A multiple equilibrium model of indicative planning

This paper considers how indicative planning can improve outcomes in an imperfectly competitive economy. We adopt a model of multiple equilibria under imperfect competition based upon one presented by Diamond. We introduce exogenous uncertainty into this model and distinguish between the information provision and coordination roles of a planning agency.     

Aggregation of binary evaluations

We study a general aggregation problem in which a society has to determine its position (yes/no) on each of several issues, based on the positions of the members of the society on those issues. There is a prescribed set of feasible evaluations, i.e., permissible combinations of positions on the issues. This framework for the theory of aggregation was introduced by Wilson and further developed by Rubinstein and Fishburn. Among other things, it admits the modeling of preference aggregation (where the issues are pairwise comparisons and feasibility reflects rationality), and of judgment aggregation (where the issues are propositions and feasibility reflects logical consistency). We characterize those sets of feasible evaluations for which the natural analogue of Arrow's impossibility theorem holds true in this framework.     

Aggregation of binary evaluations with abstentions

A general model of aggregation of binary evaluations over interrelated issues, introduced by Wilson and further studied by Rubinstein and Fishburn and by the authors, is extended here to allow for abstentions on some of the issues. It is shown that the same structural conditions on the set of feasible evaluations that lead to dictatorship in the model without abstentions, lead to oligarchy in the presence of abstentions. Arrow's impossibility theorem for social welfare functions, Gibbard's oligarchy theorem for quasi-transitive social decision functions, as well as some apparently new theorems on preference aggregation, are obtained as corollaries.     

Subjective evaluations of n-person games

Using an axiomatization of subjective expected utility due to Fishburn, we characterize a class of utility functions over a set of n-person games in characteristic-function form. A probabilistic value is defined as the expectation of some player's marginal contribution with respect to some probability measure on the set of coalitions of other players. We decribe conditions under which a utility function on the set of n-person games is a probabilistic value; we prove as well an analogous result for simple games. We present additional axioms that characterize the semivalues and, in turn, the Shapley and Banzhaf values.     

Allowing disagreement in evaluations of social welfare

There is no consensus on how to measure interpersonally comparable, cardinal utility. Despite of this, people repeatedly make welfare evaluations in their everyday lives. However, people do not always agree on such evaluations, and this is one important reason for political disagreements. Thus, to keep in control of the normative premises, decision makers may prefer information which can be used as input to an arbitrary social welfare function to information which is the output from a social welfare function specified by the analyst. In this paper we try to identify and simplify sufficient welfare indicators; information which enables decision makers to arrive at welfare evaluations of social states or projects, according to their own ethical beliefs. Our conclusion is that providing factual information about different population groups, their social state, size, and characteristics, may be better for this purpose than the more traditional approach of focusing on ordinal utility information.     

The efficiency of bonus-or-terminate incentive schemes under subjective evaluations

We study a repeated principal–agent model with subjective evaluations. We construct simple bonus-or-terminate incentive schemes. In these schemes, the principal evaluates the agent every T periods. The principal pays a bonus and asks the agent to work for T more periods if the evaluation is positive. The relationship is terminated if the evaluation is negative. The inefficiencies in these schemes vanish as the agent can be more frequently evaluated. This result holds generally under objective or subjective evaluations.     

纳税筹划与企业战略

纳税筹划作为企业财务战略的研究范畴,与企业战略联系密切。纳税筹划对制定与实施企业战略具有重要的影响,纳税筹划能够为企业节约税收成本,直接增加企业的净收益,有利于企业在发展中确立竞争优势,实现其战略目标。     

Time inconsistency and retirement planning

We quantify the welfare gains from better retirement planning using a model in which retirement planning is time inconsistent. A modest increase in a household’s planning horizon by just a few years generates large aggregate and individual welfare gains.     

EPC合同风险审核的若干重点问题

虽然在招投标安排下,承包商修改招标书的合同条件(含通用条件和专用条件)的机会较小,但是,仍然可以在投标书中针对一些关键问题提出澄清、偏差或者要求删除的可能。至于议标项目,承包商与业主谈判修改合同文件的余地较大。无论哪一种情况,通过风险审核,至少可以对有关条件和条款做到心中有数,在编写投标书时尽量防范或弥补这些风险,并且在商务澄清、技术澄清和合同文件谈判时予以落实。在一份EPC合同中,承包商的风险其实贯穿了整个合同的每一个条款和每一份附件。在审核合同正文条款以及有关附件时,应该从头到尾仔细审核,不遗漏任何一个潜…     

Performance incentives and planning under uncertainty

The paper discusses the use of the performance-incentive function (PIF) by planning organizations when there is subjective or objective uncertainty. It is proved that a PIF can be constructed that achieves both allocational and distributional optimality, when there is subjective uncertainty about the conditions of production and both the center and the producer are risk-averse. When there is objective uncertainty, however, it is shown that it is not, in general, possible for the center to achieve these two objectives simultaneously. J. Comp. Econ., Sept. 1979, 3(3), pp. 217–232. United States Air Force Academy, Colorado 80840; and University of California, Berkeley, California 94720.     

Corporate restructuring--strategic planning and redesign of employee benefits

Many intricate legal, actuarial, design and fiduciary issues arise during corporate restructuring. It is critical to create a process approach that clearly defines and evaluates the human resource and benefits issues that are involved, giving consideration to legal and regulatory, operational, administrative, financial and labor-related concerns.     

Plan execution and the workability of soviet planning

In the execution phase of its planning, the Soviet economy contains mechanisms which, although they do not consistently move the system toward its efficiency frontier, prevent it from falling disastrously short of it. The mechanisms include flows of nonprice scarcity information, generated in the plan's execution, and responses to that information, improvised both by the central planners and by subordinate participants. The information is usually poor, but, for any given error in it, the odds increase with the degree of initial inefficiency that the responses will be toward the frontier. At identifiable limits, responses in the right direction become certain.     

超声联合核磁共振检查诊断乳腺癌的效率及经济性分析

目的：结合病理组织学探讨联合应用彩色超声成像和核磁共振（MRI）对乳腺癌的诊断价值。方法：回顾性分析经手术或组织学活检病理证实的74例乳腺癌患者（97个病灶）及良性肿块70例患者（75个病灶）的术前彩色超声成像及核磁共振检查资料,比较两种检查方法及联合应用的诊断效率,同时与病理组织学结果对照。结果：超声、核磁共振及两者联合应用,对乳腺癌诊断的敏感性分别为76．3％、82．5％和87．6％,特异性分别为92．0％、88．0％和96．0％,符合率分别为83．1％、84．9％和91．3％,统计学分析比较无显著性差异（P〉0．05）。两种检查方法及联合应用的经济性分析显示,采用超声检查,其费用支出仅为MRI的约1／10,为联合应用法的约1／11;如都实施穿刺病理检查,则超声穿刺法的费用支出较MRI或联合法节约一半以上。结论：超声、核磁共振检查对乳腺癌的诊断都具有较高的特异性和敏感性,而联合检查可以有效地提高符合率。考虑到经济性效率,采用超声结合病理穿刺诊断乳腺癌更适于高危人群筛查。     

Economic planning for market economies : The optimality of planning in an economy with uncertainty and asymmetrical information

The paper is based on a disequilibrium model which is Keynesian in the ‘short run’, ie with given expectations, but which admits of a continuum of equilibria when expectations are rational. Expectations are adaptive (so that they are rational only in the long run) but can be influenced by an indicative plan. The government and the private sector have differing information sets, each knowing some things the other sector does not (spontaneously) know. It is shown that in this world, an optimal plan dominates a self-fulfilling plan, which in turn dominates a no-planning equilibrium.     

Ethical evaluations, intentions, and orientations of accountants: Evidence from a cross-cultural examination

Society has high expectations concerning accounting professionals. More than ever, accountants need professional values and ethics that allow them to operate successfully and with integrity in a changing world. This study is a first attempt to understand the ethical evaluations, intentions, and orientations of accounting professionals and students from Latin American countries. Another objective is to validate the multidimensional ethics scale used by Cohen et al. [1998] in an international setting. The results did not validate such a scale but offer interesting findings about the Latin American sample. In such a context, ethics appear to be a collective concern guided by a different concept of equity. The results indicate that the respondents consider justice a superior value over what is considered correct, acceptable, or good.     

Forecasting and planning in an incoherent context

What follows concerning the predicament of forecasts and planning is subject to the same criticisms and constraints I apply to them and their context. My observations are also forecasts: stories based on arbitrary and fragmentary images of social “reality” and my words share the same dubious status as words per se that I shall describe later. But all of us are sinking in this ontological and epistemological swamp: To paraphrase the Tao Te Ching, those who know can not say: those who say do not know. So be it.     

浅论城市规划与城市生态系统建设

要建好生态城市，就必须加强城市规划，既考虑到现今的生态关系和生态质量，又考虑到城市未来的生态关系和质量，从而使城市和城市生态系统得以持续发展，使人与自然得以和谐发展。