On the theory of effective demand under stochastic rationing

The concept of effective demand under stochastic manipulable quantity rationing is shown to be compatible with the existence of nontrivial equilibrium. It is argued that stochastic rationing is unavoidable for any satisfactory definition of effective demand. Moreover, manipulability of the rationing mechanism is necessary for reasons of logical consistency, at least if the distribution over realisations for each agent depends on his own action and on the aggregate values of demand and supply only. In that case, anonymous stochastic rationing schemes reduce to those random functions, the mean value function of which is the uniform proportional rationing mechanism.     

Consumption externalities, production externalities, and efficient capital accumulation under time non-separable preferences

The effects of consumption and production externalities on economic performance under time non-separable preferences are examined both theoretically and numerically. We show that a consumption externality alone has long-run distortionary effects if and only if labor is supplied elastically. With fixed labor supply, it has only transitional distortionary effects. Production externalities always generate long-run distortions, irrespective of labor supply. The optimal tax structure to correct for the distortions is characterized. We compare the implications of this model with those obtained when the consumption externality is contemporaneous. While some of the long-run effects are robust, there are also important qualitative and quantitative differences, particularly along transitional paths.     

Artificially Low Interest Rates as Export Promotion Policy

We reconsider the effects of a policy that sets an artificially low interest rate. Such a policy involves a combination of an interest rate ceiling and a rationing rule that assigns a priority‐lending status to export sectors over domestic service sectors. We demonstrate that the policy works as an export‐promotion policy, and improves national income. Furthermore, under some conditions, the policy expands the domestic service sector, despite the reduced amount of funds owing to the rationing rule. Finally, the artificially low interest rate improves national welfare.     

Intertemporal labor supply and involuntary unemployment

We estimate a model of intertemporal male labor supply behavior which explicitly accounts for the effect of income taxation and the transfer system. Moreover, we model the demand-side driven rationing risk that prevents agents from choosing the optimal labor supply state. Our results show that elasticities derived in an unconstrained pure choice model are significantly higher compared to a model with involuntary unemployment. This holds true for short-run and long-run labor supply elasticities.     

商业银行信贷配给对中国房地产业波动的影响*

商业银行信贷配给控制中国房地产业信贷规模和结构,造成供给和需求的规模与结构扭曲,影响货币政策和财政政策的调控效果,容易引起房地产业波动。本文通过构建信贷配给模型,测算不同波动时期当中,商业银行信贷配给程度的变化趋势,以及对房地产业的影响。实证结果显示,信贷配给程度的变化与房地产业波动显著相关,信贷配给改变了投资和消费在推动房地产产出过程中的结构,并制约路径依赖对产出的影响,同时影响财政政策和数量型货币政策稳定房地产业的效果。本文认为,可以通过逐渐弱化商业银行在房地产金融市场中的垄断地位,丰富房地产信贷供给层次和结构,以及加强信贷供给监督来缓解信贷配给的消极作用。     

养老保险制度选择与劳动供给研究

在内生经济增长模型中,劳动是影响生产函数或产出的重要因素。生产过程中劳动投入的多少取决于劳动的供给。养老保险的缴费与给付是否关联以及两者之间的比较必然会影响个人的劳动供给决策。研究养老保险制度选择对劳动供给的影响,主要是考察不同的养老保险制度是如何影响劳动者的退休决策和在职期间劳动者的劳动供给决策的。     

Team cohesion and collective-labor supply in Chinese agriculture

This paper focuses on the degree of cohesion within Chinese production teams as a determinant of household incentives and collective-sector labor supply. Effects of changes in crop-procurement prices and fixed charges on the labor supply to the collective sector, labor allocation under alternative income-distribution systems, and the incentives to apply peer pressure to increase collective work effort are considered in the context of a simple household utility-maximization model. The results suggest that increasing the degree of cohesion within teams may lessen the severity of the trade-off between agricultural output and the transition to need-based distribution systems.     

The optimal minimum wage with regulatory uncertainty

For two different regulatory standards, we examine the optimal minimum wage in a competitive labor market when the government is uncertain about supply and demand. Solutions are related to underlying supply and demand conditions, and to the extent of uncertainty and of rationing efficiency. With expected earnings maximization, greater uncertainty widens the range of parameter values for which a minimum wage should be set. With expected worker surplus maximization and sufficiently efficient rationing, a minimum wage should always be set. However, in both cases regulatory uncertainty may require a low minimum wage that may not bind in equilibrium.     

Credit rationing in a disequilibrium macroeconomic model

This paper develops a four-market disequilibrium macroeconomic model. The model includes the labor, output, bond, and money markets. A number of papers have considered the interactions between the labor and output markets. Fewer papers have considered the financial sectors. This paper is an exploration into the role of financial market disequilibrium (e.g., credit rationing) within a disequilibrium macroeconomic model.     

Public Sector Rationing and Private Sector Selection

We study the interaction between nonprice public rationing and prices in the private market. Under a limited budget, the public supplier uses a rationing policy. A private firm may supply the good to those consumers who are rationed by the public system. Consumers have different amounts of wealth, and costs of providing the good to them vary. We consider two regimes. First, the public supplier observes consumers’ wealth information; second, the public supplier observes both wealth and cost information. The public supplier chooses a rationing policy, and, simultaneously, the private firm, observing only cost but not wealth information, chooses a pricing policy. In the first regime, there is a continuum of equilibria. The Pareto dominant equilibrium is a means‐test equilibrium: poor consumers are supplied while rich consumers are rationed. Prices in the private market increase with the budget. In the second regime, there is a unique equilibrium. This exhibits a cost‐effectiveness rationing rule; consumers are supplied if and only if their cost–benefit ratios are low. Prices in the private market do not change with the budget. Equilibrium consumer utility is higher in the cost‐effectiveness equilibrium than the means‐test equilibrium.     

Means-Testing the Child Benefit

Improving the distributional impact of transfers may be costly if it reduces labor supply. In this paper we show how effects of changes in the design of the child benefit program can be examined by employing information from behavioral and non-behavioral simulations on micro data. The direct distributional effects are assessed by tax-benefit model calculations, while female labor supply responses to alternative child benefit schemes are simulated under the assumption that choices are discrete. Distributional effects after labor supply responses are also shown. The study confirms that greater targeting of the child benefit is traded against reductions in female labor supply.     

An econometric application of the theory of the farm-household

Employing a Cobb-Douglas specification for the production function and a modified linear expenditure system, the paper presents an econometric model of household production, consumption and labor supply behaviour for a semi-commercial farm with a competitive labor market. The model, estimated from primary, cross-sectional, Malaysian data, is used to analyse the impact of migration, output price intervention and technological change on the agricultural sector. In doing so, the wage-rate is treated as an endogenous variable to be determined by the interaction of aggregate labor demand and supply curves obtained from the estimated micro functions.     

健康的不确定性与预防性劳动力供给——来自中国农村地区的经验证据

文章采用理论分析和实证研究相结合的方法,在经济学效用函数理论框架内考察健康不确定,巨对中国农村非农劳动力供给行为的影响.理论分析表明,在健康存在不确定性的情况下,农村非农劳动力供给存在预防性劳动力供给现象,拥有医疗保险可以显著降低预防性劳动力供给.采用CHNS数据的实证研究结果支持预防性劳动力供给的理论推断.     

Fixed price equilibria in an overlapping generations model with investment

We study fixed price temporary equilibria (with rationing) and sequences of temporary equilibria in a three commodities (goods, labor, bonds) overlapping generations model with endogenous investment. Young consumers, living two periods, work, consume, and buy bonds for financing next period's consumption. New firms, existing for two periods, make a production plan for the next period, taking into account expected rationing, assumed similar to present rationing. The plan determines the amount of goods to buy as capital, financed by bonds. Old firms produce, using labor and the previously bought capital. Different regimes exist and expectations can be self-fulfilling and self-destroying.We are grateful to the referees for helpful comments.     

Human capital and economic growth: A macroeconomic model for Pakistan

The paper presents a small macro model for Pakistan economy focusing the impact of investment in human capital on the key macroeconomic variables. The demand side is modeled along the Keynesian lines while the supply side is modeled as per neoclassical theory of production. This framework allows analyzing the effects of investment in human capital on supply side variables (like labor, physical and human capital) and demand side variables (like consumption and investment) at the same time.The model has small forecasting horizon in which three alternative scenarios regarding government spending on education are evaluated from 2012 to 2016. The model shows that the link between human capital and labor market is weak however a change in education spending affects output through enhancing productivity and through multiplier-accelerator principle. Though the model is small in size and forecasting horizon, it can help in evaluating the future paths of key macroeconomic variables associated with education spending.     

The effects of taxation,price control and government contracts in oligopoly and monopolistic competition

Many government contracts with or policies towards oligopolistic sectors essentially involve private firms selling a given proportion (ϑ), or quantity, of output to the government at a fixed price (P_R) with the remainder being sold on the open-market. Often this is combined with consumer rationing. Examples include cement and sugar in India, and health, housing and defence in many countries. The paper investigates the effects of these schemes (including sales and excise taxation) on prices, output and household welfare under oligopoly and monopolistic competition. Less government control (reduced ϑ) may raise prices and tax shifting can be above or below 100 percent.     

Optimal redistributive taxation with both extensive and intensive responses

We study optimal income taxation when labor supply reacts along the intensive and extensive margins. Individuals are heterogeneous across two unobserved dimensions: their skill and disutility of participation. We develop a new method to analytically derive conditions under which optimal marginal tax rates are non-negative everywhere. It is typically optimal to provide a distinct level of transfer to the non-employed and to workers with negligible earnings. Numerical simulations illustrate these properties for the US. We also apply our method to sign output distortions in other adverse selection frameworks with random participation, namely the monopoly nonlinear pricing and the regulatory monopoly problems.     

Consumption externalities,production externalities,and long-run macroeconomic efficiency

We analyze the effects of consumption and production externalities on capital accumulation. We show that the importance of consumption externalities depends upon the elasticity of labor supply. If the labor supply is inelastic, consumption externalities cause no long-run distortions. Whether there are distortions along the transitional path depends upon consumer preferences. The effects of production externalities are more pervasive; they exert long-run distortionary effects irrespective of labor supply. The optimal taxation to correct for the distortions created by the externalities is characterized. We analyze both stationary and endogenously growing economies, and while there are many parallels in how externalities impact, there are also important differences.     

Water allocation,crop choice,and priority services

We analyze the problem of allocating irrigation water among heterogeneous farmers when water supply is stochastic. If farmers are risk-neutral, a spot market for water is efficient; while the oft-used uniform rationing system is inefficient, both ex ante and ex post. Indeed, we show that it leads farmers to overexpose to risk, thus making shortages more severe and more frequent in case of drought. We propose instead a regulation by priority classes extending Wilson, and we derive an efficiency result. We characterize the set of farmers that would win or lose from such a reform. We also argue that a system of priority classes may be preferred to a spot market system, because scarcity is easier to manage ex ante than ex post, and because this system facilitates the supply of insurance to risk-averse agents.     

基于木材供给生产目标下林农经营规模效率研究——以福建省杉木用材林为例

文章基于福建省140份林农的问卷调查数据,从木材供给生产目标出发,采用DEA方法对产出导向下的杉木生产的经营规模效率进行测算。结果表明：福建省林农经营规模效率有待进一步提高,存在资金投入和劳动投入冗余,林地产出不足等问题,并针对存在的问题提出要继续深化集体林权制度改革,合理配置生产要素投入比例,提高林农经营管理水平等建议。