Local trader profitability in futures markets: Liquidity and position taking profits

This study examines the profitability of local traders on floor‐traded futures markets. Using unique data from the period of floor trading on the Sydney Futures Exchange, local income is decomposed into liquidity and position‐taking profit components. Locals on the trading floor are found to make significant position‐taking profits. Moreover, the ability of locals on the floor to derive position‐taking profits is positively related to order‐flow related information, and negatively related to the presence of exogenous information, local liquidity profits and the length of a locals inventory cycle. Accordingly, this paper characterizes locals as active informed traders. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:1–24, 2010     

Intraday volatility in the bond,foreign exchange,and stock index futures markets

Intraday volatility for the Eurodollar, the Euro/dollar foreign exchange rate, and the E‐mini S&P 500 futures contracts traded on a continuous 23‐hour schedule on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Globex electronic platform is studied. Volatility transmission in a single market across different regions is mainly explained by intraregion volatility (heat waves); interregion volatility (meteor showers) plays a secondary role. The joint impact of liquidity variables such as volume and open interest on volatility is also analyzed. Volume tends to increase volatility, but open interest does not affect it. The results are explained by the type of trading venue. Unlike floor‐based trading systems, in electronic markets open interest does not seem to provide additional information on market liquidity and its relation to volatility beyond any information contributed by volume. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:313– 334, 2008     

Execution quality in open‐outcry futures markets

This study examines the composition of customer order .flow and the execution quality for different types of customer orders in six futures pits of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). It is shown that off‐exchange customers frequently provide liquidity to other traders by submitting limit orders. The determinants of customers' choice between limit and market orders are examined, and it is found that higher bid—ask spreads increase the limit‐order submission frequency, and increased price volatility makes limit‐order submission less likely. Effective spreads, trading revenues, and turnaround times for customer liquidity‐demanding and limit orders are also documented. Consistent with evidence from equity markets, the results show that limit‐order traders receive better executions than traders using liquidity‐demanding orders, but incur adverse selection costs. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:1067–1092, 2005     

Resiliency in the E-mini futures market

We study how quickly liquidity is replenished on the order book in E-mini futures. The results show that participants who use patient methods, such as limit orders, are often fast to place new orders, while those using impatient market orders are slow to re-enter the market. These delays are a function of state constants, such as firm types, state conditions, such as whether the order is price improving, and time-varying covariates, such as the volume of trade during the gap. We also find support for the view that certain traders delay providing liquidity during active markets to avoid informed trading.     

Price discovery in the foreign exchange futures market

Examination is made of the relative contributions to price discovery of the floor and electronically traded euro FX and Japanese yen futures markets and the corresponding retail on‐line foreign exchange spot markets. GLOBEX electronic futures contracts provide the most price discovery in the euro; the on‐line trading spot market provides the most in the Japanese yen. The floor‐traded futures markets contribute the least to price discovery in both the euro and the Japanese yen markets. The overall results show that electronic trading platforms facilitate price discovery more efficiently than floor trading. Futures traders may also extract information from on‐line spot prices. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:1131–1143, 2006     

Liquidity effects of trading frequency

In this paper, we present a discrete‐time modeling framework, in which the shape and dynamics of a Limit Order Book (LOB) arise endogenously from an equilibrium between multiple market participants (agents). We use the proposed modeling framework to analyze the effects of trading frequency on market liquidity in a very general setting. In particular, we demonstrate the dual effect of high trading frequency. On the one hand, the higher frequency increases market efficiency, if the agents choose to provide liquidity in equilibrium. On the other hand, it also makes markets more fragile, in the sense that the agents choose to provide liquidity in equilibrium only if they are market neutral (i.e., their beliefs satisfy certain martingale property). Even a very small deviation from market neutrality may cause the agents to stop providing liquidity, if the trading frequency is sufficiently high, which represents an endogenous liquidity crisis (also known as flash crash) in the market. This framework enables us to provide more insight into how such a liquidity crisis unfolds, connecting it to the so‐called adverse selection effect.     

A realistic model of market liquidity and depth

A model that realistically defines market liquidity and depth is introduced. Liquidity is the expected rate of order execution in shares per minute. Depth is the average density of the limit order book in shares per dollar. Illiquid markets tend to exhibit longer execution delays and indirectly higher risk related to price impact. Markets with low depth are characterized by high price sensitivity and larger risks. Deviations from fundamental value exist because arbitraging them away carries liquidity cost, entails impact risk, and generates negatively skewed profits. Premia include liquidity and transparency components. In order to avoid excessive frontrunning and liquidity withholding around their block trade, traders break their block orders into smaller orders. In anonymous markets, the trader discriminates against early liquidity providers, and is only compensated for liquidity. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:443–464, 2005     

Liquidity shocks,commodity financialization,and market comovements

We explore whether and how liquidity factors influence risk transfers between commodity and stock markets using a composite liquidity index and five different types of liquidity measures. We find that liquidity shocks, including both funding liquidity and market liquidity, are positively associated with comovements between commodity and stock markets after 2000, although the relationship is insignificant before 2000. The structural change indicates that financialization creates a role for adverse liquidity shocks to increase cross-market correlations. Further evidence shows that the effect of liquidity on cross-market correlations is state-dependent and intensifies when liquidity conditions deteriorate and asset returns sustain substantial declines. Our findings are not explained by business cycles.     

The role of floor brokers in the supply of liquidity: An empirical analysis

This article analyses the role of floor brokers in the supply of liquidity on the Australian Stock Exchange Derivatives market. Floor brokers have valuable order execution skills because of their information advantage over off‐floor traders and their ability to mitigate some problems related to the option‐like characteristics of limit orders. Our results indicate that floor broker participation in the execution of limit orders tends to be high when the above qualities are most valuable. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:205–218, 2000     

Competition to provide liquidity on the New York Stock Exchange

In order to be successful in attracting trading volume and generate revenue from trading fees, exchanges must allow potential traders to transact quickly at a known price. This is known as providing liquidity. On the New York Stock Exchange, liquidity comes from two sources: traders conducting business on the floor of the exchange and those who electronically send orders to the exchange from off-floor locations. On-floor traders have traditionally been alleged to have advantages over off-floor traders. If that is the case, then this might discourage off-floor traders from providing liquidity and reduce the efficiency of security markets. We find that on-floor traders do seem to enjoy some advantages in providing liquidity, although the differences are not great. This suggests that the New York Stock Exchange is warranted in several of its recent initiatives designed to level the playing field between on- and off-floor traders.     

Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets

Using data for 27 emerging equity markets for the period January 1992 through December 1999, we document the behavior of liquidity in emerging markets. We find that stock returns in emerging countries are positively correlated with aggregate market liquidity as measured by turnover ratio, trading value and the turnover–volatility multiple. The results hold in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, and are quite robust even after we control for world market beta, market capitalization and price-to-book ratio. The positive correlation between stock returns and market liquidity in a time-series analysis is consistent with the findings in developed markets. However, the positive correlation in a cross-sectional analysis appears to be at odds with market microstructure theory that has been empirically supported by studies on developed markets. Our findings regarding the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and liquidity is consistent with the view that emerging equity markets have a lower degree of integration with the global economy.     

Illiquidity transmission from spot to futures markets

We develop a model of illiquidity transmission from spot to futures markets that formalizes the derivative hedge theory of Cho and Engle (1999). The model shows that spot market illiquidity does not translate one to one to the futures market but, rather, interacts with price risk, liquidity risk, and the risk aversion of the market maker. The model's predictions are tested empirically with data from the stock market and markets for single-stock futures and index futures. The results support our model and show that the derivative hedge theory provides an explanation for the liquidity link between spot and futures markets.     

Do brokers act in the best interests of their clients? New evidence from electronic trading systems

Prior research suggests brokers do not always act in the best interests of clients, although morally obligated to do so. We empirically investigated this issue focusing on trades executed at best execution price, before and after the introduction of electronic limit‐order trading, on the London Stock Exchange. As a result of limit‐order trading, the proportion of trades executed at the best execution price for the customer significantly increased. We attribute this to a sustained increase in the liquidity of stocks as a result of limit‐order trading, regardless of market capitalisation. We discuss the ethical implications of our findings and conclude that market structures that enhance market competitiveness may help reconcile broker and client interests.     

Size, value and liquidity. Do They Really Matter on an Emerging Stock Market?

The paper extends the evidence on factors determining stock prices on emerging markets by focusing on the most advanced stock market in Central and Eastern Europe, the Polish market. Besides market, size and value factors, we investigate whether liquidity is a priced risk factor, addressing the hypothesis of its particular relevance in emerging markets. Our results support existing evidence for developed markets regarding market, size, and value factors. Contrary to the expectation that liquidity is a priced factor on emerging markets, we do not find evidence supporting this hypothesis. Analyzing specific market characteristics, we consider possible explanations behind these findings.     

Cash trading and index futures price volatility

This study examines the effect of cash market liquidity on the volatility of stock index futures. Two facets of cash market liquidity are considered: (1) the level of liquidity trading proxied by the expected New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) trading volume and (2) the noise composition of trading proxied by the average NYSE trading commission cost. Under the framework of spline–GARCH with a liquidity component, both the quarterly average commission cost and the quarterly expected NYSE volume are negatively associated with the ex ante daily volatility of S&P 500 and NYSE composite index futures. Conversely, liquidity and noise trading in the cash market both dampen futures price volatility, ceteris paribus. This negative association between secular cash trading liquidity and daily futures price volatility is amplified during times of market crisis. These results retain statistical significance and materiality after controlling for bid–ask bounce of futures prices and volume of traded futures contracts. This study establishes empirical evidence to affirm the conventional prediction of a liquidity–volatility relationship: the liquidity effect is secular and persistent across markets. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:465–486, 2011     

中国上市公司违规处理信息提前泄露了吗——来自股票流动性和融券交易的证据

本文从股票流动性和融券交易的视角出发,实证检验我国上市公司违规处理信息提前泄露的可能性。研究发现:(1)违规处理公告之前,股票超额非流动性水平和超额融券量显著为正,且与违规处理公告日的超额收益率显著负相关;(2)公告日超额收益率最低组股票的公告前超额非流动性更高,而公告日超额收益率最高组股票的公告前超额融券量更少;(3)当违规处理文件的下批日期与公告日期间隔超过10日时,公告日超额收益率较高的公司股票,其公告前的相对超额融券量显著减少,表明知情交易者占据了主导地位,处理公告的提前泄露更可能解释以上发现。本文的结果表明,监管部门应加强内部管理和提升工作效率,及时公布违规公司处理文件以减少信息提前泄露的可能性,从而有利于股票市场的健康发展。     

Institutional Investors,Earnings Quality and Asset Liquidity: Evidence from China’s Stock Market

This paper investigates how institutional holding and earnings quality influence the liquidity of assets. Contrary to findings in developed markets, we document several novel results in China’s stock market: (1) institutional holding negatively affects assets’ liquidity, (2) earnings quality is negatively related with liquidity. Since earnings quality captures asymmetric information, low earnings quality induces high divergence in investor opinions and thus boosts market trading, and (3) interestingly, the effect of earnings quality on liquidity is greater if institutional investors’ holding is at a high level. Overall, our findings cast doubt on the conventional wisdom that institutional investors and earnings quality improve market liquidity. The results are robust to different measures and alternative model specifications.     

Fragmentation and complementarity: The case of EFPs

With the proliferation of alternative markets, concerns have arisen that they may induce lower liquidity on centralized exchanges. In futures markets, the use of an alternative trading mechanism known as exchange of futures for physicals (EFPs) has increased sharply in recent years. EFPs provide a means to obtain futures positions, coupled with offsetting cash positions, away from the centralized exchange. Traders use EFPs to ensure a desired price on complex packages of trades, thus avoiding the transactional risk (slippage) that is inherent in the centralized market. Theoretical analysis establishes that any detrimental effects of fragmenting the centralized market can be offset by traders' knowledge of another opportunity to trade without transactional risk. If EFPs attract more risk‐bearing capacity, there could even be a net benefit to the central market. An empirical analysis suggests that EFP trading is motivated by transactional risk because it represents a larger portion of total trading during periods of unusually high volatility when slippage is apt to be more of a problem. Consistent with the notion that alternative markets can be complementary to centralized exchanges, we find that EFP trading is not associated with reductions in market quality and may act as an outlet for extra volume when markets are under the most stress. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:697–727, 2002     

Liquidity supply and volatility: futures market evidence

This article examines the provision of liquidity in futures markets as price volatility changes. We find that customer trading costs do not increase with volatility. However, for three of the four contracts studied, the nature of liquidity supply changes with volatility. Specifically, for relatively inactive contracts, customers as a group trade more with each other and less with market makers, on higher volatility days. By contrast, for the most active contract, trading between customers and market makers increases with volatility. We also find that market makers' income per contract decreases with volatility for one of the least active contracts in our sample, but is not significantly affected by volatility for the other contracts. These results are consistent with the idea that, for high‐cost, inactive contracts, market makers react to temporary increases in volatility by raising their bid‐ask spreads significantly, and customers provide increased liquidity through standing limit orders. An implication of our results is that electronic systems, where market maker participation is not required, are able to supply adequate liquidity during volatile periods. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:1–17, 2001     

Liquidity and macroeconomic management in emerging markets

Emerging markets have received considerable attention for foreign investment and international diversification due to the possibility of higher earnings and a low level of integration with global equity markets. These high returns often need to be balanced by the high liquidity costs of trading in illiquid emerging markets. Several studies have shown that central bank and government policies are significant determinants of market liquidity. We investigate the influence of monetary and fiscal policy variables on the market and firm level liquidity of eight emerging stock markets of Asia. Using four different (il)liquidity measures and nine macroeconomic variables, we find that changes in the money supply, government expenditure and private borrowing significantly affect stock market liquidity. Illiquidity is also strongly affected by the bank rate, short-term interest rate and government borrowing. We demonstrate that ‘crowding out’ and ‘cost of funds’ effects exist in these markets. Other major findings are that some markets are more sensitive to local macroeconomic news than world factors, the impact on size based portfolios largely depends on the instruments used by the central banks and government, the liquidity of the manufacturing sector is affected by changes in any policy variables, financial institutions are only influenced by monetary policy variables, and the service sector is least affected.