Africa in the 1990s and beyond: Alternative prescriptions and projections

This article examines the origins, dimensions and implications of Africa's crisis. It draws attention to the impact of historical experiences, the distortions and disarticulations of that experience, and to the coalitions, contradictions, crises and conflicts inherited at independence. It looks at postcolonial alignment and realignment of social and political forces, the crisis of accumulation and power, and the implications of the region's marginal location and role in the global division of labour and power. Calling for a need to transcend the manifestations of the African predicament, the article looks at regional and international responses to the crisis. It concludes by prescribing the need for a fundamental political restructuring, the empowerment of the people and their communities and organizations, a socially sensitive structural adjustment programme, and the recomposition of the content and context of politics and social relations.     

基于文献计量的企业风险管理研究现状分析

文献信息作为科研工作者成果,反映科研工作者对某一领域的认知和规律性的探索总结,并用于指导实践.通过现存的文献信息特征可以把握国内对企业风险管理的研究现状及存在问题.文献计量是应用数学和统计学的方法,将文献信息的特征转变为数量值,定量的研究文献的分布结构,变化规律和数量关系,探讨学科的发展方向及研究热点追踪.通过应用文献计量分析方法,针对搜索的国内企业风险管理文献库,通过文献增长数量趋势,关键词分析,研究机构及作者分布情况,被引频次以及文献增长规律曲线拟合等多角度定量分析,发现国内对企业风险管理研究的热点,难点,便于科研人员和企业管理者研究和学习.     

货币政策和宏观审慎政策的关联及启示——基于英格兰银行的经验

时至今日,宏观审慎政策在内涵、工具和框架等方面快速发展,不仅政策目标更加清晰,工具类型更加丰富,相关理论基础也在不断完善。作为危机后形成的新政策框架,宏观审慎政策在工具有效性、作用机制、政策框架设计及与货币政策的关系方面都还有待深入研究。特别是在制度框架中,如何考虑宏观审慎政策与货币政策的关联,合理设计政策决策框架均已成为关键。对中国而言,系统风险识别、监测与分析更加复杂、困难,需要对宏观审慎政策开展更加精细、深入研究,尤其应吸收借鉴国际经验,建立、完善适合中国的宏观审慎政策框架。基于此,本文首先对宏观审慎政策的理论基础、政策目标及工具等进行系统综述,而后从两类政策关联中涉及的三个重要问题出发,着重分析宏观审慎政策与货币政策之间关系,并分别从组织架构设计、货币政策框架改革、金融政策框架设计等方面,系统介绍了英格兰银行在货币政策和宏观审慎政策框架改革的经验,重点阐述英格兰银行如何实现理论发展与制度设计的较好融合。最后,给出我国宏观审慎政策发展的若干启示和政策建议。     

新疆经济增长区域差异及空间格局演变分析

运用变异系数、基尼系数、泰尔指数、区域分离系数及空间坐标中心法,以GDP和人口数作为衡量新疆区域差异的指标,并从时间和空间两个维度刻画了新疆县域差异的演变规律和特征。研究表明：新疆总体差异变动以2006年为拐点,总体有扩大的趋势;第二产业产值对总体差异的影响程度最大,但影响度有下降的发展势头,而第一产业影响度有所上升,第三产业影响度持续下降,同时产业的地理集聚效应大于结构效应;天山北坡经济带与天山南坡产业带的经济发展水平决定了新疆经济中心向这两个增长轴带偏移,而人口中心与经济中心分离现象趋势加剧;三大地区内差异特别是北疆内各县域的发展差异是目前新疆区域差异扩大的首要原因,同时南疆内部和三大地区间差异对总体贡献率有上升的势头,北疆内部差异有下降态势,区域分离系数也以2006年为拐点呈“U”型结构。最后提出不断提高北疆地区沿边高寒地带县域的发展是新疆在今后发展的主要着力点,不断促进南疆增长轴带发育以辐射周边是新疆利用后发优势发展本区经济的重要发力点。     

中国上市公司财务指数编制:意义、思路与实现路径

本文在简要介绍中国上市公司财务指数研究的基本背景和研究过程的基础上,系统分析了上市公司财务指数编制的理论与现实意义、指数性质界定及其构成,以及指数编制的基本思路和关键问题。我们认为,编制中国上市公司财务指数是对会计信息和财务分析的拓展,与传统会计和财务信息相比,财务指数的信息更具综合性、动态性、系统性,是对传统会计与财务分析理论的拓展与升华;科学合理的指标选取、指标赋权和指数生成方法是编制财务指数的关键;公开、可重复收集的数据基础和恰当合适的编制与发布主体也是财务指数研究和编制中的两个重要问题。     

“一带一路”倡议与公司债信用利差

本文以中国“一带一路”倡议的出台作为准自然实验,采用双重差分法考察国家倡议对微观企业债券信用利差的影响。研究发现:(1)相对于非支持企业,“一带一路”倡议实施能够显著降低支持企业的公司债二级市场信用利差,该结论在一系列稳健性检验之后仍然成立。(2)通过考察“一带一路”倡议的债券市场反应,我们发现相比于非支持企业,支持企业在倡议提出后有显著更高的债券累计超额回报率。(3)进一步检验后发现,“一带一路”倡议对公司债二级市场信用利差的降低作用主要通过资源效应和信息效应来实现。并且,政策影响范围主要集中在重点对接行业以及重点对接省份的企业。(4)“一带一路”倡议还对公司债一级市场的发行表现产生影响。具体表现为:在倡议实施之后,受倡议支持企业发行的公司债,其一级市场发行利差下降幅度更大,且包含的担保条款以及限制性契约条款显著更少。本研究探讨了“一带一路”倡议对公司债券市场的政策效应,对未来推进“一带一路”建设,提高资金融通效率具有参考意义。     

The Association Between Market and Exchange Rate Risks and Accounting Variables: A GARCH Model of the Japanese Banking Institutions

This study has two purposes. First, it estimates the market, interest rate, and exchange rate sensitivities (betas) of the Japanese banking institutions. Second, it investigates the relationship between the market-based measures of risk and accounting-based financial ratios. We extend the literature in three important ways. First, we employ a multi-factor GARCH model to estimate the betas. This framework incorporates non-linearities in the bank stock return modeling and allows for time-varying risk premia. Second, we investigate the determinants of market and exchange rate risk in terms of bank financial ratios. To this end, we regress the beta measures derived from the GARCH model against the corporate decision variables to determine the direction and the magnitude of the impact of the latter on the market and exchange rate risk exposures. Third, by using data on the Japanese banking institutions, we provide a comparison of the bank interest rate and exchange rate sensitivities and the strength of the links between the risk measure and the corporate decision variables between the U.S. and the Japanese banking institutions. This comparison sheds light on the robustness of the results concerning interest rate and exchange rate risk, and their determinants, across the two countries. Several interesting results are obtained. First, empirical results indicate that interest rate is only occasionally significant while market and exchange rate variables are significant for all the banks in the sample. Second, market and exchange rate risk measures do impound information in the financial ratios with the explanatory power of the market beta model being higher than that of the exchange rate beta model. Third, the association of the market-based risk measures and the financial ratios is weaker for the Japanese banks than those found for their U.S. counterparts in the existing literature.JEL Classification: G21, F37     

中国金融周期与横向关联:时空双维度相结合视角

宏观审慎政策关注各金融子市场在时间维度上的金融周期和空间维度上的横向关联。本文结合时间维度与空间维度视角,使用股票市场、货币市场、房地产市场以及信贷市场的数据,测算2001—2019年中国金融周期和横向关联的波动特征、作用关系与频域叠加机理。研究结果表明:时间维度金融周期与空间维度横向关联的波动趋势具有一致性。我国金融周期长度约为10.33年,横向关联波动周期的长度约为10.58年。从作用关系上看,首先,我国房地产周期达到波峰后,会对股票市场和信贷市场产生较强的溢出效应。随后,股市周期达到波峰后,会向房地产市场和信贷市场产生较强的溢出效应。最后,我国信贷市场接受股票市场和房地产市场溢出后,信贷周期会逐渐达到波峰。从频域叠加机理的角度看,我国金融子市场间横向关联的波动主要由中低频波段驱动,中低频波段横向关联的持续期在2个月以上。     

行为视角下的疫情分析:成因、影响与对策综述

本文从流行性传染病特征和医学传染病模型出发,对影响疫情的非理性因素、疫情的直接与间接结果进行文献综述,分析极端事件中的反应不足与过度反应。在成因上,本文梳理了不完全信息贝叶斯学习和显著性理论等决策行为假说,来理解人们行为背后的信息处理机制和情感作用渠道。在结果上,疫情及有关政策对经济金融活动的直接影响尚缺准确评估,恐慌情绪与羊群行为、社会信任危机、风险态度转变及异质性信念等疫情间接结果也有待深入研究。最后,本文基于已有文献和疫情行为分析,对未来学术研究及政策管理提供思路和建议。     

国内外黄金市场价格间的联动关系稳定吗?——基于外部冲击视角的分析

在全球金融市场不断开放和融合的大背景下,黄金市场不但与外部市场频繁互动,其系统内部的联动关系也变得极为多元和复杂,黄金市场间的价格联动反映了信息和风险在不同市场间的传递过程。黄金价格通常会受到外部因素干扰而产生波动,但市场间的联动关系是否会因此而改变是值得重点关注的问题,黄金市场功能的有效性及稳固的市场关系是投资者利用全球黄金市场进行对冲和避险的先决条件,同时也关系到整个金融市场的稳定性。本文将研究重点聚焦于黄金市场内部,在研究中外各主要黄金市场间动态相关性和波动溢出效应的同时引入外部冲击以检验不同因素对黄金期货、现货市场间联动关系的影响从而探讨国内外黄金市场间价格联动的稳定性问题。结果表明:中国与全球主要黄金期货、现货市场间整体上保持了正相关关系,同时与各主要黄金市场间均存在显著的波动溢出效应。在一般市场条件下,外部冲击并没有显著改变中国与全球主要黄金期货、现货市场间的联动关系,表明黄金市场内部的价格联动具有较强的稳定性。     

河北省城乡社会救助公共服务均等化研究

本文在有效性、相关性、独立性、可比性原则的指导下,以机会均等、过程均等、结果均为评价维度,构建了河北省城乡社会救助公共服务均等化评价指标体系,合成了社会救助公共服务综合发展指数。本文使用泰尔指数对河北省城市内部、农村内部及城乡间均等化的水平进行了定量分析,发现河北省城市内部、农村内部均等化泰尔指数呈现下降趋势,但城市内部的社会救助公共服务均等化进程较快,农村内部均等化程度低于城镇内部,农村内部下降幅度相对较小。城乡间泰尔指数较为稳定,但城乡间差异贡献率呈现上升趋势,自2011年开始,城乡间差异成为河北省整体泰尔指数差异最主要来源。     

The State, university, and the construction of civil society in the Middle East

Education in the Middle East is a site of ongoing conflicts between the state and non-state forces. The state, in most countries of the region, has owned and run the educational system, and used it primarily as a means of state-building and nation-building. Non-state actors have generally been excluded from the creation of higher educational institutions; and when such initiatives are allowed, the institutions are politically and academically controlled by the state. The universities have, however, led a very complex life. They have been hotbeds of struggle for democracy, independence and socialism. Since these conflicts are continuing, the universities, the students and faculty, will be actively involved in changing the status quo. A condition for the rise of civil society in the region is the civilising of the state, and the universities will pose a serious challenge to the status quo. The future trend, as far as the students are concerned, is to a large extent a struggle for democratisation of social and political life in each country, and the autonomy of the university from the power of the state and the market.     

统筹城乡居民基本养老保险制度研究——以河南省郑州市为例

构建城乡一体化的基本养老保险制度是我国统筹城乡居民社会养老保险体系的关键步骤。郑州市作为全国建立城乡一体化养老保险制度的少数地市之一,其在基本养老保险制度方面城乡一体化的积极探索和创新在全国具有一定的示范性、前瞻性、可行性和推广价值。本文通过对郑州市城乡居民基本养老保险的发展历程、制度特征、实践情况的系统分析,总结出其对我国构建城乡一体化基本养老保险制度的启示,以期为政府构建统筹城乡居民的社会养老保险体系提供理论参考。     

Sustainability,institutionalization and the duality of structure: Contradiction and unintended consequences in the political context of an Australian water business

This paper presents the results of a longitudinal case study of an Australian public sector water business in order to examine how, and to what extent, did the institutionalization and deinstitutionalization of internal sustainable and environmental management routines, practices and procedures occur over the period 2001 to the start of 2011. It adopts the Dillard et al. framework of institutionalization which incorporates institutional theory, Weber's axes of tension and structuration theory. In 2001, the criteria for costing and financial reporting practices and the criteria for environmental regulation and management practices were competing at the economic and political economic level, the organizational field level and the organizational level. An unintended consequence of this was no accounting for environmental costs. Environmental management criteria and practices were characterized by compliance with EPA regulatory requirements whilst financial management and costing criteria and practices were characterized by New Public Management criteria. Subsequent to 2001, an unintended consequence of the establishment of separate legislative and regulatory bodies has been the institutionalization of competing legitimating criteria with regard to water conservation, externalities, environmental regulation and financial reporting and costing. Within this context, the organizational field and the organizational level of the individual water business has been characterized by the development of new organizational practices and routines with regard to water conservation as well as unintended consequences and decoupling. At all three levels, the ontological security of agents has been evident in the development of new criteria and practices for sustainable development, whilst the routine procedures of the respective management systems were a source of ontological security to the relevant agents.     

Linkages between organizational goals,strategies, and the budget process

This case is ideally suited to integrate organizational goals and strategies with budgeting, feedback, and variance analysis. It demonstrates the interplay between the budget process and organizational goals and strategies. The case is also useful in integrating accounting concepts with concepts which students have studied in management or organizational behavior courses. It suggests that the way that managers respond to variances is affected by the environment in which the firm operates and the product(s) manufactured by the firm. This case is based upon an actual situation in which a firm experienced rapid growth through acquisition. Integration of the budget process with organizational goals and strategies enhances the students' interest and their understanding of the role of budgets in the planning and control process. The case demonstrates that budgets are part of a “big picture,” and can be traced and related to managerial goals and strategies. Further, the case allows students to develop an understanding and appreciation of variance analysis. The case has been used successfully with undergraduate cost accounting students and with participants in a 2-week executive-education program. The students find the case interesting and are eager to participate in the discussion.     

财经类院校经济管理专业实验教学模式研究

近年来,我国的经济管理类专业在实验室建设,实验教学方法、手段和教学规律研究和探索方面,取得了很多有目共睹的成果,成为近年来我国财经类教育教学改革的亮点.但是也要看到,目前的经济管理类专业实验教学仍然属于起步阶段,特别是近几年的快速发展,各财经类高校对经济管理类实验的内涵产生了不同的理解,在实验教学的目的、方法、手段和体系等方面也出现了不同程度的偏差.本文就是针对这些问题,来研究探索适合当前我国财经类院校的经济管理类实验教学的模式.     

Recovery Process Model

Recently, because of Basel II and the subprime mortgage crisis, the quantification of the recovery size and the recovery rate for the debt of a defaulted company is a serious problem for financial institutions and their supervisors, but there has been no study of structure of the recovery process which is the relationship between time and the cumulative recovery size. Existent recovery models do not regard the recovery progress before the time of achievement of recovery. We directly model recovery process for the debt of a single defaulted company. We model the recovery process by a homogeneous compound Poisson process and extend our model to an inhomogeneous compound Poisson process. The interest rate is explicitly used in our model. By our model, the relationship between the cumulative recovery, the increment of recovery, the initial debt amount, the last recovery possible time and the interest rate can be analyzed. We derive the expected value and the variance of the survival value of the debt and the recovery rate, and also derive the probability distribution function and the expected value of the recovery completion time. Moreover we present the numerical methods for calculating the expected value and the variance based on Panjer recursion formula and the fast Fourier transformation, and show numerical results. Also we propose a new method of calculating the transition density of an inhomogeneous compound Poisson process. Our method is based on approximating an inhomogeneous compound Poisson process by a piecewise homogeneous compound Poisson process. This method is used to compute the expected value and the variance of an inhomogeneous compound Poisson process.     

The reaction of the U.S. and the European Monetary Union to recent global financial crises

This paper analyzes the responses of the United States and the economies of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) to the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. The crisis illuminates the fundamental structural problems within the EMU, the European Union and the United States and the scale and scope of interconnections among the world economy. The paper focuses on the reactions of the real sector to the financial disturbances in these economies. Both comparative static and dynamic methodologies are used in order to appraise the scope and pace of adjustments in response to the global crisis.     

金融包容的逻辑起点及体系构建——兼论新背景下金融包容的推进与应用

鉴于国内对金融排斥、普惠金融、金融包容的研究还存在诸多分歧,地理学者和金融学者对其可达性及使用性维度仍有不同理解,从学术溯源的角度,通过梳理金融包容的历史沿革和内涵演化,界定不同理念之间的区别与联系,并结合最新的数字金融、虚拟集聚背景,提出“三度”“三维”“三协调”为一体的金融包容体系。从复杂系统论的角度,创新性地将其分为金融包容的协调体系、风险管理体系、创新体系、组织体系及传导体系,并探索了主流金融范畴的扩展、格莱珉模式的思考以及传递渠道的创新等,剖析了新的研究范式的不足,为未来理论研究和实践推进提供路径及展望。     

加快建设中国特色第三支柱个人养老金制度:理论探讨与政策选择

第三支柱个人养老金是国家养老金体系的重要支柱,也是中国特色养老金融体系的有机组成部分。建立和发展个人养老金制度有利于缓解养老金领域发展不平衡不充分问题,夯实应对人口老龄化的社会财富储备。个人养老金的核心特征是个人主导和享受财税政策支持。从功能上看,个人养老金是养老金制度补充和收入补充,推动投资养老理念形成并促进资本市场完善。目前的第三支柱个人养老金试点政策在覆盖人群、税优设计和运行流程等方面存在问题,未来应统筹国家三支柱养老金体系建设,重视政府作用的发挥,制定与我国财税体制改革相适应、公平有效的财税政策,充分调动金融机构的积极性,并加强养老金融教育。