A Turnpike Theorem in the Closed Dynamic Leontief Model with a Singular Matrix of Capital Coefficients

The paper refers to the well-known Tsukui turnpike theorem on convergence of optimal growth trajectories in the closed dynamic Leontief model to the maximum balanced growth trajectory, called turnpike. In the original proof of this theorem, the assumption that the matrix B of capital coefficients is non-singular plays an essential role. For many reasons this assumption, very convenient for theoretical analysis, is not always satisfied in input-output systems built for empirical purposes. This paper fills the gap between theory and empirical studies, presenting a proof that convergence of optimal trajectories towards the turnpike is also a characteristic feature of the closed Leontief model in the case when matrix B is singular. The general idea of the proof is based on the approximation of a singular matrix B by an infinite sequence of non-singular matrices.     

The modified golden rule of a multi-sector economy

We consider an n-good model of optimal accumulation determined by a technology, a utility function, and a discount factor. A technology is δ-productive if it contains an input-output pair such that the discounted output vector strictly dominates the input vector. We show that a δ-productive technology has a non-trivial modified golden rule. We also report a counter- example of David Starrett showing that the modified golden rule need not have turnpike properties, and that there may exist non-trivial periodic optimal consumption plans even when there is no non-trivial modified golden rule.     

Turnpike property and convergence rate for an investment model with general utility functions

In this paper we aim to address two questions faced by a long-term investor with a power-type utility at high levels of wealth: one is whether the turnpike property still holds for a general utility that is not necessarily differentiable or strictly concave, the other is whether the error and the convergence rate of the turnpike property can be estimated. We give positive answers to both questions. To achieve these results, we first show that there is a classical solution to the HJB equation and give a representation of the solution in terms of the dual function of the solution to the dual HJB equation. We demonstrate the usefulness of that representation with some nontrivial examples that would be difficult to solve with the trial and error method. We then combine the dual method and the partial differential equation method to give a direct proof to the turnpike property and to estimate the error and the convergence rate of the optimal policy when the utility function is continuously differentiable and strictly concave. We finally relax the conditions of the utility function and provide some sufficient conditions that guarantee the turnpike property and the convergence rate in terms of both primal and dual utility functions.     

An integration of equilibrium theory and turnpike theory

A turnpike theorem is proved for a general equilibrium model with finitely many immortal consumers.     

Efficient growth of an agglomerating regional economy

The focus of this study is on the efficient investment policy to be pursued by a regional or local economy, respectively. Localness will be expressed in terms of varying returns to scale which are due to economies and diseconomies of agglomeration. This particular setting of regional growth enters into a neoclassical calculus of variations model of intertemporal capital stock maximization. The general properties significant of efficient growth strategies relate to the turnpike discussion. A unique set of maximum balanced expansion paths will be proved to serve as the only guideline for efficient investment in the long run.     

Optimal control on an infinite time horizon: The turnpike approach

The optimal control problem with infinite horizon is defined. Under assumptions motivated by the theory of optimal economic growth the controllability of the system, the turnpike property, the asymptotic behavior and the existence of optimal trajectories are fully explored.     

A ‘funnel’ turnpike theorem for optimal growth problems with discounting

A turnpike theorem for the optimal control problem with discounting is given. The optimal trajectory is shown to lie in an exponentially bounded region of the optimal steady-state. This region, referred to as a funnel, is determined by the discount rate of the problem. The funnel theorem reduces to the classical turnpike theorem when the discount rate is zero.     

Strategic Ramsey equilibrium dynamics

We study strategic Ramsey equilibria. First, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for a stationary equilibrium point to exist where only the most patient household owns capital. We develop the dynamics of strategic Ramsey equilibrium trajectories when the turnpike property holds and there is a stationary equilibrium with only the most patient household owning capital. We conclude by showing there is a class of economies for which the turnpike property obtains.     

The turnpike of dynamic general equilibrium paths and its insensitivity to initial conditions

Asymptotic turnpike theorems in the case where the future is discounted are traditionally derived under the assumptions that a utility function is twice differentiable and that is Hessian is negative definite. Replacing these assumptions by a weaker one. I give a proof of the theorem simpler than existing ones.     

基于情景集的鲁棒列车开行方案问题研究

为适应旅客列车的客流波动情况,开行方案的编制必须具备比较好的鲁棒性。建立开行方案的优化模型,求解高铁线路上的停站方案和服务频率的开行方案。通过设定客流波动的情景集,使用基于情景集的鲁棒优化方法,建立适应客流波动的鲁棒列车开行方案模型。通过京沪高铁实例分析,得到鲁棒性比较好的列车开行方案。     

The primal route to the turnpike and asymptotic stability

Asymptotic turnpike theorems in the case where the future is discounted are traditionally derived under the assumptions that a utility function is twice differentiable and that is Hessian is negative definite. Replacing these assumptions by a weaker one. I give a proof of the theorem simpler than existing ones.     

Estimation of the effects of adverse selection and moral hazard on income-contingent loan plans for professional and graduate students

The increasing repayment burden of conventional student loans and the rapid growth of attendance costs are concerns that should spark renewed interest in income-contingent loans, especially for students in high-cost graduate and professional programs. This paper provides a model of the demand for income-contingent loans that can be used to estimate the possible effects of adverse selection and moral hazard on the financial viability of income-contingent loan plans. Simulations based on the loan-demand model are presented for medical students, and the results are discussed in terms of alternative options for reducing the effects of adverse selection and moral hazard.     

The efficient paths to infinity in closed leontief models

For a simple Leontief technology, the results of finite-horizon turnpike theorems are extended to the case of infinite horizon. Further qualitative information is obtained about the set of efficient programs. Uniqueness is discussed, and shown by an example to be not true in general.     

On the smoothness of optimal paths II: some local turnpike results

We study the local turnpike property for two classes of infinite-horizon discrete-time deterministic maximization problems which have common applications, e.g., optimal growth theory. We follow a functional-analytic approach and rely on an implicit function theorem for the space of the sequences which converge to zero. We shall assume the existence of an optimal path which is not necessarily a steady-state. Relying on material developped in Blot and Crettez (Decis Econo Finance 27:1–34, 2004), “On the smoothness of optimal paths” Decis Econ Finance, 21:1–34, 2004), we provide conditions under which a variation in the initial conditions (i.e., capital stock and discount rate) yields an optimal solution which converges toward a reference solution when time becomes infinite. We also provide new results on bounded solutions of difference equations. We gratefully thank the editor, Silvano Holzer, and two anonymous referees for remarks and advices on a previous version of this paper.     

基于动态事件调度仿真的高速铁路动车组运用计划计算机协同编制方法的研究

依据动车组运用的牵引动力与载客装置不可分离的原则,动车组挂运接续和列车运行线的时点是一致的,因此将这些时点作为变量,考虑动车组整备维修、动车组站段折返接续作业时间、列车运行线铺画约束、列车挂运匹配等条件,建立以动车组运用效率和列车运行计划均衡性为指标的基本模型,采用动态事件表调度方法实现可行方案编制,研究站间固定区段运用模式下,单基地多车种的动车组运用计划与成对列车运行计划协同编制问题。最后以京津客运专线实际条件模拟编制动车运用计划,以验证模型与算法的可行性。     

Mutual fund selection and performance persistence in 401(k) Plans

We examine how plan sponsors/providers select mutual funds for 401(k) plans and whether performance persistence exists for mutual funds listed in 401(k) plans. Using a hand-collected data set of 401(k) investment options, we find that plan sponsors are likely to choose actively managed growth funds, including aggressive growth funds and long-term growth funds. Furthermore, more than 50% of the mutual funds in our sample of 401(k) plans are selected from the top 10 fund families in terms of total net assets. On average, plan sponsors select funds that outperform the funds with the same investment objective and that have low expense ratios. The performance of mutual funds in 401(k) plans only persists in a short horizon. Our analysis indicates that the menus of 401(k) investment options do not exhibit a signaling effect, indicating that investment options in 401(k) plans do not supply useful information about the future performance of mutual funds for investors in selecting mutual funds.     

Applying the marketing concept to cultural organisations: an empirical study of the relationship between market orientation and performance

A recent trend in nonprofit organisations is an emphasis on business management and concepts. This paper examines the application of the marketing concept to nonprofit arts organisations through an analysis of the relationship between market orientation and organisational performance. Data were collected from arts organisations in two large Canadian cities, and a structural equations model was developed to test the impact of marketing activities and culture on three performance variables (customer satisfaction, peer reputation and resource attraction). The analysis shows that the model fits the data well and that six hypotheses pertaining to the relationship between market orientation and organisational performance were supported. The study concludes that those organisations that implemented more market‐driven activities into their marketing plans were more likely to develop a market‐oriented internal culture. A market‐oriented culture not only predicted a growth in resources and higher levels of customer satisfaction, but also a growth in reputation among peers. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications     

创新驱动发展与企业劳动收入份额

选取2012—2020年沪深A股上市公司为样本,实证检验创新驱动发展与企业劳动收入份额之间的关系,以及高管股权激励和员工持股对上述关系的调节效应。研究发现：企业创新驱动发展能够有效提高企业劳动收入份额;实施高管股权激励和员工持股计划均能显著增强上述关系。进一步研究发现,盈利水平发挥了部分中介效应,且当企业处于成长期和衰退期、市场化程度较高的地区以及为非国有企业时,上述关系更显著。研究结论表明,特别是处于成长期与衰退期、市场化程度较高地区的企业,以及非国有企业,大力推动创新驱动发展,并辅之以高管股权激励和员工持股计划,可以提高企业劳动收入份额,实现和谐发展,推进共同富裕目标实现。     

Small asymmetric fractional factorial plans for main effects and specified two-factor interactions

Fractional factorial plans represented by orthogonal arrays of strength two are known to be optimal in a very strong sense under a model that includes the mean and all the main effects, when all interactions are assumed to be absent. When a fractional factorial plan given by an orthogonal array of strength two is not saturated, one might think of entertaining some two-factor interactions also in the model. In such a situation, it is of interest to examine which of the two-factor interactions can be estimated via a plan represented by an orthogonal array, as also to study the overall efficiency of the plan when some interactions are in the model alongwith the mean and all main effects. In this paper, an attempt has been made to examine these issues by considering some practically useful plans for asymmetric (mixed level) factorials with small number of runs.     

Bayesian analysis of the ordered probit model with endogenous selection

This paper presents a Bayesian analysis of an ordered probit model with endogenous selection. The model can be applied when analyzing ordered outcomes that depend on endogenous covariates that are discrete choice indicators modeled by a multinomial probit model. The model is illustrated by analyzing the effects of different types of medical insurance plans on the level of hospital utilization, allowing for potential endogeneity of insurance status. The estimation is performed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters in the model.