中国与世界主要国家电价比较分析

通过对世界部分国家电价进行对比,剖析了我国在上网电价、输配电价、终端销售电价以及电力与其他能源产品比价方面存在的问题,认为我国电价总体水平偏低,需要适时调整电价水平和电价结构,尽快形成独立的输配电价。     

Negative Strompreise und der Vorrang Erneuerbarer Energien

With the appearance of negative prices a discussion about flaws in the design of the German electricity market arose. We show that negative prices are not only due to the integration of electricity from renewable energy sources. Negative prices can actually increase welfare. Yet, a loss of welfare does arise because of the priority feed-in of these sources. They are inclined to deliver energy even when the cost of production exceeds the market price, i.e. the electricity’s value. We suggest to remove the priority feed-in combined with a modification of the feed-in tariffs. Thereby, renewable electricity producers will suffer no drawbacks but social welfare increases.     

Die Verteilung der Kosten des Ausbaus der Erneuerbaren

Germany’s private and industrial consumers have to bear electricity prices that are among the highest in Europe, a major reason being the massive subsidization of green electricity via feed-in tariffs. To dampen future electricity cost increases, numerous suggestions were published recently. They differ substantially with respect to their distributional impacts, transaction costs, political feasibility, and their impact on the cost-effectiveness of the future promotion of renewable technologies. This article’s qualitative evaluation of the most prominent proposals indicates that, more or less, they all fall short with respect to these evaluation criteria. In conclusion, decision-makers would be well advised to reconsider Germany’s renewable energy goals. Consideration should be given to either abolishing these ambitious goals or to improving the cost-effectiveness of the future expansion of renewable energy technologies to dampen the likely continued increase in electricity prices.     

The Impact of PV on the German Power Market

During the last months, the discussion on feed-in tariffs (FiT) for photovoltaic (PV) installations in Germany has gained new momentum. On the one hand, the issue of over-subsidisation due to the fact that module prices have been decreasing faster than feed-in tariffs was discussed. On the other hand, increasing costs to the consumers of power were put on the agenda after the unprecedented increase in new PV capacity in Germany in 2009. After the general election in September 2009 this discussion lead to different proposals for adjusting the FiT scheme. In summer 2010 a bill was passed amending the current FiT. Both, in the discussion and in the bill, an important aspect has been neglected so far: the impact of the massively increasing PV capacities on the economics of conventional power plants. The present study fills this gap. In the first part, it is qualitatively shown how the power price and the equilibrium quantity on the power exchange change with increasing PV capacities. These findings can be directly translated into shrinking revenues for operators of conventional power plants. In the second part, a quantitative analysis of the German power market is provided. The effects of different PV scenarios on the wholesale power price and the total revenues (i.e., price multiplied by quantity) of all conventional power plants are calculated. For an incumbent operator of a coal-fired power plant, the contribution margin may decrease by more than 25% and for a new, yet to build gas-fired combined cycle power plant it may drop by more than 30%. The study concludes that the PV support scheme can be understood as the accelerator pedal for the structural change in the German power sector. Implementing the changes in the feed-in tariffs as presented in the bill will require more and faster changes in the overall design of the power market to provide sufficient incentives for backup capacities when the sun is not shining. It would also be accompanied by additional acceleration costs. Absolute caps on the added capacity, rather than further cuts in the tariffs, could buy some time for a careful redesign of the market and may reduce resistance from incumbent operators.     

Die Auswirkungen des EEG auf das Energiesystem Deutschlands – Eine Betrachtung mit dem Energiesystemmodell TIMES-D

In Germany, the electricity generation from renewable energy has been promoted since the year 2000 by a feed-in tariff system, the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG). This article evaluates the long-term impact of the German feed-in tariffs on the development of the German energy system with the help of the energy system model TIMES-D. In the model-based analysis, both the payment side (i.e. the tariffs) and the cost side (i.e. the EEG apportionment) are taken into consideration. Through the promotion of the feed-in tariff system—in combination with the European Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)—the use of renewable energies in electricity generation in Germany rises considerably such that renewable energy sources account for almost 40% of total gross electricity consumption in 2030. Accordingly, until 2020 total EEG fee payments as well as the EEG apportionment increase significantly. The impact of the feed-in tariff system on final electricity demand is, however, relatively small. Alternative scenario settings show that the expansion of the renewable electricity generation through the feed-in tariff system clearly exceeds the development which would occur when trying to reach the reduction targets of the ETS in a cost-efficient way.     

Einfluss der CO2-Zertifikatspreise auf die Stromgestehungskosten im deutschen Energiemix

In the past, electricity generation costs in Germany’s energy mix depended for the most part on the development of fossil fuel prices. Despite the strongly increasing share of renewable energies in the energy mix, the generation of electricity from fossil fuel power plants, especially brown and bituminous coal power plants, still dominates in Germany today. Alongside fossil fuels as an increasing cost factor, the price of CO₂ is also gaining importance as a price factor in the production of electricity from fossil fuel power plants. The establishment of the European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) in 2005 formed the basis of CO₂ emissions pricing, and was oriented on the emission reduction targets of the European Union. Although the price of CO₂-certificates in free trade is shown on several stock exchanges, the CO₂ price is still policy driven. The amount of free allocated and traded CO₂-certificates is set on a European policy level. Current decisions on temporary limitations of the trade volume have corresponding effects on exchange prices. This article aims to investigate the impact of CO₂-certificate prices on electricity generation costs in the German energy mix. Comparing real CO₂ prices to forecasts for 2013 provides findings on the effects that the political decisions of the European Parliament with regard to the limitation of the trade volume of available CO₂-certificates have on electricity generation costs in the German energy mix.     

Mögliche Entwicklung der Umlage zur Förderung der Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energien durch das Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz bis 2018

As a result of the strong growth of renewable energies in the German electricity sector within the last few years, the allocation of renewable costs to the consumer (RES-E apportionment) has been set to 5.277 ct/kWh for 2013 (ÜNB, Pressemitteilung der Übertragungsnetzbetreiber zur veröffentlichten EEG-Umlage 2013, 2012a). This article presents potential developments in the costs of promoting renewable energy and the RES-E apportionment in Germany using three different scenarios. Each of the scenarios considers different trends with respect to further deployment of renewable energies, wholesale prices and electricity demand. Due to the underlying uncertainties surrounding these major parameters, the scenarios show a wide range for the RES-E apportionment. A reduction of the RES-E apportionment can be reached if we consider an increase in wholesale prices. However, the scenarios indicate a further increase in the RES-E apportionment, where the amount heavily depends on the further deployment of renewable energies and the development of wholesale prices. Despite the reduction of feed-in tariffs, a main contributor to an increase in the RES-E apportionment is still the ongoing deployment of photovoltaics (PV). In order to prevent a further cost increase without inhibiting renewable targets, it may be worth focusing on comparably cheaper technologies in the further deployment of renewable energies.     

Symbiotic production: The case of telecommunication pricing

In this paper we analyze a generalization of vertical monopolies in which monopoly suppliers trade essential inputs with one another. The most obvious applications of the model, which we call symbiotic production, are to postal and telecommunications services. We show how producers can use per-unit tariffs to achieve cooperative outcomes without colluding directly over consumer prices. We then show the firms have an incentive to collude in the setting of tariffs but that suchcollusion will lower consumer prices. This assumes that the suppliers are otherwise unfettered. In contrast, if the constituent monopolies are regulated, we show that collusion enables the firms to completely undo the restraints of regulation. The model has important policy implications for the international telecommunications market.     

Die Kosten des Klimaschutzes am Beispiel der Strompreise für private Haushalte

Power prices in Germany have been surging since the outset of the new millennium. Among the major reasons for this tendency are newly raised taxes and levies on electricity prices, whose introduction is primarily motivated by climate concerns. Without these taxes and levies, net electricity prices would have remained constant for private households. This article discusses these taxes and levies that have been responsible for the cost increases in private households’ electricity consumption. Most influential have been the feed-in tariffs for renewable energies, above all photovoltaics. According to our calculations, the levy for renewables will further increase in the up-coming years, thereby pushing consumers’ electricity cost once again. Our calculations also show that within the next couple of years, there will be a fierce competition among renewable energy technologies, most notably between photovoltaics and wind power. Politics would be well-advised, therefore, to limit the annual capacity of newly installed solar modules in order to avoid both the explosion of consumers’ electricity bills and strong competition among renewables.     

The effect of coal combustion byproducts on price discrimination by upstream industries

Price discrimination is often difficult to disentangle from price dispersion due to a lack of transaction level data capable of tracking sales from individual companies to quantifiably heterogeneous groups of consumers. This paper uses mine-mouth prices and transportation prices paid by regulated coal-fired power plants in the U.S. coal market during the time period 2009–2010 to study how coal mines and transportation companies practice price discrimination against electricity plants. Power plants with heterogeneous demand for coal are perfectly identified based upon their ability to market flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) gypsum, which is a byproduct produced from scrubbing SO₂ emissions. Because sulfur is the raw material for FGD gypsum byproduct production, gypsum sellers are anticipated to have a more inelastic demand for high-sulfur coal. Results indicate that coal mines and transporters charge higher prices to gypsum sellers in comparison to non-sellers for transactions originating at the same mine during the same month of the same year. Coal-fired power plants capable of selling FGD gypsum byproducts are estimated to pay a 10.3–39.6 ¢/MMBtu price premium for coal. Coal mines and transportation companies each capture a relatively equal share of the associated rents.     

Elektroautos in einer von erneuerbaren Energien geprägten Energiewirtschaft

The German Federal Government wants to establish Germany as a leading market for electric mobility. Potential environmental benefits and changes in the economic framework conditions of the energy sector are described in this paper. In order to quantify the electricity split which is actually used for charging electric vehicles, two economic models for the energy sector, a model for the market penetration of electric vehicles, a vehicle model and an LCA model are brought together. Based on an assumed dynamic increase of electric vehicles to 12 million in 2030, an additional electricity demand of about 18 TWh is calculated. If the vehicles are charged directly after their last daily trip, the peak load increases by 12%—despite the small increase in electricity demand. First model calculations for the development of the European power generation system show that the direct impact on the construction of new power plants remains low even until 2030. An impact of electric mobility on CO₂ certificate prices can only be seen from 2025 onwards and is limited to an increase in certificate prices by a maximum of 8 % in 2030. An optimisation is possible with intelligent charging strategies: The peak load without demand side management can be reduced by 5 GW and about 600 GWh of additional wind energy can used which would otherwise have been throttled due to feed-in management—about 3.5 % of the total electricity demand of electric vehicles. On the other hand, demand side management leads to more coal power plants instead of gas power plants being used to meet the additional electricity demand. If additional renewable sources are installed along with demand side management, the electricity for electric vehicles is almost carbon free. This is also reflected in the life cycle balance of electric vehicles which also includes vehicle and battery production: With today’s average electricity split in Germany, the greenhouse gas emissions of electric vehicles are about comparable to vehicles with conventional combustion engines. However, the electricity split in 2030 or the use of additional renewable energy sources lead to a significant advantage in the greenhouse gas balance.     

Successive Oligopolies with Differentiated Firms and Endogeneous Entry

We develop a model of successive oligopolies with endogenous entry, allowing for varying degrees of product differentiation and entry costs in both markets. We show that downstream conditions dominate the overall profitability of the two‐tier structure while upstream conditions mainly affect the distribution of profits. We analyze how two‐part tariffs and resale price maintenance shape the endogenous market structure and study their welfare effects. In contrast to previous literature, we find that welfare under linear prices can be larger than under twopart tariffs although the latter avoids double marginalization. This is because linear prices induce more downstream market entry.     

Group purchasing, nonlinear tariffs, and oligopoly

Loyalty discounts are nonlinear tariffs that condition rebates or marginal prices on meeting aggregate purchase or market share targets. These discounts are widespread, and are often the impetus for consumers to form buying groups, or group purchase organizations (GPOs). This paper models the competitive effects of the introduction of a GPO into a market within which the preferences of the GPO's members are horizontally differentiated. While nonlinear tariffs are an effective way for a monopolist to extract consumer surplus, when two suppliers compete using such schedules, the results are far more competitive in comparison to simple Bertrand–Nash competition with linear tariffs. This result holds when the product of each of the suppliers is attractive to a substantial portion of consumers. In our model, the nonlinear schedule puts all customers “in play” to a degree that contrasts sharply with the competition at the margin characteristic of constant per unit prices. Moreover, competing in nonlinear tariffs removes allocative inefficiency that can result from single price competition.     

Development of onshore wind energy utilisation in Germany

Onshore wind energy utilisation in Germany has developed very dynamically in the last decade. This has mainly been driven by the renewable energy laws that systematically support the expansion of renewable energy in the electricity sector. In 2009 a revised law with increased feed-in tariffs for wind energy has come into force. Existing studies already predict a wide range of development patterns under the Renewable Energy Sources Acts 2000 and 2004. This paper investigates the long term impact of different feed-in tariffs implemented by the legislative authorities and it provides corresponding future development patterns of onshore wind energy utilisation in Germany. The underlying System Dynamics model considers technical as well as economic conditions and constraints. The approach and the model’s results are contrasted with other published predictions qualitatively and quantitatively. This comparison shows that the model’s outcome lies in the range of predictions by existing studies, but also shows some interesting differences.

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Zusammenfassung  Die Entwicklung der Windenergienutzung in Deutschland wahrend der letzten Dekade verlief sehr dynamisch. MagBgeblich dafur war die systematische Forde-rung mittels der Erneuerbare Energien Gesetze (EEG) bzw. deren Vorlaufer. Vom Jahr 2009 an gilt ein uberarbeitetes Gesetz, welches u.a. erhohte Einspeisever-gutungen furWindenergie beinhaltet.Vorliegende Studien, die sich mit derzu-kunftigen Entwicklung auseinandersetzten, zeigen bereits deutlich unterschied-liche Szenarien fur die Entwicklung unter dem EEG 2000 und 2004. Diese Arbeit setzt sich mit den langfristigen Auswirkungen der verschiedenen vom Gesetz-geber festgelegten Einspeisetarife auseinander und stellt entsprechend unter-schiedliche Ausbauszenarien fur die deutsche Onshore Windenergienutzung dar. Das zugrunde liegende System Dynamics Modell berucksichtigt dabei sowohl technische als auch okonomische Parameter. Der Ansatz sowie die Ergebnisse werden anderen veroffentlichten Prognosen gegenubergestellt. Die Ergebnisse liegen innerhalb der Spannbreite der anderen berucksichtigten Studien, zei-gen jedoch auch interessante Unterschiede.

     

The Impact of LEED Neighborhood Certification on Condo Prices

The U.S. Green Building Council offers LEED certification for existing and new neighborhood developments that meet sustainable urban development standards. Features of sustainable urban development have been found to positively affect residential sales prices. We investigate whether the intangible labeling effects of LEED neighborhood certification add a premium to the sales prices of LEED and non‐LEED–certified condos. Using a quasi‐experiment, transaction data from Portland, Oregon, and a spatio‐temporal autoregressive (STAR) model, we find no evidence that the intangible labeling effects of LEED neighborhood certification directly or indirectly affect sales prices. Our results suggest that, contrary to LEED building certification, which we find adds a premium to condo sales prices, the LEED neighborhood label by itself fails to add value for condo buyers. Explanations for our findings include market acceptance, neighborhood delineation issues and the free rider problem as it relates to public goods.     

Revenue Sharing and Vertical Control in the Video Rental Industry

Revenue sharing contracts, in which retailers pay a royalty on sales to their suppliers, are now widely used in the video rental industry. We show that revenue sharing is valuable in vertically separated industries in which demand is either stochastic (unpredictable) or variable (e.g., systematically declining), downstream inventory is chosen before demand is realized and downstream firms engage in intrabrand competition. Unlike two-part tariffs, revenue sharing achieves the first best outcome by softening retail price competition without distorting retailers' inventory decisions. Our theories are also consistent with trends in prices and availability following retailers' adoption of revenue sharing contracts.     

Development of a Network-location-model for the Economic Optimization of Local Heating Systems in Urban Chile

Cogeneration of heat and electricity is an important pillar of energy and climate policy. To plan the production and distribution system of combined heat and power (CHP) systems for residential heating, suitable methods for decision support are needed. For a comprehensive feasibility analysis, the integration of the location and capacity planning of the power plants, the choice of customers, and the network planning of the heating network into one optimization model are necessary. Thus, we develop an optimization model for electricity generation and heat supply. This mixed integer linear program (MILP) is based on graph theory for network flow problems. We apply the network location model for the optimization of district heating systems in the City of Osorno in Chile, which exhibits the “checkerboard layout” typically found in many South American cities. The network location model can support the strategic planning of investments in renewable energy projects because it permits the analysis of changing energy prices, calculation of break-even prices for heat and electricity, and estimation of greenhouse gas emission savings.     

Repeat Sales as a Matching Estimator

The most common approaches for constructing house price indices—hedonic price functions and the repeat sales estimator—focus on changes over time in mean prices. Though the hedonic approach is less wasteful of data than the repeat sales estimator, it relies on an accurate specification of the underlying econometric model. I suggest using a matching estimator as an alternative to the hedonic and repeat sales approaches. Like the repeat sales approach, a matching estimator uses pairs of sales from different dates to estimate the mean difference in sales prices over time. The matching approach preserves much larger sample sizes than the repeat sales estimator while requiring less preimposed structure than the hedonic approach. The matching approach makes it easy to characterize changes in the full distribution of house prices.     

Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines

Faced with high domestic rice prices that have fueled inflation above the 2018 target and penalized poor consumers the most, the government of the Philippines has decided to abandon the quantitative restrictions on imports and replace them with tariffs. This paper uses a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework to assess the possible impacts of this reform on imports, production, consumption and prices. In contrast with past similar studies, we address three key concerns (i) the heterogeneity in farm price across 16 regions in response to the combined effect of the tarriffication and the average historical trend in productivity increase at 1.5% between 2001 and 2018, (ii) the differentiation of imports by origin partly due to the different tariffs applied to countries within and beyond the Association of South East Asian Nations, and (iii) the effect on domestic prices in third countries. The simulation results suggest that the reform would increase imports by 2.47 million tons (20.7%) in 2019. We also find a large decline in farm prices and retail prices respectively by PhP 6.1/kg (30.1%) and PhP 7.6/kg (17.4%) in 2019 that explains an increase in rice consumption. We estimate the fall in total inflation at 1.2% in 2019 but less over time. Further, the large fall in farm prices in 2019 is shared quite evenly among regions in the short term but returns to pre-reform levels in the near term. Using a higher price elasticity of supply for one region obtained from panel data surveys, we show a more pronounced decline in production than the national average. Such differentiated results confirm the relevance of using a regionally disaggregated model to design more targeted policies. We also show a slight increase in world prices, which led to small increases in the domestic prices of South and Southeast Asian rice markets. While this reform is largely pro-poor consumers, policy makers would need to use the additional tariff revenue to help rice growers either increase their competitiveness and modernize their rice production or shift to other crops.