Housing-Market Segmentation and Demand for Housing Attributes: Some Empirical Findings

In this paper, we have empirically estimated demand equations for housing attributes, using a two-step approach in conformity with the procedure proposed by Sherwin Rosen. The identification problem inherent in Rosen's procedure has been avoided by estimating separate equations for distinct market segments in the first step. The estimates of the demand functions obtained in the second step are consistent with theoretical expectations.     

Tax Limits and Housing Markets: Some Evidence at the State Level

Property tax limitations, as well as other tax and expenditure restrictions on state and local governments in the United States, date back to the late 19th century. A surge in property tax limitation legislation occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and its effects on government revenue, school financing and educational quality have been studied extensively. However, there is surprisingly little literature on how property tax limits affect housing markets. For the first time, we examine the impacts of property tax limitations on housing growth, in addition to their impacts on housing prices. Using state‐level data over 23 years, we find that property tax limits increase housing prices (indexes) by approximately 2%. Property tax limits appear to have little impact on the growth in the housing stock, but education spending limits reduce the number of building permits by over 6%. Our indirect evidence suggests that the number of housing units may grow when property tax limits are accompanied by increases in other own‐source revenues to state government.     

Housing Adjustment Costs: Their Impact on Mobility and Housing Demand Elasticities

The role of housing adjustment costs in influencing mobility decisions, and the relationship between these and housing demands is not well understood. Here we try to examine how changes in adjustment costs as well as in such demand factors as income, influence the decision of households to adjust their housing consumption through moving. Empirically, we use a sample of recently moving homeowners from the PSID and provide evidence indicating adjustment costs are more important than other demand factors in influencing mobility decisions. We also argue that sample selection may bias estimates of housing demand elasticities when the sample is restricted to recent movers because the influence of adjustment costs in the mobility decision are not accounted for. Testing for this using the Heckman two-stage procedure, however, showed this was not a significant problem.     

Housing and the Economy: Popular Myths

This paper identifies and tries to clarify the effects of a number of changes in the system of delivering mortgage credit and housing subsidies. First, we examine the trends in housing and mortgage market data and policy. This review highlights the perceived relationships of these sectors to the rest of the economy. We then focus on and develop the relationship between four issues that have been fundamental stumbling blocks to the development of effective policy. The issues are: (1) homeownership affordability, (2) measures of housing needs, (3) the costs of cycles in housing production, and (4) the effects of federal mortgage credit programs.     

Introduction: Deregulation and Reform of Housing and Housing Finance Markets: Recent Lessons from Western and Central Europe

Recent years have seen the emergence of substantial scholarly research devoted to cross-national comparisons of real estate markets and financial institutions. In part, these analyses evaluate real estate market efficiency and the distributional outcomes associated with diverse institutions and economies. Further, these analyses draw from the experience of different markets and institutions in a normative sense, so as to help facilitate the development of appropriate real estate market mechanisms and policy in emerging market economies.     

2001～2005年部分国际大石油公司成品油销售量分项统计

资料来源:各公司年报道达尔公司类别20012002200320042005总计343.4338.0365.2377.1388.5分地区欧洲273.6260.4274.4269.3274.2非洲24.926.928.230.633.6美洲32.036.652.560.562.3中东5.45.96.06.56.9亚洲6.16.72.97.38.7其他地区1.41.51.22.92.8分品种液化石油气9.910.311.414.014.6汽油82.182.895.796.796.5航空煤油27.226.426.827.631.1柴油和取暖油137.3144.5153.5159.6159.7燃料油57.648.545.146.349.6润滑油3.13.22.93.13.1溶剂油3.72.92.93.13.2沥青6.56.36.66.25.7其他16.013.120.320.525.0(郑玲玲刘雪梅提供)皇家荷兰壳牌集团类别2…     

论住房制度改革及住房保障的发展

通过系统的回顾我国住房制度改革的发展历史,以及对住房市场和住房保障两条发展路线的梳理,结合福利经济学的观点,提出住房保障是住房市场的必要补充,是对社会财富合理再分配的观点.提出了住房保障应当与住房市场相互协调,住房保障的规模要与经济发展水平、社会发展阶段相适应的相互发展关系.     

Forecasting Housing Markets: Lessons Learned

Forecasting changes in housing finance (instruments and institutions), housing demand (tenure, quantity, and real price), and housing production requires forecasting numerous exogenous factors—inflation, government policy, and demographic forces being the most obvious—and interpreting their impacts on the housing market. We use forecasts made over the last two decades to illustrate the importance of these variables and of interpreting their impacts appropriately.     

Expected and Actual Effects of Housing Allowances on Housing Prices

Most analysts and policy makers expected fullscale housing allowance programs to substantially disturb local housing markets, causing housing prices tb increase sharply. This paper reviews conjectures about expected price effects, summarizes evidence from the Housing Assistance Supply Experiment, and explains why the program did not engender the expected price inflation.     

Housing and the Weather

Monthly readings on housing construction and sales that are at odds with expectations are often attributed to unusual weather conditions. This paper examines the empirical relationship between weather abnormalities and housing activity. The conclusion is that unseasonable weather patterns have, at most, a slight impact on total housing starts, home sales, and the pace of construction activity. Even this weak effect is found only during the winter months. Sampling error accounts for much more of the month-to-month changes in measured housing activity than does the weather, and there is a general tendency to exaggerate the influence of unusual weather on the monthly national housing data.     

Alternative Housing Price Indices: An Evaluation

This paper reports on research in which eleven alternative housing price indices are constructed for two Vancouver neighbourhoods for the period from 1957 to 1979. Three criteria for good indices are presented, and the eleven indices, as well as several government and industry indices are evaluated in accordance with those criteria. It is determined that, almost surprisingly, an index based on mean sales values performs well, as do several of the hedonic price equation based indices. Several policy implications of the analysis are then discussed.     

Housing Price Forecastability: A Factor Analysis

We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS) and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future movements in housing prices. We find that (S)PLS models systematically dominate PCA models. (S)PLS models also generate significant out‐of‐sample predictive power over and above the predictive power contained by the price–rent ratio, autoregressive benchmarks and regression models based on small datasets.     

Indicators of Local Housing Affordability: Comparative and Spatial Approaches

This paper focuses on the measurement of local housing affordability problems. A number of different housing market indicators are offered that help identify the magnitude and nature of housing affordability problems and their geographic distribution. This interest is prompted by the predominance of housing affordability problems and the severity of the problems for many of the lowest income renter households. In addition, there is significant policy interest in "the national goal that every American family be able to afford a decent home in a suitable environment" (National Affordable Housing Act of 1990). This paper develops measures of the spatial distribution of affordability problems and implements measures of the mismatch between the demand and supply of housing affordable to the lowest income households.