从中美经济相互依存看我国高额外汇储备管理

美债危机爆发后,中国作为美国在海外最大的债券持有者仍然不得不继续增持美债,一方面是由于人民币汇率长期与美元挂钩,国际贸易和金融交易主要以美元结算以及我国出口导向型经济增长方式短期内无法改变均导致外汇储备被动积累,另一方面更是因为一旦我国大规模减持美元资产,将引起全球外汇市场对美元的恐慌性抛售,并最终危及我国在美金融资产安全。美债危机表明我国经济对美国高度依赖,并凸显了经济增长方式转变以及对高额外汇储备有效管理的重要性与紧迫性。     

美国国际投资头寸的规模与结构变迁

20世纪80年代以来,美国的对外债权和对外债务相对快速增长,由于对外债务的增速快于对外债权的增速,形成了庞大的美国国际投资净债务头寸,美国已经由一个对外净债权国演变成一个对外净债务国,而且对外净债务还在急速膨胀。美国政府部门对外净债务是美国对外净债务头寸的主要构成部分,外国政府部门则持有大部分对美国的净债券,正是庞大的美国政府财政赤字造成了美国的对外净债务,也正是外国政府部门持有的外汇储备支撑了美国政府的财政赤字。     

What went wrong? The Puerto Rican debt crisis,the “Treasury Put,” and the failure of market discipline

What went wrong? Why did seemingly rational, forward-looking bond investors continue to purchase Puerto Rican debt with only a modest risk premium? Why did financial markets fail to exercise market discipline and restrict capital flows to Puerto Rico?This paper examines the hypothesis that investors believed Puerto Rican debt was implicitly insured by the U.S. government by studying a rare situation where this “Treasury Put” was extinguished. The expectation of a federal bailout was perfectly reasonable given past behavior by the federal government. Evaluating the Treasury Put hypothesis with a minimal set of assumptions is possible given three unique features of the economic environment. The key feature is an exogenous “seismic shock” – the non-bailout of the city of Detroit in 2013 that effectively extinguished the Treasury Put, estimated in this paper as 350 basis points. Institutional reforms that would eliminate the Treasury Put are considered, but none are found satisfactory. How to extinguish the Treasury Put on an ongoing basis in a democratic society remains an open question.     

Household Response to Government Debt: Evidence from Life Insurance Holdings

We use state‐level panel data on life insurance in force in the United States and find that a $1 increase in government debt, at either the state or federal level is associated with a $0.96 increase in the face value of the average life insurance holdings per capita for a household in the average state. This increase represents an intention to save that would almost completely offset the government debt in specific states of the world (i.e., if the insured dies). Because this state of the world is rare, the immediate increase in actual savings is only about $0.03, the cost of the additional insurance. We find, in addition, that this response occurs mainly on the intensive margin, meaning that the size of the average life insurance policy increases when government debt increases. Along the extensive margin, we find the number of policies in force falls slightly with federal debt, and rises slightly with state debt increases. The results show altruistic planning in response to changes in government debt that are consistent with Ricardian Equivalence and the long‐run neutrality of government debt.     

Is ERM Legally Required? Yes for Financial and Governmental Institutions,No for Private Enterprises

We examine whether enterprise risk management (ERM) is legally required for financial institutions (e.g., banks, securities brokerage firms, insurance, hedge funds and mutual funds), government entities, publicly traded companies, and private enterprises. We find that ERM is legally required for U.S. financial institutions and for some government‐sponsored enterprises. Legally required means required by U.S. statutes, federal case law, or U.S. regulatory agencies (e.g., Securities and Exchange Commission [SEC]). ERM is an important factor for rating organizations (e.g., Standard & Poor's [S&P]), but not legally required. We found no U.S. statutes or federal court cases requiring an ERM framework for private enterprises, although ERM is accepted as a value‐contributing best practice, and elements of ERM are practiced by some private enterprises. For publically traded companies, elements of ERM are required by federal statute, by the SEC, and by S&P. We suggest that if a private enterprise is sued in U.S. federal court alleging breach of a legal duty to practice ERM, the suit will likely be dismissed. We trace the development of ERM from a traditional risk management (TRM) base. Fortunately, ERM is recognized as a value‐contributing best practice in corporate governance even when legal standards do not require it.     

美国巨额政府债务的成因分析

金融危机后,美国政府债务迅速膨胀,本文深入剖析了美国政府债务的成因。一方面源于财政赤字的增加、经济增速放缓以及美元独特的货币地位,另一方面美国债务问题不仅是金融问题,其背后更是两党政治的博弈以及不同经济思想的碰撞,这也是造成巨额债务形成的深层原因。     

Financial Frictions,Investment Delay,and Asset Market Interventions

We construct a dynamic macro model to incorporate financial frictions and investment delay. Investment is undertaken by entrepreneurs who face liquidity frictions in the equity market and a collateral constraint in the debt market. After calibrating the model to the U.S. data, we quantitatively examine how aggregate activity is affected by a shock to equity liquidity and a shock to entrepreneurs' borrowing capacity. We then analyze the effectiveness of government interventions in the asset market after such financial shocks. In particular, we compare the effects of government purchases of private equity and of private debt in the open market. In addition, we examine how these effects of government interventions depend on the option to delay investment.     

Debt Specialization

This paper examines debt structure using a new and comprehensive database on types of debt employed by public U.S. firms. We find that 85% of the sample firms borrow predominantly with one type of debt, and the degree of debt specialization varies widely across different subsamples—large rated firms tend to diversify across multiple debt types, while small unrated firms specialize in fewer types. We suggest several explanations for why debt specialization takes place, and show that firms employing few types of debt have higher bankruptcy costs, are more opaque, and lack access to some segments of the debt markets.     

从美国成本会计准则看我国军事采购成本会计准则的构建

美国联邦政府采购成本会计准则建立的根本原因在于美国联邦政府采购中成本类型合同的使用.其与我国军事采购过程中成本类型合同的使用相似.为加强我国军事采购合同成本的管理,有必要构建我国军事采购成本会计准则,而美国联邦政府采购成本会计准则涵盖的内容、豁免条款和范围层次的使用,以及披露报表的编报,对于建立我国军事采购成本会计准则具有积极的借鉴意义.     

Using Financial Accounting Data to Examine the Effect of Foreign Operations Located in Tax Havens and Other Countries on U.S. Multinational Firms' Tax Rates

This paper investigates the effect tax havens and other foreign jurisdictions have on the income tax rates of multinational firms based in the United States. We develop a new regression methodology using financial accounting data to estimate the average worldwide, federal, and foreign tax rates on worldwide, federal, and foreign pretax book income for a large sample of U.S. firms with and without tax haven operations. We find that on average U.S. firms that disclosed material operations in at least one tax haven country have a worldwide tax burden on worldwide income that is approximately 1.5 percentage points lower than firms without operations in at least one tax haven country. Our results also show that U.S. firms face a 4.4% current federal tax rate on foreign income whether or not they have tax haven operations. Finally, we find that U.S. firms with operations in some tax haven countries have higher federal tax rates on foreign income than other firms. This result suggests that in some cases, tax haven operations may increase U.S. tax collections at the expense of foreign country tax collections.     

The Leveraging of Corporate America: A Long‐Run Perspective on Changes in Capital Structure

In a study published recently in the Journal of Financial Economics, the authors of this article documented a substantial increase in the use of debt financing by U.S. companies over the past century. From 1920 until the mid‐1940s, the aggregate leverage of unregulated U.S. companies was low and stable, with the average debt‐to‐capital ratio staying within the narrow range of 10% to 15%. But during the next 25 years, the use of debt by U.S. companies more than doubled, rising to 35% of total capital. And since 1970, aggregate leverage has remained above 35%, peaking at 47% in 1992. Moreover, this pattern has been observed in companies of all sizes and operating in all unregulated sectors. Changes in the characteristics of U.S. public companies during this period provide little help in explaining the increase in corporate leverage. For example, the displacement of tangible by intangible assets in many sectors of the U.S. economy during the past 50 years would have led most economists to predict, holding all other things equal, a reduction rather than an increase in aggregate corporate leverage. Instead, according to the authors' findings, the main contributors to the increases in U.S. corporate leverage since the 1940s have been external changes, including increases in corporate income tax rates, the development of financial markets and intermediaries, and the reduction in government borrowing in the decades following World War II. The authors' analysis also identifies these last two changes—the development of financial markets, including the rise of institutional investors and shareholder activism, and the post‐War reduction in government debt—as having played the biggest roles in the leveraging of corporate America.     

美国联邦政府财务报告编制与审计研究

上世纪90年代开始的美国联邦政府财务报告编制与审计改革是联邦政府加强财务管理的一项重要内容。经过多次改革,形成了以权责发生制为主要会计计量基础的联邦政府财务报告体系,和以审计署的外部审计与监察长办公室的内部审计相结合的联邦政府财务报告审计模式。当前这种财务报告体系与审计模式仍处于发展与完善过程中,需不断改进财务信息质量和强化审计的作用。     

Cross-Jurisdictional Income Shifting by U.S. Multinationals: Evidence from International Bond Offerings

We examine whether tax incentives influence where U.S. multinationals locate their interest deductions worldwide. Our sample includes international bond offerings by U.S. multinationals during 1987–1997 denominated in the currencies of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, or the United Kingdom. Our results suggest that U.S. multinationals' debt location decisions take into account the effect of jurisdiction-specific tax-loss carryforwards and binding foreign tax credit limitations on the value of debt tax shields. Our results are also consistent with U.S. multinationals locating interest deductions in different tax jurisdictions as a mechanism to achieve tax-motivated income shifting.     

Public corruption and the allocation of government contracts

Public corruption in the government procurement process is rampant and its cost is huge, even among developed countries. Some scholars estimate that about 20%–30% of the values of government projects are lost due to public corruption. In this paper, we examine how public corruption impacts the allocation of U.S. federal contracts. Using the U.S. Department of Justice corruption convictions data and the federal contract data from 2000 to 2018, we find that firms located in more corrupt states receive more federal contract dollars, more important contracts in terms of their contributions to firm revenues, and contracts with higher visibility among federal contractors. We construct an influence/favoritism index that takes into account defense contracts, cost-plus contracts, and multi-year contracts, and document that the index is positively related to corruption levels. These results hold after we conduct several robustness tests, including 2SLS regressions, propensity-score matching analysis, and using alternative corruption measures. Our empirical findings are consistent with the hypothesis that corruption plays an important role in how federal contracts are allocated.     

Formulaic Transparency: The Hidden Enabler of Exceptional U.S. Securitization

Why does the securitization of residential mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, and other such consumer debt in the U.S. exceed the securitization of such debt in Europe by several trillion dollars? The author points out that lemon problems do not stop the sale of used cars but they do prevent the operation of a market in which buyers place sight‐unseen bids for used cars offered by unknown sellers. Buyers prefer to know who the seller is and test‐drive vehicles. Similarly until the 1980s, creditors were willing to forgo the information they could secure in private transactions to get tradability mainly in the case of bonds issued by governments or a few blue‐chip companies. U.S. government policy encouraged the securitization of trillions of dollars of loans made to millions of borrowers. U.S. rules—rather than new financial or information technologies—have strongly encouraged originators of mortgages and other consumer loans to rely on credit scores (commonly referred to as FICO scores) produced by credit bureaus. And reliance on scores that loan originators use but don’t produce helps overcome the information asymmetry problems that would otherwise constrain securitization. The argument turns the usual concern about securitization on its head: transferring risks to investors is normally expected to discourage careful screening of borrowers, but the author’s analysis suggests that formulaic, FICO‐based screening actually enables risk transfer by reducing information asymmetry problems. Moreover, while limiting screening reduces the upfront costs of lending, it also increases loans made to uncreditworthy borrowers. And because increasing loans made to bad borrowers raises the rates good borrowers have to pay (to compensate investors for higher defaults), U.S. rules that sacrifice information for more “complete” markets may be a bad bargain.     

Benefit-cost analysis and resource allocation decisions

Concern over the U.S. federal government's deteriorating infrastracture and large budget deficits has recently resulted in much attention being focused on the subject of federal capital expenditures (investments). At the same time, the Office of Management and Budget has recently taken steps to aggressively pursue a policy of requiring federal government managers to use benefit-cost (B-C) analysis techniques in preparing requests for certain types of capital expenditures. More specifically, OBM now requires the use of benefit-cost analysis techniques for major initiatives concerning the acquisition of information technology systems. In this paper it is argued, and empirically verified, that the federal government's use of B-C analysis technique affects the resource allocation process differently at different organizational levels (i.e. different decision strategies are appropriate at different organizational levels).     

Market turbulence creates financing opportunity

The flight to high-quality assets resulting from Standard & Poor's downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating has dropped the yield on U.S. Treasury securities as investors have sought refuge amid uncertain market conditions. Consequently, hospitals can now obtain mortgage insurance from the U.S. government to finance expansions and refinance their debt with GNMA securities at taxable interest rates that are often more favorable than tax-exempt bond fixed rates. Because GNMA certificates can be sold in a forward purchase transaction that locks in a fixed interest rate while avoiding payment of interest until construction funds are disbursed, they can help avoid the effects of negative arbitrage.     

Monetary policy,bond returns and debt dynamics

Using the government׳s intertemporal budget constraint, we quantify the contribution of returns paid on the U.S. government׳s debt portfolio to the evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio. We show that announcements of unconventional monetary policy measures by the Federal Reserve between 2008.IV and 2012, as a part of macroeconomic stabilization, were associated with a sizable increase in returns and debt-to-GDP ratios and contributed to fiscal imbalances. We use the Federal Reserve׳s portfolio composition as a proxy for unconventional monetary policy measures and show that it is significantly related to future bond returns and fiscal balances.     

Empirical evidence on factors significant for employment in government accounting

The primary objective of this study is to investigate the perceptions of government agencies regarding the importance of selected job characteristics in entry-level accountants. We collected our data with a survey instrument which contained detailed questions on appearance, education, extracurricular activities, performance, and personality. Our sample consisted of federal agencies with a known proclivity to hire accounting graduates. In addition, for comparative purposes we also sampled the 11 largest U.S. public accounting firms. We mailed the instrument to both the treatment and the control group of firms. Our results indicated that a number of achievement, personality, and social factors were particularly important to each employer group. Interoccupational comparisons revealed minimal overlap in the factors of particular significance to both federal agency and public accounting firm recruiters. These findings suggest that different knowledge, skills, and personality traits might be crucial to students seeking employment with federal agencies as opposed to large public accounting firms.     

Political rights and the cost of debt

We examine the impact of country-level political rights on the cost of debt for corporate bonds issued by firms incorporated in 39 countries. Similar to, but separate from, the relation for creditor rights, greater political rights are associated with lower yield spreads. A one standard deviation increase in political rights is associated with an 18.6% decline in bond spreads. We find evidence that political and legal institutions are substitutes; marginal improvements in political rights produce greater reductions in the cost of debt for firms from countries with weaker creditor rights. We examine potential factors through which political rights may affect the cost of debt and find that greater freedom of the press provides an important channel for reducing bond risks. Moreover, debt of firms with cross-listed equity trades at a premium in U.S. markets, but this relation appears to be more consistent with improved visibility than with bonding effects.