Food Competition in World Markets: Some Evidence from a Panel Data Analysis of Top Exporting Countries

This paper investigates the relevance of relative prices and world income as determinants of food exports for the top trading countries in the period 1992–2012 using a panel data framework. We find that price elasticities generally take lower values for processed goods, and the opposite holds for income elasticities. Processed goods are also characterised by an inverse relationship between price elasticities and average unit values. The analysis suggests that both emerging and advanced countries can be expected to increase their export specialisation in processed goods. Furthermore, developed economies can face fierce competition from emerging countries by enhancing the quality content of their processed good exports.     

产业集群市场竞争与路径选择--以山东寿光蔬菜产业集群为例

山东寿光蔬菜产业许多以中小企业集群的块状模式表现出巨大的经济活力,但是又存在着部分过度竞争,甚至是恶性价格竞争的问题,造成区内资源的配置不合理。本文通过对山东寿光蔬菜集群市场竞争状况的具体分析,从产业组织的角度研究其市场竞争的具体特征,提出相应的路径选择,促进以山东寿光蔬菜产业集群为代表的蔬菜产业集群的发展。     

Taxes and Subsidies in Vertically Related Markets

In the framework of a two–country, two–good partial equilibrium model where one of the commodities (the bulk commodity) is an intermediate input in the production of the second good (the processed good), we assume that the government wishes to transfer income to both bulk commodity and processed good producers. Our analysis is concerned with efficient redistribution. The instruments are subsidies or taxes, and there is an opportunity cost of public funds. We use the targeting principle to characterize the set of optimal subsidies or taxes applied on both the bulk commodity and the final good in this vertically related market structure. The theoretical analysis is illustrated using the example of cereals (the bulk commodity) and pork and poultry (the processed good) in the European Union.     

Pricing Efficiency in Hog Markets

Weekly hog prices for Edmonton, Toronto and an average of mid-west United States markets are analyzed for lead-lag structure or Granger Causal ity. These price series are analyzed over six time periods from January 1964 to December 1983, corresponding to changes in marketing structure by the Alberta Pork Producers Marketing Board. Both ARIMA filters and a restricted-unrestricted ordinary least squares test for Granger Causality are employed. Results indicate an increase in isolation of markets, possibly illustrating the effectiveness of the local marketing board in its efforts to relate prices to local supply and demand conditions.
Les prix hebdomadaires du pore à Edmonton, Toronto et d'une moyenne de marchés du mid-west ameYicain sont analysés pour evaluer les directions des mouvements de ces marchés les uns par rapport aux autres ou la causalité de Granger. Ces séries de prix de Janvier 1964 à décembre I983 sont divisées en six périodes qui correspondent aux changements structurels de la mise en marché effectués par la régie albertaine du pore. L'analyse utilise des filtres ARIMA et un simple modéle linéaire restreint ou non restreint pour faire l'épreuve de causalité de Granger. Les résultats indiquent une augmentation de I'isolation des marchés les uns les autres; il semble que la régie de mise en marché locale réussit à relier les prix aux conditions locales de l'offre et de la demande.     

Price Reporting in Experimental Markets

The spatial oligopoly model has been proposed as a method of explaining behavior in food markets, particularly in response to retail food price reporting systems. This paper presents an analysis of the effects of price reporting in experimental spatial duopoly markets with controlled buyer behavior. The experiments are designed to evaluate the impact of a changed information flow on the price decisions of oligopolistic sellers. The short-run theoretical predictions of the spatial model are largely consistent with experimental market results. Thus, the spatial oligopoly model is not rejected as an explanation of seller response to changed price information Rows.
Le modéle oligopolistique spatial a déjà été proposé pour expliquer le comportement des marches alimentaires, tel que déterminé en particulier par les systémes d'inforrnation sur les prix au detail des aliments. Nous présentons une analyse des effets du systéme d'information sur les prix dans des marches duopolistiques spatiaux expérmentaux dans lesquels le comportement des acheteurs est contrôle. Ces expériences sont conpes pour évaluer I'incidence d'un changement dans la transmission des informations sur les décisions des vendeurs oligopolistiques concernant les prix. Les prévisions théoriques a court terme du modele spatial sont largement en accord avec les rksultats experimentaux. Ainsi, le modéle oligopolistique spatial peut he retenu pour expliquer la réaction des vendeurs è des chan-gements sumenus dans la transmission des informations sur les prix.     

Asset Pricing in Created Markets

We investigate the applicability of the present-value asset pricing model to fishing quota markets by applying instrumental variable panel data estimation techniques to 15 years of market transactions from New Zealand's individual transferable quota (ITQ) market. In addition to the influence of current fishing rents, we explore the effect of market interest rates, risk, and expected changes in future rents on quota asset prices. The results indicate that quota asset prices are positively related to declines in interest rates, lower levels of risk, expected increases in future fish prices, and expected cost reductions from rationalization under the quota system.     

Relationship Marketing and Micro-Retailer Brand in Traditional Markets

Micro-retailers in the developing world face tough competition from the modern retail sector, and there is some question about their long-term viability. The key to a sustainable role in retailing as the economy modernizes is continuing loyalty among the expanding middle class. We use in-depth interviews among traditional micro-retailers and their customers in Bangkok to illustrate that 1 segment of middle-class customers does see substantial value in continuing to patronize traditional micro-retailers. The service interaction and buyer-seller relationships are vital to customer loyalty for these traditional micro-retailers. Based on this, it seems likely that at least some traditional micro-retailers will be able to survive and prosper as the food retail environment modernizes in Thailand.     

Measuring Integration and Efficiency in International Agricultural Markets

This paper critiques the methods used to investigate integration and efficiency in international markets. Integration is best reflected by flow-based indicators of tradability, while efficiency is related to price-based notions of market equilibrium. Data insufficiency poses a serious constraint because empirical tests that rely on just prices cannot separate tests of the market efficiency hypothesis from tests of the strong assumptions underpinning model specification. Finally, even if market efficiency holds, there may nonetheless be considerable social inefficiency remaining due to trade barriers and excessive costs of commerce.     

New Futures Markets in Agricultural Production Rights: Possibilities and Constraints for the British and Dutch Milk Quota Markets

Farms are increasingly being affected by policies that involve production rights. Because of fluctuations in the prices of these rights in the spot market, farmers face a price risk. Establishing a futures market might enable them to hedge against this price risk. Rights futures have some features that differ from those of traditional commodity futures. This makes them an effective and efficient tool for managing price risk. The implications of these findings will be illustrated for milk quotas in the United Kingdom and The Netherlands. Prior conditions which might make a futures market for milk quotas successful in both countries will be deduced.     

Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets

A vector autoregression model is used to evaluate dynamic relationships among international wheat prices. The effects of freight rates and exchange rates are also considered. Forecast error variance decompositions and impulse response functions are used to investigate price dynamics in six important international wheat markets. The results suggest significant dynamic relationships among prices in different international wheat markets and between the prices and exchange rates and transportation costs.
On s'est servi d'un modéle vectoriel à autorégression pour évaluer les relations dynamiques entre les cours du blé sur le marché international. On a également tenu compte de l'inci-dence des coûts de transport et du taux de change. La décomposition prévue de la variance de l'erreur et les fonctions de réaction ponctuelle ont également permis d'approfondir la dynamique des prix sur six grands marchés internationaux du blé. Les résultats suggérent des relations dynamiques notables entre les prix sur différents marchés internationaux du blé, de meme qu'entre les prix et le taux du change et les coûts de transport.     

Food Safety and Adverse Selection in Rural Maize Markets

Without enforced standards or reliable third-party verification, food safety threats such as pesticide residues and aflatoxin contamination are generally unobservable or only partially observable to both buyers and sellers, especially of staple foods in rural maize markets in sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, sellers have more information about food quality than do buyers. Such information asymmetries can impede market development and undermine human health. We study farm household behaviour in the context of imperfect food safety information. We pool observations obtained from 707 food storage containers maintained by 309 farm households in Benin, surveyed following the maize harvests of 2011/2012 and 2013/2014. Our results indicate that when a household perceives a food safety risk associated with application of insecticides, on average it is 33 percentage points less likely to apply insecticides to maize it intends to consume than it is to maize it intends to sell. These individuals are also more likely to sell maize than households without food safety concerns. Results highlight the potential value of improved storage technologies and quality control to promote market transactions and reduce hidden health risks.     

Interlocked Village Markets and Trader Idiosyncrasy in Rural India

The role of traders and traditional exchange institutions has received little attention in empirical research on rural markets in developing countries. We use detailed data on transactions in a village commodity market in India and identify two observed anomalies: first, the repeal of the law of one price, and second, a trader‐idiosyncratic effect, namely that large volumes are sold to a trader who does not offer the best price. Econometric analysis demonstrates that trader idiosyncrasy can largely be explained by reciprocity motives in interlocked village markets. Reciprocity leads to market inefficiencies and can result in unexpected supply responses.     

Interest Rates,Target Markets and Sustainability in Microfinance

This paper presents evidence on the reliability of claims in the literature on microfinance institutions (MFIs) regarding the role of interest rates and institutional design in helping MFIs to realize financial self-sufficiency. It pools data from 426 institutions in 41 developing countries from 2004 to 2008. Contrary to expectations, the results of an ordered-logistic regression strongly support an inverted U-shaped function for the relationship between interest rates and sustainability, irrespective of customer orientation. Additionally, a shift away from the poorest borrowers in the low-end market does not significantly improve the likelihood of being more profitable after controlling for other relevant covariates. MFIs may not, therefore, be forced to drift away from their original goal of serving the underprivileged in pursuit of financial viability.     

Multilateral Trade and Agricultural Policy Reforms in Sugar Markets

We analyse the impact of trade liberalisation, removal of production subsidies and elimination of consumption distortions in world sugar markets using a partial‐equilibrium international sugar model calibrated on 2002 market data and current policies. The removal of trade distortions alone induces a 27% price increase while the removal of all trade and production distortions induces a 48% increase in 2011/2012 relative to the baseline. Aggregate trade expands moderately, but location of production and trade patterns change substantially. Protectionist Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries (the EU, Japan, the US) experience an import expansion or export reduction and a significant contraction of production in unfettered markets. Competitive producers in both OECD countries (Australia) and non‐OECD countries (Brazil, Cuba), and even some protected producers (Indonesia, Turkey), expand production when all distortions are removed. Consumption distortions have marginal impacts on world markets and the location of production. We discuss the significance of these results in the context of mounting pressures to increase market access in highly protected OECD countries and the impact on non‐OECD countries.     

Alternative Trade Mechanisms in World Dairy Markets

Dairy remains among the most protected agricultural sectors within OECD countries. Trade implications of this protection are import barriers and policies to induce greater exports, all of which distort markets. The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) set limits on subsidized exports and tariff rates for dairy products in order to liberalize trade. Yet few of the nations engaged in dairy market support have quit their efforts since the agreement. Continued implementation of the URAA with its accompanying limits, or possibly expanded liberalization after future trade talks, may result in greater stress on domestic price support mechanisms. We investigate implications of the URAA limitations on world dairy markets and some alternative methods of dairy product trade intervention by examining cases of existing and potential trade distortion. La filière du lait demeure le secteur agricole le plus protégé au sein des pays de l'OCDE. Sur le plan des échanges internationaux, cette protection se traduit par des barriéres à l'importation et par des politiques d'exportation agressives, autant de causes de distorsion du commerce mondial. Dans l'esprit de libéraliser les échanges commerciaux, l'Accord sur l'agriculture de l'Uruguay Round (AAUR) a fixé des limites aux exportations subventionnées et aux taux tarifaires imposés à l'importation des produits laitiers. Pourtant, quelques-unes seulement des nations appliquant des mesures de soutien du marché laitier ont jusqu'ici relâché leurs efforts. La poursuite de la mise en application de l'AAUR et des limites qu'il impose, ou une libéralisation éventuelle plus grande survenant après les prochaines discussions commerciales, peut créer une pression accrue sur les mécanismes de soutien des marchés intérieurs. Nous analysons la portée des restrictions de l'AAUR sur les marchés laitiers mondiaux ainsi que quelques méthodes d'intervention sur le marché des produits laitiers, par l'examen de certains cas de distorsion actuels, et éventuels du commerce extérieur.     

Dynamic Interrelationships in Hard Wheat Basis Markets

Basis values for hard red spring (HRS) wheat have escalated radically, experienced extraordinary levels of volatility (risk), were subject to a squeeze during 2008, and all these have important implications for market participants. These are particularly important to marketers in the Northern Great Plains in the United States, as well as for Canadian marketers as they confront deregulation in wheat marketing and will be exposed to these risks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamic relationships and interdependencies among terminal market basis values for milling. Specifically, we seek to identify factors impacting basis values for 13%, 14%, and 15% protein HRS wheat in addition to the intermarket wheat spread between Minneapolis and Kansas City wheat futures. We specify a vector autoregression (VAR) model to explore these relationships. Exogenous structural variables are specified in addition to dynamic interrelationships including seasonal and intertemporal variability and dynamic interdependencies among these markets and relationships. Results of interest are that: (1) basis values for these markets have been trending up and have become more volatile; (2) factors impacting this variability are the protein level in HRS, production of hard red winter (HRW), and Canadian wheat (on high protein basis); (3) HRW protein supplies are not significant in the basis equations, but, do impact the intermarket wheat futures spread; (4) quality factors have a significant impact on basis values, notably vomitoxin, falling numbers, and absorption. Dynamic interrelations are also important in that all prices converge quickly toward a long‐term equilibrium. In addition, there are seasonal impacts, dynamic basis interactions, trends, and lagged impacts of protein levels.