Accounting,organizations & institutions. Essays in honour of Anthony Hopwood

In this article we discuss the motivation for and role of theory in management accounting. We argue that theories in an applied field such as management accounting research should provide explanations that are useful for those we study – managers, organizations and society. We evaluate the nature of theories currently used and developed. Those theories that are considered theories by the research community are largely imported from other disciplines, but have hardly anything that makes them unique to management accounting. Those theories that are not currently regarded as theories by many of our colleagues attempt to explain how to apply management accounting to achieve superior performance. We argue that both forms of theories, at present, largely fail to provide valid support for practitioners. We contend that management accounting theory should help us to answer questions of what kind of management accounting systems we should apply, how, in what circumstances, and how to change them. We provide suggestions on how management accounting research could proceed to produce better theories in this regard.     

Introduction of International Accounting Standards,Disclosure Quality and Accuracy of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts

We examine whether the introduction of international accounting standards by German companies has improved the accuracy of analysts' forecasts, and what role changes in the quality of disclosures have played in this process. We develop a structural equation model that allows us to separate the effects of changes in disclosure quality from other effects of the introduction of international accounting standards on forecast errors. Our sample comprises 1,908 firm-years covering the period from 1997 to 2005. We measure disclosure quality with data from a yearly annual-report competition. We find that the introduction of international accounting standards has been associated with a significant improvement in forecast accuracy. Increases in the quality of companies' disclosures appear to have contributed to this improvement. However, the disclosure effect, while significant, explains only a small portion of the overall improvement in forecast accuracy. Further analyses show that differences in disclosure quality are more relevant for German GAAP companies than for IFRS/US GAAP companies. Moreover, only the quality of notes to companies' financial statements appears to matter to analysts; the quality of management reports appears to make no difference. Our results are robust to a variety of tests concerning the sample composition, the operationalisation of variables and the estimation procedure.     

Analysts' Forecasts in Asian-Pacific Markets: The Relationship among Macroeconomic Factors, Accounting Systems, Bias and Accuracy

In this study, we describe determinants of accuracy/bias of analysts' forecasts in 13 economies of the Asian‐Pacific region. Examination of the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts allows us to judge how accounting systems and macroeconomic distinctions in this region affect earnings predictability. As many investors rely on analysts' earnings forecasts instead of producing their own, the growth of international investment means forecasts in non‐US markets will become increasingly important to investors worldwide. Using a sample of firms with data available on Global Vantage and I/B/E/S International, we find that the analysts on average have a pessimistic bias in Asian‐Pacific markets. We examine whether macroeconomic factors explain part of the difference in the size of analyst forecast errors, using the global competitiveness rankings of the World Economic Forum (WEF). We expect that those nations which are more open to foreign trade and investment and are ranked more highly by the WEF in its Global Competitiveness Index will also have more accurate analyst forecasts, as increased global competitiveness demands greater integration into the world economy, and such integration should lead to more transparent financial statements and more accurate earnings forecasts. Our findings are consistent with this prediction. We also find that countries with low book‐tax conformity have more accurate earnings forecasts.     

Research and Development,Uncertainty, and Analysts’ Forecasts: The Case of IAS 38

This study analyzes the consequences of the capitalization of development expenditures under IAS 38 on analysts’ earnings forecasts. We use unique hand‐collected data in a sample of highly research and development (R&D)‐intensive German‐listed firms over the period 2000–2007. We find that the capitalization of development costs is significantly associated with both higher individual analysts’ forecast errors and forecast dispersion. This suggests that the increasing complexity surrounding the capitalization of development costs negatively impacts forecast accuracy. However, for firms with high underlying environmental uncertainty, forecast errors are negatively associated with capitalized development expenditures. This indicates that the negative impact of increased complexity on forecast accuracy can be outweighed by the information contained in the signals from capitalized development costs when the underlying environmental uncertainty is high. The findings contribute to the ongoing controversial debate on the accounting for self‐generated intangible assets. Our results provide useful insights on the link between capitalization of development costs, environmental uncertainty, and analysts’ forecasts for accounting academics and practitioners alike.     

克鲁格曼的预言

昨天的新闻,就是今天的历史. 　　克鲁格曼的评论文集<克鲁格曼的预言>,原名"我们在新世纪的迷失",主要收录了他2000～2003年在<纽约时报>上的专栏文章.这些文章距今已经几年,但现在回头来看仍没有过时,历史更是为它们增加了醇厚感.……     

Cost Accounting,Ethical Accountability,and Accounting Principles

This essay explains why cost accounting, ethical accountability, and accounting principles are interrelated concepts. During the past two decades, the relationship between accounting systems and discharge of accountability has increasingly drawn the attention of researchers. However, researchers have shown a marginal interest in the inclusion and examination of the theme of cost accounting, and in particular, no interest has been oriented to explore the potential role of cost accounting in serving presentation of the trustful cost information as regards the discharge of accountability. In this essay, we will reason that the traditional discourse of cost accounting is fundamentally different from the managerial discourse of cost accounting. The traditional cost accounting is built upon the ethical, legal, professional, and principle-based discourses. By exploring the differences between the two cost accounting discourses, this essay will reduce the effect of current skeptical views with which quality of our academic education, relevance of our research, and our understanding of the potential role of cost accounting in serving the provision and presentation of trustful information have been seriously undermined.     

声音

2022年,工信部将着力提振制造业投资。对"十四五"规划已确定的工业和信息化领域重点工程项目,具备条件的尽早启动实施。鼓励支持企业加大投入,引导金融机构加大对企业数字化、绿色化改造的支持力度。——日前,工业和信息化部部长肖亚庆接受记者采访时表示。     

Local Adaptive Multiplicative Error Models for High‐Frequency Forecasts

We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating time‐varying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing procedure. A data‐driven optimal length of local windows is selected, yielding adaptive forecasts at each point in time. Analysing 1‐minute cumulative trading volumes of five large NASDAQ stocks in 2008, we show that local windows of approximately 3 to 4 hours are reasonable to capture parameter variations while balancing modelling bias and estimation (in)efficiency. In forecasting, the proposed adaptive approach significantly outperforms a MEM where local estimation windows are fixed on an ad hoc basis. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discussion of paper by H. Li & G.S. Maddala

Some comments are made concerning variations on the bootstrap methods in the paper.     

Quantile Aggregation of Density Forecasts

Quantile aggregation (or ‘Vincentization’) is a simple and intuitive way of combining probability distributions, originally proposed by S.B. Vincent in 1912. In certain cases, such as under Gaussianity, the Vincentized distribution belongs to the same family as that of the individual distributions and it can be obtained by averaging the individual parameters. This article compares the properties of quantile aggregation with those of the forecast combination schemes normally adopted in the econometric forecasting literature, based on linear or logarithmic averages of the individual densities. Analytical results and Monte Carlo experiments indicate that the properties of quantile aggregation are between those of the linear and the logarithmic pool. Larger differences among the combination schemes occur when there are biases in the individual forecasts: in that case quantile aggregation seems preferable on the whole. The practical usefulness of Vincentization is illustrated empirically in the context of linear forecasting models for Italian GDP and quantile predictions of euro area inflation.