Reclaiming the future : Futures studies in Africa

This article considers the status of futures studies and research in Africa. Compared to the position two decades ago, African planning services today represent a real achievement, and can act as the basis for advanced public policy analysis. Futures studies in Africa can act to stimulate and extend the national planning function, and also provide a unified approach at the regional and continental levels. Futures studies can never be value-free—Africans embarking on futures studies must first rediscover their past and assert their present before they are able to ‘reclaim their future’.     

Futures and government: Combating the new philistinism

The downgrading of long-term forecasting and planning in the governments of a number of Western countries is traced to the rise of ‘the new philistinism’—blunt myopia and political opportunism—typified by the stance of the Thatcher and Reagan administrations. After a review of the fate of the proposals for an independent European futures unit deriving from the Europe Plus Thirty project, this article calls for another attempt to set up effective Western futures institutions. Not to forecast and not to plan is a use—or rather, a misuse—of government power.     

The sociologist as social architect: A new task for macro-sociology?

The theme of voluntarism and determinism is revisited, here in the context of forecasting for futurists. Although fraught with danger the use of scenarios is vital in a world of rapid change, in which people are more than ever aware of the choices open to them and the ways they are able to determine their own future. The author proposes that a merger between the approaches of the sociologist and the futurist could aid our understanding of social futures. The outcome is a ‘design sociology’ based on six key concepts.     

Lessons from global modelling and modellers

Two key lessons arising from ten years of global modelling are, first, that there are indeed lessons to be learned—eg ‘business as usual’ is not a viable world future, but the will to change economic, political and social structures could indeed create a decent and sustainable standard of living for all; second, many of the lessons are fairly obvious, but there is a great reluctance, even amongst global modellers, to take them into account—eg the real-world importance of politics is rarely represented in models, or the need to take great care not to mislead when publicizing results.     

A decade of global modelling

One result of ten years of global modelling is an inspiring, inspired, and concerned community of modellers. Another is that, despite their many differences (which are briefly discussed), common messages emerge from the various models. This paper also presents some guidelines for model users.     

The argument for more future-oriented planning

Planning, and practically all forms of decisionmaking, are concerned with the future. The future, unless we adopt deterministic philosophies, is uncertain and therefore difficult to plan for. Through the processes of change it is likely to be different from the past; existing and past knowledge and experience are only a partial guide to decisionmaking. The inclusion of a future dimension based on careful thought about possible future development offers a new tool to the decisionmaker that should not be overlooked.     

The future practice of medicine: The challenge of global factors

Three global issues are considered of paramount importance in determining what should be the future of medicine: population growth (with the concomitant issues of ageing, unemployment, and food shortages); energy supplies; and nuclear weapons. Yet the future practice of medicine may lie through adopting a community-oriented approach, as against adopting more high-technology methods.     

Colour the future green?: The uncertain significance of global green politics

A major value shift in industrialized countries in the same direction as the core values of the Greens movements suggests that there is a cultural phenomenon involving far more people than the overt political manifestation of it. This article links such a value shift with something more fundamental, namely a movement away from confident scientific positivism towards some kind of ill-defined transcendentalism. Related cultural and social movements in the industrialized countries and global attitudes in the developing world are examined. It appears that even if the Greens movements weaken or disappear in their present form, they are political manifestations of a broader cultural thrust that seems unlikely to diminish.     

The 1984 global system: Intelligent systems,development stability and international security

In presenting the social intelligence approach to the issue of international security and stability (ISS), the article first examines cautionary models and signals about it. The method is to scan for and process signals in the form of language about security, stability, development and intelligence from a variety of sources to derive perceptions and propositions about the general random trends among these phenomena in 1984. The end result is the perception of the evolution of intelligent social systems, of humanity's learning capability, as part of the 1984 global cultural development crisis. Finally the effect of the interaction of intelligent social systems on their security and stability, including global international security and dynamic stability, is examined.     

Development,distribution and the future

The distribution of world output between countries, and between social groups within countries, is central to long-term development prospects. Unequal shares mean unequal influence over the future direction of world affairs. The level and structure of demand are conditioned by the distribution of financial resources; while the power to influence the course of development is itself tied to the resources that can be marshalled in support of one's objectives. Two forecasting techniques, scenario construction and global modelling, are used to assess these relationships and explore the consequences of one possible ‘future history’ in which distribution worldwide does eventually begin to improve. Striking limitations to most development strategies are identified; without a wide-ranging set of changes, the prospects for improved distribution—and relief of poverty—are bleak.     

Development of the informal economy: A strategy for resolving the crisis of the welfare state

This article is about the factors and conditions which would influence an expansion of the informal sector (jobs which at present are not registered or taxed and which are done on a voluntary or self-help basis). The need and the opportunity for a stronger informal sector are assessed and the social forces which could support such a strategy are identified. There is a danger of a situation arising where the dominant economic system would use the informal sector for its own stabilization; this reflects the limitations of such independent activities as a model for solving our problems.     

Futures research and the IPCC assessment study on the effects of climate change

Mainly based on a survey of the occurrence of futures research-related references in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, I have investigated the contribution of futures research to the IPCC assessments of the effects of climate change. The assumption I have made here is that, if futures research has made a contribution to the IPCC assessment work, it should also be reflected in the references quoted or cited. I have also briefly commented on the activities by the futurists themselves regarding the future challenge of climate change. As a complement to the contribution survey, I ask and discuss to what degree futures research could and should be participating in a study like that of the IPCC. The survey of the futures research contributions showed that, up to now, futures research has been only modestly represented in the IPCC climate change effect assessment studies. The contribution both could and should have been more extensive than it has been up to the present, a view to which I return in the final discussion.     

Futures studies and the policy sciences

Part of the current evaluation of the work of the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies focuses on the practicality and legitimacy of futures studies in relation to the policy sciences. Two crucial issues are focused on, first the justification and relevance of futures studies methodological approaches and their rigorous application to areas of public policy importance and second, the measures by which futures studies can be evaluated in the light of different time frames. Although there are differences between the policy sciences and futures studies approaches which require further analysis, there nevertheless is a symbiotic relationship between the two. The legitimacy of futures studies as a relevant public policy exercise should not be at issue.     

股指期货所得课税规则的构建

股指期货交易是以股票价格指数为基础资产的标准化期货合约。交易中双方当事人取得的收益和支付的费用将改变交易双方当事人的消费能力和投资水平,从而产生相应的税收后果,应当认定为应税所得。股指期货交易应当是以风险管理权为标的的买卖合约,其收益应当认定为财产转让所得。但由于当前财产转让所得的概念尚不能涵盖风险管理权这一新型财产性权利的转让收益,应有必要构建新的课税规则以确定不同交易目的的股指期货交易的纳税义务及其课税时点等问题。     

Food scenarios 2025: Drivers of change between global and regional

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society’). A less likely scenario is called ‘The reappearence of the sea − The aquarial society’. The purpose of the scenario writing has been to provide strategic tools for societal actors who to create economic growth and jobs, particularly regional governments and firms. Suggestions concerning regional industrial policy and firm actions are included in the article.     

Work and nonwork : Europe in the 1980s and beyond

Through an understanding of major trends in employment, unemployment and informal work and in patterns of life, possible alternative futures in work and nonwork may be identified. Communications and information technologies (IT) may themselves transform the recent transformations in work and nonwork, and already disadvantaged groups may further suffer unless fully involved in the policy processes relating to IT and its products.     

Modellers and politicians

The value of global modelling has been severely restricted by poor appreciation of the constraints under which governments and politicians operate. Equally, the value of governments and politicians has been severely restricted by largely ignoring the very real but less immediate problems tackled by modellers. Modellers should try to influence the political agenda through direct, two-way interaction with politicians, and through addressing the electorate.     

Institute for the future's study of the UK, 1978–1995

The method used expert opinions (collected through interviews), scenario generation, and a simple econometric model. Some methodological innovations are reported; eg aids to assist experts in thinking ahead, and in how scenarios are generated and aggregated.