国际生产分割的生产率效应

国际生产分割对参与国的生产率产生了重要影响。本文使用符合中国特点的生产分割指标考察了中国参与国际生产分割对于工业行业生产率的影响。研究结果表明:中国参与生产分割有利于生产率的提高;非加工贸易形式的生产分割对生产率的提升作用要高于加工贸易形式的生产分割;生产分割提高生产率的效果对不同行业是不同的,中低技术行业最为明显,其次是高技术行业,最低为初级产品、劳动和资源密集部门;从发达国家承接的生产分割对生产率的提升作用要大于从非发达国家承接的生产分割。     

国际贸易、自主研发与高技术产业生产率增长

本文采用DEA方法测算了我国省际高技术产业的生产率及其分解的技术效率和技术进步,并运用动态面板GMM方法对国际贸易、自主研发与高技术产业生产率增长的关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:1998-2009年间,高技术产业技术效率出现了下降趋势,但其生产率增长和技术进步显著。高技术产业快速发展的国际贸易并没有促进其生产率增长,生产率增长和技术进步主要来源于持续的自主研发,而立足于自主研发途径的技术吸收也促进了生产率增长和技术进步。因此,在研发设计新产品过程中,高技术产业应具备生产中间产品的能力,减少对中间产品进口的依赖。促进高技术产业生产率增长主要取决于研发投入,但在加大研发投入的同时,应注重通过管理和制度创新提升技术效率。     

国际贸易、R&D溢出和生产率增长

本文采用6种计算外国R&D资本的方法和国际R&D溢出回归方法,首次就国际R&D溢出对中国工业行业的技术进步增长、技术效率增长和全要素生产率增长的影响作了实证分析。我们从这6种方法的比较中发现:当采用有缺陷的两种方法时,得到国际R&D溢出系数显著为负或者溢出系数为正,但不显著的结论;而采用其他的四种方法,能得到国际R&D溢出系数显著为正的结论。因此,从计算方法本身及其结论的比较来看,通过国际贸易渠道的R&D溢出促进了中国工业行业的技术进步、技术效率及全要素生产率增长的结论更可靠。同时发现在大部分情况下国内本行业R&D与其他行业R&D对行业技术进步、技术效率和全要素生产率的增长起阻碍作用。因此,加强与R&D投入比重较高的发达国家的国际贸易以及提高国内自身的R&D效率显得很有必要。     

Monetary policy shocks and productivity measures in the G-7 countries

An implication of two-country international real business cycle models is that total factor productivity should be an exogenous stochastic process. Economic theories which feature labor hoarding, variable capacity utilization, and increasing returns predict that measured productivity shifts are not exogenous; instead, expansionary aggregate demand shocks should lead to an increase in measured productivity. For each of the G-7 countries, this paper measures quarterly aggregate total factor productivity for the domestic country and its rest-of-world (G-6) counterpart. In each case the domestic productivity measures are not strictly exogenous: expansionary U.S. monetary policy shocks, as well as other G-6 monetary policy shocks, lead to productivity expansions. The evidence indicates that international business cycle models are misspecified unless they feature endogenous productivity mechanisms.Received: June 2001, Accepted: December 2001, JEL Classification: E5, F4Correspondence to: Charles L. EvansFor their helpful comments, we thank Mario Crucini, Patricia Reynolds, and Steve Strongin. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.     

国际R&D溢出与生产率增长——基于APEC视角的动态面板数据分析

本文从服务贸易进口、FDI流入和生产率积聚效应等方面扩展了CH模型,并以APEC成员作为研究对象,运用动态面板数据模型和脉冲响应函教研究了全要素生产率、技术效率和技术进步的动态变化规律,得出了全要素生产率、技术效率和技术进步存在显著的积聚效应;本国R&D资本存量有助于提升技术效率,但是能否促进技术进步刖依赖于R&D投入强度;和通过服务贸易渠道获得的国际R&D溢出对全要素生产率和技术进步均有显著的促进作用等三个一般性结论.     

International business cycle spillovers since the 1870s

This article considers the evolution of international business cycle interdependencies among 27 developed and developing countries since the beginning of 1870s, utilizing the generalized vector autoregressive (VAR)-based spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), which allows the construction of a time-varying measure of business cycle spillovers. We find that, on average, 65% of the forecast error variance of the 27 countries’ business cycle shocks is due to international spillovers. However, the magnitude of international business cycle spillovers varies considerably over time. There is a clear increasing trend since the end of World War II and until the mid-1980s. After that, international business cycle interdependencies declined during the period that was dubbed the Great Moderation and stabilized around the beginning of the twenty-first century. During the Great Recession of 2008–2009, international business cycle spillovers increased to unprecedented levels. Finally, developed countries are consistently ranked as net transmitters of cyclical shocks to developing counties throughout the sample.     

Growth and welfare effects of business cycles in economies with idiosyncratic human capital risk

This paper uses a tractable macroeconomic model with idiosyncratic human capital risk and incomplete markets to analyze the growth and welfare effects of business cycles. The analysis is based on the assumption that the elimination of business cycles eliminates the variation in idiosyncratic risk. The paper shows that a reduction in the variation in idiosyncratic risk decreases the ratio of physical to human capital and increases the total investment return and welfare. If the degree of risk aversion is less than or equal to one, then economic growth is enhanced. This paper also provides a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of business cycles based on a calibrated version of the model. Even for relatively small degrees of risk aversion (around one) the model implies that the elimination of business cycles has substantial effects on investment in physical and human capital, economic growth, and welfare.     

经济制度安排、国际贸易与经济增长影响机理的经验研究

本文分析了经济制度安排和贸易流量之间的相互关系及其对该国经济增长以及影响经济增长的其他因素的影响。在九个经济制度安排变量中对一国贸易流量影响作用最大的经济制度安排变量是该国的贸易政策,对一国高技术产品出口影响最大的经济制度安排变量是该国的产权保护程度。从对影响经济增长的渠道分析发现,在所有的经济制度安排变量中,一国产权的保护程度对该国经济增长的影响作用最大;同时产权保护的程度和政府干预对技术进步和人力资本的影响最为显著。     

Entrepreneurship,entry and performance of new business compared in two growth regimes: East and West Germany

The paper provides an outline of the concept of regional growth regimes and empirically illustrates the relevance of the concept. The empirical examples are entrepreneurship, entry and the performance of new businesses in East and West Germany. The differences of the factors determining the formation of new businesses as well as their development between these two growth regimes are immense and clearly demonstrate the relevance of region specific factors.JEL Classification: O11, O18, P25, R11Michael Fritsch: I amindebted to two anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier version and to Pamela Mueller and Antje Weyh for energetic support in preparing the data. Correspondence to Technical University of Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Lessingstraße 45, 09596 Freiberg, Germany     

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth*

Zvi Griliches's contributions to the economics of technology and growth are identified. Included is a discussion of his contributions on: the determinants of differences in speed of adoption of innovations; the use of patents to measure technology; the private and social returns to R&D; and spillover effects from R&D. Griliches's own evaluation of his research contribution is compared to the evaluation of others in the field, using as evidence citation counts of his works collected from the online Web of Science. Griliches's most important contribution is his 1957 Econometrica hybrid corn paper that is a foundation of the economics of technological innovation. Remarkably, the trend in annual citations to the paper has continued to increase for over 40 years. Finally, we summarize Griliches's most recent views on the practice of economics and on the most important unanswered questions in the economics of technology and growth.     

International migration,economic policy and human capital accumulation: a simulation study

"This paper examines the economic policy implications of international migration and human capital accumulation within a dynamic general equilibrium model. Each country produces by means of physical and human capital of two types (skilled and unskilled labour). Along optimal growth paths in a world of diverging population growth rates immigration can only be beneficial when the free rider effect (i.e., not paying for training costs) exceeds the capital dilution effect of an increase in population growth. Under quite general conditions the optimal immigration rate is zero."     

知识经济时代国际贸易的发展趋势及对策

知识经济是建立在知识和信息的生产、分配和使用基础之上的经济形态。在知识、技术和全球化力量的推动下，全球国际贸易出现了新的发展趋势和特点。为迎接知识经济的挑战，我国必须调整对外贸易战略，加大科技创新，大力发展知识型服务贸易，推行网络贸易及实施“走出去”战略。     

Classical and modern business cycle measurement: The European case

This paper intends to harmonize two different approaches employed in the analysis of business cycles and, in doing so, it retrieves the stylized facts of the business cycle in Europe. We start with the classical approach proposed in Burns and Mitchell (1946) of dating and analyzing the business cycle. The stylized facts retrieved are commented and compared to those obtained by Harding and Pagan (2002) for the U.S.. Two conclusions can be extracted from the results: a) though the turning points obtained for individual countries seem to cluster and would suggest the idea of a common cycle, there are relevant differences in the stylized facts characterizing the business cycle in the individual European economies under analysis; b) moreover, we find relevant differences in the business cycle stylized facts of the European countries and the U.S., mostly in terms of the duration, the amplitude of the cycle and the shape of the recovery. We then adopt the modern alternative: the Markov-switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR). The models regime probabilities provide an optimal statistical inference of the turning point of the European business cycle. For assessing the capacity of the parametric approach to generate the stylized facts of the classical cycle in Europe, the stylized facts of the original data are compared to those of simulated data. Contrary to the results reported by Harding and Pagan (2002) , we show that the MS-VAR model is a good candidate to be used as an statistical instrument to improve the understanding of the business cycle.JEL Classification: E32, F43, F47, C32We are grateful to Mike Artis, Mike Clements and Adrian Pagan for useful comments and discussions. Financial support from the UK Economic and Social Research Council under grant L116251015 is gratefully acknowledged by the first author. The research of the second author was supported through a European Community Marie Curie Fellowship, contract HPMF-CT-2000-00761. Corresponding author: Juan Toro     

基于购买力平价的中国商业银行生产效率的国际比较

本文首次以购买力平价作为贷币换算系数,利用数据包络分析方法对我国商业银行与欧美发达国家的商业银行的生产效率进行了比较研究,精确计量了我国商业银行与发达国家商业银行的效率差距.研究结果证明:现阶段我国商业银行的生产效率平均只有欧美发达国家的最好的商业银行的四分之一,差距很大,存在着比较严重的投入过剩.     

基于面板数据的制造业国际R&D溢出及生产率增长途径分析

为了检验产业自身科技水平对制造业国际R&D溢出效应及产业生产率提高途径的影响,根据1999—2004年产业R&D平均投入强度,将制造业划分为高、中、低技术产业,然后基于DEA对其全要素生产率变化、技术效率变化和技术进步变化指数进行测算,最后实证检验了国内本产业、国内其它产业、国外本产业R&D资本对上述3类产业全要素生产率变化、技术效率变化和技术进步变化的不同影响。结果表明:国外R&D资本对高技术企业存在显著的正向技术溢出效应,而对于中、低技术产业来说,本产业R&D资本是生产率提高的主要来源。根据上述分析结果,对我国的产业研发投入、国际贸易政策的制定提出了建议。     

基于网络的国际新创企业知识转移影响因素分析

通过网络进行知识转移是国际新创企业进行知识积累的重要形式。从理论上分析了网络渠道、网络关系、网络距离和网络位势4个因素对知识转移的影响,阐述了各因素对知识转移的影响,提出了4个有待检验的命题。     

International diffusion of embodied and disembodied technology: A network analysis approach

This study proposes a quantitative method for investigating the structure of international technology diffusion. By using network analysis, this study defines the structural configuration of each country within the international diffusion network by measuring its degree, closeness, and betweenness centralities. In addition, this study distinguishes between embodied technology diffusion, measured by multilateral trade, and disembodied technology diffusion, measured by patent citations, in individual countries. This study empirically tests a sample data set of international technology diffusion taken from 48 countries. The empirical results show that the structural configuration of countries exhibits similar patterns in both embodied and disembodied diffusion networks. Significant global stratification patterns exist in the capability of national international technology exportation and brokerage advantages. Moreover, this study distinguishes four blocks of countries that play different roles in international technology diffusion: the leading countries provide a source of technological knowledge; an intermediate group diffuses the knowledge acquired from the source; a third group is in the process of initiating the export of technological knowledge; and a final group of countries absorbs technological knowledge without reciprocal exportation. Finally, this study identifies two types of catch-up strategies that newly industrialized or developing countries can use to move up the international technology stratification.     

Decomposing productivity growth and divergence: an index number approach

We propose a cross-country productivity growth decomposition that allows us to quantify the industry-level contributors to an aggregate productivity growth differential. We deploy this cross-country decomposition to quantify—for the first time—the disaggregate contributors to the divergence in market sector productivity growth between Australia and New Zealand. The results suggest that large contributions to the divergence arise from differences in labour growth across the two countries and that cross-country structural differences are large, and generally act to reduce the divergence. Most of the industries are found to add to the divergence, with particularly large contributions coming from differences across the mining and wholesale trade industries. The views expressed in the paper are entirely my own, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. I would like to thank Les Oxley and Kevin Fox for useful comments on earlier drafts. All errors and omissions are my own.     

Capacity constraints, asymmetries, and the business cycle

We study how an occasionally binding capacity constraint affects the properties of business cycles. A real business cycle model is constructed where production takes place at individual plants and the number of plants operated varies over the cycle. The capacity constraint binds in states where all plants are operated. We derive the aggregate production function for this economy, which turns out to differ from the standard Cobb–Douglas function while retaining its desirable properties. The business cycle features of this one-sector growth model are similar to those of a standard real business cycle model in most respects. Our model does, however, display some properties of actual economies that standard models do not. In particular, business cycles in our model are asymmetric—troughs are deeper on average than peaks are tall. Also, labor's share of income is counter-cyclical, as it is in US data.     

跨国合资企业形成知识合作剩余的创造动因分析

跨国合资企业的形成有其必然性与合理性。从合作剩余的概念着手,分析了跨国合资企业知识合作剩余产生的源泉,解释了跨国合资企业形成的知识合作剩余创造机理,为我国企业跨国经营与应对外资进入提供了管理思路。