另类比特币创业实验

去年12月16日，央行一则名为《关于防范比特币风险的通知》的文件下发，要求第三方支付机构停止对比特币交易平台的支持，给高烧不下的比特币行业浇了一盆冷水。次日，比特币的价格下跌了28％。     

比特币及其风险提示

2013年12月5日,中国人民银行、工业和信息化部等五部委联合发布《关于防范比特币风险的通知》,对比特币的投资风险进行了警示.当月17日,中国人民银行又约谈支付宝、财付通等第三方支付平台公司负责人,要求不得为比特币及其衍生币提供支付与清算服务.政府对比特币的监管不断从严,投资者该如何正确认识比特币,规避投资风险呢？     

中央银行在宏观审慎监管中起主导作用的机制探析

宏观审慎监管是以时间和空间两个维度入手,从金融系统整体角度来对金融风险进行防范与治理的,本文认为鉴于央行的地位和诸多先天优势我国的宏观审慎监管应该由央行来主导和承担。央行实施宏观审慎监管有利于维护金融稳定、防范系统性风险、实施货币政策;央行通过部门和政策协调机制、信息共享机制、国际监管合作机制等方面在宏观审慎监管中起主导作用。     

国外产品事故信息报告与处理制度及其对我国的启示

日、美、欧等发达国家和地区都将产品事故报告和处理作为产品安全监管的基础保障性工作,经过多年实践,已形成了较为完备的管理模式。文章对日、美、欧的先进做法和经验进行了介绍,并阐释了在我国当前的社会经济背景下,建立以产品事故信息报告与处理为基础的反应式产品安全监管模式是十分必要的。     

2014理财展望

2013年理财市场风云际会,迸发出绚烂的烟火,比特币、P2P网贷、黄金、银行理财产品成为理财市场上的搅局者,也给未来的理财市场注入了新鲜的变革之力. 比特币——又一个“郁金香泡沫”? 在2013年,比特币突然爆红,甚至不少媒体将去年无处不在的“中国大妈”也拉进了炒高比特币的阵容.然而,从比特币诞生起,关于比特币的质疑就未曾停息.有人指比特币就是一个“庞氏骗局”,也有人直言比特币将遭遇“郁金香泡沫”的结局.我国央行等五部委就在12月发布《关于防范比特币风险的通知》,明确指出比特币并不是真正意义上的货币,不能也不应当作为货币流通和使用,受此影响,比特币价格大幅下跌,众多此前宣布支持比特币支付的机构也纷纷暂停了比特币支付的业务.     

大数据环境下数字货币的法律风险研究

我国已经正式进入大数据时代、数据大发现时代。数字货币,是大数据与金融的结合,在央行的监管下,一方面可以有效地解决数字货币去中心化所引起的各类风险,另一方面还可以减少货币发行成本、加强金融行业中的违法行为,如偷税漏税等。然而,在看到数字货币带来的裨益的同时,也应当发现其发展中所包含的隐性危机。本文通过研究数字货币(以比特币为例)的各类特征,以及与国家金融之间的关系,探讨央行数字货币所隐含的各类矛盾和法律风险,并试图提出相关的解决方案。     

浅谈央行强化会计核算内部控制与风险防范的方法

会计核算是央行一项长期性、基础性工作，强化会计核算内部风险防范与控制，必须树立会计核算内部控制理念、丰富会计核算风险管理方式、加大对会计核算人员的监管力度。     

关于杠杆率下我国宏观审慎政策监管框架的探讨

宏观审慎政策监管框架是未来监管政策的发展方向,央行提出要进一步加强宏观审慎监管,防范系统性金融风险.同时,在"去杠杆"的任务下,宏观审慎政策监管框架的构建值得我们探讨.因此,本文解释了杠杆率和一级资本充足率的关系,介绍了我国宏观审慎政策监管框架的进程和主要内容,并且结合国外宏观审慎政策监管框架的实践经验,立足于本国实际,提出了我国宏观审慎政策监管框架的相关建议,希望能对我国宏观审慎政策监管框架的构建做出理论借鉴.     

美国次贷危机对我国加强金融监管的启示

美国次贷危机为我国金融风险的防范与监管提供了反面的经验教训,尤其是引起人们对中国住房按揭贷款市场潜在风险的高度关注。他山之石,可以攻玉。美国次贷危机对完善我国金融风险的防范与监管具有重要启示。     

后金融危机时代金融监管组织体系的完善

当前我国的金融市场正处于政府监管与市场化改革交接的时期,金融机制体制抗风险的能力尚未完全形成。因此,在面对大规模经济危机的能力和危机后金融体系愈合恢复能力较差。文章结合当前我国金融机制体制现状与经济情况,分析了后金融危机时代金融监管组织体系的建立的方向。笔者认为,完善监管组织体系,防范金融衍生风险,必须在建立健全对商业银与资本流动的角度去构建,减少央行与商业银行、金融机构之间的非正常博弈。     

浅析比特币的发展

随着计算机网络的不断发展,比特币成为一种流行的虚拟货币。本文通过阐述比特币的概念与特征,分析比特币的货币职能和风险,以及各国对待比特币的态度,同时提出相应的政策建议。     

Is Bitcoin a better hedging and safe-haven investment than traditional assets against currencies? Evidence from the time-frequency domain approach

Many studies have discussed hedges and safe havens against stocks, but few studies focus on the hedging/safe-haven performance of assets against the currency market over different time horizons. This paper studies the connectedness, hedging and safe-haven properties of Bitcoin/gold/crude oil/commodities against six currencies across multiple investment horizons, placing a particular focus on the performance of these assets during the recent COVID-19 outbreak. Our findings suggest that the overall dependence between assets and the currency market is the strongest in the short term, and Bitcoin is the least dependent across all investment horizons. The dynamic relationships between the four assets and the currency market vary with timescales. Bitcoin offers better hedging capability in the long term and commodities emerge as the most favorable option for the optimal portfolio of currency over all time horizons. Further analysis shows that assets are better at helping investments reduce risk in the initial stages of the pandemic, and gold is an effective and robust safe haven for currencies.     

Interactions between investors’ fear and greed sentiment and Bitcoin prices

This paper examines the relationship between investor fear in the cryptocurrency market and Bitcoin prices by considering the potential effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic during the period of May 5, 2018 and December 10, 2020. The existence of structural changes in the time series for the full sample reveals a non-constant causality between fear sentiment and Bitcoin prices, which leads us to apply a bootstrap rolling window Granger causality test. Our results show that both negative and positive interactions between fear sentiment and Bitcoin prices occur during several subperiods. The nature of these interactions changes significantly before and during the pandemic. Thus, we contribute to the fast-growing literature on the financial effects of the COVID-19 global pandemic, as well as to the debate on whether to classify Bitcoin as a new asset, speculative investment, currency, or safe haven asset.     

A new method to verify Bitcoin bubbles: Based on the production cost

As the first kind of digital cryptocurrency, the Bitcoin price cycle provides an opportunity to test bubble theory in the digital currency era. Based on the existing asset bubble theory, we verified the Bitcoin bubble based on the production cost with the application of VAR and LPPL models, and this method achieved good predictive power. The following conclusions are reached: (1) PECR is constructed to depict the deviation degree between the price and production cost, while BC is used to illustrate the bubble size in the price, and both are effective measures; (2) the number of unique addresses is a suitable measure of the use value of Bitcoin, and this result has passed the Granger causality test; (3) PECR and BC are verified via the LPPL model, and the next large bubble is expected in the second half of 2020. Considering that Bitcoin will see 'output halved' in May 2020, this prediction is a high-probability event.     

A study on the bursting point of Bitcoin based on the BSADF and LPPLS methods

We aim to reveal the characteristics and mechanism of the Bitcoin bubble in 2019. First, we identify the period during which two important Bitcoin bubbles occurred based on the generalized supremum augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) method. There are two significant bubble cycles. The first bubble lasted approximately 26 days from November 25, 2017, to December 21, 2017, while the second bubble lasted approximately one week from June 22 to June 29, 2019. The occurrence of the first bubble was related to the considerable expansion of initial coin offerings (ICOs) in 2017, while the formation of the second bubble was affected by the release of Libra. Second, as the GSADF method cannot be used to accurately infer the time at which a bubble bursts, we employ the log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) model for this purpose. We verify that the LPPLS method can not only infer the timing of a bubble burst but also shows stable results. Finally, we demonstrate the implications of the 2019 bubble. During the 2019 bubble, due to the increased supervision of European and American governments and the impact of hedging assets, the bubble’s duration was shorter, and the positive feedback mechanism was not as strong as that of the 2017 bubble. In addition, the oscillating frequency of the bubble in 2019 was low and unstable, which means that it would be more beneficial for investors to hold the currency for a long time.     

Is bitcoin a safe haven or a hedging asset? Evidence from China

Based on daily data about Bitcoin and six other major financial assets (stocks, commodity futures (commodities), gold, foreign exchange (FX), monetary assets, and bonds) in China from 2013 to 2017, we use a VAR-GARCH-BEKK model to investigate mean and volatility spillover effects between Bitcoin and other major assets and explore whether Bitcoin can be used either as a hedging asset or a safe haven. Our empirical results show that (i) only the monetary market, i.e., the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIIBOR) has a mean spillover effect on Bitcoin and (ii) gold, monetary, and bond markets have volatility spillover effects on Bitcoin, while Bitcoin has a volatility spillover effect only on the gold market. We further find that Bitcoin can be hedged against stocks, bonds and SHIBOR and is a safe haven when extreme price changes occur in the monetary market. Our findings provide useful information for investors and portfolio risk managers who have invested or hedged with Bitcoin.     

数字人民币发展的机遇、挑战及政策建议

数字经济的发展,令我国数字人民币进展加快。数字人民币直接关系到货币数字化的推进及支付体系数字化的转型、国家数字金融基础设施的重构、对冲私人数字货币的影响、金融监管数字化转型的加快及人民币国际化水平的提升。发展数字人民币具有经济转型和制度保障、数字经济发展和应用场景、金融科技发展和竞争容错、高质量经济发展和超大贸易规模等机遇与优势;同时也面临市场、技术及体制约束,以及复杂国际环境的挑战。因此,我国应完善货币及金融法律制度体系、数字人民币监管体系、数字人民币技术体系、金融生态环境体系、跨境支付结算体系,加强数字货币技术与规则和国际合作体系建设。     

我国银行业监管体制改革的思考

长期以来 ,我国的金融机构由中央银行———中国人民银行监督管理 ,同时 ,中国人民银行还负责制定并实施货币政策。随着我国社会主义市场经济体制更进一步完善 ,需要进一步加强宏观调控 ,而货币政策是政府宏观调控的重要内容。因此 ,为了更好地制定并实施货币政策 ,国务院决定将金融监管的职责剥离出来 ,成立银监会来承担这一职责。文中就银监会设立的背景、意义进行了详尽分析 ,提出运行中应注意的若干问题。     

从新加坡会计准则谈我国会计准则的国际协调

本文简要介绍了新加坡会计准则的制定、颁布和实施的情况,新加坡会计准则的特点以及新加坡在会计国际协调方面的做法,试图提出适合于解决我国的会计国际协调问题的方法。     

Did the introduction of Bitcoin futures crash the Bitcoin market at the end of 2017?

At the end of 2017, the Bitcoin price dropped significantly by approximately 70% over the two months. Since the introduction of Bitcoin futures coincided with this market crash, it is said that the new financial instrument might have caused the market crash. The literature states that the futures enabled investors to easily take a short position and hypothesizes that the selling pressure from futures could have potentially crashed the Bitcoin market. To evaluate this assumption, we investigate the empirical relationship between futures trading and the Bitcoin price by using high-frequency data. We find that Bitcoin futures trading was not significantly related to the returns on Bitcoin futures and spot returns. Therefore, we conclude that Bitcoin futures did not lead to the crash of the Bitcoin market at the end of 2017.