Constructing Multi‐Country Rational Expectations Models

This article considers some of the technical issues involved in using the global vector autoregression (GVAR) approach to construct a multi‐country rational expectations (RE) model and illustrates them with a new Keynesian model for 33 countries estimated with quarterly data over the period 1980–2011. The issues considered are: the measurement of steady states; the determination of exchange rates and the specification of the short‐run country‐specific models; the identification and estimation of the model subject to the theoretical constraints required for a determinate rational expectations solution; the solution of a large RE model; the structure and estimation of the covariance matrix and the simulation of shocks. The model used as an illustration shows that global demand and supply shocks are the most important drivers of output, inflation and interest rates in the long run. By contrast, monetary or exchange rate shocks have only a short‐run impact in the evolution of the world economy. The article also shows the importance of international connections, directly as well as indirectly through spillover effects. Overall, ignoring global inter‐connections as country‐specific models do, could give rise to misleading conclusions.     

Residential Hedonic Models: A Rational Expectations Approach to Age Effects

This paper develops a rational expectations framework for interpreting the coefficient on age in a standard hedonic model. The model demonstrates that there are two components to the age coefficient: a pure cross-sectional depreciation component and a demand-side component that changes over time. We also show that a constant quality price index with age constant can be estimated by using any repeat sales database that contains the year of construction (or property age). When Fairfax County data are fitted to the model, the time series of age coefficients is non-stationary: they change from negative in the early 1980s to positive in the late 1980s; we infer that the demand-side component dominated in the latter period.     

人-组织匹配度与工作绩效之间的相关性研究

人-组织匹配(P-O Fit)已成为当今国内外企业管理者和学者研究的热点领域,也是人力资源管理与组织行为学研究的热点问题。主要是因为二者的匹配度能很好地预测个人的工作态度和行为结果,从而影响组织绩效。本文以深圳一民营高科技企业为调查对象,分析研究了个人、组织价值观及其匹配与工作满意度、工作绩效的关系与影响。     

我国企业应对反倾销的措施

中国逐渐成为世界首要的反倾销目标国家,对我国企业的生存越来越不利。面对这种现状,企业应积极面对。文中从积极应诉、创新出口策略、诉诸世贸组织争端解决机制等三个方面阐述了应对反倾销的措施。     

Linear Decentralized Control with Expectations

In this paper, we consider a decentralized discrete-time control model with expectations. There are as many decision-makers as scalar state (and control) variables, and each decision-maker forms an expectation on the impact that affects him/her. Using rational and naive expectations, we describe the stability conditions of the alternative expectations. Our results generalized earlier ones by Metzler and Lovell, from an inventory control model to an abstract model, and solve the problem of the generation of a feasible normal path presented by Kornai and Martos.     

人-组织匹配对员工冲突感的放大作用机制研究

文章在已有对人-组织匹配和冲突的理论研究基础上，分析了人-组织匹配与员工冲突感的关系，并基于Weber—Fechner模型和值函数模型推导出人-组织匹配与员工冲突感的关系模型，在此基础上，分析了人-组织匹配对员工冲突感的放大作用机制，为管理者通过改进人-组织匹配度来有效管理冲突奠定了理论基础。     

Testing Steady‐State Restrictions of Linear Rational Expectations Models when Data are Highly Persistent*

Steady‐state restrictions are commonly imposed on highly persistent variables to achieve stationarity prior to confronting rational expectations models with data. However, the resulting steady‐state deviations are often surprisingly persistent indicating that some aspects of the underlying theory may be empirically problematic. This paper discusses how to formulate steady‐state restrictions in rational expectations models with latent forcing variables and test their validity using cointegration techniques. The approach is illustrated by testing steady‐state restrictions for alternative specifications of the New Keynesian model and shown to be able to discriminate between different assumptions on the sources of the permanent shocks.     

基于“拟合”理念的巴蜀古镇区域保护

以融贯学科的研究思维作为方法论基础,阐释了"拟合"的概念涵义及其在巴蜀古镇保护中的适用性,同时探讨了"拟合"时于古镇保护的现实意义和技术路线,在此基础之上提出了古镇保护区域拟合的建构模式与分区构想,为巴蜀古镇的区域保护提供了一种具体的工作思路和技术方法.     

基于港口视角下广西物流发展的战略思考和措施

文章分析了广西沿海港口的现状及制约物流发展的问题,从广西港口腹地核心层、中心层、中间层、泛外层视角对物流和产业布局进行了思考,提出了广西物流近期发展的重点、中期发展的目标和远期发展的展望,并对发展广西港口物流产业提出一些建议及措施。     

基于港口视角下广西物流发展的战略思考和措施

文章分析了广西沿海港口的现状及制约物流发展的问题,从广西港口腹地核心层、中心层、中间层、泛外层视角对物流和产业布局进行了思考,提出了广西物流近期发展的重点、中期发展的目标和远期发展的展望,并对发展广西港口物流产业提出一些建议及措施。     

浅谈沥青路面病害成因及对策

文章针对沥青路面常见的病害进行了系统的分析,并提出了相应的对策,以期对提高沥青路面工程质量起到一定的促进作用。     

Dynamic Factor Demands and Technology Measurement under Arbitrary Expectations

We present a dynamic model of factor demands based on expected discounted costs minimization. While making only very mild assumptions on expectations and technology, we are able to establish a duality relationship between contemporary factor demands and the technology, and we provide formula for easily recovering marginal products, returns to scale, and technological change from estimated factor demands. Parametrization and implementation are illustrated in a detailed example.     

企业伦理价值、组织承诺与人员-组织配适关系之研究-以流通连锁产业为例

本文以台湾流通连锁产业为例,研究了企业伦理价值、组织承诺以及人员与组织配适关系。     

Rational asset pricing bubbles and debt constraints

Rational price bubble arises when the price of an asset exceeds the asset’s fundamental value, that is, the present value of future dividend payments. The important result of Santos and Woodford (1997) says that price bubbles cannot exist in equilibrium in the standard dynamic asset pricing model with rational agents facing borrowing constraints as long as assets are in strictly positive supply and the present value of total future resources is finite. This paper explores the possibility of asset price bubbles under endogenous debt constraints induced by limited enforcement of debt repayment. Equilibria with endogenous debt constraints are prone to have infinite present value of total resources. We show that asset price bubbles are likely to exist in such equilibria. Further, we demonstrate that there always exist equilibria with price bubbles on assets in zero supply.     

浅谈电网节能降损的措施

文章通过论述广西梧州市市区供电网几年来的节能降损措施的实施情况,从中得到一些有用的经验,并提出了对电网节能降损的一些建议。     

浅谈城市建设理性化的建筑对策

城市建设的理性化,不仅包括城市社会结构、经济结构、文化结构等方面的合理布局,同时也表现为城市建设通畅、有序等多方面清晰的脉络。建筑作为构成城市建设的重要元素,对城市健康有序的发展起着举足轻重的作用。文章从建筑学角度出发,剖析影响城市理性建设的因素,提出城市建设应具有清晰和理性的建筑对策。     

关于我国奢华品消费的理性思考

文章在分析我国奢华品消费现状的基础下,梳理了我国奢华品消费的主要特征表现为:消费群体多样化,消费时间集中,消费产品外显化,消费目标偏物化;基于我国奢华品消费存在的问题,提出了正确引导中国奢华品消费行为的对策建议:进行奢华品消费主题教育,引导奢华品消费理性行为,拓展奢华品消费合理渠道,完善奢华品消费服务配套等.     

浅谈电网节能降损的措施

文章通过论述广西梧州市市区供电网几年来的节能降损措施的实施情况,从中得到一些有用的经验,并提出了对电网节能降损的一些建议。