美元升息升值将同步出现

通过对政治、经济因素的分析,可以认为美元将进入逐步升息周期,并且美元汇率也将进入升值阶段。但两者的相关性不大     

强势美元政策:背景与前景

强势美元政策保证了外资对美国的强劲流入,外资流入支撑了美国的低通货膨胀,弥补了美国的储蓄——投资缺口和对外贸易逆差,巩固了美元的全球霸权地位,促进了美国的经济增长。由于美国存在对强势美元政策的依赖性及美元的全球霸权地位没有受到实质性的挑战,在可预见的将来,美国仍将实行强势美元政策。     

金融危机对美元国际地位的影响探析

2008年下半年,始于美国的次贷危机逐渐恶化为金融危机,并蔓延至全球。期间,美元一改前期颓势大幅升值,其主要原因是美国政府救市、外部资金回流美国等。但2009年年初至年中,美元总体又呈贬值趋势,这主要是由美联储实施量化宽松政策等原因所造成。鉴于美国拥有独一无二的综合国力、取代美元地位的货币尚不成熟等原因,金融危机不会改变美元在国际货币体系中的地位,但其将打击各国持有美元资产的信心,增加美元国际地位被侵蚀的风险。     

国际储备货币欧元与美元的比较

现行的国际货币体系已然不如从前稳定,金融危机的爆发触动了美元的霸主地位,欧元的崛起似乎对其地位产生了更大威胁.作为重要的国际储备货币,欧元虽然已经具备一些优势,然而要撼动美元的霸主地位,其实力还显得不足.不过改革现行的国际货币体系已成为必然,改变美元独大的外汇储备格局已成为必然,欧元的出现将加快全球外汇资产继续向其他货币分散部署的步伐,在一定程度上改善了美元的单极储备格局.     

欧元与美元国际竞争力分析

尽管欧元上市后运行状况高开低走，总体上对美元疲软，但它的启动势必掀起欧元和美元的国际地位之争。欧元的真正价值决不应该仅看汇率，考察其内在价值应以欧元区物价稳定与否和经济运行状况为准。未来随着欧美差距的缩小，欧盟实力的增强，欧元区渴望扩张，而美元随着纳指下跌，股市调整，浮盘清出和美国政府采取的一系列旨在刺激美国经济的措施的实施，其通过硬度仍在保持。两大货币将在经济的融合中竞争。     

可耻的美元

写下这题目,先解释两句。所谓可耻的美元,说的并非美元,而是躲在美元背后操纵美元的人,即美国政府和美国利益的忠实代表,美联储。这二位可耻在哪里呢?可耻在它们只顾自己利益而置世界各国利益于不顾,于前不久悍然推出第二轮量化宽     

Wages,government policy and unemployment

The argument of this article is easily stated if the propositions of historical materialism are true the feasibility of socialism is seriously in doubt. Section 1 outlines what is meant by historial materialism and Section II considers the work of Marx on the development of socialism. The following three sections analyse the work of socialist economists and their critics during the twentieth century. In the conclusion our overall argument is summarized.     

Index-linked government bonds and the efficiency of monetary policy

This essay considers James Tobin's suggestion that the introduction of index-linked government bonds could make monetary policy more efficient. A macroeconomic model incorporating a given state of expectations and uncertainty is used to show that there should be no systematic difference between the effects of a given monetary policy shift in a regime in which government bonds are index-linked and in a regime in which government bonds are nominal. Monetary policy could have different effects in the two regimes when the model is complicated to allow the monetary policy shift to generate changes in the state of expectations and uncertainty; even so, it is impossible to say a priori in which regime monetary policy would be more efficient.     

沉淀成本与政府管制政策

新古典一般均衡理论的假设前提是完全的产品和要素市场,这是一个没有沉淀成本的经济模型。一旦我们放松新古典经济学资源流动性的假设前提,引入沉淀成本概念,就会发现,沉淀成本不仅导致要素市场失灵,造成进入壁垒,而且还为政府管制奠定了理论指导。为了提高市场绩效,政府管制必须将沉淀成本管制（进入壁垒）、产权管制（外部性）和信息不完全管制（交易成本）有机结合起来。     

Theories of the firm, competitive advantage and government policy

To improve the effectiveness of government policy, it is necessay to develop a good picture of what a firms in a knowledge-intensive economy is and does. In this paper, we have drawn on the recent surge of books and articles on the resource- and knowledge-based theories of the firm and their implications for competitive advantage. We would like to contribute to that discussion summarizing that debate and exploring the implications for government policy. In new theories of the firm, emphasis is placed on the crucial importance of knowledge, a production factor which is not easily imitated. Exampb of government policy which are based on these new inskhts are the recognition of the importance of demanding clients, the emphasis on the unique potential of the local business environment and the stimulation of transfer of knowledge between firms and networks instead of subsidizing project for knowledge development in isolated firms. A more realistic view of business behaviour will improve the effectiveness of policy, thereby generally improving the competitive position of firms.     

Analyzing the effect of advanced agriculture development policy

This paper broadens the scope of current theoretical studies, divides rural agriculture into two sectors—advanced and traditional, and takes into consideration the land factor and the urban informal sector. Under the assumption that wages in the advanced agricultural sector are higher than in the traditional agricultural sector, this paper analyzes the effect of policies to promote advanced agricultural development with the comparative static method. The main conclusions of this paper are: wage subsidization of the advanced agricultural sector, in addition to having the same economic impact as interest subsidies on the advanced agricultural sector, could also increase the land employment in the advanced agricultural sector and reduce that in the traditional agricultural sector. Therefore, the effect of wage subsidizing policies is stronger than that of interest subsidies, while land rent subsidies for the advanced agricultural sector have the same economic effect as wage subsidies.     

An endogenous policy model of hierarchical government

Endogenous policy models usually neglect that government policies are frequently the result of decisions taken at different tiers by different agents, each enjoying some degree of autonomy. In this paper, policies are the outcome of the choices made by two agents within a hierarchy. A legislator decides on the budget to be successively spent by a bureaucrat. Both agents are lobbied by one or two interest groups. The combination of sequential decisionmaking and lobbying implies that the interaction between the agent at one tier and the interest group(s) depends on the exchange between the same interest group(s) and the agent at the other tier. Our results concerning multi-tier lobbying and legislatorial oversight substantially qualify the conventional wisdom related to one-tier lobbying. In particular, the reaction of the legislator to lobbying at the bureaucratic tier may make lobbying wasteful even when there is no competition from other lobbies. Moreover, the legislator benefits from lobbying only when there is competition between interest groups at the upper tier. It is also shown that competition for influence at the bureaucratic tier may work as a perfect substitute for legislatorial oversight. Extensions of the model indicate its usefulness for the analysis of decisionmaking in other multilevel governance structures, like federations or firms.     

Would adopting the Australian dollar provide superior monetary policy in New Zealand?

Counterfactual experiments with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's core model provide some insight into the implications for New Zealand's economic performance over the 1990s, had it credibly fixed its currency to the Australian dollar. If New Zealand had faced the relatively more stimulatory Australian monetary conditions prevailing over the 1990s, then output growth may have been temporarily boosted. However, demand pressures would have probably been greater and inflation higher. In particular, results suggest that over the latter part of the 1990s annual inflation would have been approximately 1% point higher on average. Stochastic simulation experiments provide a vehicle to analyse what the implications of currency union might be more generally. Results suggest that if New Zealand were to lose its ability to set monetary policy independent of that set in Australia, then the variability of inflation and output would increase over the business cycle.     

Educational expansion,government policy and wage compression

The main objective is to measure the elasticity in the response of relative wages by education to relative supplies of educated labour. Using rigorously comparable urban wage-labour market surveys, an econometric comparison is made of Kenya and Tanzania — countries which constitute a natural experiment, having different secondary education policies but being similar in other relevant respects. Post-primary educational expansion, as Kenya, is an effective means of compressing wages. However, the Tanzanian scarcity premium on post-primary education is held down by the alternative means of public sector pay policy. The analysis suggests an important role for occupation in the wage adjustment process.