"中巴经济走廊"周边国家贸易潜力及其影响因素

本文采用随机前沿引力模型和一步法模型估计“中巴经济走廊”周边国家的贸易潜力及其影响因素,接着进一步测算和分析中国对“中巴经济走廊”其余周边国家的出口效率与出口贸易增长空间。研究结果表明,贸易非效率因素是阻碍贸易潜力实现的最主要原因,政治风险的加深助长了贸易非效率,而上海合作组织、经济自由度等因素则抵消了部分贸易非效率的影响。中国对“中巴经济走廊”其余周边国家的出口效率总体水平偏低,经济走廊的贯通将使部分周边国家的预计出口增长空间平均提升约23%。随着贸易非效率因素改善,中国对“中巴经济走廊”其余周边国家的出口贸易将获得更大的极限出口增长空间。     

中国服务贸易出口效率及其影响因素——来自“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易实践证据

文章构建了随机前沿引力模型和“一步法”的贸易非效率模型,估算了54个“一带一路”沿线国家在2005—2019年间中国服务贸易出口效率以及探究了中国服务贸易出口效率的影响因素。结果表明：在随机前沿模型中,进口国的人口数量、中国与进口国的人均国民生产总值、共同边界和共同语言对中国服务贸易出口效率起促进作用,中国总人口数量和两国间的地理距离对服务贸易出口效率具有抑制作用,地理距离对服务贸易出口效率的作用不显著;在贸易非效率项中,制度距离、进口国城镇化水平、综合贸易成本等因素对中国服务贸易出口效率具有抑制作用,经济距离、中国与进口国的经济自由度和中国直接投资对服务贸易出口效率提升有明显的促进作用。中国对“一带一路”沿线国家服务贸易出口效率偏低,不同地区有较大差距,应进一步提升中国服务业出口竞争力,加强与“一带一路”沿线国家交流。     

中国文化产品贸易流量及出口潜力测算——基于引力模型的实证分析

本文以1992²010年间中国与26个国家(地区)的双边文化贸易数据为样本,利用引力模型实证分析了中国文化产品贸易流量的影响因素及出口潜力。研究结果表明:中国的经济规模、进口国的经济规模、人均GDP、贸易开放度以及优惠贸易安排对中国文化产品出口有明显的促进作用;空间距离、文化距离与中国文化产品的出口规模负相关。文化距离的影响远大于空间距离的影响,加强对外文化沟通,克服"文化折扣"现象,对促进中国文化产品的出口至关重要。在26个样本中,中国只与7个国家(地区)的文化贸易存在"贸易过度",与其他19个国家(地区)的文化贸易存在"贸易不足",中国文化产品具有较大的出口潜力,但需针对性地开展文化贸易。     

改革开放以来中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异

研究目标：研究中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进及地区分布差异。研究方法：基于中国1978~2014年的省级面板数据,采用超越对数形式的随机前沿模型进行分析。研究发现：在经济转型期,市场化改革与对外开放的发展是中国出口增长的首要推动力;在“入世”准备期,中国出口增长由制度因素、物质要素投入协同推动;在“入世”增长期,物质要素投入成为中国出口增长的首要来源;在全球引擎期,物质要素投入协同贸易潜力主导中国出口贸易的发展;地区间出口贸易差距主要源于贸易潜力、资本与制度因素的三重差异。研究创新：对改革开放以来至2008年金融危机以后中国出口增长推动力的阶段性演进进行系统研究。研究价值：针对中国贸易可持续发展面临的主要挑战,提供政策建议。     

中国与中东欧各国进口贸易的潜力分析——基于时变随机前沿引力模型的实证研究

运用时变随机前沿引力模型,基于2011—2018年中国与中东欧17国的进口贸易数据测度进口贸易潜力、技术效率及其影响因素。实证结果表明:中国与中东欧国家进口的贸易潜力较大,且不同国家之间呈现较大的不均衡性,波黑、克罗地亚、黑山可挖掘的进口潜力较大,匈牙利、保加利亚、斯洛伐克和波兰的进口效率较高。从影响因素看,中东欧国家的供给能力、中国的市场规模、“17+1”合作机制等因素推动了进口贸易的发展,而中国的供给能力、中东欧国家的市场规模、文化距离等因素对进口贸易有阻碍作用。经济自由度、基础设施质量、中欧班列等构成了影响进口效率的重要因素。     

影响出口绩效的主要因素研究及实证分析

通过分析出口绩效决定因素、影响模式以及影响程度测量工具的相关文献,文章以1973年-2008年中国和美国的年度经济数据为背景,提出了影响一国出口绩效的主要因素模型。回归结果表明,影响中美两国出口绩效的主要因素基本相同,国家的经济发展水平和国家政策措施对出口有显著的影响。文章还对比分析并解释了同一相关因素对中关两国出口绩效影响程度上的差异,并给出提高我国出口绩效的建议和对策。     

制度距离对中国服务贸易出口的影响 ——基于引力模型的实证分析

改革开放以来,服务贸易额迅速增长。为了进一步探究制度距离对我国服务贸易出口的影响效应,文章利用2009-2016年中国对34个国家和地区的服务出口贸易数据,建立中国服务贸易出口引力模型并在其中加入制度距离因素。研究结果发现:各种制度距离对中国服务贸易出口的影响不尽相同;各制度距离中,对中国服务贸易出口影响程度最为显著的是贸易自由度距离。在此基础上,就如何增加中国服务贸易出口量提出了相应的政策建议。     

湖北省农产品出口竞争力分析研究

入世以来湖北省农产品出口经历了较大的增长,文中选取2005年至2013年1—6月湖北省农产品出口的数据,通过对显示性比较优势指数和出口增长优势指数的计算,来判断湖北省目前农产品出口的竞争实力和竞争潜力。结合以上两个指标来看,湖北省的农产品出口总体来说具有中等程度竞争力,竞争潜力表现不稳定,并从农产品出口企业规模、农产品出口结构、质量安全问题、国内外贸易政策、出口市场集中、人民币汇率等方面对湖北省农产品出口竞争力进行了分析,最后为进一步提高湖北省农产品出口竞争力提出了建议。     

出口退税对纺织品出口的经济效应分析——以江苏省为例

出口退税为我国一项重要的促进贸易发展的政策。江苏省是纺织品出口大省,但近年随着世界经济形势的变化,国际贸易保护主义抬头,中美贸易摩擦加剧,出口退税政策在促进纺织品出口方面变得更加重要。论文从纺织品出口的需求、供给关系和贸易小国出口退税政策的福利效应两个方面探讨了江苏省纺织品出口退税的经济效应,主要体现为静态效应和动态效应。结果显示,出口退税政策对促进纺织品出口发挥了重要作用,相关部门应积极推进实施此政策。     

CAREC成员国贸易便利化对中国进出口贸易的影响

2007年以来,中国与CAREC成员国之间的进出口贸易额保持较快增长,但同时CAREC国家间仍旧存在口岸通关不畅、跨国交通基础设施落后、政策透明度低且变动频繁等制约贸易便利化水平提高的因素。因此,确定并定量测算出CAREC成员国贸易便利化水平对中国进出口贸易所产出影响的因素及程度具有重大意义。研究发现:对进口而言,CAREC成员国减少出口证件数和缩短出口时间有利于中国对其进口规模的扩大,但由于中亚地区在中国能源合作中的重要战略地位,CAREC成员国出口成本与中国进口贸易额呈正相关;在出口方面,CAREC成员国缩短进口时间和降低进口成本刺激了中国对其出口的增加,而潜在的巨大市场空间使进口证件数与出口贸易额呈正相关。     

Employee motivation,external orientation and the technical efficiency of foreign‐financed firms in China: a stochastic frontier analysis

By using a stochastic frontier model, we have identified several firm‐specific attributes as determinants of technical efficiency in foreign‐financed manufacturing firms in southern China. The empirical results suggest a strong association between efficiency and employee motivation, which includes the use of bonus incentives and flexibility in employment policy. In terms of the external orientation behavior of firms, the findings do not support the export/efficiency relationship. Sample firms with a high degree of export‐orientedness were less efficient, possibly due to the high transaction costs in China of exportation. As for the effects of expatriate input on production, our empirical evidence revealed that firms with a relatively high expatriate ratio performed less efficiently than others did. These two findings may have significant implications for the marketing strategies and management (including the localization) of human resources of foreign‐financed firms in China. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An examination of the cost efficiency of banks in Taiwan and China using the metafrontier cost function

Using the stochastic metafrontier framework of Battese et al. (J Prod Anal 21:91–103, 2004), this study proposes to compare and measure the cost efficiency and cost frontier gap between the banking industry in Taiwan and China. It further identifies environmental variables that determine bank’s cost frontier gap between two countries. Data on 69 sample banks for years 2005–2009 are used in the empirical analysis and inference. The empirical results show that Taiwanese banks have in general the superior cost frontier of production, but inferior cost efficiency of operation than Chinese banks. Private banks in Taiwan have the best cost frontier, whereas foreign banks in China are most cost efficient among all banks in Taiwan and China. The empirical results also reveal that the majority of Taiwanese banks are undersized and that most banks in China are oversized. Finally, the regression results show that the financial market structure, institutional environment, and political development are significant determinants of the cost gap between the cost frontiers of banks in Taiwan and China. Therefore, programs related to changes directed toward a better bank production environment can be initiated to improve the cost technologies of banks in both Taiwan and China.     

Technical Efficiency and Its Determinants in China's Grain Production

Using survey data from China, frontier production functions are estimated individually for crops of rice, wheat and corn. Technical efficiencies and their determinants are analyzed. The results suggest that one cannot be optimistic about the future of China's grain sector as the scope for output growth through input injection and efficiency gain is found to be quite limited.     

Regional technical efficiency of Chinese Iron and steel industry based on bootstrap network data envelopment analysis

This paper analyses the regional technical efficiency of Chinese iron and steel industry from 1996 to 2010 by a network DEA procedure, and provides the smoothed bootstrap network DEA strategy for the sensitivity analysis of the efficiency measure to sampling variation of the estimated frontier. Furthermore, the evolution and convergence characteristics of regional technical efficiency are examined by a dynamic regression model based on different regional divisions of China. The empirical results show that there exist significant geographical differences in the technical efficiency of Chinese iron and steel industry. On the one hand, the technical efficiency of the eastern area, the central area and the western area is unbalanced, with a lower efficiency in the west and a higher one in the east. On the other hand, technical efficiency of Central Bohai, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta economic zones is higher than that of the other economic zones. In addition, the technical efficiency has a significant improvement during the period of the Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Following the convergence notation in economic growth theory, this paper also gives some convergence evidence of the technical efficiency towards the efficient frontier due to the catching-up effect. Finally, this paper explores the determinants of the technical efficiency, and discusses policy implications for Chinese iron and steel industry.     

Services trade restrictiveness and manufacturing export sophistication

This paper highlights the importance of services trade liberalization. It is well-known that there is a strong relationship between the level of economic development of a country and the quality of its export basket. Since the pioneering work of Hausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik (2007), several studies have attempted to identify the determinants of export sophistication. In this paper, based on the existing literature, we argue that restrictiveness of services sector trade can have a negative impact on the level of export sophistication. Using panel data from 36 countries over the 2005–2014 period, we show that the impact of services sector trade restrictiveness on export sophistication is negative and statistically significant. We find that this negative effect has increased in the post-2007 period. Furthermore, restrictiveness of trade in modern services is relatively more detrimental to manufacturing export sophistication. A series of endogeneity and robustness tests confirm the reliability of our main empirical result. Our analysis suggests that services sector trade liberalization can also be used as a development strategy by developing countries.     

Analysing the lobby-effect of port competitiveness’ determinants: a stochastic frontier approach

Building upon a formerly performed study on port competitiveness, this article discusses the use of a stochastic frontier model as an interesting novel use to test, identify and correct respondents’ bias by applying it to competitiveness analysis based on perceptions of senior executives. Measuring the importance of competition determinants of seaports, conventionally analyzed using a SWOT-analysis based on (transport) infrastructure as a prime requirement for port activity growth, is an important issue to port management. However, it seems that the “institutional” environment of a seaport is also critical in obtaining a competitive advantage. In Haezendonck et al. (2000 and 2001) those port specific advantages and disadvantages were identified using factor analysis and L1-regression on the perceptions of 75 respondents, all senior executives and experts, through a survey. As regards the results of this study, critiques were formulated on the use of perceptions, often biased due to the political lobbying potential of the results. Since respondents often see independent studies as an opportunity to obtain more or early government subsidies, attract new investment projects or at least highlight the attention on their specific problems and demands, they were prone to underestimating the positive impact of the key success factors of the studied seaport compared to its main rivals, in this case major seaports in the so-called Hamburg–Le Havre competitive range. The purpose of this article is to test the assumption that respondents significantly underestimate the positive impact of port specific advantages and to see which of the respondent subgroups within the 75 respondents sample are more responsible than others for this underestimation. In addition, we argue and demonstrate that the use of a stochastic frontier method is appropriate for this matter. Each of 25 considered competition determinants of the original study is decomposed into a noise and “efficiency” term, based on the Bayesian stochastic frontier model (BSFM). In this article, we find evidence that BSFM could be used to test the “lobby-effect” or underestimation of the real effect of determinants, that terminal operators as a subgroup of respondents, are more likely to underestimate the key success factors than the subgroup of port experts and that those determinants that are directly related to government action show more underestimation than competitiveness determinants that result from private investments.     

中国出口贸易可持续发展水平实证研究 --基于1985～2003年的时间序列数据分析

本文尝试从出口贸易的社会经济效益和生态效益角度创建测度出口可持续发展水平的分层评价指标体系，并利用灰色关联分析方法建立出口贸易可持续发展水平时序评价模型，最后基于中国1985～2003年的时间序列数据进行实证研究。研究结果显示1985-2003年中国出口贸易的社会经济效益水平整体明显改善，但这主要源于出口规模扩张，并且在多数年份中国出口社会经济效益获取要以同期出口生态效益水平恶化作为代价。总体上看，1985-2003年中国出口贸易可持续发展综合水平呈缓慢曲折上升趋势。     

中国出口技术含量地域结构变迁及变化动因

研究目标:廓清中国分企业所有制的出口技术含量地域结构及变化动因。研究方法:基于区分内外资全球投入产出模型的出口技术含量和反事实分析法。研究发现:中国内外资企业出口中来自(内资企业)国内技术含量的比重逐渐强化，表明中国出口实现了一定程度的本土技术升级。对计算机业分析发现，其出口国外技术含量地域结构具有稳定性，但趋于下降，而来自内资企业国内技术含量的贡献不断上升。质和量均对中国出口国内技术含量具有正向促进效应，但更多依赖最终生产工序技术含量的提升。研究创新:首次将中国内外资企业生产异质性纳入分析范畴，科学分析出口技术含量地域结构变迁及变化动因。研究价值:准确理解中国对外贸易技术含量水平与升级。     

Nonparametric estimation of the determinants of inefficiency

We consider the benchmark stochastic frontier model where inefficiency is directly influenced by observable determinants. In this setting, we estimate the stochastic frontier and the conditional mean of inefficiency without imposing any distributional assumptions. To do so we cast this model in the partly linear regression framework for the conditional mean. We provide a test of correct parametric specification of the scaling function. An empirical example is also provided to illustrate the practical value of the methods described here.