对中国宏观经济的预测与分析

中国第一次真正的商业周期应始于1999年,2001年中国经济在复苏中将面临滞胀的阴影.因为复苏中改革与结构调整不足,并存在影响经济波动的若干不确定因素.因此,中国经济的真正出路就是从供给方入手,坚决推进市场取向的改革.     

Identifying socio-economic differences between high and low income metropolitan areas

This is an exploratory effort to describe some distinguishing socio-economic characteristics between high and low income metropolitan areas and to identify those regions with atypical socio-economic profiles.     

Public policy toward low income housing and filtering in housing markets

The article presents a model of a housing market in which dwelling units are constructed for relatively high income families and then gradually become available to lower income groups as they depreciate in quality and price. Assumptions are made concerning values for the parameters of the model, and the model is then solved using numerical methods. Alternative possible policies for increasing the housing consumption of the poor are simulated in the model.     

旧城更新中低收入居民利益的维护

通过对旧城更新中基本矛盾的分析,指出了旧城更新中低收入居民面临的失去家园及谋生环境,失去原有社会经济网络的困境,并从经济、社会、物质环境、政策法规等层面提出了维护旧区低收入居民利益的对策.     

The impact of the low income housing tax credit program on local schools

The low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC) program has developed over two million rental homes for low-income households since 1986. The perception of deterioration in school quality has been a main reason for community opposition to LIHTC projects in middle- and upper-income areas. In this paper, we examine the impact of LIHTC projects on the nearby school performance using data on all LIHTC projects and elementary schools in Texas from the 2003–04 through 2008–09 academic years. We employ the longitudinal structure of the data to control for school fixed effects and estimate the relationship between the opening of nearby LIHTC on campus-level standardized test scores and performance ratings. We address the potential selection biases by controlling for preexisting trends in school performance prior to the study period. We find no robust evidence that the opening of LIHTC units negatively impacts the performance of nearby elementary schools.     

我国宏观形势及政策建议

依据中国人民大学中国宏观经济分析与预测模型,预计2008年GDP增长达到9.6%,2009年增速为8.42%.预计2009年价格将出现持续下滑的局面,但在货币政策适度宽松的作用下,通货紧缩的局面不会出现,全年CPI将为2.3%.     

Stock markets,banks and the sources of economic growth in low and high income countries

This paper studies the effects of stock markets and banks on the sources of economic growth, productivity and capital accumulation, using a large cross country panel that includes high- and low-income countries. Results show that, in low-income countries, banks have a sizable positive effect on capital accumulation. We find that stock markets, however, have not contributed to capital accumulation or productivity growth in these countries. Given the emphasis that has been placed in developing equity markets in developing countries, these findings are somewhat surprising. Conversely, in high-income countries, stock markets are found to have sizable positive effects on both productivity and capital growth, while banks only affect capital accumulation.     

特大型投资项目的区域和宏观经济影响分析

本文结合我国近年特大型投资项目评估的实践，描述了特大型项目对区域经济和宏观经济影响分析的有关基本概念，区分了特大型投资项目区域和宏观经济影响分析与一般项目国民经济评价的异同，构造了特大型项目的评价指标和分析方法体系。     

经济周期波动的国际传导与宏观经济政策

在探讨了国际经济周期波动原因的前提下,阐明了经济周期波动从发达国家到发展中国家的传导机制,分析了国际经济周期波动与中国经济增长的关联性问题。最后指出,当前应当密切关注国际经济周期的变动,积极拓宽宏观政策分析的国际视角,并努力推进结构性改革,加快扩大内需的步伐。     

国民经济核算在宏观经济管理中的作用

宏观经济管理是建立在对宏观经济基本方面考察的基础之上的,如一个国家或一个地区、部门、企业在一定时期拥有多少可以从事生产活动的资本、劳动力、资源等生产要素;怎样利用它们进行经济活动;取得多少成果、形成多少收入;如何进行分配与再分配;收入怎样用于积累和消费(包括通过各种金融中介机构进行的融资活动);投入与产出、供给与需求、各部门各环节之间的比例是否协调;国内外经常收支和资本收支的平衡状况如何等,这些都是国民经济核算的内容.从中可以看出,国民经济核算在宏观经济管理中起着非常重要的作用.     

Impact of the food stamp program on selected food nutrients purchased by low income households

The objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis that the food Stamp Program (FSP) improves the nutritional status of the low income households, particularly, in the southern region of the United States. Empirical results are obtained via application of the Box-Cox transformation technique to sample data developed from the Bureau of Labor Statistics 1972–1973 Consumer Expenditure Diary Survey. The relatively small income elasticities suggest that policies aimed at generating nutritionally adequate diets through income transfers may not be as effective as the FSP in improving the nutritional status of low income households. Analyses of the impacts of other socio-economic variables suggest that some pattern of nutrient purchasing behavior are evident over different stages of household life cycle. Furthermore, race of household and level of educational attainment of the homemaker are found to have significant effects on the purchase of selected nutrients.     

城市低收入社区参与型改造的理念与实践——发展中国家的经验和启示

回顾、总结了城市社区改造理念的变化及其发展历程,结合典型事例介绍并分析了发展中国家低收入社区的参与型社区改造在项目手法、开发方式上的阶段性特点,从社会、经济、政治的多维视角总结了参与型社区改造的经验,并揭示了其对中国社区改造的启示意义.     

通货紧缩仍将是2002年宏观经济主要特征

从近四年宏观经济运行情况看，我国当前的供大于求的矛盾不仅无法通过市场机制自然恢复平衡，而且很难通过政府增加公共支出，包括公共消费和公共投资来消除，走出通货紧缩困境的根本途径还是体制改革。     

A multi-agent model of a low income economy: simulating the distributional effects of natural disasters

This paper develops an agent-based model of a stylized low income region in order to study the impact of natural disasters on population displacement, income, prices, and consumption with a focus on distributions and coping strategies of low income groups. Key features of the model include the integration of decentralized markets into a full economy in a spatially explicit way and the analysis of short-run adjustment processes. The model is calibrated to a low income region of rural agrarian Pakistan that faced severe floods in 2010. Dynamic adaptation by agents in response to falling income includes migrating and running down savings. Despite these consumption smoothing strategies, some low income groups are vulnerable to starvation. The paper showcases two hypothetical policy scenarios, a cash and a food transfer program, and tracks their effects on the welfare of low income groups in the economy.     

我国宏观经济外部失衡及财政税收应对之策

一、宏观经济外部失衡表现:国际收支连年"双顺差" 改革开放以来,特别是加入世贸组织后,我国对外经济交往日趋频繁,国际贸易额稳步增长.近年来,在净出口乘数效应的作用下,我国就业规模成倍扩大,国民收入快速增长,出口已成为国民经济持续、快速增长的巨大引擎.     

2001年宏观经济发展的因素分析与预测

我国经济增长连续七年减速后,2000年终于出现了回升,从总体上看,国民经济呈现出良好发展势头：经济增长加快,推动经济增长的三大需求上升,通货紧缩压力减缓,微观经济景气出现回升。     

Relationship impact and African American males' responses to health care practitioner recommendations

This phenomenological research study was conducted to explore and identify reasons African American men comply or do not comply with the medical recommendations of their health care practitioner. The research sample was 20 African American men living in Baltimore City, Maryland, who visited their health care practitioner within the past year. Open‐ended, objectively phrased interview questions were used for this study, which allowed participants to respond with their own words to describe their decision making regarding their health care practitioner's advice. Invariant themes were revealed by data mining. Three clusters of themes emerged: relationship, apprehension, and trust. The research revealed participants viewed the doctor‐patient relationship as critical in establishing trust and respect and in building rapport. Participants felt these elements would serve to promote patient compliance to their health care practitioner's recommendations.     

Does colonisation explain the low level of growth in African financial markets?

This study examines the effect of colonisation on the growth of financial markets in Africa using a sample of 30 countries for settler mortality and 35 countries for settler sedentarisation over the 1996–2017 period. Using a robust ordinary least squares regression with fixed effects, we find that settler mortality exerts a negative impact on the evolution of financial markets in former African colonies, while the opposite effect is obtained for the settler sedentarisation rate. These results remain robust to the several tests performed. Our study provides new evidence and perspectives to the long-standing debate regarding the relationship between history and finance. As a key recommendation, we propose that policymakers should draw more inspiration from the past to make better policy decisions in terms of economic, institutional, sociocultural, and legal governance to enhance the development of their financial markets.     

电力产业链与宏观经济波动均衡关系研究

本文利用电力产业链20种产品增长率数据进行二项分布检验,建立与GDP增长率序列的差分VAR模型,实施协整检验。结果证实20种产品的波动具有一定系统性,产业链与宏观经济波动存在逆向长期均衡,它们分别对均衡偏离进行同进同退的短期调整。这反映了中国经济的传统增长方式面临现实约束——增长方式低效率本身,产业链大起大落源于均衡关系的波动和调整方式。目前,产业链高速增长趋势的转折在即。     

提高低收入者收入 逐步缩小收入差距

提高低收入者收入水平,逐步缩小收入分配差距,是统筹社会与经济协调发展的重要内容.