The “Vision for Space Exploration” of President George W. Bush, space science, and U.S. space policy

On January 14, 2004 President George W. Bush announced a major overhaul of U.S. space exploration strategy and infrastructure, stipulating that NASA complete the International Space Station (ISS) and retire the Space Shuttle fleet by 2010, develop a new suite of launch and exploration vehicles for deployment shortly thereafter, and embark on a program of human exploration of the solar system with crewed landings on the moon by 2020 and, eventually, Mars. The “Vision for Space Exploration” would be funded by resources liberated by the end of the International Space Station construction and the Shuttle program, assuming a very modestly increasing NASA budget. While this decision marks a decisive attempt to grapple with longstanding issues concerning the Space Shuttle and station, it has stimulated both optimism and fear within the space community. There is skepticism about its intent, its feasibility, and concern for the effects on various areas of space science and technology. This decision is similar to other, major such initiatives in the history of NASA and space flight, relies on longstanding scenarios and models, and much of its content has been proposed unsuccessfully in the past.     

What have we learned from a decade of empirical research on growth? Comment on It's Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models,' by William Easterly and Ross Levine

When economists in the 1950s and 1960s used growth models tounderstand the experience of developing countries, they allowedfor the possibility of technology differences between developingcountries and the United States. But because they did not havea good theory for talking about the forces that determined thelevel of the technology—in the United States any morethan in developing countries—technology factors tendedto be pushed into the background in policy discussions.     

The financial crisis: What is there to learn?

Many are currently studying the origins of the financial crisis in an attempt to answer two seemingly simple questions: why did it happen, and can another crisis be prevented? Those two questions have proved incredibly divisive. The majority opinion of The United States Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission was submitted with two dissenting positions. Furthermore, The 2010 Economic Report of the United States President does not perfectly align with any opinion presented in that report. Few studies, however, provide proper consideration to the evolution of macroeconomic thought and lengthening of the business cycle preceding the current crisis.     

Launching a world-class joint venture

More than 5,000 joint ventures, and many more contractual alliances, have been launched worldwide in the past five years. Companies are realizing that JVs and alliances can be lucrative vehicles for developing new products, moving into new markets, and increasing revenues. The problem is, the success rate for JVs and alliances is on a par with that for mergers and acquisitions--which is to say not very good. The authors, all McKinsey consultants, argue that JV success remains elusive for most companies because they don't pay enough attention to launch planning and execution. Most companies are highly disciplined about integrating the companies they target through M&A, but they rarely commit sufficient resources to launching similarly sized joint ventures or alliances. As a result, the parent companies experience strategic conflicts, governance gridlock, and missed operational synergies. Often, they walk away from the deal. The launch phase begins with the parent companies' signing of a memorandum of understanding and continues through the first 100 days of the JV or alliance's operation. During this period, it's critical for the parents to convene a team dedicated to exposing inherent tensions early. Specifically, the launch team must tackle four basic challenges. First, build and maintain strategic alignment across the separate corporate entities, each of which has its own goals, market pressures, and shareholders. Second, create a shared governance system for the two parent companies. Third, manage the economic interdependencies between the corporate parents and the JV. And fourth, build a cohesive, high-performing organization (the JV or alliance)--not a simple task, since most managers come from, will want to return to, and may even hold simultaneous positions in the parent companies. Using real-world examples, the authors offer their suggestions for meeting these challenges.     

Symmetric ignorance: The cost of anonymous lemons

Rules that restrict information required in negotiated private transactions have spurred a vast increase in the scope of anonymous financial markets, particularly in the United States. The subtle costs of the information-restricting rules raise questions about the social value of “completing” anonymous markets that would not naturally survive and did not historically exist.     

Focusing on Fannie and Freddie: The Dilemmas of Reforming Housing Finance

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are unique and controversial participants in the housing finance system of the United States. Because of these enterprises' federal government charters, the financial markets believe that the government would not allow Fannie and Freddie to fail to honor their debt obligations, and they are thereby able to borrow more cheaply in credit markets; in turn, they lower interest rates for residential mortgages. If the financial markets are right, however, Freddie and Fannie also create a contingent liability for the government. Though there are positive externalities from home ownership, the Fannie/Freddie route is far too broad and unfocused to address those externalities effectively. Privatization, accompanied by targeted federal assistance for potential first-time low- and moderate-income home buyers, would be a superior policy direction.     

美国会计博士生培养方式及其启示

优秀的会计师资是世界各国院校稀缺的人力资源,而高质量的会计博士教育是达到这一目标的首要前提。本文详细阐述美国会计博士的招生、培养、去向,为我国会计博士的培养方式提供借鉴。本文提出,我国应实行独立的博士生与导师关系,大力提高会计教师职业的市场竞争力,以期实现高质量的博士生教育,并提高我国会计研究水平。     

AN ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF SECURITIZING INSURANCE RISK VIA ONSHORE SPECIAL PURPOSE VEHICLES

ABSTRACT: The increased risk from natural disasters in the United States has prompted innovations in alternative forms of risk transfer and financing. Among the mechanisms that have been developed are Special Purpose Reinsurance Vehicles (SPRVs) designed to hold and segregate funds supporting a risk securitization. SPRVs have been principally formed outside the United States for tax and regulatory reasons. The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) and the states are considering proposed model legislation that will facilitate the formation of SPRVs in the United States. Proponents also will be seeking federal tax legislation that will facilitate onshore securitization. This article examines important economic and tax issues involved with onshore SPRVs. The authors conclude that properly regulated onshore securitization vehicles could aid the diversification of high-layer catastrophe risks and other risks with similar characteristics. The proposed tax changes may create a modest inequity between special purpose vehicles and traditional reinsurers, depending on one's perspective. However, if governed by an appropriate tax and regulatory framework, onshore securitization used for appropriate purposes should benefit consumers and not erode the demand for conventional reinsurance for the types of risks it is best suited to manage.     

Alternative Forms of Mixing Banking with Commerce: Evidence from American History

Much of the discussion about banking and commerce in America has failed to make several crucial distinctions and has not accounted for many arrangements that have promoted the mixing of these activities. We investigate the history of banking and commerce in the United States, looking both at bank control of commercial firms and commercial firms' control of banks. We trace how these controls have changed with shifting definitions of "bank" and changing methods of "control." Despite the regulations prohibiting some arrangements that promote financial control, we find evidence of extensive linkages between banking and commerce in the United States. These linkages usually build on devices that are very close substitutes to the arrangements prohibited by law. Altogether, our findings question the often made claim that traditionally banking in the United States has been separated from commerce. Furthermore, given that research on Japan and Germany has shown that the mixing of banking and commerce matters for a variety of issues, our evidence also raises some questions on similar research in the United States which makes the simplifying assumption that these industries are separated.     

Prospects for external sources of vehicle propulsion: Results of a Delphi study

This article presents the outcome of a Delphi study carried out between October 1995 and February 1996. The subject of the study is external sources of vehicle propulsion, and its possible role in achieving more sustainable modes of transportation. The Delphi study concludes that external propulsion technologies are unlikely to be the substitute for internal combustion engines. External sources of power or energy are potentially a means of saving energy, because the weight of vehicles can be reduced and energy can be produced on a large scale thus boosting efficiency. However, there is no practical system by which these advantages can be realized without putting an unacceptable strain on the quality of the transport system. The costs would be huge; there would be considerable energy losses; safety problems could arise; and the flexibility of the users is limited. Electric vehicles could, however, become important. Pantographs and quick charging techniques could become important technologies if battery technology will not improve considerably.     

Low‐income,low‐asset debtors in the U.S. bankruptcy system

The United States' bankruptcy system faces a major problem: many consumers are too poor to file for bankruptcy, usually because they cannot afford the necessary attorney fees. Some consumers appear to spend months trying to save the funds to pay their attorneys, thus either delaying their bankruptcies or foregoing bankruptcy altogether when they fail to save enough money. Others file for repayment bankruptcy in order to pay attorney fees during the case, when liquidation bankruptcy is usually a better fit for consumers with low incomes and low asset levels. The most recent comprehensive bankruptcy reform, the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA), exacerbated these problems by implementing additional procedural requirements that resulted in attorneys raising their fees. These problems have led to calls for administrative bankruptcy, especially for low‐income, low‐asset (LILA)/no‐income, no‐asset (NINA) debtors. Administrative bankruptcy would make bankruptcy more accessible by lowering access costs, for example, by eliminating the need for consumers to hire attorneys. Administrative programs in the United States, however, have a history of long‐term decline, especially when these programs serve low‐income people. It has become a cliché that poor people's programs become poor programs. A better solution would be to eliminate the procedural requirements imposed by BAPCPA and simplify the decision consumers must make about which type of bankruptcy to use.     

CRM done right

Disappointed by the high costs and elusive benefits, early adopters of customer relationship management systems came, in the post dot-com era, to view the technology as just another overhyped IT investment whose initial promise would never be fulfilled. But this year, something unexpected is happening. System sales are rising, and executives are reporting satisfaction with their CRM investments. What's changed? A wide range of companies are successfully taking a pragmatic, disciplined approach to CRM. Rather than use it to transform entire businesses, they've directed their investments toward solving clearly defined problems within their customer relationship cycle. The authors have distilled the experiences of these CRM leaders into four questions that all companies should ask themselves as they launch their own CRM initiatives: Is the problem strategic? Is the system focused on the pain point? Do we need perfect data? What's the right way to expand an initial implementation? The questions reflect a new realism about when and how to deploy CRM to best advantage. Understanding that highly accurate and timely data are not required everywhere in their businesses, CRM leaders have tailored their real-time initiatives to those customer relationships that can be significantly enhanced by "perfect" information. Once they've succeeded with their first targeted CRM project, they can use it as a springboard for solving additional problems. CRM, in other words, is coming to resemble any other valuable management tool, and the keys to successful implementation are also becoming familiar: strong executive and business-unit leadership, careful strategic planning, clear performance measures, and a coordinated program that combines organizational and process changes with the application of new technology.     

The United States as an informed foreign-exchange speculator

US exchange-market interventions have no direct effect on market fundamentals, but they may influence expectations. If intervention has value as a forecast of exchange-rate movements, knowledge that the United States is trading will cause dealers to alter their prior estimates of the distribution of exchange-rate changes. This paper finds that US intervention has had value only as a forecast that recent exchange-rate movements would moderate. Less than half of the interventions, however, seemed successful, and the favorable results were generally confined to two short periods that were characterized by uncertainty about future Federal Reserve policies.     

对我国金融信息安全的观察与思考—基于“棱镜门”事件

2013年6月20日《华盛顿邮报》指出,"棱镜计划"隶属于一个庞大的监听体系。该体系被拆分成四个主要计划,除棱镜外,还有主干道、码头和核子三个分支。这一系列网络监控计划暴露了美国一直在谋求网络空间霸权地位,并在长期实施全球网络监控计划,这对我国网络空间安全敲响了警钟,特别是关系我国国民经济命脉的金融行业。本文将通过对棱镜门事件的述评,分析其后深层次的美国全球网络空间霸权战略,为我国金融信息安全的长远发展提供参考。     

Laboratory evidence on the effectiveness of corporate leniency programs

The number of cartels detected in the United States and in Europe has increased considerably since the introduction of corporate leniency programs in antitrust legislation. It cannot, however, be ruled out that this apparent success results in part from increased cartel activity. We explore the effects of corporate leniency programs on pricing and cartel activity by use of an experiment. We find that in the lab (i) fewer cartels are established when a leniency program is in place, and (ii) cartels that do exist are less successful in charging prices above the static Nash equilibrium price and have lower survival rates.     

The market price of risk and the equity premium: A legacy of the Great Depression?

By positing learning and a pessimistic initial prior, we build a model that disconnects a representative consumer's subjective attitudes toward risk from the high price of risk that a rational-expectations econometrician would deduce from financial market data. We follow Friedman and Schwartz [1963. A Monetary History of the United States, 1857-1960. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ] in hypothesizing that the Great Depression heightened fears of economic instability. We use a robustness calculation to elicit a pessimistic prior for a representative consumer and let him update beliefs via Bayes’ law. Learning eventually erases pessimism, but while it persists, pessimism contributes a volatile multiplicative component to the stochastic discount factor that a rational-expectation econometrician would detect. With sufficient initial pessimism, the model generates substantial values for the market price of risk and equity premium and predicts high Sharpe ratios and forecastable excess stock returns.     

The real new economy

During the soar-and-swoon days of the late 1990s, many people believed that information technology, and the Internet in particular, were "changing everything" in business. A fundamental change did happen in the 1990s, but it was less about technology than about competition. Under director Diana Farrell, the McKinsey Global Institute has conducted an extensive study of productivity and its connection to corporate IT spending and use during that period. The study revealed that information technology is important--but not central--to the fate of industries and individual companies. So if information technology was not the primary factor in the productivity surge, what was? The study points to competition and innovation. In those industries that saw increases in competitive intensity, managers were forced to innovate aggressively to protect their revenues and profits. Those innovations--in products, business practices, and technology--led to the gains in productivity. In fact, a critical dynamic of the new economy--the real new economy--is the virtuous cycle of competition, innovation, and productivity growth. Managers can innovate in many ways, but during the 1990s, information technology was a particularly powerful tool, for three reasons: First, IT enabled the development of attractive new products and efficient new business processes. Second, it facilitated the rapid industrywide diffusion of innovations. And third, it exhibited strong scale economies--its benefits multiplied rapidly as its use expanded. This article reveals surprising data on how various industries in the United States and Europe were affected by competition, innovation, and information technology in the 1990s and offers insights about how managers can get more from their IT investments.     

The Separation of Banking and Commerce in the United States: An Examination of Principal Issues

Banking law and regulation in the United States have customarily restricted the nonbanking activities of banks and the banking activities of nonbanking firms, producing a separation of banking from commerce. While such separation is surprising in a free market system that, in general, permits private firms to engage in any lawful business, it is understandable in an historical and institutional context. Proposals for change raise a wide range of economic and other issues. This paper identifies, catalogues, and elaborates these issues to provide a framework for informed judgment and further investigation. It begins with a review of early restrictions on bank activities in the United States and contrasts U.S. developments with those in several other countries in which banks have not been separated from commercial and industrial firms. It, then, reviews relevant issues arising in the financial sector, commercial sector, related to central banking and supervision, and socio‐political concerns. It concludes that limited banking, as it exists in the United States, and universal banking, as it exists in other countries, have differential benefits and costs. Summary evaluation based on standard cost benefit analysis, however, presents serious difficulties. Considerable uncertainty remains about effects in a number of areas. Many of the costs and benefits are not quantifiable, and some that are quantifiable are incomparable. A careful review of all existing evidence, identification of gaps, and further investigation is needed.     

全球金融市场法人识别码系统的构建及其对中国的启示

2008年9月爆发的全球金融危机昭示了以美国为代表的主要发达经济体的金融监管体制存在重大缺陷。为此,各国纷纷大刀阔斧地改革本国的金融监管体制,而全面强化宏观审慎监管以防范系统性金融风险的爆发与蔓延则成为后危机时代全球金融监管改革的主旋律。在此背景下,美国于2010年底率先提出了为金融市场构建法人识别码（Legal Entity Identifier）系统的这一方案。2011年以来,在美国的积极倡导下,构建全球金融市场法人识别码系统的方案日渐成熟;2012年6月,＂二十国集团＂洛斯卡沃斯峰会不仅正式批准了由金融稳定理事会（Financial Stability Board）提交的构建全球金融市场法人识别码系统的草案,而且还提出力争在2013年3月基本完成该系统的筹建这一目标。构建全球金融市场法人识别码系统是后危机时代加强全球金融监管合作以及推动国际金融监管框架改革的重大举措,其必将对全球各国的金融监管体制改革产生重大而深远的影响。