不确定性、通货膨胀与产出增长

基于中国1952—2004年的数据,通过GARCH-M模型和广义脉冲响应函数对不确定性、通货膨胀与产出增长进行实证分析。结果发现:通货膨胀不确定性与产出增长负相关;产出增长不确定性与产出增长负相关;产出增长不确定性与通货膨胀正相关;通货膨胀不确定性与通货膨胀负相关;产出增长冲击和通货膨胀冲击对产出增长不确定性和通货膨胀不确定性的影响存在滞后性和非对称性;产出增长对产出增长冲击的动态响应最大,通货膨胀对产出增长冲击的动态响应以及产出增长对通货膨胀冲击的动态响应最小,通货膨胀对通货膨胀冲击的动态响应居中。     

THE MISSING LINK BETWEEN INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND INTEREST RATES

In the literature, there is no consensus about the direction of the effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates. This paper states that such a result may stem from differentiation in the sources of the uncertainties and analyzes the effects of different types of inflation uncertainties on a set of interest rates for the UK within an interest rate rule framework. Three types of inflation uncertainties – impulse uncertainty, structural uncertainty and steady‐state uncertainty – are derived by using a time‐varying parameter model with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity specification. It is shown that the impulse uncertainty is positively and the structural uncertainty is negatively correlated with the interest rates. Moreover, these two uncertainties are important to explain short‐term interest rates for the period of inflation targeting era. However, this time, the impulse uncertainty is negatively and the structural uncertainty is positively correlated with the overnight interbank interest rates, which is consistent with the general characteristic of the inflation targeting regimes. Lastly, the evidence concerning the effect of the steady‐state inflation uncertainty on interest rates is not conclusive.     

通货膨胀不确定性:模型测度与经济解读

通货膨胀的不确定性对宏观经济变量有较大的影响,本文通过考察我国通货膨胀对经济稳定的影响发现,通货膨胀不确定性主要对消费有显著影响,对投资和净出口的影响不明显。我国市场经济转型使得消费对经济发展的影响越来越大,稳定通货膨胀预期成为经济稳健运行的重要环节。为此,需要提高政策的可预见性,提高政策的透明度与公信力,完善货币政策调控机制,平稳市场供求,实现经济稳定可持续增长。     

INFLATION UNCERTAINTY AND GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA*

This paper explores empirically the link between inflation uncertainty and economic growth through a panel data analysis with a data set from OECD economies that covers the period from 1969 to 1999 and the GARCH methodology. The main results point out that inflation uncertainty has an adverse impact on economic growth in the majority of the cases under investigation     

INFLATION AND STABILIZATION IN YUGOSLAVIA

This paper examines the main causes of the acceleration of inflation in Yugoslavia during the 1980s and Yugoslavia's last attempt at stabilization in 1990. Yugoslav inflation shares common elements with inflation in other highly indebted countries despite appearances otherwise. Like these other countries, Yugoslavia failed to make internal adjustments to match a large transfer to resources abroad, resulting in a large internal redistribution to real resources through inflation. However, in Yugoslavia these internal conditions were not transparent. Instead of an open fiscal deficit, complex interactions took place among enterprises, banks, and the central bank, involving the central bank's absorption and servicing of a large stock of foreign exchange liabilities.
Failure to correct hidden losses in the economy was the main reason that various stabilization attempts failed during the 1980s. The 1990 program was the first to recognize the existence of those hidden losses and the need for a fiscal correction. The program succeeded in eliminating the central bank's own deficit and was initially successful infighting inflation, but pressures to finance enterprises and avoid a liquidity crisis in the financial system resulted in a relaxation of monetary policy and a revival of inflation. Seen from this angle, the Yugoslav program of 1990 resembles other heterodox programs that had initial success in reducing inflation but later faltered because of an insufficient fiscal adjustment.     

ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY,MONETARY UNCERTAINTY AND THE DEMAND FOR MONEY IN AUSTRALIA

The demand for money and its stability in Australia has received a great deal of attention in the past and has resulted in its own literature. Depending upon estimation method and period of analysis, previous research has provided mixed findings. By including a measure of economic uncertainty and a measure of monetary uncertainty (both GARCH‐based) in the long‐run money demand for M3, and by using the bounds testing approach under which variables could be stationary or non‐stationary, we provide strong evidence that the M3 money demand in Australia is stable. Both uncertainty measures do have short‐run as well as long‐run effects on the demand for M3 in Australia, factors that previous research did not consider.     

CONSUMERS' INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND MONETARY POLICY IN EUROPE

This article analyses the effects of monetary policy decisions on inflation expectations of European consumers. Using a novel approach, I convert qualitative survey responses of consumers in various European countries into a quantitative time series of inflation expectations. I investigate the effects of unanticipated movements in interest rates and inflation on inflation expectations across European countries. I inter alia seek to explore whether the reaction differs of consumers in countries with more credible central banks than those in less credible countries.     

MONEY, OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN CLASSICAL ECONOMICS

‘Of all the constituent parts of the science of PoliticalEconomy none is perhaps so inseparably bound up with the totalityof the general theory as is the theory of money’ (KarlHelfferich, Das Geld, 1903).     

STRUCTURAL INFLATION AND THE 1994 'MONETARY' CRISIS IN CHINA

This paper examines the 1994 inflation in China, which occurred at a time when the government was vigorously conducting macroeconomic contraction. The event deserves more attention for both academic and policy research reasons. The paper shows that the inflation was led by food price increases, a step of price reform intended to adjust relative price ratios to the equilibrium level. The nature of the inflation was structural rather than monetary. This kind of structural inflation is common in transitional economies. Indeed, it largely characterizes chronic price increases that have occurred in such countries. A proper monetary policy curbing inflation should take into account the structural factor. Monetary growth should be targeted to the extent that it accommodates structural adjustment but does not cause pure monetary inflation.     

UNCERTAINTY AND CONSUMPTION: NEW EVIDENCE IN OECD COUNTRIES

This work analyses the empirical evidence about precautionary saving in OECD countries in the period 1955–2000. Unlike the previous literature, we perform the test using a measure of uncertainty allowing for heterogeneity in stochastic processes which generate data for each country and selecting for each economy the autoregressive moving average process which best describes the series. The results obtained support the main conclusion of precautionary saving theory, showing that a greater degree of uncertainty increases saving. A less clear conclusion is obtained with reference to the effect of uncertainty on consumption growth, which does not seem to be strongly supported by the data.     

中国贸易开放与通货膨胀持续性关系研究

本文分别利用修正的综合贸易强度公式和卡尔曼滤波方法估计了中国改革开放以来的贸易开放度和时变的通货膨胀持续性,并在此基础上对中国贸易开放与通货膨胀持续性关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:中国贸易开放度的变化表现出明显的阶段性特征;中国的通货膨胀持续性处于不断波动的过程中,从趋势来看,中国的通货膨胀持续性呈现出不断下降的趋势;贸易开放度的提高对中国的通货膨胀持续性具有显著的负向影响。     

EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AND MONETARY POLICY INDEPENDENCE IN EAST ASIA

Abstract.  This paper investigates whether the choice of exchange rate regimes influences the sensitivity of domestic interest rates to international interest rates. We empirically analyse this issue in the context of East Asian economies by employing a regime switching model. We find that the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates declined in Korea and Thailand after they adopted floating exchange rate regimes. We also find that Japan, with a floating exchange regime, has greater independence in monetary policy than a pegged economy such as Hong Kong. These empirical findings suggest that exchange rate flexibility provides greater monetary independence.     

INTEREST AND INFLATION ACCOUNTING

This paper analyses the treatments proposed by Chapter XIX (Annex B) of the 1993 SNA and the manual Inflation Accounting published by the OECD (Peter Hill) as alternatives to the traditional recording of nominal interest. Real interest and interest prime (annex B) are relevant for different purposes. Their amounts are not the same to the extent that actual compensation and full required compensation for inflation differ. The recording of negative real interest is not compatible with the exclusion of holding gains/losses from the SNA current accounts. The accounting treatments in Inflation Accounting (capital transfers, additional lending/borrowing, no nominal holding gains/losses) and Annex B (nominal holding gains/losses, no capital transfers, no new lending/borrowing) are contrasted.     

INFLATION AND VARIETY*

Economies undergoing high inflation often experience a reduction of product variety in the marketplace. Existing models study how inflation affects quantity, but very few have studied how inflation affects variety. In a monetary model with explicit microfoundations, I analyze how inflation affects variety as well as quantity. I consider two pricing mechanisms—bargaining and price posting with directed search. I show that inflation reduces both quantity and variety under both pricing mechanisms. Quantitatively, the model implies that the total welfare cost of 10% inflation ranges from 4.77% to 8.4% under bargaining and is 1.52% under price posting.