Structural problems of the next few years

The Federal Republic of Germany will be facing in the next few years changes in its economic structure which, if not in their extent, in their effect on the employment situation will be without parallel in the post-war period. After fifteen years of nearly uninterrupted full employment, it is reasonable to expect in the medium term an over-all rate of unemployment of the order of 2–3 p.c. (0.5–0.7 mn).     

解密前30年,预判后30年

今年是改革开放30周年,年初以来各方对此的反思、探讨未曾断绝,讲清楚前30年的成功,预测后30年的轨迹已成为国内外热议的重头戏,也是能够吸引眼球的"好招牌"。目前一个值得注意的现象是国外解读的力度在加大、角度在增加,而且形成西方解读与非西方解读两大派别,前者以误读与曲解为主流,把中国模式概括     

商场失意者的几种通病

<正> 从商之人都很清楚自己的长处,也懂得利用长处去获得成功。但要找出自己的短处并及时加以改正,却很少有人能做到。其实,只要把自己的缺点找出来,并努力克服它,就能使自己迅速地从失败的阴影里走出来,继续走向成功。那些商界失败者之所以会"败走麦城",除了受客观环境因素的影响外,主要的还是他     

未来五年我国船舶出口融资需求

一、船舶融资的特点 船舶是国际性商品,世界上造船大国往往也是船舶出口大国.当前,我国建造的出口船已占到新造船总量的70%.由于船舶产品资金占用量大,船东在交船前往往只付总船价一定比例的预付款,建造过程中所需的大量资金需要船厂担负,因此,新造船市场的兴旺与否对船舶企业的融资影响很大.在通常情况下,市场兴旺,船厂订单较为充足,船东一般都要向船厂支付较高比例的预付款(40%～65%),这时船厂造船融资需求相对较小;在市场不兴旺或船厂订单不充足时,船东支付的预付款比例会较低(25%～35%),这时船厂对新船的融资需求会相对较大.     

Marketing research and training in Europe: A view of the next ten years

Between 1993 and 1994, important research on the future of marketing in Europe was undertaken. Financed by the usual procedure of syndicated research, its aim was to provide guidelines for strategic corporate thinking over the next 10 years.

Following a summary of the research methodology, an indication is given as to the kinds of information and trends which are to be found in the results document. Our objective is then to extend this study in terms of requirements in relation to marketing research and training over the next 10 years.     

加大的政治影响力--非同步的中美政治与经济关系

在中国和美国,许多人都认为中美经济关系是两国政治关系的基础,只要双边经济关系不断发展,双边政治关系的改善就是必然结果.用美国人的话讲,就是"紧随贸易的是国旗",用中国人常说的话讲,就是"经济基础决定上层建筑".然而,回顾一下冷战后中美关系的总体走向,便可发现这一普遍的看法与历史并不完全相符,即中美政治关系的跌宕起伏与持续稳定扩大的中美经济关系没有同步性,甚至相关性也不是很明显.中美政治关系和中美经济关系当然有许多内在的联系,但两者的变化不是同步的,有时可能是逆向的.     

从制度着手--新时期我国利用外资的战路调整

2000年我国初步克服了亚洲金融危机的影响,利用外资出现明显回升迹象.全年新批外商投资企业22532家,比上年增长31.8%;合同外资金额626.6亿美元,同比增长50.8%;实际利用外资金额407.7亿美元,比上年增长0.93%.截至2000年底,全国累计批准外商投资企业364345个,合同外资金额6767.2亿美元;实际使用外资金额已达3486.2亿美元.     

Asymmetric hedging of the corporate terms of trade

Risk management techniques such as value at risk and conditional value at risk focus attention on protecting the downside exposures without penalizing the upside exposures. The implied welfare functions are equivalent to an otherwise risk neutral agent with a put option exposure on the downside. The correspondence can be exploited to design smoother loss measures and numerically based solutions for optimal hedge ratios. A statistically well‐adapted hedge object for the firm is the corporate terms of trade, which balances up output and expense prices as a single index related to the net profit margin. The methods are applied to the NZ dairy industry to derive optimal foreign exchange forwards based hedges. It is not always optimal to rely solely on forward discounts or premiums. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1059–1088, 2006     

On the way to the next monetary crisis

The euphorla felt after the monetary decisions in Washington was Justified. A trade war on the international level had seemed to be in the offing and was avoided. With the Immediate threat thus averted, a lasting solution of all monetary problems however is still not in sight.     

Agribusiness ethics: Specifying the terms of the contract

Agricultural production in the western world in our time is primarily agribusiness. As such, a business ethics approach can be extended to agricultural production. Given the nature of the agricultural production system, however, not only are general principles for business ethics applicable, but more specific obligations need to be generated. A social contract approach such as Donaldson's, with modifications, serves to provide both the general principles for the ethical practice of agribusiness, as well as more specific obligations for agents in the production system. An analysis of three cases is offered in order to highlight ethical issues particular to agribusiness, as well as to provide content for the principles which the social contract view regarding agribusiness can be seen to generate.     

Protection of the consumer against unfair standard terms

The protection of the consumer against unfair standard terms is one of the most important aims of the world-wide consumer movement. The present paper gives a survey of possible means of regulation and of international trends in legislation and administrative control. It comes to the conclusion that effective consumer protection cannot be achieved by information only, but that restrictions with respect to the contents of standard term contracts are indispensable. Observance of these restrictions must be secured by an effective procedural control (mandatory authorization of standard terms in advance or at least an administrative control by consumer protection authorities).

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Verbraucherschutz vor unlauteren Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen

Zusammenfassung Der Schutz des Verbrauchers vor unlauteren Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen gehört zu den wichtigsten Zielenderweltweiten Verbraucherbewegung. Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über bestehende Regelungsmöglichkeiten und internationale Entwicklungstendenzen. Er kommt zu dem Schluß, daß ein wirksamer Schutz des Verbrauchers in diesem Bereich durch bloße Information nicht erreicht werden kann, sondern daß den Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen inhaltlich bestimmte Grenzen zu setzen sind, deren Einhaltung durch eine effektive verfahrensrechtliche Kontrolle (Genehmigungspflicht oder doch wenigstens Kontrolle durch eine Verbraucherschutzbehörde) gesichert werden muß.

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Eike von Hippel is Professor of Law at the University of Hamburg and Staff Member of the Max-Planck-Institut für ausländisches und internationales Privatrecht, Mittelweg 187, D-2000 Hamburg 13, West Germany. The contribution was given as a speech at a conference of the Deutsch-Britische Juristenvereinigung and the British-German Jurists' Association in London, November 19, 1977.     

Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints

This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms of trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond asymmetrically to favorable movements in the permanent component of the terms of trade—in contrast to what conventional consumption-smoothing models would predict. The second part tests for the existence of asymmetric effects of terms of trade disturbances while controlling for various standard determinants of private savings. The results, based on panel data for non-oil commodity exporters of sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1980-1996, indicate that periods of increases in the permanent component of the terms of trade tend indeed be associated with higher rates of private savings.     

从传播学视角看招商引资节会活动

招商引资节会活动因其针对性强、规模效益高、传播效果好,已成为各地政府最常用的一种招商传播方式。目前,各地政府在组织招商引资节会活动过程中存在许多问题。要想高效开展招商引资节会活动,必须周密做好招商引资节会活动的整体策划与创意设计,做好目标投资者的调研分析与前期蓄水工作,精心管控活动的每一个细节,力争活动效果最大化。     

Convergence in pollution terms of trade

To construct pollution terms of trade (PTT) on the basis of CO₂ emissions, we implement the world input–output tables for 40 countries by 35 industries to account for intermediate trade. We examine whether the PTTs have converged among the 40 countries between 1995 and 2009. The empirical evidence supports PTT convergence; PTT growth is negatively related to its initial level and this empirical result is robust to various control variables.     

The deterioration of the terms of trade by a tariff

The paper investigates the classic problem of the effect of a tariff on the terms of trade for a country with monopoly power in trade. It shows that the terms of trade may deteriorate in the presence of a tariff, by using a three-traded-goods model as against the earlier analyses in terms of the two-good model. An earlier analysis by Gruen-Corden of such a model used unnecessarily restrictive assumptions to discuss this problem; the present model is perfectly general.