The death of the urban vision?

Debate on the future city has changed greatly in the last 20 years. From visions of a distant, orderly and mobile Utopia, peopled with enlightened ‘modern man’, concerns have become more sporadic and less coherent, determined by economic recession and the need to preserve existing urban social fabric rather than with the need to plan holistically for the city of the future. However, there should be no return to the earlier modernist visions, which lacked sufficient social understanding (as illustrated by failed experiments with highrise flats in the UK). Planning for the city of the future must be based on realistic societal needs.     

Have cities a future?

Prospects for the older declining industrial cities may take some reassurances from the example of the US Sunbelt, FR Germany and many third world cities. The survival of the city would seem to rely on not only a shift to information-processing services but also increasing the ease with which activities, people and ideas are able to move around the urban area. However in the present state of flux and seemingly contradictory indications, prophecy should be approached cautiously.     

我国中小城市经济结构战略性调整的新思路

经济结构调整是我国“十五”期间经济工作的一条主线。中小城市是我国整个城市化体系的基础，同时也是我国小农经济向现代工业经济发展的桥梁和纽带，中小城市要在现代社会和经济的发展大潮中发挥并保持其基础地位，就必须伴随宏观经济结构的新趋势进行相应的调整，以形成先进的生产力，推进跨越式发展。     

Decentralization,Economic Development,and Growth in Turkish Provinces

There have been important developments in the decentralization of the government structure in Turkey since the early 1980s. This paper examines economic development and growth in Turkish provinces. It first discusses local government reforms throughout the history of Turkey with the focus on recent reform efforts. It then empirically analyzes the effects of recent decentralization reforms in Turkish provinces using cross-sectional and panel data approaches as well as spatial econometrics. The panel data set consists of sixty-seven provinces from 1976 to 2001. Using the number of local governments per capita and number of local governments per square kilometer of land to indicate decentralization, the analysis examines whether variations in local decentralization across these provinces and across time have significantly affected economic development and growth in those provinces. The findings suggest a weak negative economic effect of decentralization through a number of municipalities per capita. However, the findings do not show any significant effect from the creation of new provinces by separation from the existing ones.     

三四线城市房价为何坐上“过山车”——基于棚户区改造与货币化安置政策的视角

检验棚户区改造与货币化安置政策导致三四线城市房地产价格出现波动的特征事实,构建包含棚户区家庭、实体生产企业、房地产企业、实施棚户区改造与货币化安置政策的政府的DSGE模型,研究棚户区改造与不同程度的货币化安置政策对三四线城市的房地产价格和经济发展的影响机理,并比较三种调控政策(提高房贷利率、增加房地产供给、降低货币化安置比例)的调控效果。结果显示：棚户区改造过程中的货币化安置政策对三四线城市的房价上涨起到了较为明显的放大作用,且对居民消费和实体经济产生了负面影响。鉴于此,建议降低货币化安置比例和棚户区居民的购房杠杆,约束三四线城市过度上涨的房价,引导三四线城市的房地产市场健康发展。     

吉林省九市州综合经济实力比较研究

吉林省九个市州经济发展亟待解决的矛盾和问题是:经济总量不大,结构不优,区域经济发展不平衡;经济发展活力不足;自主创新能力不强,科技成果转化不快;节能降耗、环境保护问题依然存在。提高各地区经济发展实力,在认清本地区的综合经济实力、发展潜力和发展环境的前提下,各地应重点抓好以下几方面工作:把提升工业水平作为经济发展的头等大事来抓;把加大投资力度、扩大招商引资作为今后一段时间经济工作的主线;把大力发展旅游产业作为带动本地第三产业发展的突破口;不断增强中心城市产业辐射功能,促进地区经济的整体发展。     

内蒙古能源消耗与二氧化碳排放分析

进入十五以来,随着内蒙古工业化、城镇化的快速推进,在以石化(尤其是煤炭)为主导的能源结构前提下,带动了我区能源消耗与二氧化碳排放的快速增加,从而对内蒙古实现可持续发展带来了严峻挑战。因此,在当前自治区提出转变发展方式和实现国家规定的节能减排硬性目标约束下,分析内蒙古节能减排前景及潜力,在此前提下寻求内蒙古实现节能减排的对策与方法对于我区实现资源节约型、环境友好型社会意义重大。基于此,本文对内蒙古能源消耗现状、未来形势进行了对比分析,在此基础上,按照自治区"十二五"期间的预期实现目标,对我区能耗和排放进行了情景模拟与分析,结果表明,在设定合理情景模式下,内蒙古节能减排仍有很大提升潜力,到"十二五"末是可以实现国家既定的节能减排约束目标的。     

Probability Forecasts of Macroaggregates in the Turkish Economy

We provide probability forecasts of key Turkish macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output growth. The probability forecasts are derived from a core vector error correction model of the Turkish economy and its several variants. We use model and window averaging to address uncertainties arising from estimated models and possible structural breaks. The performances of the different models and their combinations are evaluated using relevant forecast accuracy tests in different pseudo out-of-sample settings. The results indicate that successful directional forecasts can be obtained for output growth and inflation. Averaging over both the models and the estimation windows improves the level of accuracy of the forecasts.     

从城乡分立到城乡统筹:中国养老保险制度结构体系发展研究

养老保险制度结构体系的分析可以运用"环境—制度"框架。二元结构、孝文化的制度环境使得中国养老保险制度逐渐出现城乡分立。人口流动、社会阶层变化、执政理念发展和生育文化变化的制度环境促使中国开始探索养老保险制度城乡统筹。制度环境的变化使得养老保险制度结构体系由城乡分立走向城乡统筹,而养老保险制度城乡统筹的重点在于完善农村养老保险制度。     

On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation

Recent studies in the empirical finance literature have reportedevidence of two types of asymmetries in the joint distributionof stock returns. The first is skewness in the distributionof individual stock returns. The second is an asymmetry in thedependence between stocks: stock returns appear to be more highlycorrelated during market downturns than during market upturns.In this article we examine the economic and statistical significanceof these asymmetries for asset allocation decisions in an out-of-samplesetting. We consider the problem of a constant relative riskaversion (CRRA) investor allocating wealth between the risk-freeasset, a small-cap portfolio, and a large-cap portfolio. Weuse models that can capture time-varying moments up to the fourthorder, and we use copula theory to construct models of the time-varyingdependence structure that allow for different dependence duringbear markets than bull markets. The importance of these twoasymmetries for asset allocation is assessed by comparing theperformance of a portfolio based on a normal distribution modelwith a portfolio based on a more flexible distribution model.For investors with no short-sales constraints, we find thatknowledge of higher moments and asymmetric dependence leadsto gains that are economically significant and statisticallysignificant in some cases. For short sales-constrained investorsthe gains are limited.     

Quarter-End Effects in Banks: Preferred Habitat or Window Dressing?

Allen and Saunders [Allen, A., and A. Saunders. “Bank Window Dressing: Theory and Evidence.” Journal of Banking and Finance 16 (1992), 583–623.] document abnormal behavior of bank assets and liabilities at the turn-of-the-quarter and attribute it to window dressing by banks. Using different methods we re-visit bank turn-of-the-quarter balance sheet activity. We also examine quarter-end changes in the effective fed funds rates and fed funds rate standard deviations. We confirm the presence of turn-of-the-quarter activity on bank balance sheets and in the fed funds market. However, we conclude that the turn-of-the-quarter effects are more consistent with customer preferred habitats than window dressing.     

区域创新政策对微观主体创新行为的影响 ——基于创新型城市建设的研究

以是否获批创新型城市建设试点单位为基本条件,采用多期双重差分法和三重差分法进行“准自然实验”,研究创新型城市建设对企业创新的促进作用及其作用机理。结果发现：创新型城市作为创新型国家建设的一个重要组成部分,能积极推动辖区内的企业创新活动;并且其主要通过增强企业集聚度、提高金融中介机构服务强度与扩大对外开放引进外商投资等途径对企业创新活动起到激励与保障作用。非试点城市应该借鉴这些先行经验,并结合自身的经济发展状况,推出系列政策以促进企业创新。     

内蒙古地区城乡经济互动发展思考

本文从内蒙古地区的实际情况出发,在对内蒙古城乡经济发展状况进行了分析和总结的基础上,对形成内蒙古地区城乡发展差距的原因进行了分析,重点从劳动力政策、财政政策、农牧业政策、区域协调政策和人才培养政策等方面,探讨了如何改善内蒙古地区城乡关系、实现城乡互动发展的问题。     

缩小城乡收入差距策略

国家统计局公布的2012年国民经济和社会发展统计公报显示,全年城镇居民人均可支配收入24565元,全年农村居民人均纯收入7917元,城乡居民收入比已达3.1：1.缩小城乡收入差异已是刻不容缓.笔者认为,在出台支农惠农政策的同时,也应该加大对农业的资金投入,为农民开拓增收渠道,同时改革城乡分割的户籍制度,提高农民的国民待遇,以增强对农业整体的支持.     

Forecasting for rulers

The trend towards presidential-style rule in contemporary democratic governments continues. Although rulers' positions are increasing in power and importance, the infrastructure and policy-making resources upon which they rely to govern have remained remarkably inadequate. The author argues that the contribution made by forecasting has been scant and often predicated upon the wrong aims. Forecasters and forecasting need a new approach.