Productivity, efficiency, scale economies and technical change: A new decomposition analysis of TFP applied to the Japanese prefectures

This paper aims to examine the productivity change of the Japanese economy using the data pertaining to the 47 prefectures during the period 1981–2000. The decomposition analysis of the Hicks–Moorsteen–Bjurek productivity index is conducted to explore the sources of the productivity change. In summary, technical change and efficiency change are two of the most important components driving procyclical productivity. We find that relative their importance varies over periods. Supply shocks captured by technical change component caused upturns in productivity in the mid and late 1980s and in 1999 and 2000. Supply shocks also caused downturns in the early and mid 1990s. On the other hand, demand shocks captured by efficiency change component drove upturns of productivity in 1984, 1990 and 1996, when supply shocks were not detected. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 617–634.     

Productivity growth, technological progress, and efficiency change in chinese agriculture after rural economic reforms: A DEA approach

This study applies a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to analyze total factor productivity, technology, and efficiency changes in Chinese agricultural production from 1984 to 1993. Twenty-nine provinces in China were classified into advanced-technology and low-technology categories. The Malmquist (1953) productivity measures were decomposed into two components: technical change index and efficiency change index. The results show that total factor productivity has risen in most provinces for both technology categories during the 1984–1993 period. Technical progress was mostly attributed to Chinese agricultural productivity growth after the rural economic reforms. The deterioration in technical efficiency in many provinces indicates China has great potential to increase productivity through improved technical efficiency. Enhancing rural education and research and development (R&D) in agriculture may also help farmers to improve technical efficiency and productivity in agricultural production.     

Assessing the output and productivity growth of Malaysia’s manufacturing sector

Given the importance of the manufacturing sector in the second-tier newly industrializing economy of Malaysia, this paper uses the stochastic frontier approach to assess the growth potential of this sector. This is performed by first estimating the production function by using panel data comprising 28 manufacturing industries over the period of 1981–1996. Unlike previous studies that used the growth accounting approach, here output growth is not just decomposed into input growth and total factor productivity growth but total factor productivity growth is further decomposed into technological progress and technical efficiency, thereby providing more direction for policy making.     

Knowledge economy and industry performance in China: a provincial level analysis

ABSTRACT

We construct a framework for investigating the effects of knowledge on industry performance. Using Chinese provincial industry data from 2000 to 2012, we decompose total factor productivity (TFP) change into the four components of embodied technical change, disembodied technical change, scale efficiency change, and technical efficiency change. Our results show a considerably stronger positive effect of advanced knowledge on production technology than of basic knowledge. International knowledge spillovers, particularly trade-induced spillovers, are more effective in inducing TFP growth than domestic spillovers. Our analysis further illustrates a discrepancy in TFP growth rates between regions, and we find TFP of the Central and West Region to be catching-up with the East Region. On average, scale efficiency change is the major contributing factor to regional disparities in TFP change. We discuss several policy implications of our results.

Abbreviation: Advanced knowledge (ADV); Share of agriculture (AGR); Basic knowledge (BAS); Chinese Industrial Census (CIC); Data envelopment analysis (DEA); Disembodied technical change (DTC); Embodied technical change (ETC); Foreign direct investment (FDI); Gross domestic product (GDP); Population density (POD); Scale efficiency change (SEC); Stochastic frontier analysis (SFA); International spillovers from foreign countries (SPF); Cross-sectoral external knowledge spillovers within China (SPH); Neutral technical change (TC); Technical efficiency (TE); Technical efficiency change (TEC); Total factor productivity (TFP); International trade (TRD); Degree of urbanization (URB)     

Income growth, inequality and poverty reduction: A case study of eight provinces in China

This paper examines the growth performance and income inequality in eight Chinese provinces during the period of 1989–2004 using the China Health and Nutrition Survey data. It shows that income grew for all segments of the population, and as a result, poverty incidence has fallen. However, income growth has been uneven, most rapidly in coastal areas, and among the educated. A decomposition analysis based on household income determination suggests that income growth can largely be attributed to the increase in returns to education and to the shift of employment into secondary and tertiary sectors.     

Will China's WTO accession worsen farm household incomes?

Many fear China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will impoverish its farmers via greater import competition in its agricultural markets. We explore that possibility bearing in mind that, even if producer prices of some (land-intensive) farm products fall, prices of other (labor-intensive) farm and nonfarm products could rise. New estimates, from the global, economy-wide numerical simulation model known as Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), of the likely changes in agricultural and other product prices as a result of WTO accession, are drawn on to examine empirically the real income implications of China's WTO accession. The results suggest farm–nonfarm income inequality may well rise within China but rural–urban income inequality need not. The article concludes with some policy suggestions for alleviating any pockets of farm household poverty that may emerge as a result of WTO accession.     

Manufacturing productivity in China and India: The role of institutional changes

In this paper we undertake a comparative study of productivity in the manufacturing sector for China and India using data from survey of manufacturing industries for the two countries. We find that productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India improved substantially over the 1998–2003 period. Specifically, the average total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the manufacturing sector over this period was about 11% higher in China than in India. We document two substantial changes in government policies in China that were not witnessed in India. First, the late 1990s saw an enormous wave of ownership restructuring due to the formal endorsement of private property rights by the Chinese central government. Second, in 1997 a large scale labour retrenchment program was launched to address the long standing problem of labour redundancy in the public sector. Using data from the Chinese survey of manufacturing industries, we quantify the impact of these large scale institutional changes on TFP of Chinese manufacturing industries. We find that these policy changes can explain about 30% of the growth in TFP of manufacturing industries. Hence we conclude that these institutional changes in China can account for a significant part of the gains in productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India over the 1998–2003 period.     

Technological progress and Chinese agricultural growth in the 1990s

The paper examines the factors contributing to the sharp recovery of China's agricultural production in the 1990s in contrast to the stagnation in the late 1980s, and analyzes the policy effects during this period paying special attention to the role of technological progress. Using data from 28 provinces covering the years 1991–1999, a conventional production model and an extended production model with time-effects are estimated using random-effects estimation and a growth accounting for land productivity is evaluated. The results show that technological progress plays the dominant role in the recovery, accounting for 58% of total productivity growth during the sample period, while an increase in fertilizer use is second, with about 19%. Extension of the land tenure to 30 years for farm households could be a policy encouraging adoption of new technologies and more investment. The contribution of this policy change accounts for 21% in the productivity growth in the period. Increase in mechanized farming, plastic film input and education are all factors contributing to China's agricultural growth in the 1990s.     

China's vulnerability to currency crisis: A KLR signals approach

In this paper we use the Kaminsky–Lizondo–Reinhart (KLR) [Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S., Reinhart, C., 1998. Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers 45, 1–48.] approach to conduct an ex-post study of the probabilities of China suffering a currency crisis during the period of January 1991 to December 2004. Two high-probability periods are identified: July 1992–July 1993 and August 1998–May 1999. The first period correctly predicts China's 1994 devaluation. The second period predicts currency devaluation in the aftermath of the Asian crisis, which did not occur. The results of the model indicate that the fundamentals were weak enough for China to experience contagion of the Asian crisis, and raise the question of the possible role of China's institutional arrangements in preventing the crisis. The paper further analyzes the economic fundamentals of China that drive the high probability of crises, and provides some suggestions for further reform.     

China＇s Regional Inequality in Innovation Capability, 1995-2006

This paper assesses both interregional and intraregional innovation inequality in China from 1995 to 2006.It is revealed that the east-central-west inequality has increased over time,whereas the inter-provincial inequality showed a V-pattern until 2003;Both inequality measures oscillated from 2004 to 2006.Using a decomposition framework recently developed by one of the authors,we determined that the major factors driving innovation inequality are population,economic development level,R&D,location and openness.The aggravated innovation inequality reflects the growth of China’s innovation centers in the eastern region and their admission into the global innovation networks.The fact that R&D is a major factor driving the inequality suggests that,considered in the present study,the efficiency of R&D investment improved in certian regions during the period(1995-2006).Finally, geographic location and openness affect innovation inequality primarily through the coupled evolution of innovation capability and economic development,resulting in first-mover advantages to provinces of the eastern region.     

基于Malmquist指数的装备制造业创新效率及影响因素分析

在保持装备制造业经济总量不断增长的同时,如何有效的提高行业效率,已成为制造业发展中迫切需要解决的战略性问题。本文将装备制造业创新效率及其影响因素纳入一个完整的理论-实证分析框架,运用Malmquist指数法对我国装备制造业全要素生产率增长状况进行了测算,并把全要素生产率(TFP)的增长构成分解为技术进步和技术效率变化两个部分,并对影响因素采用面板模型进行GLS回归。研究结果发现,2000—2010年我国装备制造业年平均增长率为11%,从分行业的角度来看,平均增长最快的是通用设备制造业。通过省级面板数据对我国装备制造业创新效率的影响因素进行分析,回归结果显示,对TFP影响程度最大的因素是技术水平和人力资本存量。TFP影响系数最显著的地区为沿海地区,其次为中部地区、东北地区和西部地区。行业技术水平、地区经济发展水平以及行业开放程度的回归系数为正,人力资本存量的回归系数为负。最后,对提高装备制造业创新效率提出政策性建议。     

A note on the CERU-MoA grain farm household survey in China

During the period 1994–1995 the Chinese Economy Research Unit (CERU), University of Adelaide, Australia and the Department of Policy, Reform and Law, Ministry of Agriculture (MoA),¹ the People's Republic of China, jointly designed and conducted an annual sample survey of about 1000 farm households in five Chinese provinces: Guangdong, Jilin, Jiangxi, Sichuan and Shandong. The CERU-MoA survey is a part of the ACIAR (Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research) project on China's grain production and marketing during 1994–1996.² Based on this survey a large database has been established which contains cross-household data on population and labour, land, grain production and marketing, food consumption, income and related policy issues.³     

Analysis of hospital technical efficiency in China: Effect of health insurance reform

This paper investigates the regional hospital efficiency in China during the 2002–2008 period, especially for how the health insurance reform of New Rural Cooperative Medical System (NRCMS) impacts on efficiency. Adopting the non-parametric technique of data envelopment analysis (DEA) to handle the feature of multiple outputs and undesirable outputs in the hospital industry, empirical estimates indicate that hospital efficiency is moderate that increased slightly from 0.6777 to 0.8098 during the sample period. However, it ranges widely from 0.396 to 1 across provinces. The regression analysis on examining determinants of efficiency suggests that a higher proportion of for-profit hospital and high quality hospital is helpful to enhance technical efficiency. We find a negative relationship between government subsidy and efficiency for coastal regions. While technical efficiency varies considerable across provinces, there is no significant difference between coastal and non-coastal regions being found, after controlling for other variables. Crucially, the medical reform of NRCMS overall has a significant efficiency-enhancing effect, particularly for non-coastal regions, ceteris paribus. It highlights the effectiveness of NRCMS on promoting medical service accessibility for rural residents.     

The relative contributions of location and preferential policies in China's regional development: being in the right place and having the right incentives

A large part of the literature on provincial inequality in China has found it necessary to include regional dummies in the provincial growth regressions. A smaller but vocal part of the literature has emphasised the granting of preferential policies to explain the faster growth of the coastal provinces. We replace the regional dummies with a measure of the ability to participate in international trade (Geography), and a preferential policy index (Policy). We find that geography and policy had about equal influence on coastal growth (3 percentage points each). Geography affected growth with a much longer lag than policy, however. The policy index was highest for the metropolises (Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin) and lowest for the central and northwestern provinces. The preferential policies are to a large extent “deregulation policies” that enabled marketization and internationalization of the coastal economies and allowed them to become more like their East Asian neighbours (and competitors). The weak (statistically insignificant) support for conditional convergence is in line with the existence of institutions that retard the income convergence process generated by the movement of labor and capital and by the Stolper–Samuelson mechanism. The household registration system ties the peasants to the land, the monopoly state bank system favors borrowing by state enterprises, and local protectionism reduces inter-provincial trade. Clearly, these institutions need to be deregulated. An effective strategy to develop the western provinces must therefore encompass physical capital formation, human capital formation, and institutional capital formation.     

制造业集聚和城市规模对城市绿色全要素生产率的协同效应研究

文章利用2004-2015年中国285个地级及以上城市面板数据，探讨了制造业集聚与城市规模协同性对城市绿色全要素生产率的影响及其作用机制。实证结果表明：（1）中国城市绿色全要素生产率存在明显的空间关联性特征，其具有显著的先增强后减弱的趋势特点。（2）从单因素考虑，制造业集聚与城市绿色全要素生产率之间存在"倒U型"关系，城市规模与城市绿色全要素生产率之间呈现"U型"关系。（3）从协同效应来看，城市规模能够提升制造业集聚的边际效应，但是制造业集聚阻碍了城市规模效应的发挥，两者协同效应的发挥需要互相匹配；以制造业集聚效应为标准，中国城市人口规模存在较大范围的提升空间。（4）从城市绿色技术效率和绿色技术进步的内在路径差异来看，制造业集聚、城市规模对不同路径具有作用相反的影响。这一研究结果为深入理解制造业集聚与城市规模协同性影响城市绿色全要素生产率的作用机制提供了经验证据。     

How does real exchange rate influence labour productivity in China?

Since China's transition to a market economy, the labour productivity growth has been dramatically rapid, in particular since 1994. This speeding up has been accompanied by the reverse of the exchange rate policy of China, which has strongly depreciated its currency before 1994, and then either appreciated or stabilized it. The theoretical arguments suggesting several kinds of real exchange rate impact on labour productivity are developed. An econometric model is then proposed and estimated, using panel data for the twenty-nine Chinese provinces and for the period from 1986 to 2007. The econometric results show that the appreciation of the real exchange rate had a favourable effect on the labour productivity growth, leading to a kind of virtuous circle: the real appreciation of the currency boosts the growth of labour productivity while, according to the Balassa–Samuelson effect, productivity growth tends to push up the real appreciation. Moreover, this favourable effect is stronger in inland provinces than in coastal provinces, contributing to a minimizing of the gap between inland and coastal provinces.     

Agricultural productivity evolution in China: A generalized decomposition of the Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen productivity indicator

China has undergone a series of agricultural policy reforms since 1978. The measurement of the productivity gains and identification of the underlying drivers thereof are important facets of policy analysis. The commonly used Total Factor Productivity (TFP) measures often lack such desirable properties as completeness or independence of the direction of the optimization (orientation). In this paper, we take a top down approach by beginning with a TFP measure and then decomposing it into three mutually exclusive, exhaustive elements. In particular, we begin with the additively complete Luenberger-Hicks-Moorsteen (LHM) TFP indicator that takes into account both input and output changes when measuring productivity and then additively decompose it into measures of technological progress, technical efficiency change, and scale efficiency change. We develop a generalized decomposition of the LHM TFP indicator which encompasses both input-oriented and output-oriented changes over time. We illustrate this additively complete LHM TFP indicator using agricultural data from 31 Chinese provinces over the period 1997–2015. Our empirical results show that Chinese agricultural productivity growth (3.05% per annum) was mainly driven by technological progress (2.35% p.a.), with relatively small contributions from scale efficiency change (0.65% p.a.) and technical efficiency change (0.04% p.a.). We also found that productivity change and the relative importance of its components varied across both time and provinces.     

Promoting exports: the role of inward FDI in China

Since the late 1970s, exports and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in China have risen dramatically under the open-door policy. The critical role of FDI in China's exports may be indicated by the fact that exports by foreign affiliates in China in 1998 were US$81 billion, comprising 44% of China's total exports in that year. While there is considerable evidence on the FDI export linkage in China, systematically empirical analyses have been limited. This paper investigates the issue using panel data at the provincial level in the period of 1986–1997. The findings support the widely held belief that increased levels of FDI positively affect provincial manufacturing export performance.     

The trade depressing and trade diversion effects of antidumping actions: The case of China

China is by far the main target of antidumping (AD) litigation for most of its major trading partners. Recently, however, China itself has started using AD instrument intensively and was, in fact, the third leading country in initiating AD investigations between 2002 and 2004. This paper empirically investigates the impact of China's AD activities on trade by employing the system GMM estimator. The empirical results show that AD protection has significant trade depressing and trade diversion effects. These findings are consistent with Prusa [Prusa, T.A., 2001. On the Spread and Impact of Antidumping, Canadian Journal of Economics 34, 591–611.] and Brenton [Brenton, P., 2001. Anti-dumping policies in the EU and trade diversion, European Journal of Political Economy 17, 593–607] that investigate the trade effects of AD actions in the US and EU, respectively.     

Why India is mainly engaged in offshore service activities,while China is disproportionately engaged in manufacturing?

We extend the model of Antràs and Helpman (Antràs, P., Helpman, E., 2004. Global Sourcing. Journal of Political Economy 112(3), 552–580) by incorporating the merits of Zhang and Markusen (Zhang, K.H., Markusen, J.R., 1999. Vertical Multinationals and Host-country Characteristics. Journal of Development Economics 59(2), 233–252.) to demonstrate why China has been so successful in disproportionately attracting foreign offshore manufacturing activities, while India has been engaged mainly in offshore service activities. We argue that the host country's industry-specific technology capabilities make the difference in FDI composition between China and India. In addition to incomplete contract frictions, the host country's technological capabilities, which affect technology transfer costs, are essential to FDI inflows. We also find that, after excluding overseas Chinese investment, India is almost on par with China in terms of the market size it offers to marketing-seeking FDI.