Indivisibility,irreversibility, and the demand for consumer durables

A deeper understanding of the volatility of expenditures on consumer durables is sought in the properties of those goods and the transactions by which they are acquired: durability, indivisibility, and irreversibility. When these properties constrain optimization we find: 1) variation in the lengths of endogenously determined replacement cycles rather than stock-level adjustments may account for much of the volatility, 2) the qualitative nature of an individual consumer's response to a shock depends on the age of his existing unit relative to its optimal replacement age when the shock occurs, 3) the aggregate distribution of unit ages relative to their optimal replacement ages conditions the aggregate response to shocks, and 4) shocks actually change that distribution. A simple aggregation methodology is demonstrated which depicts exaggerated aggregate reactions to shocks.     

Asset prices and business cycles under market incompleteness

In this paper, we study the quantitative implications of a real business cycle model where the firm is the capital owner, households are heterogeneous, and markets are incomplete due to restricted asset trade. Since, under these assumptions, the usual firm objective is no longer well defined, several non-standard objectives are incorporated into the model. These include variants of market value maximization and a utility function for the firm. We find that the presence of market incompleteness alters little the behavior of asset returns. On the other hand, the behavior of the macroeconomic aggregates is quite sensitive to the firm objective, which affects the capital accumulation path. In contrast to conventional findings, capital is not necessarily higher when markets are incomplete. In addition, the different capital accumulation effects imply that shareholders with different asset wealth might prefer different firm objectives.     

Real business cycles with Cournot competition and endogenous entry

We introduce strategic interactions with quantity competition a` la Cournot and endogenous entry in an RBC model with homogenous goods. In the long run, the steady state mark up is decreasing in the capital share, in the discount factor and in the level of technology, while it is increasing in the rate of bankruptcy and in the entry cost. In the short run, a competition effect amplifies the propagation of the shocks and generates procyclical profits and countercyclical mark ups. We extend the model to different forms of competition (as imperfect collusion and Stackelberg competition). The analysis of technology and preference shocks and of the second moments suggests that the model outperforms the RBC in terms of variability of output, labor and, of course, profits and mark ups.     

Capital requirements and business cycles with credit market imperfections

The business cycle effects of bank capital regulatory regimes are examined in a New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and a cost channel of monetary policy. Bank capital increases incentives for banks to monitor borrowers, thereby raising the repayment probability, and excess capital generates benefits in terms of reduced regulatory scrutiny. Basel I- and Basel II-type regulatory regimes are defined, and the model is calibrated for a middle-income country. Simulations of a supply shock show that, depending on the elasticity that relates the repayment probability to the bank capital–loan ratio, the Basel II regime may be less procyclical than a Basel I regime.     

Bringing computer power to the consumer market

Firms in m a y industrial sectors are seeking to capitalize on the promise of new information technology to generate new consumer products which can gain substantial markets. Where these are improved versions of familiar products, the marketing task is relatively easy, but many of the new product opportunities involve radically new types of consumer good and/or service. Drawing on studies of efforts to establish such radical innovations, this paper examines the problems that are confornted in attempting to define what sort of product is actually being created and how it may fit into consume life-styles. Though there is considerable discussion of these topics in industrial circles, it appears that until late stages of product development, little serious analysis of social issues is undertaken— if at all. Furthemore, such discussio of the nature and use of products are more intended to mobilize the group of actors who are needed to support the innovation than to feed substantial information about possible user reqquirements into the design process. The design process is much more liable to invorporate ideas derived from analysis of technological trends and the use of products in professional applications, than information derived from social scienc or market research.     

Bringing computer power to the consumer market

Firms in m a y industrial sectors are seeking to capitalize on the promise of new information technology to generate new consumer products which can gain substantial markets. Where these are improved versions of familiar products, the marketing task is relatively easy, but many of the new product opportunities involve radically new types of consumer good and/or service. Drawing on studies of efforts to establish such radical innovations, this paper examines the problems that are confornted in attempting to define what sort of product is actually being created and how it may fit into consume life-styles. Though there is considerable discussion of these topics in industrial circles, it appears that until late stages of product development, little serious analysis of social issues is undertaken— if at all. Furthemore, such discussio of the nature and use of products are more intended to mobilize the group of actors who are needed to support the innovation than to feed substantial information about possible user reqquirements into the design process. The design process is much more liable to invorporate ideas derived from analysis of technological trends and the use of products in professional applications, than information derived from social scienc or market research.     

Interlinkage in the endogenous real business cycles of international economies

Summary This study investigates interlinkage among the business cycles of countries from the viewpoint of endogenous real business cycles. For this purpose, we build a simple perfect foresight equilibrium model with two countries and characterize the global dynamics of a free-trade equilibrium as well as that of each country's autarky equilibrium by means of the fundamental structure of an economy.We are greatful to Murray Kemp, Mukul Majumdar, Takashi Negishi, Marcus Noland, Ian Novos, Jose Scheinkman and an anonymous referee for useful conversations and suggestions.     

Discoveries, innovations, and business cycles

There is considerable evidence that the density of basic innovations is peaked at definite periods with intervals of about 40–60 years. This has been used as support for the behavior of economic cycles as postulated by Kontradieff and amplified by Schumpeter. Recently some economists have used this model to forecast economic recovery in the middle or late 1980s.This paper points out that the shape of the clusters of innovation or inventions are different and sharper than those of economic depression or economic recovery. The transfer of knowledge from basic inventions to industrial innovations shortens as one moves from the 18th to the 20th century, and some probable explanations for this are offered. The importance of discoveries and limited discoveries to the process of invention and innovation is discussed. Also shown is that discoveries reveal cluster phenomena which are functionally related to the clusters of invention and innovation.     

Return policies, market outcomes, and consumer welfare

Abstract.  The effect of return policies on market outcomes is studied in a model where consumers differ in their valuations of time. Product reliability is identified with defect rates. Producers first choose reliability levels and then compete in prices. For given defect rates, allowing returns makes products closer substitutes, enhancing competition and reducing prices. Being closer substitutes makes higher reliability less worthwhile, which reduces reliability. While the decrease in reliability reduces consumer welfare, the decrease in prices raises it. The latter dominates, so that aggregate consumer welfare increases with return policy.     

Asymmetric information, financial intermediation, and business cycles

Summary. This incorporates a debt contracting problem with asymmetric information into a standard monetary business cycle model. The model incorporates a limited participation assumption in order to induce a liquidity effect of monetary shocks and propagate monetary disturbances. The model economy shows that a positive money supply shock generates a decrease in nominal interest rates and an increase in output level. Asymmetric information amplifies the response of capital to the money supply shock, but does not propagate them in other ways. When the monetary shock is an innovation in reserve requirements, it induces a persistent response of the economy. Received: March 20, 1998; revised version: 1 April 1998     

Consumption,wealth and business cycles in Germany

This paper studies the long-run relationship between consumption, asset wealth and income—the consumption–wealth ratio—based on German data from 1980 to 2003. We find that departures from this long-run relationship mainly predict adjustments in income. The German consumption–wealth ratio also contains considerable forecasting power for a range of business cycle indicators, including the unemployment rate. This finding is in contrast to earlier studies for some of the Anglo-Saxon economies that have shown that the consumption–wealth ratio reverts to its long-run mean mainly through subsequent adjustments in asset prices. While the German consumption wealth ratio contains little information about future changes in German asset prices, we report that the U.S. consumption–wealth ratio has considerable forecasting power for the German stock market. One explanation of these findings is that in Germany—due to structural differences in the financial and pension systems—the share of publicly traded equity in aggregate household wealth is much smaller than in the Anglo-Saxon countries. We discuss the implications of our results for the measurement of a potential wealth effect on consumption. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Deutsche Bundesbank. We gratefully acknowledge comments and suggestions from an anonymous referee as well as from Heinz Herrmann, Helmut Lütkepohl, the editor, Baldev Raj, Burkhard Raunig, Monika Schnitzer, Harald Uhlig and Christian Upper. We also benefitted from comments by seminar participants at the ECB, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the CESifo Macro, Money and International Finance Area Conference 2005, the EEA 2005 annual congress and at the 2005 IAEA Meetings. Last but not least, we would like to thank Mark Weth for very useful information concerning the construction of the financial wealth data. Hoffmann’s work on this paper is also part of the project The International Allocation of Risk funded by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft in the framework of SFB 475. Responsibility for any remaining errors and shortcomings is entirely our own.     

Agency costs and business cycles

Summary. This paper develops a model with endogenous agency costs that is otherwise quite similar to the canonical real business cycle model. The traditional assumption in the literature is that these agency costs arise in the production of investment goods. In contrast, this paper assumes that these costs are all encompassing in the sense that they arise in the production of aggregate output. The paper explores both the importance of the investment vs. output assumption for business cycle dynamics, and the conditions under which these agency models can deliver amplification and/or persistence. The paper has two principal conclusions. First, in terms of amplification and propagation, the output model performs worse than does the investment model. This arises because a variable distortion in the investment market has more of an impact than a comparable distortion in the output market. Second, in this model with optimal consumption choice by entrepreneurs, there is a clear tension between amplification and persistence. Received: December 30, 1997; revised version: April 1, 1998     

Can market power sustain endogenous growth in overlapping-generations economies?

Summary. Sustained endogenous growth is known to be impossible in OLG one-sector models without non-convexities and externalities, unless income is redistributed to the young generation. No redistribution proper is however necessary, as shown in two simple examples, if positive profits accruing to young monopolistic entrepreneurs can be sustained in equilibrium, and/or if young unionised workers can guarantee a non-vanishing share of aggregate income. In this context, market power appears, in two different forms, as a significant source of sustained endogenous growth. Received: October 3, 2000; revised version: March 9, 2001     

Product cycles, endogenous skill acquisition, and wage inequality

Abstract .  This paper presents an endogenous product cycle overlapping generations model, where the supply of skilled labour is endogenously determined. This is used to examine how production shifts through imitation by developing countries affect the domestic wage differential and supply of skilled labour in developed countries. In the model, production shifts increase the demand for researchers in developed countries and cause higher relative wages for skilled labour: this leads to more individuals acquiring the skills. As a consequence, the model helps to explain the simultaneous increase in the domestic wage gap and in the supply of skilled labour observed in developed countries.     

Countercyclical markups and news-driven business cycles

The standard one-sector real business cycle model is unable to generate expectations-driven fluctuations. The addition of countercyclical markups and modest investment adjustment costs offers an easy fix to this conundrum. The simulated model replicates the regular features of U.S. aggregate fluctuations.     

Global banking and international business cycles

This paper incorporates a global bank into a two-country business cycle model. The bank collects deposits from households and makes loans to entrepreneurs, in both countries. It has to finance a fraction of loans using equity. We investigate how such a bank capital requirement affects the international transmission of productivity and loan default shocks. Three findings emerge. First, the bank's capital requirement has little effect on the international transmission of productivity shocks. Second, the contribution of loan default shocks to business cycle fluctuations is negligible under normal economic conditions. Third, an exceptionally large loan loss originating in one country induces a sizeable and simultaneous decline in economic activity in both countries. This is particularly noteworthy, as the 2007–09 global financial crisis was characterized by large credit losses in the US and a simultaneous sharp output reduction in the US and the Euro Area. Our results thus suggest that global banks may have played an important role in the international transmission of the crisis.     

International asset market, nonconvergence, and endogenous fluctuations

We develop an overlapping generations model with re-tradeable paper assets and capital accumulation to analyze the interaction between the real economy and an international asset market. The world consists of two homogeneous countries, which differ only in their initial levels of capital. Consumers who live for two periods transfer wealth over time and across countries by holding international mutual funds which pay stochastic dividends. The optimal portfolio decisions of consumers do not necessarily induce convergence of incomes between the two countries. Moreover, interaction through the asset market induces endogenous fluctuation of capital flows between the rich and the poor country.     

Stock market cycles and stock market development in Spain

In this paper we use Spanish stock market data to identify the bull and bear phases of the market and to analyze its characteristics during the period 1941-2002. We compare these characteristics with those of the US and of two other European countries (Germany and the UK). Our sample is divided in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the process of development undergone by Spanish capital markets in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We find that the Spanish stock market has become increasingly more similar to those of the more developed countries, although some differences still persist. Additionally, we show that concordance of the Spanish stock market with other developed markets has increased quite significantly.JEL Classification: C22, G15An earlier version of the paper circulated under the title Bulls and bears: lessons from some European countries. Comments from seminar participants at the Universidad de Navarra, at the IX Meeting of the Spanish Finance Association (Pamplona 2001) and at the Royal Econonomic Society Conference (Warwick 2002) are gratefully acknowledged. We are very grateful to J.M. Campa, G. Llorente and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank D. Garcia and the Research Department of the Madrid Stock Exchange for generously providing the data of the Spanish case. Financial assistance from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology (SEC2002-01839) is gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Labor market cycles, unemployment insurance eligibility, and moral hazard

If entitlement to UI benefits must be earned with employment, generous UI is an additional benefit to working, so, by itself, it promotes job creation. If individuals are risk neutral, then there is a UI contribution scheme that eliminates any effect of UI on employment decisions. As with Ricardian Equivalence, this result should be useful to pinpoint the effects of UI to violations of its premises. Our baseline simulation shows that if the neutral contribution scheme derived in this paper were to be implemented, the average unemployment rate in the United States would fall from 5.7 to 4.7 percent. Also, the results show that with endogenous UI eligibility, one can simultaneously generate realistic productivity driven cycles and realistic responses of unemployment to changes in UI benefits.