Risk-Sensitive Asset Management with Lognormal Interest Rates

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets - Risk-sensitive asset management on both finite and infinite time horizons are treated on a market with a bank account and a risky stock. The risk-free interest rate...     

Jumps and Dynamic Asset Allocation

This paper analyzes the optimal dynamic asset allocation problem in economies with infrequent events and where the investment opportunities are stochastic and predictable. Analytical approximations are obtained, with which a thorough comparative study is performed on the impacts of jumps upon the dynamic decision. The model is then calibrated to the U.S. equity market. The comparative analysis and the calibration exercise both show that jump risk not only makes the investor's allocation more conservative overall but also makes her dynamic portfolio rebalancing less dramatic over time.     

Asset Allocation with a High Dimensional Latent Factor Stochastic Volatility Model

We investigate the implications of time-varying expected returnand volatility on asset allocation in a high dimensional setting.We propose a dynamic factor multivariate stochastic volatility(DFMSV) model that allows the first two moments of returns tovary over time for a large number of assets. We then evaluatethe economic significance of the DFMSV model by examining theperformance of various dynamic portfolio strategies chosen bymean-variance investors in a universe of 36 stocks. We findthat the DFMSV dynamic strategies significantly outperform variousbenchmark strategies out of sample. This outperformance is robustto different performance measures, investor’s objectivefunctions, time periods, and assets.     

Option Valuation and Hedging Strategies with Jumps in the Volatility of Asset Returns

We develop a model in which the volatility of risky assets is subject to random and discontinuous shifts over time. We derive prices of claims contingent on such assets and analyze options-based trading strategies to hedge against the risk of jumps in the return volatility. Unsystematic and systematic events such as takeovers, major changes in business plans, or shifts in economic policy regimes may drastically alter firms' risk profiles. Our model captures the effect of such events on options markets.     

单因素资本资产定价模型在中国市场的应用研究

根据单因素资本资产定价模型（CAPM）模型，股票的β值与期望收益率呈正比例关系，β值为通常收益率的解释因素。本文从统计学角度阐述了模型和回归方程之间的关系，应用回归分析中的相关理论解决模型参数估计和模型检验等问题，并对一些统计指标作出有实际意义的解释。我们主要运用中国股市牛市期间和熊市期间的数据研究β值和未来30个交易日后的收益率之间的关系。实证结果表明，牛市期间收益率随β值的增大总体上呈现上升趋势，熊市期间收益率随β值的增大总体上呈现下降趋势。这说明β值是决定未来收益的一个风险因素，投资者可以依据β值对未来收益从而决定投资那只股票（组合）做出判断。但是两者的相关关系不强，后期线性趋势不好，因此投资时还要考虑其它一些风险因素，比如涨面／市值比、市盈率等等。     

Diversified Portfolios with Jumps in a Benchmark Framework

This paper considers diversified portfolios in a sequence of jump diffusion market models. Conditions for the approximation of the growth optimal portfolio (GOP) by diversified portfolios are provided. Under realistic assumptions, it is shown that diversified portfolios approximate the GOP without requiring any major model specifications. This provides a basis for systematic use of diversified stock indices as proxies for the GOP in derivative pricing, risk management and portfolio optimization. 1991 Mathematics Subject Classification: primary 90A12; secondary 60G30; 62P20 JEL Classification: G10, G13     

基于分层动态随机规划的资产负债管理模型

提出一种分层动态随机规划模型,解决资产负债最优配置问题。模型放宽了目标函数必须准确反映投资者收益-风险态度的限制,引入评价指标体系判定最优解。各层次模型考虑了未来市场上的不确定因素,采用动态随机规划基本形式,以情景树作为随机参数输入并得到决策结果。通过对商业银行资产负债配置建模的实例分析验证了该模型的可行性和有效性,使银行在满足流动性和安全性要求的同时,可以获得更高的收益率。     

采用区间价格模型评估技术资产

技术资产的区间价格模型遵循了技术资产的定价原则,易于平衡技术资产出让方和受让方之间的利益,能对技术资产进行较全面的评估。本文对区问价格模型及其中仅值的评价指标体系进行了说明,并以一个范例说明了区间价格模型的应用。     

我国保险资产管理公司的发展创新与监管模式改革

我国保险业在快速发展的同时,保险资金运用问题也日益突出。随着保险资产管理公司股权结构的日益多元化,资产管理范围的逐步扩大以及资产管理业务的不断创新,保险资产管理公司的行业界限将日益模糊。建议改革对保险资产管理公司由保监会独立监管的模式,采取由保监会主监管的功能监管模式,并进一步完善监管联席会制度和信息共享机制。     

中国保险资金运用的"曲"与"直"

由中国保监会发布的《保险资产管理公司管理暂行规定》于今年6月1日起正式实施。这意味着国内将有10余家本外资保险公司符合发起成立保险资产管理公司的条件。而根据统计数据,截至今年4月份,中国保险业总资产已过万亿元,这表明,未来几家保险资产管理公司管理的上万亿甚至更多的资金将成为国内资本市场的新生力量。尽管保监会相关人士一再强调保险资产管理公司与保险资金运用渠道拓宽没有必然的联系,但是该规定显然为解决市场讨论已久的保险资金运用问题做好了铺垫,为此本刊特约中国保监会发展改革部主任袁力就我国保险资金的运用问题为读者做详尽的阐述。     

Strategic Asset Allocation in Money Management

This paper analyzes the dynamic portfolio choice implications of strategic interaction among money managers who compete for fund flows. We study such interaction between two risk‐averse managers in continuous time, characterizing analytically their unique equilibrium investments. Driven by chasing and contrarian mechanisms when one is well ahead, they gamble in the opposite direction when their performance is close. We also examine multiple and mixed‐strategy equilibria. Equilibrium policy of each manager crucially depends on the opponent's risk attitude. Hence, client investors concerned about how a strategic manager may trade on their behalf should also learn competitors' characteristics.     

An International Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Hedging Risk

This paper employs a two-factor international equilibrium asset pricing model to examine the pricing relationships among the world's five largest equity markets. In addition to the traditional market factor premium, a hedging factor premium is included as the second factor to explain the relationship between risks and returns in the international stock markets. Moreover, a GARCH parameterization is adopted to characterize the general dynamics of the conditional second moments. The results suggest that the additional hedging risk premium is needed to explain rates of return on international equities. Furthermore, the restriction that the coefficient on the hedge-portfolio covariance is one smaller than the coefficient on the market-portfolio covariance can not be rejected. This suggests that the intertemporal asset pricing model proposed by Campbell (1993) can be used to explain the returns on the five largest stock market indices.     

非信贷资产风险管理问题探讨

一、商业银行非信贷资产风险管理现状 近年来,随着我国金融改革的逐步深化和金融市场的不断发展,以及商业银行资金运用渠道的拓展与金融产品和金融工具的创新,商业银行的资产负债结构出现了较大变化,资产多     

资产配置中的投资时钟模型

投资时钟模型是将资产配置和行业策略同经济周期相联系的资产配置方法。经济周期划分为衰退、复苏、过热和滞胀四个阶段,各阶段都对应着收益表现超过一般市场的某一特定资产类别:债券、股票、大宗商品和现金。投资时钟模型还可以帮助资产配置的行业选择。在经济复苏阶段,投资于成长性的周期性行业;在过热阶段,投资于价值性的周期性行业;在滞胀时期,投资于价值型的防御性行业;在衰退时期,投资于成长性的防御性行业。     

资产减值与盈余管理——论《资产减值》准则的政策涵义

2006年2月15日我国颁布了《资产减值》准则,规定已确认的资产减值不得转回。本文研究了上市公司的资产减值与盈余管理之间的关系,发现减值前亏损的公司存在以转回和计提资产减值进行盈余管理的行为, 一方面是为了避免亏损,另一方面是为了进行大洗澡(big bath);同时有较弱的证据说明减值前盈利的公司也存在以转回和计提资产减值进行盈余管理的行为,一方面是为了利润平滑化,另一方面是为了达到盈余增长。     

中粮资管升级

中粮集团有限公浏（COFCO）作为国务院国资委直属以粮油食晶全产业链为基础的大型中央企业集团,持续18年名列美国《财富》杂志全球伦业500强,居中国食品工业百强之首。     

On a Simple Econometric Approach for Utility-Based Asset Pricing Model

The Journal of Finance has published an important paper entitled A Simple Econometric Approach for Utility-Based Asset Pricing Model by Brown and Gibbon (1985). The main purpose of this paper is to extend the research of Brown and Gibbons (1985) and Karson, Cheng and Lee (1995) in estimating the relative risk aversion (RRA) parameter in utility-based asset pricing model. First, we review the distributions of RRA parameter estimate . Then, a new method to the distribution of is derived, and a Bayesian approach for the inference of is proposed. Finally, empirical results are presented by using market rate of return and riskless rate data during the period December 1925 through December 2001.     

A Labor Capital Asset Pricing Model

We show that labor search frictions are an important determinant of the cross‐section of equity returns. Empirically, we find that firms with low loadings on labor market tightness outperform firms with high loadings by 6% annually. We propose a partial equilibrium labor market model in which heterogeneous firms make dynamic employment decisions under labor search frictions. In the model, loadings on labor market tightness proxy for priced time‐variation in the efficiency of the aggregate matching technology. Firms with low loadings are more exposed to adverse matching efficiency shocks and require higher expected stock returns.     

Revisiting the European Asset Management Industry

During the last decade, the European asset management industry has undergone a period of unprecedented change. Europe has witnessed ten years of financial integration, driven in particular by various regulatory initiatives. But Europe has also been transformed in the geopolitical sense, with 12 new Member States and millions of new citizens of the European Union. Add to that a decade of rapid globalization and one financial crisis of historical proportions. But while Europe and its financial markets have evolved and the asset management industry has transformed itself, academic research has not kept pace. During the last ten years or so, the lack of systematic research on the structural dimensions of the asset management industry is striking. This article fills this gap by providing a comprehensive overview of the European asset management industry at the end of the first decade of the 21^st century. We seek to provide explanations to the various differences observed between European countries. Using prior research as a basis, we also compare the characteristics of the industry to their standing at the turn of the century. This also includes assessing whether and to what extent the forecasts provided in prior research did materialize. We also try to find reasons for cases in which they did not. Finally, we ourselves offer a number of prognoses on the development of the European asset management over the coming years.