Searching for value relevance of book value and earnings: a case of premium versus discount firms

We examine the premium/discount firm characteristic that fundamentally affects the value relevance of two key accounting line items, earnings and book values. We argue that from the perspective of both the residual income and option-style valuation models, the relative valuation roles of earnings and book values differ fundamentally between firms that trade at a premium vis-à-vis discount to book value. We find that book values play a significantly more important role in equity valuation than earnings when firms trade at a discount. We also find that other known influential conditions, such as the sign of earnings (Collins et al. in Acc Rev 74(1):29–61, 1999) or the relative levels of earnings and book value (Burgstahler and Dichev in Acc Rev 72(2):187–215, 1997), become inconsequential when the premium/discount condition of the firm is controlled for. The discovered relationships between the relative valuation roles of book values and earnings and the discount/premium characteristics of the firm are robust to the effect of time, information environment and the industry of the firm.     

Correction to: using accounting earnings and aggregate economic indicators to estimate firm-level systematic risk

Review of Accounting Studies - A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-021-09637-1     

Using accounting earnings and aggregate economic indicators to estimate firm-level systematic risk

Review of Accounting Studies - We revisit the literature on using accounting earnings to estimate firm-level systematic risk, using macroeconomic indicators rather than listed-firm indexes to...     

The impact of IFRS adoption on the value relevance of book value and earnings

In this study, we investigate the impact of IFRS adoption in Europe and Australia on the relevance of book value and earnings for equity valuation. Using a sample of 3488 firms that initially adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in 2005, we are able to compare the figures originally reported for the 2004 fiscal years to the IFRS figures that were provided in 2005 as the 2004 IFRS comparative figures. As part of the inquiry, we introduce a cross-product term, equal to the product of EPS and BVPS, into the traditional linear pricing models. The estimated coefficient on the cross-product term is statistically significant and negative, as theory suggests in the presence of important nonlinearities. Further, there is increased non-linearity in the data subsequent to IFRS adoption, with the increase being most pronounced for firms in Common Law countries. With non-linear effects controlled for, there is no observed change in price relevance for firms in either Code Law or Common Law countries, contradicting the results from the linear pricing models. The results also suggest that the distribution of measurement errors becomes more similar across Code Law and Common Law countries after the adoption of IFRS, removing one difference between these groups. Thus, IFRS enhances comparability, an inference that would not be possible had we confined the analysis only to linear pricing models.     

The changing relationship between earnings expectations and earnings for value and growth stocks during Reg FD

Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) altered the voluntary disclosure practices of firms with publicly traded securities, thereby affecting relationships between value and growth stock expectations and actual earnings. The results show that earnings forecasts for both stock groups are biased but that bias is less after the introduction of Reg FD. In fact, the difference in pre/post FD forecast bias is larger for growth stocks, suggesting that before Reg FD, analysts did not just misinterpret news but consciously tried to maintain relationships with growth firm managers. However, Reg FD limited these relationships severing the monetary advantage that might be gained from manipulating forecasts.     

Connecting book rate of return to risk and return: the information conveyed by conservative accounting

Review of Accounting Studies - This paper revises the standard interpretation of the book rate of return as a measure of profitability. Rather, due to conservative accounting, the book rate of...     

Development of accounting in Poland: Market efficiency and the value relevance of reported earnings

This paper outlines the evolution of the information environment surrounding the Warsaw Stock Exchange in Poland. Like other transition economies, Poland needed to develop accounting regulations to support privatization. We trace changes in financial reporting regulation from 1994, through the adoption of IFRS and corporate governance codes, to the crisis of 2007-2008. The effect of these developments is then evaluated empirically by testing the relevance of earnings of listed corporations from 1997 to 2008 to corporate value. We show that the stock exchange was weak-form efficient during this period and estimate regressions for value relevance of earnings to corporate value. We find positive evidence of such relevance but no improvement in the strength of the relationship over time.     

The options market response to accounting earnings announcements

We examine the reaction of the equity options market to accounting earnings announcements over the period 1996–2008 using changes in implied volatility to measure the options market response to earnings news. We find that positive earnings surprises and positive profit announcements produce a larger uncertainty resolution than negative earnings surprises and loss announcements. We demonstrate an inverse relation between the change in implied volatility and earnings news in a three-day window immediately after an earnings announcement. We refer to the magnitude of this relation as the ‘options market earnings response coefficient’. This ‘options market earnings response coefficient’ is stronger for both bad news announcements and positive profit announcements. We do not find any significant relation between changes in implied volatility and earnings news in the pre- or post-announcement periods. We conclude that the options market efficiently absorbs earnings information.     

Negative accounting earnings and gross domestic product

Review of Accounting Studies - Konchitchki and Patatoukas Journal of Accounting and Economics 57 (1-2), 76–88, (2014a) show that aggregate accounting earnings growth predicts future nominal...     

Analysts’ stock recommendations,earnings growth and risk

A key output of sell‐side analysts is their recommendations to investors as to whether they should, buy, hold or sell a company's shares. However, relatively little is known regarding the determinants of those recommendations. This study considers this question, presenting results that suggest that recommendations are dependent on analysts’ short‐term and long‐term earnings growth forecasts, as well as on proxies for the analysts’ unobservable views on earnings growth in the more distant future and risk. Furthermore, analysts who appear to incorporate earnings growth beyond the long‐term growth forecast horizons and risk into their recommendation decisions make more profitable stock recommendations.     

Detecting news in aggregate accounting earnings: implications for stock market valuation

How much news is there in aggregate accounting earnings? I provide evidence that earnings changes at the stock market level are correlated with new information about not only expected future cash flows but also discount rates. A comprehensive investigation of the link to discount rates reveals that aggregate earnings changes are tied to news about all components of the expected future stock market return, i.e., the real riskless rate, expected inflation, and the expected equity risk premium. Over the sample period studied, cash flow news and discount rate news in aggregate earnings changes covary positively and have offsetting impacts on stock market prices. As a result, stock market prices appear to be insensitive to aggregate earnings changes. The findings highlight the importance of separating cash flow news from discount rate news when evaluating the information content of accounting earnings at the stock market level. Overall, my study sheds new light on the informativeness and relevance of accounting earnings for valuation at the stock market level.     

Hedging,hedge accounting,and earnings predictability

Review of Accounting Studies - Studies suggest that, pursuant to the implementation of SFAS 133, even sophisticated users of financial statements find it difficult to comprehend earnings...     

The usefulness of accounting estimates for predicting cash flows and earnings

Accounting estimates and projections potentially improve the relevance of financial information by providing managers a venue to convey to investors forward-looking, inside information. The quality of financial information is, however, compromised by the increasing difficulty of making reliable estimates and forecasts and the frequent managerial misuse of estimates. Given the ever-increasing prevalence of estimates in accounting data, particularly due to the move to fair value accounting, whether these opposing forces result in an improvement in the quality of financial information is among the most fundamental issues in accounting. We examine the contribution of accounting estimates embedded in accruals to the quality of financial information, as reflected by their usefulness in the prediction of enterprise cash flows and earnings. Our out-of-sample prediction tests indicate that accounting estimates beyond those in working capital items (excluding inventory) do not improve the prediction of cash flows. Estimates do, however, improve the prediction of next year’s earnings, though not of subsequent years’ earnings. We conclude that the usefulness of accounting estimates to investors is limited and provide suggestions for improving the usefulness of estimates.     

Regulatory oversight and trade-offs in earnings management: evidence from pension accounting

Review of Accounting Studies - I develop approaches that quantify the use of discretion for the three main assumptions used for the financial reporting of defined benefit pension obligations: the...     

Improving earnings quality: The effect of reporting incentives and accounting standards

We investigate the different effects on earnings quality of accounting standards and reporting incentives for Germany over the period 1994 to 2005. To this end, we control for reporting incentives at the firm level, instead of the country level, by using the timing of voluntary IFRS adoption as a proxy for reporting incentives. We then include reporting incentives in an analysis of earnings management and information asymmetry. Contrary to common expectation, we find that IFRS reporting potentially decreases earnings quality on average; but also that reporting incentives appear to have lower effects on earnings quality in IFRS statements than in GGAAP statements. Thus, IFRS may lead to more homogenous earnings quality across firms.     

Fair value accounting: Simulacra and simulation

The paper examines the application of simulacra and simulation in fair value accounting for financial instruments in the U.S. As copies of copies, simulacra problematize the notion of an original and with it an imaginary of a single authentic reality. We examine simulacra as they have been applied in two interconnected fair value accounting arenas. Firstly, simulacra employed as a measurement basis for certain financial instruments. In this regard, we challenge the FASB's insistence that fair value accounting is an originary market based measurement system. Secondly, we examine the process of simulation as employed by the FASB in copying and amending FAS 157 in its subsequent modifications to the guidance provided to the preparers of financial statements. Our purpose here is to both reinforce the absence of a market reality and also to illustrate how the FASB's subsequent modifications to FAS 157 were shaped by political forces. We conclude with some suggestions as to how simulacra and a politicization process might be productively embraced in future fair value accounting endeavors.     

Transitory earnings components and the two faces of non‐generally accepted accounting principles earnings

Non‐generally accepted accounting principles (non‐GAAP) earnings reporting has been linked with both informative and strategic incentives. We seek to disentangle these conflicting effects by examining the association between non‐GAAP earnings disclosure and transitory items in GAAP earnings, conditional on managers' reporting incentives. We report evidence of a statistically and economically significant asymmetric relation between disclosure propensity and transitory items in GAAP earnings conditional on both the sign and magnitude of the GAAP earnings surprise. Our findings suggest that non‐GAAP earnings disclosures tend to be driven by a desire for informative (strategic) reporting when GAAP earnings beat (undershoot) market expectations.     

Expected earnings growth and the cost of capital: an analysis of accounting regime change in the European financial market

This study focuses on the relation between the cost of equity capital and earnings expectations when the properties of accounting that determine earnings vary across different regulatory regimes. More particularly, it addresses the European setting where different types of GAAP regime have continued to function in the presence of the gradual harmonization of the underlying legal framework, and where the adoption of internationally recognized accounting standards by certain firms has anticipated the requirement for International Financial Reporting Standards. On the basis of estimates of the cost of equity that are implied by analysts' earnings forecasts, the article provides evidence that financial market integration may have already contributed to mitigating the economic consequences of accounting diversity, and that switching to IFRS could have a short lived impact on capital markets. Moreover, based on firm level transparency and disclosure rankings provided by Standard and Poor's, it is shown how the quality of financial reporting conditions the implied cost of equity under different GAAP.     

Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: Their value to investors

This paper attempts to determine whether financial analysts' forecasts of earnings are useful to investors. This is accomplished by devising and evaluating the performance of trading rules under which transactions are triggered by revisions in earnings forecasts. The main finding is that an investor who acts upon the publicly available revisions of earnings forecasts can consistently outperform a buy-and-hold policy; in fact, such an investor could more than double his return. The results are inconsistent with the efficient market-hypothesis and indicate that the market reacts gradually rather than instantaneously to new information.