Self-selection among undocumented immigrants from Mexico

This paper examines the effect of changes in migration determinants on the skill level of undocumented Mexican immigrants. We focus on the effect of changes in economic conditions, migrant networks, and border enforcement on the educational attainment of men who cross the border illegally. Results from hazard models using data from the Mexican Migration Project indicate that migrants are not negatively selected with regard to education. However, improvements in U.S. and Mexican economic conditions are associated with a decline in the average education of undocumented immigrants, while stricter border enforcement is associated with higher average skill levels.     

A COMPARISON OF FERTILITY ADAPTATION BETWEEN MEXICAN IMMIGRANTS TO THE U.S. AND INTERNAL MIGRANTS IN MEXICO

This paper compares fertility levels of Mexican internal migrants with United States immigrants from Mexico, in an attempt to shed light on the issues of selection and adaptation in immigration literature. The data show that U.S. immigrants from Mexico have similar levels of fertility to those of urban-urban migrants in Mexico. Though somewhat speculative, the analyses suggest that some fertility adaptation does take place. New directions for research which would be of a less speculative nature are discussed.     

The Role of Migrant Networks in Labor Migration: The Case of China

Using recent household survey data from rural China, this article investigates determinants of labor migration, paying special attention to the role of migrant networks. Migrant networks are measured by the number of early migrants from the village, comprised of experienced migrants who continue their migratory activities and return migrants. Observations of early migrants are excluded from regression analyses to enable identification. Results show that experienced migrants have a positive and significant effect on subsequent migration, but return migrants do not. This implies that migrant networks are important, and their effects materialize through practical assistance in the process of migration. (JEL J61 , O15 , Z13 )     

The Limits of the “Progressive” Institutional Change: Migration and Remittances Experiences

Abstract:

The financial and business expansion towards both sides of the Mexico-U.S. border, what could be called the financial diaspora that accompanies Mexican´s migration to the United States and U.S. Corporations to Mexico, has been a process full of nuances and components with different characteristics. Beyond the governments and their migratory and investment policies, the characteristics of the different migrant groups and corporations, the cultural gaps, and the “progressive” institutional changes are subject to a dynamic of survival-assimilation-earnings. Even when powerful trials of organization are observed, a strong and imminent current of regressive institutional change (Veblen) has been gaining space. This article is circumscribed to analyze some key aspects of the financial behavior Mexican migrants to the United States, who have become entrepreneurs, have had. Their enormous limitations of financing are exposed, including the different stages to access credit to the businesses of residents in Mexico and to Mexican businesspeople abroad. The article contends the transformation in financing on both sides of the border has been decisive.     

Formation of Migrant Networks

In this paper, we provide the first direct evidence on the internal structure of the migrant social network. By using a purposely designed survey on Sri Lankan immigrants living in Milan, we show that the pattern of within‐group link formation is heterogeneous across immigrants, and differentiated according to the network function (i.e., accommodation, credit, job‐finding). We find that migrants tend to interact with co‐nationals who come from nearby localities at origin, while the time of arrival has a U‐shaped effect. Once the link is formed, material support is provided mainly to relatives, while early migrant fellows are helpful for job‐finding.     

Mexican real wages and the U.S. economy

This article examines real wage determinants from 1996 to 2014 across Mexican states. Real wages are determined in equilibrium by combining labor supply (years of education and population growth) and labor demand (mostly external factors) forces. Panel data models provide two main results. First, years of education and U.S. real GDP appear to be reliable predictors of wages in fixed effects models, with very marked changes after the U.S. 2008–2009 financial crisis and stronger effects on northern Mexican states. Second, dynamic panels confirm the role of foreign forces: positive from the U.S. economy and negative from the real exchange rate.     

Migration and political institutions: Other side of the hill

The present paper examines the effect of migrant population on political institutions in their host societies using data from the local elections in Hong Kong. The share of the population that has migrated from mainland China is found to have a positive effect on the pro-government votes in local elections. This effect continues to exist after demographic characteristics are controlled. Further investigation suggests that the effect of migrant population on voting patterns varies across periods of migration to Hong Kong. These findings contribute to the published literature in two ways. First, they provide evidence that the effects of migration on political development are two-way. Migration not only influences the political institutions in migrants’ home countries, but also shapes the political institutions in their host regions. Second, they also pave the way for future research on why and how periods of migration influence migrant populations’ voting patterns in their host regions.     

Residential segregation and educational attainment of children from regional migrant families in China

This paper studies the residential segregation effects on educational attainment of children from regional migrant families in China. We find that if migrant families live in segregated communities with fewer local residents, the school dropout rate of the children living with their parents in the host cities is higher and their high school enrollment rate is lower. We employ a unique set of nationwide survey data of regional migrants in China in 2012 and 2013 that comprises more than 150,000 individuals in each year. We first use the ratio of migrants over the total population residing in a community to measure segregation. When the ratio increases by 10%, the school dropout rate of migrant children increases by 4.7% from the mean value. Secondly, we identify segregation from the housing type of the migrant family. When they reside in the dorms provided by their employers or in the workplace, they will also be surrounded by many migrant colleagues. We find that living in such places increases the “not‐going‐to‐high‐school rate” of migrant children by 35% from the mean value. Our subsample analysis indicates that the segregation effects only exist in the samples of male migrant children and rural hukou families.     

Productivity differences and inter-state migration in the U.S.: A multilateral gravity approach

In this paper, we study the quantitative role of productivity differences in explaining migration in presence of multiple destination choices. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with multi-region, multi-sector set-up where labor is a mobile input, which adjusts to regional and sectoral productivity shocks, resulting in migration across regions. The proposed model generates a migration network where the flow of migrants between any two regions follows a gravity equation. We calibrate the model to the U.S. data and we find that variation in industrial and regional total factor productivity shocks explains about 63% of the interstate migration in the U.S. Finally, we perform comparative statics to estimate the effects of long-run structural changes on migration. We find that capital intensity of the production process and the demand for services over manufactured goods negatively impact aggregate level of migration whereas asymmetries in trade patterns do not appear to have substantial effects.     

Who stays,who goes,who returns?

We study the determinants of East–West migration within Germany during the period 1990–2006, using administrative data, the German Microcensus and the German Socio‐Economic Panel. We find that in addition to income prospects and employment status, two well‐known determinants of migration, psychological and social factors play an important role in determining the migration decision. Men and women move from East to West in proportionate numbers, but among individuals who lived in the East in 1989 women are more likely to migrate. The migrant body in the second wave of migration, starting in the late 1990s, is increasingly composed of young, educated people. By focusing on differences between temporary and permanent migrants, we find that older and single individuals are more likely to return East than stay permanently in the West, compared with younger and married individuals. Finally, the life satisfaction of permanent migrants increases significantly after a move, while that of temporary migrants remains essentially flat.     

Migration and urban poverty and inequality in China

Using data from recent surveys of migrants and local residents in ten cities in 2005, this paper examines how migration influences measurements of urban poverty and inequality in China, and also compares how other indicators of well-being differ for migrants and local residents. Contrary to previous studies that report that the income poverty rate of migrant households is 1.5 times that of local resident households, we find relatively small differences in the poverty rates of migrants and local residents. Although the hourly wages of migrants are much lower than those of local residents, migrant workers work longer hours and have lower dependency ratios and higher labor force participation rates. Including migrants increases somewhat measures of urban income inequality. Significant differences between migrants and local residents are found for non-income welfare indicators such as housing conditions and access to social insurance programs.     

The importance of timing in the U.S. response to undocumented immigrants: A recursive dynamic approach

In an attempt to control the flow of undocumented immigrants, successive U.S. governments have considered large scale deportation, amnesties, expanding visa programs, and fining firms who hire undocumented workers. Using a comparative static model, Aguiar and Walmsley (2013), find that amnesties have a positive impact on the U.S. economy. However, such policies are one-time changes in the labor force, whose benefits diminish over time, and which are unlikely to stop the flow of undocumented workers or fulfill the demands of U.S. firms for cheap foreign labor. In this paper, we use a global dynamic model to investigate the long run implications of three policy scenarios: 1) a one-time amnesty for undocumented workers living in the U.S.; 2) a permanent increase in the number of foreign worker visas; and 3) enhanced border security. We find that an amnesty is much less effective than a permanent increase in the number of visas at promoting economic growth in the U.S., while enhanced border control by the U.S. has a small negative effect due to the relative size of the undocumented labor market in the U.S. Combined, the three policies offer a mechanism for supporting U.S. short- and long-term economic growth, while also benefiting suppliers of migrant workers, such as Mexico.     

Consumption and Remittances in Migrant Households: Toward a Productive Use of Remittances

This article reviews the magnitude of remittance flows into Mexican households and examines the consumption patterns of remittance-receiving households. A thorough understanding of the dynamics of remittances and consumption in migrant households in Mexico should inform policy makers of the best ways to channel these resources into productive uses. The Mexican Income and Expenditure Survey for 1989 is used to compare and test patterns of consumption and uses of remittances in urban and rural Mexico. (JEL F2–F22 , O1–O15 )     

The influence of rapid rural-urban migration on Korean national fertility levels

A autoregressive model is applied to personal migration and pregnancy histories recorded in the 1974 Korean World Fertility Survey to assess the adaptation effect of rural-urban migration on migrant fertility and national fertility levels. The objective of this study is to provide policy makers in developing nations with a model that will enable them to quantify the effects of rapid urbanization on the fertility level of migrant women and thus on national fertility levels. The fertility of rural-urban migrants is on the average lower than that of rural stayers; this study supports the adaptation hypothesis and indicates that rural-urban migrants experienced a significant reduction in 5 year fertility rates from those of comparable rural stayers after migration to the urban area. In addition, the city specific effects of migration on fertility are of considerable importance; migrants to larger cities adapt more over their lifetime than migrants to smaller cities. The completed adaptation by postmarital, rural-urban migrants is largest among migrants who are least educated. The autoregressive model controls the fertility level at the beginning of the observed period; it is assumed that this is a proxy for family size preferences. Results show that the completed fertility of migrant women with less than 4 years of school is 1.9 children fewer than that of comparable rural stayers, 1 child fewer for migrant women with 4 to 6 years of school, and .8 children fewer for migrant women with at least 6 years of school. For Korea, the overall effects on national fertility of rural-urban migration represent a reduction of 1.79 births per woman for the 1965-1970 period; it is estimated that the 945,400 rural-urban women migrants of this period would avoid, on average, 71,300 births annually for their expected average 24 years of urban life.     

THE IMPACT OF MERGERS IN U.S. PETROLEUM INDUSTRY ON WHOLESALE GASOLINE PRICES

Starting in the mid‐1990s, the U.S. petroleum industry experienced a wave of mergers, several of them between large petroleum companies that were previously competitors. Using an econometric analysis of terminal city‐specific data, this study finds that the majority of the mergers led to higher wholesale gasoline prices in the United States in the mid‐1990s through 2000. (JEL L7, L13, L40)     

Anti-immigrant sentiment and the process of settlement among Mexican immigrants to the United States: Reflections on the current wave of Mexican immigrant bashing

After reviewing literature which correlates economic crises with immigrant scapegoating and shows the former functionality of Mexican undocumented immigrants for U.S. capitalism, I argue that the anti-immigrant sentiments arising globally today have a new dimension that is closely related to the restructuring of the world system as well as to the qualitatively different character of immigration. Immigrant bashing is partially a reaction to the “deterritorialization” and increasing delegitimization of the nation-state as a viable “encapsulating” entity. Such deterritorialization represents a qualitative change in immigration patterns: immi-grants from underdeveloped to core capitalist countries have progressively formed “daughter communities” and become settlers instead of temporary, circular migrants, thus becoming economically less functional for U.S. capital. At the same time, their cause has been taken up by Mexican-American political groups, making them increasingly dysfunctional in political terms.     

返乡农民工创业选择的影响因素分析——基于5省465户返乡农民工家庭的调查数据

农民工返乡创业对乡村振兴战略和农村脱贫战略的实施都具有重要影响,对返乡农民工创业选择的影响因素及城际差异进行研究有助于为各地区创业政策的精准制定和创业活动的精准开展指导提供参考。文章基于5个省6个城市返乡农民工家庭的样本数据,运用最优尺度回归和多水平模型实证分析了返乡农民工创业选择的影响因素与城际差异。研究发现:(1)出生年代、受教育程度、家庭年总收入3个微观变量和居住地教育环境、居住地居住条件、地区消费水平、地区房价水平4个宏观变量对返乡农民工创业选择具有显著影响。(2)返乡农民工创业选择存在城际差异,受教育程度、居住地教育环境、地区消费水平和地区房价水平对城市间返乡农民工创业选择的变异聚集性具有影响。根据地区特征,有针对性地加强针对农民工的技能培训和返乡创业支持体系建设有助于促进农民工返乡创业。     

Homesickness and repeated migration

This paper presents a dynamic structural model of migration that is designed to help explain the migration behaviour of undocumented Mexican immigrants in the US. Its key feature – which I call ‘homesickness’ – is a duration-dependent disutility from living abroad that keeps increasing while a migrant stays abroad and can be reset to zero only by returning to their home country. I estimate the model using data primarily from the Mexican Migration Project Survey and find that the model is capable of explaining, among other things, the fact that: (i) a non-negligible number of Mexican immigrants in the US return home after earning very little; (ii) these ‘unsuccessful’ immigrants are more likely to re-enter the US at a later date; and (iii) such ‘unsuccessful’ returns are more prevalent among immigrants who left their wives behind in Mexico. These facts are not easily reconciled with existing models of migration that do not feature homesickness.     

Comparing the employment-output elasticities of migrants and nationals: the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council

Many countries have large or increasing migrant populations. We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to nonoil GDP for nationals and migrants using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. We use data from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which have a particularly large share of foreign workers. Our results indicate that the employment response is statistically significantly lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7, than for migrants, where the short- and long-run elasticities are 0.35 and almost unity. Lower elasticities could signal higher labour market adjustment costs. In the context of low oil prices, forecasts imply a significant jobs shortfall for nationals in the coming years.     

The gender wage gap among China’s rural–urban migrants

In this study, we present new empirical evidence on gender wage differences among rural–urban migrants in China. We use a data set that includes migrants residing in urban communities and those living at their workplaces—the latter were not included in the previous studies. We find that the gender wage gap among migrants is 16%–18% and does not differ between migrants living at workplaces and those living in urban communities. However, gender differences in industry sorting play a more important role for migrants living at their workplaces, whereas differences in education and experience are of importance for those living in urban communities. Overall, differences in the returns to characteristics are the main driver of the gender wage gap, especially for migrants living in urban communities.