moreover, non-state-owned firms and those in the energy industry are more susceptible to the effects of oil price volatility. Our findings also reveal an asymmetric effect of oil price uncertainty on the cost of debt, with a stronger impact observed from positive uncertainty compared to negative uncertainty. This study contributes to the current understanding of the ways in which oil price uncertainty impacts the cost of debt in an emerging country.     

Ownership concentration and financial policy of China's listed firms

This study examines the role of ownership concentration, measured by the top-five shareholders' equity ownership, in shaping corporate finance policies in China. Among privately-owned enterprises (POEs), ownership concentration has negative and positive effects on their debt and cash reserves, respectively, consistent with controlling shareholders' incentives to stave off business failures and ride out adverse future circumstances. These effects are more pronounced if POEs have high market-to-book, suggesting that growth opportunities heighten their controlling shareholders' desire to avoid debt and hoard cash. Although ownership concentration has similar effects on debt and cash in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), these effects in SOEs appear to reflect management discretion or conservatism. Our evidence suggests that ownership concentration is a key driver of corporate finance in an emerging market, but private and state ownership concentrations have seemingly similar but qualitatively different consequences.     

Outside Blockholders' Monitoring of Management and Debt Financing: An Alternative Perspective

Liao ( 2015 ) argues that the monitoring by large outside shareholders (blockholders) exacerbates the conflict between debt and equity and in turn affects the choice and structure of debt financing. The study contends that private debt is more immune to the increase in debt‐equity conflict. Consistent with this argument, companies with outside blockholders are inclined to issue private debt over public debt. Further, private debt exhibits less price protection but relies on more protective covenants than does public debt. The findings are interesting and intuitive. I evaluate the economic arguments in the paper and discuss some of the challenges that the study faces. My conclusion is that the interpretation of the results is more complex than the one the study presents. I offer a broader framework that can be used to shed light on why the governance structure combines equity blockholders and private debt issuance. I also discuss several questions to be addressed by future research.     

地方政府财政政策与企业股权融资:理论与实证

论文通过建立连续时间动态讨价还价模型对地方政府与企业所有者之间的博弈关系进行了理论研究．并对双方策略选择关系进行了实证检验。理论研究的结果表明,如果博弈双方的时间偏好相同,剩余控制权（或者称之为相对讨价还价优势）的配置与博弈双方的福利水平无关：而时间偏好不相同时,剩余控制权的配置将影响双方的福利水平,这个研究结论与是否存在交易成本不必相关。通过实证研究,论文的研究结果表明：（1）地方政府追求预算外盈余的行为会导致其增加财政支出最终导致财政赤字持续增加,但这些财政赤字并没有为企业股权融资提供有效的支持;（2）地方政府的财政更愿意与企业在预算外的领域合作,而企业则更愿意与地方政府在预算内合作：（3）非国有企业较国有企业更愿意和地方政府在预算外合作,而地方政府也更愿意和非国有企业在预算外的领域合作。这些实证结果说明地方政府在时间偏好不一致的情况下拥有剩余控制权。     

The choice between PIPE and SEO in China

China's private investment in public equity (PIPE) market has exceeded the aggregate proceeds raised by its seasoned equity offering (SEO) market. Taking into account the institutional and regulatory backgrounds of China's secondary equity markets, this paper examines how listed firms choose between PIPE and SEO. Firms with both options tend to be induced by the greater flexibility in its equity offering mechanism to choose PIPE over SEO, particularly when stock price volatility is high or the market is performing poorly. SEO issuers are more likely to time the stock market. Post issuance abnormal returns, in both short- and long-run tend to be higher for PIPE than for SEO issuers.     

Determinants of the Time Series of Earnings and Implications for Earnings Quality*

This paper examines whether differences in accrual accounting methods across balance sheet accounts influence the time‐series process of earnings. We define earnings quality as the responsiveness of earnings to shifts in permanent earnings and predict that responsiveness will increase in a firm's use of variable rate debt, where accruals move directly with shifts in interest rates. We also predict that responsiveness will decrease in a firm's investment in property plant and equipment because depreciation is largely predetermined and does not respond to shifts in opportunity costs. </P><P>To test these hypotheses, we regress earnings on lagged earnings and a proxy for permanent earnings (that is, the implied dividend annuity in lagged equity value). Within the context of an adjustment cost model, this regression captures the responsiveness of earnings by the coefficient on lagged price and by one minus the coefficient on lagged earnings. Consistent with this framework, we find the unconstrained estimated coefficients on these two variables to be negatively correlated. Furthermore, consistent with our hypotheses, we find that the coefficient on lagged earnings (lagged price) is positively (negatively) associated with the relative magnitude and life of fixed assets on the balance sheet and negatively (positively) associated with the relative magnitude of variable rate debt on the balance sheet.</P>