The Grameen Bank as Progressive Institutional Adjustment

Over the past 25 years, a variety of Neoliberal reforms were introduced. Instead of growth, stability, and the narrowing of income gaps, however, we have seen stagnation, volatility, and increased inequality. The paper examines the theory that justified these policies, describes an alternative approach, and takes a brief look at a small group of Latin American countries in the aftermath of the Mexican Crisis. It is shown that not only does the alternative view raise serious doubts about the efficacy of Neoliberalism, but that those countries that refused to follow suit were better protected against contagion after the December Mistake.     

我国现行创新激励税收政策的问题分析及政策建议

创新激励税收政策对于一国自主创新和经济发展具有重要意义。首先对国内外创新激励税收政策进行比较分析;其次分祈研究了我国现行创新激励税收政策尚存在的问题和不足;最后借鉴创新性国家的经验并结合我国国情提出了相关政策建议。     

Explaining International Differences in Genetically Modified Food Labeling Policies*

Many countries have adopted labeling policies for genetically modified (GM) food, and the regulations vary considerably across countries. We evaluate the importance of political‐economic factors implicit in the choice of GM food labeling regulations. Using an analytical model, we show that production and trade‐related interests play a prominent role in labeling decision‐making. This conclusion is validated by an empirical analysis of GM food labeling policy choices. We find that countries producing GM crops are more likely to have less stringent labeling policies. Food and feed exporters to the European Union (EU) and Japan are more likely to have adopted stricter labeling policies. Labeling regulations in Asia and Europe are similar to those of Japan and the EU. Countries with no labeling policies are less developed, with important rural sectors and are more likely to have ratified the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety.     

Forecasting the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in southern Europe : A learning curve approach

Most analysts disagree upon whether photovoltaic systems (PV) will be able to play an important role in the energy scenarios of the future. A few scholars also question the appropriateness of policies that envisage the use of public subsidies to stimulate the growth of this industry and to accelerate market penetration. This paper contributes to this debate by examining whether carefully designed policies may initiate a process of large-scale diffusion of grid-connected PV, even without the deployment of external subsidies. Building upon a disaggregated characterization of the electricity market, it takes endogenously into account the learning curve phenomenon and simulates the diffusion of PV building-integrated systems in five European countries. The analysis is restricted to crystalline silicon systems and is repeated under four different macroeconomic scenarios corresponding to four different energy policies. The results suggest that already today there are opportunities for PV diffusion in many islands of the Mediterranean region, which may trigger sufficient scale economies to render the technology competitive in larger markets. They also show that the diffusion process could be accelerated through the implementation of carbon-tax policies that support initial penetration. The environmental benefits (net avoided CO₂ emissions over the system life cycle) associated with the forecasted penetration are also evaluated.     

Producing state of the future indexes using the international futures model

This paper reports on the introduction of the State of the Future Index (SOFI) into the University of Denver's International Futures (IFs) modeling system, a synthesis that will permit the calculation and comparison of the SOFI for all nations covered in the model. The SOFI is an index designed to show whether the future outlook is improving or not; it is also useful in policy analysis since it can be used to demonstrate whether contemplated policies appear to change the future, overall, for the better. It is one of the few indexes that are forecasted.The capability to calculate SOFI has been added to the IFs model; this addition now permits the model to calculate SOFI for all of the countries in the model. With this capability national SOFIs can be computed by anyone and for any country, set of countries, region, or globally. The model, its database, and now the SOFI calculation are available online at no cost to the users. This opens the opportunity to produce an annual or biennial publication that tracks and ranks the State of the Future Index for countries, regions, and the world as a whole.     

The Role of Keynesian Policies in Semi-industrialized Countries: theory and evidence from India

This paper examines the relevance of Keynesian policies—interpreted as those policies implied by Keynes's theoretical analysis of unemployment developed in The General Theory—for a subset of developing economies, which are called semi-industrialized countries. It draws on recent contributions in development economics to argue on theoretical grounds that Keynesian policies are relevant for semi-industrialized countries even when they are constrained by capital shortages, stagnant agricultural sectors, and foreign exchange availability. It then discusses the recent development experience of India to illustrate the empirical relevance of some of these theoretical issues.     

Global Expansion of Renewable Energy Generation: An Analysis of Policy Instruments

This study analyzes the degree to which renewable energy policies, in particular feed-in tariffs and renewable portfolio standards, facilitate renewable energy generation growth across a wide range of countries using an original cross-national dataset of 164 countries between 1990 and 2010. Results provide evidence that both policies are important predictors of renewable energy market growth. The dependent variable is operationalized first as the percentage of total electricity from renewable energy and second as the annual increase in total renewable energy generation in a country. Results are robust to several alternative model specifications including those that exclude hydroelectric generation in the construct of renewable energy. The degree to which feed-in tariffs are endogenous, however, is not conclusive. Besides the prominent role of these policies, results reveal that factors related to annual increases in renewable energy differ from those related to an overall transition toward greater reliance on renewable energy. This suggests that simply increasing renewable generation does not necessarily decrease reliance on fossil fuels or help countries make the shift to a clean energy economy.     

Technology Strategies For Economic Development In A Fast Changing Global Economy

East Asian development experience provides the basis for understanding which are the essential elements of effective technology strategy and policy, those that are required for the efficacious development of countries that have not yet embarked on a path of sustained modernization. Globalization has had a profound impact on development, enabling countries that could exploit its propelling forces to pursue a potent strategy of export-led economic and technological development. The policies needed to sustain this strategy are those required to foster institutions that permit effective commerce among economic agents, those necessary to generate the rapid accumulation of human and physical capital, and those essential to ensure that resources are allocated in accord with the economy's dynamic comparative advantage. Of crucial importance among the latter are effectively implemented policies of selective intervention designed to develop infant industries and to foster their fast-paced achievement of international competitiveness through rapid attainment of the requisite technological capabilities.     

Time Series Analysis of Inflation Targeting in Selected Countries

Abstract

We analyze a set of countries which adopted inflation targeting (IT) as a policy tool. We model the pre‐IT period with ARMA and GARCH methods, and conduct the one‐step ahead forecasting for the remainder of the times series data. The actual and forecasted inflation levels are compared for each country. We find that even though the actual inflation levels are lower than the forecasted ones, there is no statistical evidence to suggest that the adoption of IT causes a structural break in the inflation levels of the countries which adopt IT.     

Capitalism and democracy in the 21st Century: from the managed to the entrepreneurial economy*

 This paper explains how and why the developed countries are undergoing a fundamental shift away from a managed economy and towards an entrepreneurial economy. This shift is shaping the development of western capitalism and has triggered a shift in government policies away from constraining the freedom of business to contract through regulation, public ownership and antitrust towards a new set of enabling policies which foster the creation and commercialization of new knowledge. The empirical evidence from a cross-section of countries over time suggests that those countries that have experienced a greater shift from the managed to the entrepreneurial economy have had lower levels of unemployment.     

The determinants and impact of telecommunications reforms in developing countries

This paper has two related objectives. First, it seeks to identify the key determinants of some policies that have been at the heart of the reforms of the telecommunications industry in developing countries, namely, liberalization, privatization, and the (re)structuring of regulation. Second, it attempts to estimate the extent to which these policies have translated into actual deployment of telecommunications infrastructure. This simultaneous investigation is conducted by means of an econometric analysis of a 1985-1999 time-series-cross-sectional database on 86 developing countries. Sectoral as well as institutional and financial factors are found to be important determinants of the actual reforms implemented. We uncover a positive relationship between the decision to introduce competition in the digital cellular segment and the growth of the fixed-line segment, suggesting that these two segments have benefited from each other. We also find that countries facing increasing institutional risk and financial constraints are more likely to introduce competition in the digital cellular segment and to privatize the fixed-line incumbent, these policies being economically attractive to both investors and governments. In turn, these policies are those that enhance the deployment of fixed-line infrastructure. In contrast, competition in the analogue cellular segment and the creation of a separate regulator seem to be relatively less attractive policies as they are found to be less likely to be introduced in countries facing increasing institutional risk and budget constraints. Their impact on fixed network deployment is found to be negative or non significant.     

The impact of West European trade strategies on exports to Eastern Europe

This paper examines the extent to which West European countries have utilized diplomacy and reductions in trade barriers to improve their export performance in East European markets during the 1960's. Equal-price export shares of 7 West European countries are estimated by means of an econometric model, and their behavior over time and among importing regions is related to the commercial and foreign policies of the exporters. Our results demonstrate that East European import decisions have been significantly influenced both by changes in western commercial policies and by diplomatic initiatives such as DeGaulle's effort at détente with the Soviet Union. Our results also indicate that elasticities of substitution in East-West trade are significantly lower than those in trade among western countries.     

Exchange rate policy during transition to the European Monetary Union: The option of euroization

Countries of central eastern Europe which are candidates for accession to the European Union face fundamental challenges in the conduct of macroeconomic policies. These countries are characterized by growth rates faster than those of EU countries, along with large current account deficits and an equilibrium appreciation of the real exchange rate. In such a context, an early adoption of the euro may be beneficial to central eastern European countries, while the ERM‐II system and the Maastricht criterion on inflation may give rise to serious drawbacks for candidate countries. JEL classification: F15, F41     

宏观调控政策的国际互动及效应

通过运用格兰杰二元因果关系检验和协整检验等方法对多国的货币市场利率、货币供给量、政府净债务和政府支出等指标的增长率变动进行分析,可以证实国际间的货币政策和财政政策调控存在显著的互动关系,并且通过分析这些指标与各国经济总量GDP的互动关系,可以证实存在着国际间宏观经济互动调控的经济福利效应,它通过一些宏观经济调控政策的国际互动机制得以实现。     

Family planning in developing nations: a global concern,our concern

Rapid population growth is a serious problem in many developing countries and family planning policies developed in response to the problem raise many ethical issues; home economists can help the citizens in their respective countries increase their knowledge of population dynamics and help them assess the ethical implications of population and family planning policies. Most developing countries have high population growth rates. The annual population growth rates for 1975-79 were 2.8% for Africa, 2.6% for Latin America, and 2.1% for Asia. Population grows exponentially: a population growing at an annual rate of 3% increases. 1900% in a century. If current population trends continue the world's population will stablize toward the end of the 21st century at about 10 billion persons, compared to the world's present population of 4.3 billion. Rapid population growth not only threatens the future welfare of society as a whole, but currently impedes the economic development of the world's poorest nations. Consequently, the governments in many developing countries have adopted vigorous family planning programs. It is difficult to reduce population growth in developing countries because these countries have a high proportion of young people in their populations, i.e., a high number of persons of reproductive age. Barriers to family planning acceptance include 1) high illiteracy rates 2) high infant mortality rates 3) the high economic and socialvalue placed on children in developing countries and 4)religious beliefs. Methods used by governments to alter population growth include 1) manipulating access to contraceptives, 2)developing programs to alter social determinants of fertility, 3) using propaganda to encourage or discourage birth control and repressing information contrary to the government's policies, 4) offering incentives to those who further government policies and imposing disincentives on those who do not comply with government policies, and 5) exerting political pressure to force individual to comply with the govermnent's policies. The use of some of these methods raises ethical issues. When does pressure become coercion? Is coecion justified by the need to ensure the future welfare of the world? In India, sterilization was promoted by making payments to sterilization acceptors and promoters and to physicians who performed sterilizations. In Taiwan, savings deposits were made for children of couples with 1 or 2 children, and the deposits were decreased in additional childred were born. In China incentives, disincentives, and polititcal and peer pressure are used to promote the governt's family planning policies. Do these strong measures lead to infaticide and to the abuse of children whose births result in economic loss for other family members? Do they violate human rights? These issues should be discussed in home economics classes, and additional efforts must be made to ensure that male students are also provided with population information. Home economists can promote the critical assessment of the population problem and its solutions.     

Trade Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Convergence

This paper examines the hypothesis that countries which pursue export-promoting (EP) policies are much more likely to converge than countries which pursue import-substituting (IS) policies. The hypothesis is tested statistically in the context of a sample of developing countries which have in the recent past pursued inward-looking or outward-looking or export-promotion (EP) policies. The empirical eviddence supports the hypothesis EP countries converge at approximately 1.9% per annum, while IS countries converge at approximately 0.9% per annum.     

自生能力、经济转型与新古典经济学的反思

现有的新古典经济学理论体系把企业具有自生能力作为暗含的前提。但是 ,转型中国家和其他许多发展中国家的企业却因政府的赶超愿望 ,进入不具比较优势的产业而不具自生能力。当经济中大量企业缺乏自生能力时 ,实行根据新古典经济学所制定的改革或转型政策 ,往往达不到预期效果 ,而且 ,可能给社会带来巨大痛苦。本文主张 ,在分析社会主义经济、转型经济和发展经济问题时 ,放弃现有的新古典经济学体系中企业具有自生能力的暗含前提 ,把企业是否具有自生能力作为一个具体的考虑变量 ,这是新古典经济学理论的必要发展。     

A note on trade liberalization and common pool resources

Abstract.  When countries share access to a common resource stock, optimal management is based on strategic considerations. We develop a general equilibrium model and show that regulatory policies are strategic substitutes under autarky. Trade liberalization not only changes relative prices, but may change the qualitative nature of the game between jurisdictions. In the small country case with exogenous prices, regulatory policies become strategic complements. In the context of a two‐country model, policies remain strategic substitutes but the factors that drive policy changes differ from those under autarky and the small country case. The implications for conservation and resource management are discussed.     

How Do Factor Specificity and Emigration Make Income Inequality Worse in Developing Countries?

Journal of Quantitative Economics - Immigration policies in most developed countries are increasingly tilted toward skilled labor. Whether such policies hurt the sending countries is somewhat...     

Clusters,industrial policy and firm strategy

Increasingly, govemments and firms take clusters of related business as a starting point to formulate policies and strategies, which aim at enhancing innovation. There appear, however, to be quite some different conceptions of what clusters are, In the first part of this paper and attempt is made to clarify the cluster concept by defining the relevant dimensions of clusters. In the second part, each of these dimensions is related to possible industrial policies and firm strategies. Practical illustrations will be given from different European countries and firms. The dimensions and related policies and strategies form a menu of possibilities from which actors can choose those elements that are most relevant for their specific situation. Thus, tailor-made policies and strategies can be devised and implemented.