Characterizations of distributions via linearity of regression of generalized order statistics

Let X (r, n, m, k), 1 r n, denote generalized order statistics based on an absolutely continuous distribution function F. We characterize all distribution functions F for which the following linearity of regression holds E(X(r+l,n,m,k) | X(r,n,m,k))=aX(r,n,m,k)+b.We show that only exponential, Pareto and power distributions satisfy this equation. Using this result one can obtain characterizations of exponential, Pareto and power distributions in terms of sequential order statistics, Pfeifers records and progressive type II censored order statistics. Received July 2001/Revised August 2002     

Optimality of block designs with variable block sizes and random block effects

We consider the simple block model with random block effects, the block effects having variance _b ² =²;, with ² the variance of the errors. It is assumed that the experimenter can vary the sizes of the blocks. The universal optimality of certain designs for all over all designs with the same number of blocks and the same number of observations is shown. It is of interest to note that if Balanced Incomplete Block Designs compete, then they perform equally well for =0 and for =, i.e. in the one way classification model and in the simple block model with fixed block effects, but they perform worse for every (0, ).The result is, however, theoretical in nature. It treats a situation which is not very likely to happen in practice. The interest lies in the fact that it provides a counterexample to a conjecture on optimality of designs in mixed models.     

Optimality and efficiency of circular neighbor balanced designs for correlated observations

The purpose of this paper is to apply the Kunert and Martins (2000b) method for finding optimal designs into the case of dependence. Using this method we study optimality of circular neighbor balanced designs at distances 1 and 2 under the one-dimensional interference model with errors correlated according to a circular autoregressive process. We determine the efficiency of binary designs for specified values of correlation coefficient, for which these designs are not optimal.Research partially supported by the KBN Grant Number 5 P03A 041 21.     

The economic transformation of Eastern Europe: the case of Poland

This article identifies the main features of Poland's radical transition to capitalism-stabilization program, trade liberalization, and privatization reform. The shock therapy adopted by Poland in 1991 is presented as the most effective approach, though not without political risk. In fact, the major threat to Poland's transition process is the emergence of well organized interest groups putting increasing demand on the government to relax financial restrictions and re-open large-scale subsidization. These political pressures have already caused a slowdown in the privatization program, so that there is a possibility of the renewal of rapid inflation. Several methods for accelerated privatization, including the distribution of vouchers and setting up investment funds to manage portfolios of shares, are discussed in detail.     

Multiple patterns in the dynamics of a stock market model

We study a non-linear model of the interactions between stock market prices and the level of assets owned by investment funds. The model dynamics is described, in continuous time, by a smooth vector field in the plane, which presents, under suitable hypotheses, a unique equilibrium point.Our analisis of the system flow is qualitative and focuses on detecting endogenous fluctuations of the state variables, i.e. on checking existence and number of limit cycles.We prove that several, and quite different, dynamical patterns can occur, even in cases where the system isoclines assume that most simple geometrical forms.It is shown, in particular, that the equilibrium point can undergo either a sub-critical or a super-critical Hopf-bifurcation whenever two economically meaningful exogenous parameters are made to cross a given set of critical values. Hence, in the subcritical case, as a trapping region exists, at least two limit cycles appear.Next, we give analytical examples of model-consistent vector fields which present a multiplicity of fluctuating trends, and prove the apparently surprising result that the number of limit cycles can be as large as one wants, provided a specific isocline assumes a cubic shape.Both authors are members of the Gruppo Nazionale per l'Analisi Funzionale e le sue Applicazioni-G.N.A.F.A. of the Italian Council of Researches-CN.R.The present paper refers to the activities of the National M.U.R.S.T. Group Dinamiche Non Lineari ed Applicazioni alle Scienze Economiche e Sociali.     

A numerical representation of semiorders on a countable set

Let be a semiorder on a countable setX and letx⁰ y if and only if either there existsx withxxy or there existsx withxxy. Then ⁰ is a preference relation with transitive indifference, which can be represented by a utility functionf of the usual sort. It is well known that is represented by a pair of real-valued functionsu, v, in the sense thatxy if and only ifu(x)>v(y). We prove that there exists a pair of functionsu, v, representing , such thatu+v is the utility function which represents in the usual sense. Moreover it is easily seen that, for such a pair of functionsu, v, we havex⁰ y if and only if eitheru(x)>u(y) or (u(x)=u(y) andv(x)>v(y)).

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Sommario Consideriamo unsemiordine su un insiemeX numerabile e poniamox⁰ y se e solo se esistex tale chexxy, oppure esistex tale chexxy. In questo caso ⁰ è unordine debole, che può essere rappresentato da una funzione di utilitàf nel senso usuale. D'altra parte è rappresentato da una coppia di funzioniu, v, nel senso chexy se e solo seu(x)>v(y). In questo lavoro si prova che ammette una rappresentazioneu, v tale chex⁰ y se e solo seu(x)+v(x)>u(y)+v(y). Si dimostra altresì che, con riguardo ad una siffatta rappresentazioneu, v di , riescex⁰ y se e solo seu(x)>u(y) oppure (u(x)=u(y) ed anchev(x)>v(y)).

     

The transition from central planning to a market economy: A computable general equilibrium model

This paper develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the transition from a central planned economy to a market economy. The model is an extension of Wellisz and Findlay's (1986) model of the Soviet second economy. By distinguishing alternative assumptions about the disposition of the government budget, two model variants — the activist and non-activist — are analyzed. Equilibria of these model variants are computed for various parameter specifications of the Kantorovich ray, which represents the stringency of central planners' direction of the economy. The paper shows that increasing efficiency of the private sector, while it reduces the size of government subsidies to the state sector, does not necessarily increase the net government budget.     

Moral suasion: An alternative tax policy strategy? Evidence from a controlled field experiment in Switzerland

With data gained from a controlled field experiment in Switzerland this paper analyses the effects of moral suasion on the timely paying and the timely filling out of the tax form 2001. Comparisons of different tax filing years and multiple regression estimations have been done using these two factors as dependent variables to check if there is a significant difference between the control group and the treatment group. In February 2002 the treatment group received a letter signed by the communes fiscal commissioner containing normative appeals. Results indicate that moral suasion has hardly any effect on taxpayers compliance behaviour. The strongest effect can be observed for the variable tax payments.Received: February 2003, Accepted: June 2004 JEL Classification: H260, H710BennoTorgler: Special thanks are due to the tax administration of Trimbach, especially to Adolf Müller and Gary Bitterli, who offered me the opportunity to collect the data and assisted the project. Furthermore I acknowledge the financial support of the WWZ-Forum and Swiss National Science Foundation and comments and suggestions from Doris Aebi, René L. Frey, the editor Kai A. Konrad and two anonymous referees.     

Sequential allocation to two treatments that converges to an α-superior treatment

Summary Two treatments are being compared as to which has the higher mean response. The response for the 2 treatments is assumed to be normally distributed, with unknown means. Observations are being allocated sequentially to the different treatments, the purpose is to locate the superior treatment, the one with the higher mean response. We are going to find a treatment for which we have 1— confidence of its being superior, we call it then an -superior treatment, Allocation schemes are discussed for which there will be a convergence on an -superior treatment, while heuristically trying to reduce the number of allocations to the inferior treatment. No stopping rule is applied and there is no point at which the experiment is terminated and the use begins, the scheme assures that the allocation will eventually converge on one treatment.     

Investment mobilization and capacity completion in the Chinese and Soviet economies

This paper examines the relationship between the mobilization of resources into capital projects and the completion of new productive capacity in two shortage economies—China and the USSR. Causes of delayed commissioning of new capacity, and the role of unfinished construction in the investment cycle, are analysed. Annual data over a long period are presented for both economies—for the USSR 1928–37 and 1950–83, and for China 1950–82. Changes over time in the relationship between investment mobilization and capacity completion are considered, along with differences and similarities between the records of the two economies under investigation.Department of Economics, University of Warwick. I am grateful for helpful advice and comments received from Julian Cooper and Philip Hanson of the Centre for Russian and East European Studies, University of Birmingham; from Bob Lewis, Department of Economic History, University of Exeter; from Raja Junankar of the Institute of Employment Research, David Rees of the Department of Economics and colleagues of the Development Economics Research Centre seminar, University of Warwick; and from an anonymous referee.     

Das maximale signifikanzniveau des Tests: “LehneH o ab,wennk untern gegebenen tests zur ablehnung führen”

Summary On one sample space there aren tests with critical regionsK ₁ and levels of significance _i ,i=1, ...,n (resp.n eventsK _i in a probability space with probabilities not greater than _i ,i=1, ...,n). In this paper we calculate the smallest upper bound of the level of significance of the test reject the hypothesis, if at leastk among the,n tests do so (resp. of the probability of the event at leastk among then events are realized). By the way, we will show, that this smallest upper bound does not change, if we replace at leastk by exactlyk.     

County capital cities,county public finance and county economic geography

We are interested in the county governments role for the county seat economy. Our suggestion is this: Rather than discuss changes in county seat location at a given budget (representing a rare natural experiment), we should look at changes in county budget holding fixed county seat location (yielding a steady flow of observations). In the papers model changes in the county budget translate into changes in county seat employment. In the papers empirical test against a sample of German county seats we find it difficult to reject this.Received: February 2003, Accepted: Accepted May 2004JEL Classification: R53, H72, R23Kristof Dascher: I have benefitted from comments by three anonymous referees. I am also grateful for financial support from the CEPR research network on Foreign Direct Investment and the Multinational Organization, funded by the European Commission under contract number ERBFMRXCT980215.     

Sulla dipendenza continua della probabilità di rovina dal caricamento dei premi

Si studia un modo di approssimare la probabilità di rovina relativa a un caricamento ₀ con le probabilità di rovina relative a una successione di caricamenti ( _k ) _k , che approssimano ₀ quandok tende all'infinito.

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Summary In this paper we study a way of approximating the probability of ruin related to a loading ₀, by the probabilities of ruin related of a sequence of loadings ( _k ) _k which «approximate» ₀ ask converges to infinity.

     

Una nuova caratterizzatione dell'ammissibilità nella teoria delle decisioni

In questo lavoro viene fornita una nuova caratterizzazione dell'ammissibilità attraverso un adeguato uso della nozione di ammissibilità parziale. Questa caratterizzazione consente di affrontare le questioni riguardanti la completezza della classe delle decisioni ammissibiliti sotto condizioni «maneggevoli». Fornisce inoltre un approccio unificante al problema della completezza che consente di derivare, come casi particolari, alcuni risultati già noti nella letteratura sull'argomento.

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In this paper a new characterization of admissibility is given for general decision problems. It is based on an adequate use of the notion of partial admissibility.A general decision problem is usually synthetized by a triplet (, , ) where is the states (or parameters) space, the set of available decisions and is a family of real valued functions defined on and expressing numerically the consequences of choosing when the state is . The set is regarded as a subset of the space of all real valued functions on endowed with the topology of pointwise convergence.As for as admissibility is concerned all the pertinent information about decisions are contained in the corresponding functionsW .This allows to introduce a notion of partial admissibility through the neigh-bourhoods of this topology. Admissibile decisions are then shown to be limits of monotone non increasing sequences of partially admissible decisions.Moreover this topological characterization allows to prove the completeness of classes of admissible decisions under acceptable systems of conditions which contain as special cases, known results in literature.

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Lavoro svolto nell'ambito del Gruppo Nazionale per l'Analisi Funzionale e le sue Applicazioni del C.N.R.     

Su alcune proprietà delle probabilità finitamente additive

Some types of finitely additive probabilities (conglomerative, disintegrable, balanced, weakly balanced) are examined, and their relationship with -additivity is studied.

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Si studiano le mutue relazioni fra alcune classi di probabilità finitamente additive che si incontrano in certe applicazioni statistiche, e cioè le probabilità conglomerative, disintegrabili, bilanciate, debolmente bilanciate, esaminandone anche i legami con la -additività.

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Versione definitiva pervenuta il 30-8-81     

An alternative direct proof of Gibbard’s random dictatorship theorem

We present an alternative proof of the Gibbards random dictatorship theorem with ex post Pareto optimality. Gibbard(1977) showed that when the number of alternatives is finite and larger than two, and individual preferences are linear (strict), a strategy-proof decision scheme (a probabilistic analogue of a social choice function or a voting rule) is a convex combination of decision schemes which are, in his terms, either unilateral or duple. As a corollary of this theorem (credited to H. Sonnenschein) he showed that a decision scheme which is strategy-proof and satisfies ex post Pareto optimality is randomly dictatorial. We call this corollary the Gibbards random dictatorship theorem. We present a proof of this theorem which is direct and follows closely the original Gibbards approach. Focusing attention to the case with ex post Pareto optimality our proof is more simple and intuitive than the original Gibbards proof.Received: 15 October 2001, Accepted: 23 May 2003, JEL Classification: D71, D72Yasuhito Tanaka: The author is grateful to an anonymous referee and the Associate editor of this journal for very helpful comments and suggestions. And this research has been supported by a grant from the Zengin Foundation for Studies on Economics and Finance in Japan.     

Multi-period rent-seeking contests with carryover: Theory and experimental evidence

This paper develops and experimentally tests a model in which a players effort affects the probability of winning a contest in both the current and future periods. Theory predicts that rent-seeking effort will be shifted forward from later to earlier periods, with no change in overall rent-seeking expenditures relative to the static contest. Experimental results indicate a significant shift forward when carryover is present and that the amount shifted is directly related to the carryover rate. Finally, although experimental expenditures are greater than the equilibrium predictions, overall rent-seeking effort in the carryover contests is lower than in similar static contests.Received: 15 September 2003, Accepted: 15 June 2004 JEL Classification: D72, C91 Correspondence to: JohnCadigan     

A more generalized planning model of Bangladesh: Some preliminary observations

Conclusion With a simple model which is more generalized than the one used in planning in Bangladesh, it has been demonstrated that government's overall budgetary programmes (revenue expenditure and credit policy) do not conform with sectoral output projections. This lack of conformity might have been responsible for the failure of planning in Bangladesh. For example, either macroeconomic policies (e.g., liberal credit policy) instead of raising output may have generated structural inflation or sectoral development and investment programmes may have fallen apart in the face of a rising price level. Since economic policies are directed at the macro level without due information about individual production sectors, certain government fiscal and monetary policy combinations may have increased demand for some output whose production could not be increased, at least in the short-run, because of structural bottlenecks. As a result, the Keynesian multiplier may have occurred only in nominal terms.On the other hand, planners may have set some investment target to free a given sector from structural bottlenecks, but fiscal and monetary policies were possibly not accommodating to generate required resources. Moreover, since the I-O model does not explain final demands on the basis of economic behaviour but rather treats them as exogenous, it short-circuits the income propagation mechanism. This possibly led to inconsistency between the forecasts of the Ministry of Planning and the Ministry of Finance regarding changes in gross domestic product (GDP) due to changes in exogenous variables.Therefore, for the successful harmonization of stabilization policies and development strategies, the analytical framework of both the Ministry of Finance and the Planning Commission need to be bridged. For this a more general social accounting framework, the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is needed. The SAM provides a complete and consistent picture of the circular flow (both real and monetary) in an economy. Therefore, the Planning Commission and the Bureau of Statistics should attempt to integrate information on financial flows and institutional income distribution with the information on real flows (I-O table) in the economy. This will provide a framework for a more generalized planning model within which impacts of monetary and fiscal policies can be traced to the individual sectors, so that there could be fruitful dialogue between the two Departments of the government.This paper is based on chapters 3 & 4 of the author's Ph.D. thesis, submitted to the University of Manitoba, 1983.This paper is based on chapters 3 & 4 of the author's Ph.D. thesis, submitted to the University of Manitoba, 1983.The author wishes to express his Sincere gratitude to Professor L.R.Klein for encouraging him to take up this project and for useful criticisms later as an external examiner. Thanks are also due to the advisory Committee, Professors C. Nicolaou, R. Lobdell, and P.S. Dhruvarajan. However, for any deficiency and error that remain, the author alone is responsible.     

Forecasting economies in transition: The case of Romania

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable true economy to be discovered. This paper extends the analysis of Hall (1993) by exploring the consequences of endemic structural change for forecasting and building structural econometric models. We propose a model formulation which makes the econometric model itself able to adjust its parameters in the light of economic change using the Kalman Filter.The paper then illustrates this approach by building a small model of Romania and investigating its forecasting properties.This work was presented at a meeting of the MEET II network funded by the ACE project, Econometric Inference into the Macroeconomic dynamics of East European Economies.