Growth limitation and political power : Bruno Fritsch,Ballinger Publishing Company,Cambridge, Mass.

Standardization in modeling is understood here as a strategic process to improve the transfer of models and modeling know-how, to diminish the gap between model builders and model users, and to make the art of modeling an honorable science on a consolidated basis. Within the wide spectrum of standardization efforts, this paper reflects on a general approach for an improvement of model transfer, based on technical concepts for the next generation of software tools. These tools will be developed for large-scale modeling activities. Three formal software concepts to meet these needs are discussed: modularization, software interfaces, and integrated modeling systems. Although modularization is understood here as a concept characterizing the transferable good (the models), the other two concepts refer to output (or input) characteristics of the modeling tools and to their performance requirements. Some remarks on implementation of technical standards are added.     

The evolution of socio-economic modeling in Canada

For the past 15 years the authors have been associated with a research program concerned with the development of structural economic models that had their origins in the input-output models of Leontief. This program has produced a set of conceptual tools embracing a new approach to socio-economic modeling which we term the “design approach.” This approach draws on general systems theory and control theory in application to large social systems. Also emerging from this program as its test prototype is a particular set of models designed for society wide resource analysis and a set of software tools within which design approach models can be designed, implemented, and operated. The design approach provides a new method of assessing technologies in regard to their overall socio-economic resource impact. The objective of this paper is to describe the unique institutional setting and the particular issues which provided the setting and the motivation for embarking on a large scale modeling program. The paper is organized chronologically, describing first of all the evolution of the program approach, the software tools, the Socio-Economic Resource Framework (SERF), which is the prototype set of models that have been implemented, and some results obtained from it.     

Corporate culture, strategic orientation, and business performance: New approaches to modeling complex relationships

This paper introduces the idea of using a complex biochemical model as an alternative method for modeling managerial constructs in order to incorporate change within organizations. To illustrate the potential of using this type of modelling, two well established managerial concepts (strategic orientation and corporate culture) are reviewed and the differences and similarities between the constructs discussed. Traditional simplistic models are presented and the limitations of these for dealing with change within and between organizations are discussed. A more complex model based on enzyme action is presented, and integrated with case study material which allows rich, complex and dynamic modeling including the incorporation of evolutionary and co-evolutionary change within organizations.     

The econometric critique of computable general equilibrium modeling: the role of functional forms

Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are among the most influential tools in applied economics. However, some serious questions have been raised about the empirical validity of these models. The core of the critique is that the parameter selection criteria are unsound and the use of first-order (CES class) functional forms imposes influential restrictions on the model's structure. A formal summary of the case against standard CGE modeling is presented, as is an alternative econometric-based modeling strategy which answers the critique. We then present a comparative CGE modeling experiment designed to assess the role of function forms. It is found that choice of functional forms affects not only industry-specific results, but aggregate results as well, even for small policy shocks.     

The use of modeling tools for policy in evolutionary environments

This is a position paper on the possibilities of informing the (economic and environmental) policy debate by using quantitative evolutionary models. I argue that an evolutionary worldview implies that the existing quantitative modeling tools used for policy analysis are problematic. Then I summarize the main elements of an evolutionary way of analysis, and the way in which it can be incorporated into quantitative models. I conclude with an outline of a proposal for how to apply the ideas in the analysis of energy transitions.     

The Narrow and Broad Approaches to Evolutionary Modeling in Economics

Some models in evolutionary economics rely on direct analogies to genetic evolution, assuming a population of firms with routines, technologies, and strategies on which forces of diversity generation and selection act. This narrow conception can build upon previous findings from evolutionary biology. Broader concepts of evolution allow many or just one adaptive entity, instead of necessarily requiring a population. Thus, an institution or a society can also be understood as an evolutionary entity. Both the narrow and broad approaches have been extensively used in the literature, albeit in different literature traditions. I provide an overview of the conception and development of both approaches to evolutionary modeling, and argue that a generalization is needed to realize the full potential of evolutionary modeling.     

On the human aspects in structural modeling

This article deals with two facets of structural modeling often ignored: a) the several human roles that effective participative modeling must encompass, and b) the group procedures developed to assist modelers in defining the elements of the system to be modeled. The roles are 1) the method technician, 2) the facilitator, and 3) the participant. Their recognition on the part of the technology assessment leader is vital to the successful conduct of participative modeling. The element-generating group procedures surveyed here are organized into two categories: those which emphasize an atmosphere for free-wheeling thinking, and those which emphasize structured guidance (either through use of words or geometric and analytic techniques).     

Structure and use of the Integrated World Model

Most global models address quantitative aspects of socioeconomic behavior as extrapolated from an assumed initial global set of states. This paper describes a model designed to include explicit decision criteria based on the user's ethical persuasions. The regional structure of the model permits simulation of differing sets of social emphases at the level of nations or political groupings of nations. The model may be thought of as an intermediate stage in a long-range trend toward development of interactive decision modeling systems which incorporate several different modeling concepts into a larger user-interactive system.     

The gravity approach for modeling international trade patterns for economies in transition

The advantages of using the gravity approach for modeling transition processes in foreign trade are the ability of gravity models to explain international trade patterns under the conditions of comparatively little data and for validity of theoretical background of the model to the economies in transition. Both advantages are important when modeling transition processes. The results from using the gravity approach to explore the international trade patterns of Estonia as a country with a small, open, and comparatively successful transitional economy allow us to conclude that economies in transition should look for a regional niche to penetrate into the world market. Estonia has an excellent potential to develop trade relations within the Baltic Sea region (Baltic Rim) countries. Estonia's situation is certainly not unique, and conclusions presented in this paper could be applied to analyses of international trade patterns in other economies in transition.This paper was prepared with the support of the Estonian Science Foundation research grant (3067). The author is grateful for this support.     

Forecasting with a state space time-varying parameter VAR model: Evidence from the Euro area

Standard VAR and Bayesian VAR models are proven to be reliable tools for modeling and forecasting, yet they are still linear and they do not consider time-variation in parameters. VAR modeling is subject to the Lucas critique and fails to take into account the inherent nonlinearities of the economy, while it can only be utilized in the analysis of stationary series and in many cases stationarity assumptions are too restrictive. A novel time-varying multivariate state-space estimation method for vector autoregression models is introduced. For the time-varying parameter model (TVP-VAR), the parameters are estimated using a multivariate specification of the standard Kalman filter (Harvey, 1990) combined with a suitable extension of the univariate methodology framework of Kim and Nelson (1999). The TVP-VAR model as well as standard VARs and Bayesian VARs, are used in a comparative investigation of their predicting performance for the monthly IP, CPI and Euribor rate of the EU economy. The total period covers 1999:1–2011:2 with an out-of-sample testing period of 2007:2 to 2011:2, which included the US sub-prime and the EU debt crisis sub-periods. The results varied across the investigated time series and indicated that the TVP-VAR model consistently outperforms the other models in case of the EU monthly CPI, while different specifications of the VAR and BVAR models for the IP and Euribor series provide with better forecasting performance. Interestingly, the robustness analysis showed that the TVP-VAR model provided with enhanced predictability in particular during “crisis times”.     

Parametric Approaches to Productivity Measurement: A Comparison among Alternative Models

This paper deals with modeling total factor productivity (TFP) growth in a flexible manner using panel data. Several competing parametric models are used to explore whether there are any similarities in the estimates of TFP growth and technical change among these models. Using a primal approach, we decompose TFP growth into different components. The models are then used to measure productivity and technical change in the Swedish cement industry. In general, the results are found to be model dependent and often conflicting, although much less so for returns to scale and overall productivity growth.
JEL classification: O 30; C 33     

数字地面模型新进展：TIN2.0、3D表面 塑型线和自由形态建模工具

竖向设计是人类在景观中进行的基本活动。人类对 室外空间的任何干预都涉及对地表形态的设计。在过去的几十 年中，数字设计的发展不仅改变了表现的方法，而且改变了设 计的过程。就地形建模而言，该技术实现了三维可视化和任务 自动化，例如土方计算和自动产生横截面。但在重点考察最新 的建筑信息模型(BIM)如何应用和实施这项技术时，不难发现 地形建模过程并没有充分利用技术带来的潜在优势。实际上， 三维建模工具、基于组件的建模和分析、设计验证，以及协同 设计是可以集成到数字地面模型中的。识别了现有数字建模解 决方案中的主要缺陷并为其进一步发展提供机会，提出了一 项整合性的数字地面模型建模过程，该过程引入了TIN2.0曲 面，对现有的TIN曲面进行了升级，允许在同一曲面中同时存 在规则三角网和不规则三角网，并开发了一套基于三维线和自 由形态设计工具的建模工具，推动风景园林信息模型框架的发 展以满足风景园林师及其他专业人士，如建筑师和土木工程师 进行地形建模的需求。通过案例研究对提出的建模过程进行了 测试和验证。结果表明，生成的数字曲面具有较高精度，可以 具象地表现地形，允许设计过程在三维线或自由形态设计工具 的基础上进行。所有地形建模均在三维数字模型上进行     

Semiconductor industry cycles: Explanatory factors and forecasting

This paper aims to suggest the best forecasting model for the semiconductor market. A wide range of alternative modern econometric modeling approaches have been implemented, and a large variety of criteria and tests have been employed to assess the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy at various horizons. The results suggest that if a VECM can be an interesting source of information, the Bayesian models are superior forecasting tools compared to univariate and unrestricted VAR models. However, for decision makers a spectral method could be a useful tool, which can be easily implemented. In addition, MS-AR models make it possible to obtain valuable forecasts on turning-points in order to adjust the programming of heavy capital and research investments.     

The use of structural modeling for technology assessment

Structural modeling (SM) techniques are a set of geometric, semi-quantitative tools that can assist in organizing a technology assessment (TA), developing a rough overview of it, and analyzing various component problems. In this project about 100 SM techniques were identified and seven were tested in detail: ISM, ELECTRE, SPIN, KSIM, QSIM, IMPACT, and XIMP. Guidelines were developed to help the assessor in the choice and proper use of such tools.     

Nonparametric neural network modeling of hedonic prices in the housing market

This article addresses the contribution to hedonic modeling of a nonparametric approach based on artificial neural network (ANN) regressions. ANNs provide consistent estimates for the hedonic price of each attribute and permit a number of hypotheses on the hedonic price relationship to be tested nonparametrically. In particular, we exploit results by Stinchcombe and White (Econom Theory 14:295?C324, 1998) in order to carry out misspecification testing in linear and semiloglinear hedonic models. The same approach directly applies to testing misspecification of any parametric specification for the hedonic relationship. A nonparametric significance test for the variables in the hedonic model is also proposed. The test extends the approach developed by Racine (J Bus Econ Stat 15(3):369?C378, 1997) in kernel-based nonparametric testing to ANN-based inference. The finite sample performance of the proposed tests is analyzed through Monte Carlo experiments, and simulation-based algorithms for computation of the null distribution of the tests are proposed. Then, the performance of three classes of regression models??linear, semi-log, and ANNs??applied to hedonic price modeling in a Spanish regional housing market is compared. Our results indicate the presence of nonlinear behavior, as predicted by economic theory, with the ANN-based tests detecting statistically significant evidence of misspecification??both in the linear and the semilog specifications??and ANN regressions providing moderate improvement of predictive performance.     

International price transmission in CGE models: How to reconcile econometric evidence and endogenous model response?

The importance of empirically analyzing the transmission of international prices to and their impacts on domestic markets is growing particularly since the 2006–2008 food price hikes. However, the field is dominated by econometric Price Transmission Analysis (PTA) but surprisingly disconnected from analyses based on simulation models such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The missing reconciliation among these tools could be due to PTA often being concerned with high frequency data and short-term adjustment processes, which does not reconcile well with the annual data of CGE analyses; different research teams in econometric time series analysis and CGE modeling with typically little overlap; and the endogeneity of price transmission in CGE models. Due to this endogeneity, the calibration of CGE models to empirically observed price transmission is not straightforward, as an infinite combination of model parameters and specifications allows for reaching a certain level of price transmission. This paper aims at paving the way for the integrated use of PTA and CGE models by analyzing how a given degree of price transmission from the international to the domestic market, which may be determined empirically e.g. based on a vector error correction model, can be met in a single country CGE model. We examine and validate seven hypothetical determinants including structural characteristics of the model, the parameterization of behavioral functions and properties of the sectors concerned. The findings of this paper support controlling the pass-through of prices from the international to the domestic market in CGE models.     

The economics of online dating: A course in economic modeling

The author discusses the development of a unique course, The Economics of Online Dating. The course is an upper-level undergraduate course that combines intensive discussion, peer review, and economic theory to teach modeling skills to undergraduates. The course uses the framework of “online dating,” interpreted broadly, as a point of entry, via Paul Oyer's popular economics book Everything I Ever Needed to Know about Economics I Learned from Online Dating. The author then explores an approach to teaching students how to not just solve models, but to create economic models from abstract ideas. This approach to teaching modeling is supported by Albert Bandura's work on self-efficacy as a bedrock pedagogical principle.     

Evaluating the potentials of technical cooperation among developing countries

The main purpose of this article is to show that “there are optimal partners for technology transfer to be most effective,” and for many countries this may, in fact, mean looking for “technical cooperation among developing countries (TCDC).” In this article a technology transfer model has been presented, in relatively simple mathematical form, which incorporates both the dynamic and the spatial aspects of the innovation diffusion process. The existing models of technological change at a particular location, i.e., technological substitution, are shown to be special cases of the developed time-level model of technology transfer. The model has been applied to evaluate the international transfer potentials of the “computerization” technology. Optimal partners are identified and the prospects for TCDC has been evaluated. Model usefulness and related policy implications have been discussed in detail.     

大数据驱动情景下数字创业商业模式创新关键影响因素——话语分析方法的一项探索性研究

互联网发展已快速步入大数据时代,并引发了企业管理领域的巨大变革。在此背景下,数字创业商业模式创新研究受到各领域学者的高度关注。话语分析是管理学领域一种较为新颖的质性研究方法,采用话语分析法,基于微链区块链等8家案例企业的话语证据,提炼大数据驱动情景下数字商业模式创新关键影响因素。研究发现：数字创业商业模式创新关键影响因素可结构化为数据识别、数据整合、嵌入学习等27个核心范畴,并类属化为大数据驱动情景→数据挖掘能力→数字创业商业模式创新和网络共享资源→企业适应行为→数字创业商业模式创新两条故事线;其次,对数据识别→数据感知、知识联盟→知识渗透等关系路径进行检验,提炼嵌入学习、知识渗透、价值治理和界面跨越4类典型的企业适应性行为,丰富了大数据情景下商业模式创新理论研究,对数字企业商业模式创新实践具有重要指导价值。