金融结构与新兴市场国家的金融危机

理论和实证分析均表明，金融结构的优化与金融体系抗冲击能力的提高具有密切的关系。以此为基础，本文进一步从金融结构的角度探讨了新兴市场国家所表现出的金融脆弱性与金融危机。并联系我国实际，进行了较为深入的分析，提出了相应的政策建议。     

新兴市场国家金融体系内在脆弱性分析

近年新兴市场国家虽然在经济迅速发展的同时，对金融业进行了系列改革，但就整个经济结构而言，金融体系仍然是较为脆弱的一个环节。本论文旨在通过分析这种脆弱性，阐明它的危害，即是如何从微观角度促成新兴市场国家金融不稳定性的。     

新兴资本市场的培育与国家经济安全

由于资本市场的发展滞后于经济的高速增长,新兴市场要大量依靠外来资本推动其经济增长,因而外资的稳定流入对增长速度的维持至关重要。一旦外资出现不稳定,增长速度就难以维持,不但经济出现衰退,严重的甚至会爆发金融危机。正是这种原因,１９９４年和１９９７年全球...     

金融危机对新兴市场国家贸易影响的动态效应研究

在经济全球化的大背景下,金融危机严重影响部分国家甚至全球的经济运行。作为目前全球增长的最大贡献力量,以出口导向为主要特征的新兴市场国家,面临金融危机时常表现出高频性和脆弱性。文章通过引力模型的实证分析得出：危机爆发年中,货币贬值都对进口和出口产生消极影响,且对进口的影响程度大于出口;危机爆发接下来的两年期间,货币贬值促进出口增长,进口依然下降。另外,金融危机对国际贸易的冲击反应表明：总体上,危机期间,进口不断下降,而对出口的影响轨迹在1980-1995年间呈＂U＂型,在1996-2007年间表现为短期即刻下降,而后迅速上升,第二年后恢复并超过危机前正常水平。     

国际资本流动态势变化与新兴市场国家金融稳定

在新兴市场国家融入金融全球化过程中,进出入新兴市场国家国际资本流动规模不断激增,其波动性也越来越强,这使得国际资本流动对新兴市场国家金融稳定产生的冲击也越来越大,而且发达国家非常规货币政策对新兴市场国家的溢出效应也日益凸显。大规模国际资本流入新兴市场国家后,国际金融形势、市场预期等因素变化会使得国际资本流入突然停止并逆转流出,这在金融溢出效应和共同贷款者效应作用下,会对新兴市场国家金融稳定产生极大冲击。中国应采取多种措施积极应对,提升国际资本流动管理的有效性,审慎开放资本账户,积极深化与新兴市场国家的金融合作,努力维护中国和新兴市场的金融稳定。     

新兴市场热钱滚滚，货币政策面临考验

泰国于圣诞节前几日出台资本管制政策的举动引发了国内股市的暴跌，这不禁会让人产生“噩梦重来”的念头，因为亚洲金融危机几乎就是在10年前的这一时期爆发。当时国际游资的大规模撤出导致亚洲金融市场和经济的崩溃。不过，泰国与其他亚洲国家目前面临的问题于当时截然相反，眼下的当务之急是如何有效抑制国际资本的不断流入。     

美国在新兴工业国家金融危机中的得与失

９０年代中期以来,拉美、东亚等一系列新兴工业国家先后发生了金融危机,这些国家原本增长强劲的经济在危机的打击下都相继陷人严重衰退。与此同时,美国经济连续８年多以年均３％的速度稳步增长,并且伴随这种持续经济增长的是低通胀率、低失业率和财政赤字转向财政盈余,因之赢得了新经济时代到来的美誉。人们在分析新兴工业化国家金融危机对世界经济的影响时,都毫无例外地要谈到这些危机对美国经济的影响和冲击。我认为美国既是新兴工业国家金融危机的受冲击者,也是受益者,新兴工业国家金融危机给美国带来的好处多于害处,这也是近…     

新兴市场国家服务贸易竞争力的国际比较

利用出口市场占有率、TC指数、RCA指数及贸易开放度四项指标,对新兴市场国家及欧盟和美国的服务贸易整体及各部门竞争力进行比较研究。结果表明,新兴市场服务贸易在世界服务贸易的出口市场占有率不断提高,但各部门竞争力和服务贸易开放度有待提高,尤其是现代服务贸易竞争力较弱。     

The effect of North Korean threats on financial markets in South Korea and Japan

This paper examines the effects of North Korean threats, as measured by the proprietary North Korean Threat Index (NKTI), on financial markets in South Korea and Japan. We examine the effects of the threats on stock markets, foreign exchange markets, and overnight interest rates. We consider causality in mean and variance tests to determine any link between the NKTI and financial variables. The causality-in-mean test results indicate the presence of a causal link running from North Korean threats to stock returns and exchange rate returns in both countries, but no significant link to the overnight interest rate in either country. The causality-in-variance test results indicate no significant impact emanating from North Korean threats. Integrating the North Korean economy into the global economy stands to eliminate these threats and thus to contribute to regional financial stability.     

Contagion in the stock markets: The Asian financial crisis revisited

This paper presents empirical evidence of herding contagion in the stock markets during the 1997 Asian financial crisis, above and beyond macroeconomic fundamental driven co-movements. We analyze the cross-country time-varying correlation coefficients among the stock prices for the countries of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines, between crisis and tranquil periods. Macromodels are constructed and implemented to capture the pure contagion effects on the markets. After controlling for the economic fundamentals for the five countries, the paper finds strong evidence of herding contagion.     

The utility of a common coinage: Currency unions and the integration of money markets in late Medieval Central Europe

This paper employs a new method and dataset to estimate the effect of currency unions on the integration of financial markets in late Medieval Central Europe. The analysis reveals that membership in a union was significantly correlated with well-integrated markets. We also examine whether currency unions were endogenous. Our results indicate that where unions were established, markets had been significantly better integrated already in the preceding period. In addition, we show that currency unions created by autonomous merchant towns were better integrated than unions implemented by territorial rulers. The overall implication is that monetary diversity was a corollary of weakly integrated markets in late Medieval Central Europe.     

Scaling risk and the square-root-of-time rule in the emerging markets： Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This paper examines the square-root-of-time rule that frequently used in volatility estimation to the Chinese stock market that comprises Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market. The Jarque-Bera test conclusively rejects normal distribution of both stock market returns, while the Hurst analysis indicates both stock market returns does not follow a random walk. Furthermore, the tests for volatility scaling indicate volatility of both stock market returns do not scale according to the square-root-of-time rule and lead to bias in risk estimation. Henceforth, the study urges more alternative methods in risk management that suitable for the emerging Chinese stock market.     

Financial crises and reform of the international financial system

Between December 1994 and March 1999, Mexico, Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Russia and Brazil experienced major financial crises, which were associated with massive recessions and extreme movements of exchange rates. Similar crises have threatened Turkey and Argentina (2000 and 2001) and most recently Brazil (again). This article discusses the reform of the international financial system with a focus on the role of the IMF—reforms directed at crisis prevention, and those intended to improve the responses to crises. The article concludes with an appraisal of what has been achieved, and what remains to be done to make the international financial system safer. JEL no. E5, E6, F3, F4, G1     

Increasing the financial integration of U.S. and Japanese markets

The term ‘internationalization of finance’ has been in general use for many years now. The term simply means that the financial systems of various countries have developed relationships that extend across national borders. Another term, ‘globalization of finance’ takes the concept one step further. Generally speaking, there are three reasons behind the steady progress of financial globalization: (1) interest rate deregulation and securitization since the 1970s have proceeded in a similar form in the major countries, which has made financial globalization easier; (2) the increased volume of international capital flows in recent years; (3) the development of telecommunications and computer technology has facilitated the increased international transaction of goods and capital and their settlement using various currencies and 24-hour trading.     

新兴市场国家服务贸易影响因素的实证分析

伴随着世界产业结构升级与国际分工体系的不断深化,新兴市场国家服务贸易发展迅速。论文运用2004-2013年的数据,选取服务业GDP、服务业增加值占GDP的比重、服务业开放度、服务业就业人员占比、国家居民最终消费支出和外国直接投资六个因素,实证分析这些因素对新兴市场国家整体及对其中的印度和中国两国的服务贸易的影响,并比较分析中、印两国服务贸易竞争力及影响因素的差异,最后提出提升新兴市场国家整体贸易竞争力及中国服务贸易竞争力的政策建议。