NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT BILATERAL TRADE EFFECTS

This study evaluates the effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on bilateral trade between the United States and Canada and between the United States and Mexico. Trade flow estimates are from a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The VAR methodology allows modeling bilateral trade in a flexible manner that incorporates both the interaction between different variables and the dynamics of trade, output, prices, and the exchange rate. After testing the outside sample forecasting ability of the models, the study produces dynamic forecasts of bilateral trade. It then compares forecasts incorporating the effects of the NAFTA with baseline forecasts. The results suggest expanded trade for all three countries and an improvement in the U.S. trade position with both Canada and Mexico.     

BILATERALISM AND FREE TRADE*

We study a setting with many countries; in each country there are firms that can sell in the domestic as well as foreign markets. Countries can sign bilateral free‐trade agreements that lower import tariffs and thereby facilitate trade. We allow a country to sign any number of bilateral free‐trade agreements. A profile of free‐trade agreements defines the trading regime. Our principal finding is that, in symmetric settings, bilateralism is consistent with global free trade. We also explore the effects of asymmetries across countries and political economy considerations on the incentives to form trade agreements.     

外部关税约束、自由贸易区规模与世界自由贸易

该文在外部关税约束条件下分析了几种不同类型的自由贸易区与世界自由贸易的关系,该文结果显示,一个实行开放成员国地位的自由贸易区可以实现世界自由贸易,但是当自由贸易区以追求成员国福利最大化为目标时,在世界规模大于4时,该自由贸易区的扩张不可能最终实现世界自由贸易.该文还研究了对称的自由贸易区是否可以通过进一步的融合从而把世界变成一个一体化的自由贸易区,结果显示,具有对称市场能力的自由贸易区可以通过进一步的融合提高成员国福利,从而最终实现世界自由贸易.     

FREE TRADE, NATIONALISM, AND THE COMMON MAN: THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT BETWEEN CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES

This paper discusses the forces that have been at play in the debate over the recently concluded Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. Most economists agree that free trade is desirable and that both parties likely will gain from specialization and exchange. But many objections to this agreement have been raised, some of which are very different from those that economists usually consider. A review of the agreement and many of the arguments raised against it reinforces the basic credo that freer exchange between consenting parties leads to improved economic well-being.     

OCEAN SHIPPING ECONOMICS: FREE TRADE AND ANTITRUST IMPLICATIONS

Many economists and antitrust experts claim that ocean shipping conferences are essentially legalized cartels. They often advocate eliminating ocean shipping conferences' antitrust immunity. This paper argues that conferences also help to coordinate their members' joint investments and thereby allow the historically small firms in this industry to exploit vast network economies (akin to those in other transportation industries) that small firms could not capture on their own. The paper proposes reducing rather than eliminating immunity and calls for an end to many of the regulations currently stifling the industry.     

FREE TRADE AREAS AND RULES OF ORIGIN: ECONOMICS AND POLITICS

Incorporating an intermediate input into a simple small-union general-equilibrium model, this paper first develops the welfare economics of preferential trading under the rules of origin (ROO) and then demonstrates that ROOs can improve the political viability of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Two interesting outcomes are derived. First, a welfare-reducing FTA that was rejected in the absence of ROOs can become feasible in the presence of these rules. Second, a welfare- improving FTA that was rejected in the absence of ROOs can be endorsed in their presence, but upon endorsement it can become welfare inferior relative to the status quo.     

LABOR INCOME DIFFERENTIALS WITHIN THE LATIN AMERICAN FREE TRADE AREA (LAFTA)

This article considers the major results of a study of relative wage structures in the LAFTA region. It first discusses the nature and methodology of the study, which was undertaken for ECIEL. Data on the size of labor income differences are introduced, and an attempt is made to determine the causes of such differences, and to relate them to various wage differentials. The main findings of the study are then summarized, with discussions of inter-country, intra-country, and occupational labor income differentials and their causes. Finally, the results of the study are updated to the end of 1970, and some conclusions are derived regarding the inter-temporal behavior of wages in LAFTA.     

BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA: IMPLICATIONS OF THE FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study's primary objective is to evaluate empirically the economic effects of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The paper emphasizes bilateral trade flows of agricultural and industrial products between the United States and Canada, given that the FTA removes tariff and non-tariff barriers. It evaluates the FTA's impact on the two countries' trade with third countries. The paper specifies a traditional log-linear trade model consisting of import demand and export supply equations for both agricultural and industrial products. It uses quarterly time-series U.S. and Canadian trade data for 1972–1985.
The study uses the two-stage least-squares estimator to estimate the models. The models had R coefficients ranging from 0.78 to 0.99, indicating that the models' explanatory variables explain most causes of variations in the dependent variable. This study reveals that U.S. imports of agricultural and industrial products from Canada were more sensitive than were Canadian imports not only to import and domestic prices but also to world prices. This is because Canadian consumers have less domestic substitutes than do their U.S. counterparts. Also, Canada has a smaller internal market than does the United States. The study estimates that U.S. imports from Canada will increase $2.8 billion while Canadian imports from the United States will increase $1.2 billion. The impact on the two countries' trade with third-party countries will be insignificant.     

关于绥芬河辟建自由经贸区的探讨

绥芬河是沿边开放的内陆口岸城镇,以单一的、且层次较低的商贸业为其主导产业。本文分析了其必然性和发展障碍,认为辟建内陆边境的自由经济贸易区应是保障持续发展的一种产业开发模式。     

TRADE CREATION AND DIVERSION EFFECTS OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This study empirically estimates and evaluates the economic benefits of the U.S. and Canadian Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Most past studies rely on aggregate data. The analysis here emphasizes the trade effects of removing tariff and nontariff barriers on each commodity group classified by the Standard International Trade Classification. Estimating the amount of trade expansion under FTA for both countries involves using the import demand elasticities from a dynamic demand model. Results show that U.S. imports from Canada are more sensitive to domestic, import, and world prices than are Canadian imports from the United States. U.S. imports from Canada would increase roughly £3.257 billion compared to the £2.432 billion increase for Canadian imports from the United States .     

OF MICE AND ELEPHANTS: THE CANADA-U.S. FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This paper critically assesses the free trade agreement between Canada and the United States. Reviewing the theoretical literature on the gains from trade and the empirical literature on bilateral trade liberalization reveals that no presumption should exist that bilateral free trade would significantly improve Canada's welfare. Moreover, because of uncertainty over future abrogation or contingent protection actions, much of the predicted rationalization of Canadian industry may not occur. If, on the other hand, firms in Canada make major investments to take advantage of the agreement, Canada's bargaining position with the United States on trade and other issues could be weakened.     

EAST ASIAN REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS: DO THEY PROMOTE GLOBAL FREE TRADE?

Abstract.  We quantitatively evaluate the effects different paths have on East Asian Regional Trade Agreements (RTA), which include expansionary, duplicate and overlapping RTAs. By applying a computable general equilibrium model analysis, we find that the static effect of existing, proposed and negotiating East Asian RTAs on world and members' welfare is sufficiently positive. It will lead to non-discriminatory global free trade, by triggering the domino effect of regionalism if the RTAs take an expansionary path by cooperating with each other, in contrast to competing to achieve the first mover advantage, or hub self-interest.     

FREE TRADE NETWORKS WITH TRANSFERS*

We investigate the network of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) in the context of a network formation game with transfers. In a previous paper we showed that without international transfers countries with different industrialization levels cannot sign an FTA, so that the global free trade network, in which every pair of countries signs an FTA, is not in general pairwise‐stable. In this paper we show that, even if the world consists of fairly asymmetric countries, the global free trade network is pairwise‐stable when transfers between FTA signatories are allowed. Moreover, it is a unique pairwise‐stable network unless industrial commodities are highly substitutable.     

城市滨水区旅游开发初探--北美的成功经验及其启示

本世纪70年代,北美城市滨水区旅游开发即已初见成效.本文简要回顾了北美城市滨水区再开发的背景与概况,选取两个实例美国巴尔的摩内港和加拿大维多利亚内港,对其开发过程、开发效果和特征进行了总结,并重点从开发模式、规划问题、开发管理和设计问题四方面,剖析了北美城市滨水区旅游开发经验对中国的启示.     

DYNAMICS BETWEEN NORTH AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN AGRICULTURAL FUTURES PRICES DURING TURMOIL AND FINANCIALIZATION

North American and European agricultural futures markets faced significant changes in recent years, i.e., the financialization which originated in the USA, the increase of futures trading in Europe and the recent price turmoils in international commodity markets. We analyse the long‐ and short‐run dynamics between North American and European agricultural futures prices during these institutional changes. The empirical results show that the US markets lead in terms of price transmissions and volatility spillovers. US markets, however, predominantly react to deviations from the long‐run equilibrium which indicates a rising impact of European agricultural markets on a global scale.     

中国保税港区的布局特征与发展战略

国际上知名的港口大多是自由港,即一般认为的自由贸易区.在我国今后经济发展的任务中,提出了要"实施自由贸易区战略".我国保税港区是在己成立的保税区基础上优化发展而来,在一定程度上保税港区就是国际上通行的自由港.自2005年到2008年,经我国国务院批准,在沿海地区建立了上海洋山、天津东疆、大连大窑湾、海南洋浦、宁波梅山、广西钦州、厦门海沧、青岛前湾、广州南沙以及重庆等10个保税港区,其中在重庆设立的是一个内陆保税港区.以上10个保税港区:从我国的行政经济区分布来看,除西北经济区外都有分布.从沿海港口体系看,环渤海、长三角、东南沿海、珠江三角洲和西南沿海港口体系均有分布,重庆则属内陆港口体系.论文对目前没立的保税港区的作用与功能.形成条件与过程,空间分布特征与类型,在地区经济发展中作用和拉动效应进行了分析.并对我国保税港区今后的发展趋势进行了探讨.     

INTEGRATION OF NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICAN PLAYERS IN JAPAN'S PROFESSIONAL BASEBALL LEAGUES

Teams in Japan's two professional baseball leagues began to add foreign players in the early 1950s, with the average number per team reaching 5.79 in 2004. This was primarily because foreign hitters outperformed Japanese hitters. Hazard analysis shows that a poorly performing team was more likely to hire its first Caucasian and African American players earlier than a successful team. Econometric analysis of team use of foreign players over 45 seasons (1960–2004) shows that losing Central League teams used foreign players more often in following season(s), whereas past success of Pacific League teams did not affect their use of foreign players.     

绿色轨迹——北美都市区开放空间保护评述与启示

阐述了都市区尺度下开放空间保护目标的多元化趋势及生态保护、休憩娱乐、游憩走廊、社区复兴,以及城市绿色基础设施等五个最为突出的目标,并强调开放空间形态的连续性是以上多元目标与价值得以实现的至关重要的因素。选取北美十大都市区开放空间规划的典型案例,在对比剖析其连续开放空间保护发展轨迹及影响因素的基础上,指出目标冲突不可完全避免,休憩娱乐、游憩走廊与社区复兴必须建立在生态保护的基础之上,绿色基础设施则是目标整合的思维方式;总结北美绿色轨迹的特征,最后从我国开放空间保护的现实出发,提出整合现有开放空间、将开放空间规划与城市增长管理有机结合及"病毒"式扩散策略等建议。