Effects of Target Timing and Contract Frame on Individual Performance

Abstract

This study experimentally examines the effects of target timing and contract frame on individual performance. We study four target-based incentive contracts, categorised by when participants learn the performance target (ex ante, or before production starts, vs. ex post, or after production ends) and how the incentive contract is framed (bonus vs. penalty). The performance target in this study is determined by a peer group's average productivity. We find that performance is significantly higher for bonus-framed contracts when the performance target is revealed ex post, as opposed to ex ante. In contrast, revealing the peer-based performance target ex ante or ex post has no impact on performance for penalty-framed contracts. We also find that the ex post, bonus-framed contract significantly outperforms the other three contracts. This finding supports practitioners' claim that employers should reward (as opposed to punish) individuals based on their performance, relative to that of their peers, ex post.     

THE ‘REFERENCE POINT’ APPROACH TO THE THEORY OF THE FIRM: AN INTRODUCTION

There is a small but growing literature on the ‘reference point’ approach to incomplete contracts as formulated by Hart and Moore. The reference point approach has begun to be applied to the theory of the firm in 3 recent papers. This introduction reviews the main theoretical aspects of each of these papers. It then discusses the relationship between the reference point approach to the firm, the transaction cost approach and the property rights approach. Here it is argued that the reference point approach is a step back towards ex post inefficiencies, away from reliance on ex ante inefficiencies.     

Do tournaments solve the adverse selection problem?

This paper provides a solution to a puzzle in the analysis of tournaments, that of why there is no agent discrimination or differential contracting in certain business practice settings. The paper examines the problem of a principal contracting with multiple agents whose activities are subject to common shocks. The presence of common shocks invites the use of relative performance evaluation to minimize the costs of moral hazard. But, in the additional presence of adverse selection, the analysis shows that there may be no need for ex ante screening through menus of offers. This is so because the principal becomes better informed ex post about agent types, via the realization of common uncertainty, and can effectively penalize or reward the agents ex post. Thus, unlike the standard adverse selection problem without common uncertainty where the principal always benefits from ex ante screening, it is shown that ex post sorting through relative performance evaluation reduces the scope for ex ante screening through menus, and can eliminate it completely if agents are known to not be very heterogeneous. This is consistent with observed practice in industries where the primary compensation mechanism is a cardinal tournament which is uniform among employees. The analysis connotes that by using relative instead of absolute performance measures, firms with employees who are not substantially heterogeneous not only can alleviate the agency problem, but there is also no need to extract the agents' ex ante private information about their innate abilities via a screening menu.     

EVIDENCE ON THE IMPACT OF TARIFF REDUCTIONS ON EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

This paper analyses the evidence on the impact of tariff reductions on employment in developing countries. We carry out a systematic review of the existing empirical literature, and include both, ex post econometric evidence and ex ante Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation studies. The synthesis of results suggests that the effects of tariff reductions on employment are country and trade policy specific. When looking across higher quality econometric studies that control for the endogeneity of tariffs, only a couple of studies have statistically significant results, and these suggest that employment is likely to decrease slightly in the short run following trade liberalization. This is consistent with the notion that there are winners and losers from trade policy reform. These results are in contrast with the CGE findings, which by design incorporate projections of the medium‐run economy‐wide knock‐on effects suggested by economic theory. The synthesis of CGE studies suggests non‐negative effects of trade liberalization on aggregate employment and moderate inter‐sectoral labour reallocation effects.     

Growth,speculation and sprawl in a monocentric city

An economic theory of sprawl in a growing, monocentric city is presented. Where decision-makers have perfect foresight, leapfrog development and discontinuous land-rent functions may occur and be efficient in both an ex post and ex ante sense. Where the extent of future growth is uncertain, decision-makers become speculators and the spatial pattern of development is more complicated. Ex post inefficiency generally occurs.     

Market impact of international sporting and cultural events

We study market reaction to the announcements of the selected country hosting the Summer and Winter Olympic Games, the World Football Cup, the European Football Cup and World and Specialized Exhibitions. We generalize previous results analyzing a large number and different types of mega-events, evaluate the effects for winning and losing countries, investigate the determinants of the observed market reaction and control for the ex ante probability of a country being a successful bidder. Average abnormal returns measured at the announcement date and around the event are not significantly different from zero. Further, we find no evidence supporting that industries, that a priori were more likely to extract direct benefits from the event, observe positive significant effects. Yet, when we control for anticipation, the stock price reactions around the announcements are significant.     

The growth of shiftwork in the British food,drink and tobacco industries

The authors develop and estimate an econometric model of shiftworking for male, manual employees in the food, drink and tobacco industries. In the demand equations TSLS techniques are used to take account of simultaneity in the determination of shiftworking, capital intensity and plant size. Market demand variables are also incorporated in the model to allow for the distinction between ex ante and ex post decisions to work shifts. A demand variable is also incorporated in the supply equations. The results confirm the diverse economic characteristics of these industries, suggesting that inter-industry studies may conceal a considerable degree of variation at MLH level.     

Leading Indicators for Euro‐area Inflation and GDP Growth*

In this paper, we evaluate the role of a set of variables as leading indicators for Euro‐area inflation and GDP growth. Our leading indicators are taken from the variables in the European Central Bank's (ECB) Euro‐area‐wide model database, plus a set of similar variables for the US. We compare the forecasting performance of each indicator ex post with that of purely autoregressive models. We also analyse three different approaches to combining the information from several indicators. First, ex post, we discuss the use as indicators of the estimated factors from a dynamic factor model for all the indicators. Secondly, within an ex ante framework, an automated model selection procedure is applied to models with a large set of indicators. No future information is used, future values of the regressors are forecast, and the choice of the indicators is based on their past forecasting records. Finally, we consider the forecasting performance of groups of indicators and factors and methods of pooling the ex ante single‐indicator or factor‐based forecasts. Some sensitivity analyses are also undertaken for different forecasting horizons and weighting schemes of forecasts to assess the robustness of the results.     

Configuring the Field of Play: How Hosting the Olympic Games Impacts Civic Community

abstract    I theorize and empirically illustrate how the mega-event of the Olympic Games configures relational and symbolic systems within the host city. I focus on a field at the level of the local geographic community and explore how city character and traditions enable both persistence and change in institutional elements even when potentially disruptive events occur. I present two exploratory studies. The first shows how the event of the Olympics is rooted in the local field of the host city but varies by communities; the second explores the dynamics of configuring the field of one Olympic city: Atlanta, host of the 1996 Olympic Games.     

A note on simultaneous equation estimation techniques applications with a regional econometric model

A large-scale regional econometric model is estimated using six estimation techniques, including Iterated Instrumental Variables and Iterated Two-Stage Least-Squares. Following estimation the model is simulated and a seventh technique called PANGLOSS is derived. The seven techniques are then compared in ex post and ex ante tests.     

The measurement of the gains or losses to an enterprise through relative price changes: The terms-of-trade effect and real income

This paper provides a framework for measuring the terms-of-trade effect for an enterprise. This effect is the impact on the organization of changes in input to output prices as well as in the prices of goods and service upon which the income is utilized. The measurement of the effect is outlined with illustrative data and applied to the German Telecom sector, which has suffered particularly badly through adverse relative price changes. The case study of the German Telecom sector is also used to introduce the concept of real income. The framework advocated is argued to be particularly useful, since it allows not only the effects ex post of relative price movements to be evaluated, but also the effects ex ante of particular spending scenarios to be simulated (for example, investment). As such, it should be a useful addition to the ‘toolbag’ of managerial economists.     

Understanding the Fisher equation

It is argued that univariate long memory estimates based on ex post data tend to underestimate the persistence of ex ante variables (and, hence, that of the ex post variables themselves) because of the presence of unanticipated shocks whose short‐run volatility masks the degree of long‐range dependence in the data. Empirical estimates of long‐range dependence in the Fisher equation are shown to manifest this problem and lead to an apparent imbalance in the memory characteristics of the variables in the Fisher equation. Evidence in support of this typical underestimation is provided by results obtained with inflation forecast survey data and by direct calculation of the finite sample biases. To address the problem of bias, the paper introduces a bivariate exact Whittle (BEW) estimator that explicitly allows for the presence of short memory noise in the data. The new procedure enhances the empirical capacity to separate low‐frequency behaviour from high‐frequency fluctuations, and it produces estimates of long‐range dependence that are much less biased when there is noise contaminated data. Empirical estimates from the BEW method suggest that the three Fisher variables are integrated of the same order, with memory parameter in the range (0.75, 1). Since the integration orders are balanced, the ex ante real rate has the same degree of persistence as expected inflation, thereby furnishing evidence against the existence of a (fractional) cointegrating relation among the Fisher variables and, correspondingly, showing little support for a long‐run form of Fisher hypothesis. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vertical integration: A comparative analysis of performance and risk

Hofer's (1973) argument for strategy analysis by matched pairs forms a central methodological feature in this examination of vertical integration. With twenty matched pairs of companies we have sought to eliminate the major extraneous factors that have precluded consensus among previous research findings. Our results show that vertical integration (via whole ownership) is performance and risk-neutral. Support is generated for the fundamental notion that successful strategy selection, and subsequent performance, is a function of firm-specific competencies and opportunities. Consequently, we urge that research on vertical integration move forward to consider ex ante conditions of fit rather than continuing to pursue ex post rationalizations of performance and risk.     

Time Horizons and Smoothing in the Bank of England's Reaction Function: The Contrast Between the Standard GMM and Ex Ante Forecast Approaches*

The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005) , with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank's view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex ante approach.     

Quasi‐rational and ex ante price expectations in commodity supply models: an empirical analysis of the US broiler market

A statistically optimal inference about agents' ex ante price expectations within the US broiler market is derived using futures prices of related commodities along with a quasi‐rational forecasting regression equation. The modelling approach, which builds on a Hamilton‐type framework, includes endogenous production and allows expected cash price to be decomposed into anticipated and unanticipated components. We therefore infer the relative importance of various informational sources in expectation formation. Results show that, in addition to the quasi‐rational forecast, the true supply shock, future prices, and ex post commodity price forecast errors have, at times, been influential in broiler producers' price expectations. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Religion on Accounting Conservatism

This paper investigates whether religiosity, a key informal institutional factor, strongly influences a firm’s adoption of accounting conservatism. Using a sample from the U.S. stock market, we find that firms located in geographic areas with higher levels of religiosity tend to exhibit greater accounting conservatism. Further tests show that this effect is through the channel of engaging managers in activities that emphasize firms’ long-term growth, concern stakeholder interests, and avoid the risk of litigation. Moreover, we demonstrate that it is the religious environment in an area rather than the personal religious belief of a CEO that drives our baseline results. Finally, a supplementary test suggests that religiosity increases not only the conditional (ex post) conservatism of firms but their unconditional (ex ante) conservatism as well.     

Do Foreign Greenfields Outperform Foreign Acquisitions or Vice Versa? An Institutional Perspective

abstract Prior studies of the comparative performance of greenfields and acquisitions have advanced competing arguments, with some arguing that greenfields should outperform acquisitions because acquisitions are costlier to integrate, and others that acquisitions should outperform greenfields because greenfields suffer from a liability of newness. Moreover, while the costs of integration and the liability of newness are at their greatest during a subsidiary's first years, prior studies have tested their competing arguments on samples containing older subsidiaries. We extend these prior studies by (1) developing an institutional theory‐based framework that simultaneously considers the costs of integration and the liability of newness, (2) recognizing that both types of costs vary with the level of subsidiary integration, and (3) focusing on the stage of their life during which subsidiaries predominantly incur these costs. To measure subsidiary performance, we ask managers of Dutch multinationals how their ex ante performance expectations compare to the subsidiary's ex post performance during its first two years. Analysing a sample of 191 foreign subsidiaries and controlling for entry mode self‐selection and other factors, we find that acquisitions outperform greenfields at low and intermediate levels of subsidiary integration, but that greenfields outperform acquisitions at higher integration levels.     

Employee ownership motivation and individual risk-taking behaviour: a cross-level analysis of Taiwan's privatized enterprises

Privatization has long been a prevailing strategy worldwide for promoting economic liberalization. During privatization of state-owned enterprises employees are often encouraged, as part of policy design, to become equity shareholders through buying priority shares reserved for them with the goal of expediting privatization and building employees' organizational identification. Using risk-taking behaviour as a lens to observe individual-level entrepreneurial orientations after privatization, this study, in a sample of 328 employees in 14 privatized firms in Taiwan, aims to examine the behavioural consequences of two distinct types of motivation behind employee ownership and the contextual influences on such relationships. Because of the hierarchical nature of the individual- and firm-level data, we use the hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) method to test the hypotheses and find that intrinsic motivation ex ante for employee ownership can cultivate innovative behaviour ex post, whereas extrinsic motivation yields the similar effect only in the presence of a climate of self-determination and the absence of environmental hostility.     

Forecasting tourist arrivals using time-varying parameter structural time series models

Empirical evidence has shown that seasonal patterns of tourism demand and the effects of various influencing factors on this demand tend to change over time. To forecast future tourism demand accurately requires appropriate modelling of these changes. Based on the structural time series model (STSM) and the time-varying parameter (TVP) regression approach, this study develops the causal STSM further by introducing TVP estimation of the explanatory variable coefficients, and therefore combines the merits of the STSM and TVP models. This new model, the TVP-STSM, is employed for modelling and forecasting quarterly tourist arrivals to Hong Kong from four key source markets: China, South Korea, the UK and the USA. The empirical results show that the TVP-STSM outperforms all seven competitors, including the basic and causal STSMs and the TVP model for one- to four-quarter-ahead ex post forecasts and one-quarter-ahead ex ante forecasts.     

Accounting and the Truth of Earnings Reports: Philosophical Considerations

This paper investigates the philosophical nature of accounting reports of earnings. Standard setters' authoritative pronouncements (conceptual frameworks, GAAP, EITFs, etc.) hold to the realist philosophical view that true earnings reports are ex post representations of some ex ante out-there, preexisting, extra-linguistic real economic increase in the enterprise's wealth. Contra this view, in practice financial accounting executives, in league with investment analysts, routinely engage in earnings management and manipulation in order to satisfy the capital market's insatiable demands for earnings levels which will support and enhance the enterprise's stock market price. The paper considers this state of affairs from Harold Frankfurt's truth, lies and ‘bullshit’ treatise (2005, 2006). It sees earnings reports as ‘short of lies’, and so the accountants can only be faulted for their indifference to the truth and for giving the impression that they are trying to present the truth. A poststructuralist philosophical perspective, however, problematizes this conclusion on the basis that accounting language is not a transparent medium but rather is the material used to manufacture accounting ‘truths’. It sees accounting ‘truths’ as contingent upon linguistic doctrinal accounting discourses currently ceded place of privilege by standard setters and upon the subjective considerations of accountants when they produce reports of earnings. The paper concludes that both Frankfurt's perspective and that of poststructuralist philosophers can provide valuable insights into this ironic state of affairs.