汇率决定、国际贸易与劳动力市场

中国经济发展带来许多理论上的挑战.随着人民币的升值,出口未受抑制反而大幅增长;劳动力价格的逐步上升也未引起不少人担心的产业转移.本文分析了1994年汇率决定机制改革以来进出口贸易与汇率变动之间的关系,讨论了劳动力成本上升对于出口企业的影响,以及在汇率不确定性增大的情况下,中国金融市场发展的机遇.认为人民币有升值压力是中国经济发展的最为良好的外部条件之一.     

不完全金融市场、海外资产结构与国际贸易

本文在动态不确定性模型分析框架下,分析了金融自由化和金融深化对一国居民消费、资产选择和福利的影响。研究表明,两国金融市场完全性的差异会导致在金融自由化的经济环境中,金融市场完全性低的国家由于有更多的预防性储蓄而出现贸易盈余,相应金融市场完全性高的国家出现贸易赤字。同时,金融市场发展的差异也深刻影响两国居民资产组合的选择,促使金融市场完全性高的国家"做多股权,做空债权",金融市场完全性低的国家"做空股权,做多债权",并导致资本从金融市场完全性低的国家主要以购买债券的形式流向金融市场完全性高的国家。     

我国银行间外汇市场交易机制模式探讨

本文结合金融市场微观结构的理论,对我国银行间外汇市场交易机制运作特征进行了独特的归纳分析,在对询价制和做市商制比较的基础上,提出做市商制未来会逐渐取代询价制成为主流的交易机制,并结合国际市场发展的经验,预测我国银行间外汇市场交易机制的发展趋势为:引入电子经纪人制度,由电子经纪人向委托给他的做市商提供"汇集"后的指令流信息.     

International Trade and Currency Exchange

On the international scene, away from national legal rules, the use of different currencies is largely due to the operation of the "Invisible Hand". The paper develops a three-country model of the world economy. This links real trade patterns with currency exchange structures in a general equilibrium framework which includes transaction costs on foreign exchange markets. In the presence of strategic complementarities, there are multiple equilibrium structures of currency exchange for a given underlying real trade pattern. The existence conditions of these different equilibria are characterized, using the trade links between countries as the key parameters. Finally, repercussions on world output of the choice of a currency exchange structure are analysed.
"So much of barbarism, however, still remains in the transactions of most civilized nations, that almost all independent countries choose to assert their nationality by having, to their own inconvenience and that of their neighbours, a peculiar currency of their own."
John Stuart Mill, 1848.     

国际经济与贸易针对外汇风险的防范策略探究

经济全球化带动各国深入交流与发展,国家间国际经济与贸易往来频繁。国际经济市场中我国多数涉外企业发展较好,但也面临着巨大的压力,主要由于国际经济与贸易中存在较大外汇风险。那么企业要提早做好外汇风险防范措施,针对风险成因进行分析,在防范策略下加强风险判断力,帮助涉外企业在国际市场中长远发展。本文在分析国际经济与贸易中外汇风险的定义与风险成因,依据风险带来的影响,做出相关防范策略,以供参考。     

Testing for Sunspot in the Foreign Exchange Market

It has been shown that the nonfundamental uncertainty called sunspots matters in many areas of the economy. Noting the fact that nationwide capital movement and the speculative demand for foreign currencies are rapidly increasing, this paper conducts empirical tests on the sunspot exchange rate model. The empirical result shows that the sunspot equilibrium exchange rate deviating from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Interest Rate Parity (IRP) is consistent with the real data. More importantly, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) over-identification test is shown to support the evidence that more general Euler equations are in favor of our sunspot equilibrium exchange rate model. [C52, E44]     

Foreign Exchange Controls and the Parallel Market Premium

This paper studies the relationship between the official and parallel exchange rates, using cointegration, Granger causality, and reduced form methods on data from three Caribbean countries, Jamaica, Guyana, and Trinidad & Tobago, for the period 1985–93. Where the central bank follows a passive policy of infrequent and large adjustments to the official rate, changes in the official rate Granger causes changes in the parallel rate, and larger disparities prevail between the two rates. Foreign exchange controls, expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, and changes of government mostly have a positive effect on the parallel market premium, with foreign exchange controls exerting the strongest impact.     

我国外汇储备与对外贸易的关系

我国高额外汇储备主要由多年贸易顺差积累形成,对外贸易地理方向直接影响着我国外汇储备币种结构。高额外汇储备一方面增强国家的国际清偿能力和购买能力,使国家有充足的资金购买先进的技术设备;另一方面也会削弱出口商品的国际竞争力,加大人民币升值压力,引起贸易摩擦等。优化产品结构,分散贸易地理方向,扶持企业发展等措施有助于减轻两者之间的消极影响。     

Efficiency of the Black Market for Foreign Exchange

The objective of this paper is to examine the determinants of the exchange rate regime within a time series approach, in order to overcome limitations of the cross-section approach. The former approach is based upon the assumption that policy makers would not change the regime until the long term benefits would exceed the cost of the switch. This would imply some inertia in regimes that will be better captured by a time series analysis. The empirical results show that: (i) Chile opted captured by a time series analysis. The empirical results show that: (i) Chile opted for a fixed exchange rate regime as an anchor when domestic inflation was relatively high with respect to world inflation, and (ii) minimizing real consumption variability rather than real output variability was a dominant target for Chilean authorities, with domestic monetary disturbances favoring a more flexible arrangement, while real shocks were absorbed by changes in the balanced of payments supporting a fixed regime. [F31,F32]     

Welfare Effects of Transparency in Foreign Exchange Markets: the Role of Hedging Opportunities

The paper studies the impact of more transparency on the risk‐sharing opportunities in the foreign exchange market and the associated implications on ex ante welfare. Transparency is measured in this model by the informational content of publicly observable signals about exchange rate developments. The authors find that in this model more transparency improves welfare in economies that are poorly endowed with capital and/or where investors are not very risk‐averse, while welfare is reduced in economies with large capital endowments and/or where investors are highly risk‐averse.     

贸易顺差、资本流入与中国外汇储备规模增长

本文通过协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,对影响我国外汇储备规模快速增长的诸因素进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,（1）我国外汇储备规模与年出口额、外国证券投资、外商直接投资、外债还本付息额具有长期的稳定关系。（2）年出口规模与外汇储备规模之间具有单向因果关系,是造成外汇储备快速增长的主要原因。（3）外商直接投资、外国证券投资和外汇储备规模具有正向相关关系,其影响强度较弱;而外债还本付息额与外汇储备呈负向相关关系。（4）1986年～2009年间,贸易顺差对外汇储备规模增长的贡献度约为68%,而资本流入约为32%。本文基于实证分析结果认为,采取贸易项目收支平衡战略以减少外汇储备过度增长是最佳的选择。     

Relating International Trade to the Housing Market

Studies of tariffs have tended to ignore their impact on housing markets. This paper builds a simple dynamic general-equilibrium model to bridge the gap. The model is consistent with empirical findings that housing prices in several small open economies, and the price of nontradeables relative to tradeables, have increased over time. The model also allows closed-form solutions of the elasticity of the economic growth rate, the housing-stock growth rate, and the housing-price growth rate, with respect to the tariff rate. Other testable implications are generated.     

关于我国外汇市场发展的思考

外汇市场的规范运行 ,有利于我国利用市场机制配置外汇资源 ,提高外汇资金的使用效益。文章分析了我国现行的外汇市场无论现在还是在中国金融进一步开放的背景下都有若干的缺陷 ,提出了改革和完善外汇市场的具体建议。     

International Trade and Volume Patterns under Quasilinear Preferences

We formally analyze the pattern and volume of trade by embedding quasilinear preferences in the standard perfectly competitive, two‐factor, two‐good, two‐country trade model. Quasilinear preferences deliver a natural partition of the two goods into a luxury and a necessity, and preserve the validity of the Heckscher–Ohlin and Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek theorems. In addition, the predicted factor content of trade under quasilinear preferences is smaller (larger) than the predicted factor content of trade under homothetic preferences if and only if the luxury good is capital (labor) intensive. This result offers a novel explanation for the “missing‐trade” mystery.     

中国外汇市场集中度研究

本文应用产业组织理论的分析方法研究我国外汇市场集中度问题，我国外汇市场结构的特点是垄断与封闭并存，反映在外汇市场集中度上就是绝对集中度指数（Cn）和赫芬因德指数（HI）明显偏高，造成我国外汇市场集中度较高的主要原因有外汇管制措施，人民币有限兑换，市场准入限制以及历史因素等。文章最后提出了完善外汇市场的对策和思路。     

外国直接投资与我国国际贸易困境

近年来，我国与其他国家特别是美国贸易摩擦日益增多，已影响到我国出口贸易的增长。本文分析表明，外国直接投资在促进我国贸易增长和经济增长的同时，也成为我国国际贸易摩擦产生的一个重要原因。以东亚为主且偏向于劳动密集型的外国投资使得我国成为东亚跨国公司的出口平台，增加了我国与其他国家发生贸易冲突的可能。这种现象的产生既有其国际背景，又有着国内政策取向的原因，因此调整我国的外国直接