经济增长和收入分配对农村贫困变动的影响

经济增长和收入分配对农村贫困变动的影响国家统计局办公室盛来运本文旨在宏观的层面上从动态的角度测量中国农村贫困变化，并将这种变化通过模型进行分解，以说明经济增长和收入分配的变化对贫困状况变化的贡献度。在此基础上，简议我国扶贫战略转型的必要性。一、１９８...     

精准扶贫政策对城乡居民收入差距的影响研究——以山西省为例

[目的]实施精准扶贫政策以来,我国共减少贫困人口6 853万人。在脱贫攻坚取得重大进展的背景下,对比政策实施前后城乡居民收入的变化,对于揭示精准扶贫政策的作用具有重要意义。[方法]以贫困范围广、贫困程度深的山西省为对象,基于2010—2017年精准扶贫政策实施前后的统计数据,采用双重差分模型研究不同贫困程度县(区)城乡居民收入差距变化。[结果]精准扶贫政策的效果主要为:贫困县的城乡居民收入差距缩小幅度约为非贫困县的3倍,而其中国家级贫困县的收入差距缩小幅度约为省级贫困县的2倍;共同趋势检验和安慰剂检验的结果验证了模型的稳健性。对比采用最小二乘法(OLS)得到的精准扶贫政策效果,揭示出如果忽略城乡居民收入差距随时间的变化,则会高估精准扶贫政策效果约1.5～4倍,再次证明模型的有效性。通过引入控制变量探讨政策以外的其他影响因素,发现城镇化水平、经济发展水平、第三产业占比、人均农业产值有助于缩小城乡居民收入差距,人均土地状况会扩大城乡居民收入差距,固定资产投资和消费水平的影响不显著。[结论]精准扶贫政策对于缩小城乡居民收入差距具有显著效果,且对深度贫困地区的影响更明显。     

贸易自由化与中国的农业、贫困和公平

本项研究的目标是分析贸易自由化对中国农业及不同地区农民的农业生产(尤其是贫困农民)的影响，重点计论了中国贸易自由化进程和市场干预的变化与内容。利用CAP-SiM模型分析表明，贸易自由化对中国农业的总体影响利大于弊，但是对贫困农户的不利影响要大得多，贸易自由化可能有助于一些地区缓解贫困，但会恶化另一些地区的收入分配，同时会加剧地区内部农户的收入不均现象。     

金融发展对收入贫困的影响及作用机制再检验——基于中介效应模型的实证研究

本文结合中国2010—2016年省际面板数据考察了金融发展对收入贫困的影响及作用机制。研究结论表明:总体而言,金融发展对收入贫困存在非线性的倒U型影响,即金融发展达到一定水平之后才会降低贫困发生率;分地区来看,在包含国家级贫困县的省份,金融发展对收入贫困影响的倒U型趋势更为明显。机制检验表明:金融发展通过经济增长渠道和人力资本积累渠道改善了收入贫困,而金融资源向研发投入水平较高的非贫困地区和非农部门的集聚可能"挤出"贫困人口的资金供给,不利于收入贫困的改善;此外,考察期内,金融体系并未通过影响收入分配而对收入贫困产生影响。本文进一步从金融视角探讨了改善收入贫困的政策启示。     

玉米补贴政策调整对宏观经济的影响*——基于CGE模型的分析

[目的]寻求玉米补贴政策改变对宏观经济和粮食安全的影响,并厘清影响的幅度,寻求玉米政策调整的合理方向。[方法]对现有的中国可计算一般均衡模型进行了改进,引入库存积累、临时存储库存入市、库存销售和顺价机制,加入玉米实物量模块。通过设定政策模拟情景,运用2012年中国投入产出表、农业农村部、中国统计年鉴等资料将数据库进行了更新,对农业部门的玉米补贴减少政策的影响进行了模拟。[结果]降低玉米种植补贴后,玉米种植面积和产量都将改变。短期内,补贴减少将减少财政压力。中长期来看,减少补贴政策将对GDP产生负面影响,且远大于财政补贴减少的幅度。而玉米占经济量的份额很小,玉米相关行业的变化,对宏观经济的影响较弱。[结论]实现去库存、调结构、降低种植面积,进行市场化决策,就要坚持玉米价格市场化改革,注重政策的时效性和针对性,加强信息监测预警。提高政府对玉米市场的宏观调控能力,实施多策并举的政策,有助于实现宏观经济改善,保持农业生产持续健康良好运行。     

中国农村贫困的变化与扶贫政策取向

贫困发生率、贫困深度指数和贫困强度指数是三个相互联系又互相区别的贫困测度标准。本文在系统分析贫困测度指标对扶贫政策取向影响的基础上，采用农村住户抽样调查数据，测算了1985年以来中国农村贫困状态的变化情况。结果表明，近20年来，中国扶贫政策在减少农村贫困人口方面取得了巨大成功，但贫困深度指数和贫困强度指数却更加恶化，不仅剩余贫困人口的平均收入水平更加远离贫困线，而且深度贫困者处于更为相对不利的地位。针对这种变化，本文讨论了改善贫困状况的政策取向。     

农业发展、劳动力转移与农村贫困状态的变化——分地区研究

改革开放以来,中国经济高速增长,农村贫困人口大幅度下降。一般认为总体的经济增长对贫困的改善起着举足轻重的作用。本文认为,一般的经济增长可能大幅度降低贫困发生率,但也可能导致剩余贫困人口的贫困状况更加恶化,而且这种可能的副作用会因地而异。本研究使用贫困发生率、贫困深度和贫困强度作为测度贫困的三个指标,以贫困地区为研究对象并按照农业资源禀赋和农村劳动力转移规模为特征选取两个样本,探索并验证农村地区人均农业收入和非农收入与贫困的三个指标变化影响的内在机制和关系,并提出不同地区扶贫政策取向的建议。     

电子商务进农村政策促进农户链接市场研究——以重庆市为例

[目的]为检验电子商务进农村政策的实施效果,利用重庆市电子商务进农村综合示范县数据,分析其促进农户链接市场的作用机制及效果。[方法]文章在理论构建电子商务进农村政策影响农户市场行为模型基础上,采用双重差分法对其促进农户链接市场效果进行实证研究,并使用替换变量和反事实检验法对结果进行稳健性检验。[结果]电子商务进农村政策对农户链接市场的影响系数在1%的显著水平下具有显著性影响,影响程度在4.4%～5.5%,波动小于1.1%;且替换变量和反事实检验法的稳健性结果表明其对农户链接市场影响的显著性和系数数值没有发生较大变化,结果具有稳健性。[结论]电子商务进农村政策通过提高农户参与市场比例和出售农产品数量促进农户链接市场,减少农村地区及贫困农村地区的自然环境和社会经济约束,提高农业商品化率,增加农户收入,利于农村地区和贫困地区的减困脱贫。     

城乡人口流动能否打破贫困代际传递?

我国流动人口子代能否摆脱贫困的桎梏,对于我国巩固脱贫成果与衔接乡村振兴有重要的现实意义。文章基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2013年、2015年以及2017年的跟踪数据,使用代际收入弹性模型进行测量,为了弥补已有研究仅仅关注到的父代和子代的影响因素,引入家庭整体的视角来探讨代际间贫困的传递,旨在探索贫困代际传递好转的具体实施路径。研究结果表明:流动人口的贫困代际传递程度呈现逐年下降的趋势;子代层与家庭层的影响因素共计对代际收入传递提供了16.79%的贡献率,其中最重要的传播路径为家庭层的发展享受型消费;家庭层的影响因素对男性的影响较大而对女性的影响较小;对城镇流动人口的影响相比农村流动人口更大。基于上述研究,应加强对流动人口的家庭消费类型、家庭创业、家庭负债等方面的帮助和政策引导,以期实现长久的脱贫和稳定。     

粮食政策对主产区贫困户收入影响的实证研究*——基于冀鲁豫农户调研数据

［目的］粮食主产区农民收入的稳定增长直接影响种粮积极性,与粮食稳定供给有着密切关系,深入分析粮食政策对主产区农户特别是贫困户的影响对于评价和完善粮食政策及促进贫困户增收有着现实意义。［方法］利用粮食主产区冀鲁豫3省的农户实地调研数据,采用分位数回归方法基于国家贫困标准和国际贫困标准实证分析粮食政策对贫困户和非贫困户人均收入的影响。［结果］粮食主产区贫困户具有多维贫困的特征,提高政策价格水平和增加补贴收入均有助于贫困户收入增长,但销售渠道对贫困户和非贫困户人均收入的影响均不显著; 从缩小农户收入差距来看,增加补贴收入比提高政策价格水平对于主产区贫困户脱贫的作用更为显著。［结论］因此,粮食主产区农户的扶贫政策需进一步地由收入贫困转向多维贫困,结合其他多种政策措施制定更有针对性的扶贫政策,充分发挥非农就业对农民增收的促进作用,注重贫困农民人力资本的积累和素质的提升,进一步增强农业信贷的可得性和便利性,支持发展主要粮食作物政策性保险。     

Role of income diversification in reducing forest reliance: Evidence from 1838 rural households in China

Among a number of households worldwide, forest use and income diversification have been seen as substitute livelihood strategies: farmers with more diverse income sources face a higher opportunity cost in harvesting forests and so tend to rely less on forestry resources. The current study uses rural household survey data captured in the Chinese provinces of Fujian, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi. It applies a Heckman regression model and a quantile regression model to determine the effect of income diversification on forest dependence. The three main findings of this study are as follows. (1) The mean income diversification index values in Fujian, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi are 1.81, 1.46, 1.63, and 2.00, respectively; this indicates that livelihood activities within the study areas are limited. (2) When the income diversification index increases by 10%, the proportion of forest income to total income within the study areas decreases by 4–8%; this indicates that income diversification can significantly reduce a household's dependence on forest resources, especially among the poorest households. (3) For the top 20% of high-income households, the effect of income diversification on forest dependence is insignificant, but for the bottom 20% of low-income households, income diversification has a major impact in terms of reducing their forest reliance (6–10%). The findings of this study will help inform the design of alternative policies that could alleviate pressure relating to forest-resource protection.     

农民人均纯收入与农业生产结构的关系研究

基于改革开放以来的宏观数据,运用SVAR模型主要进行脉冲响应分析、方差分析。结果显示,农民人均纯收入与农业生产结构的几个指标之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,农业(种植业)产值对农民人均纯收入的影响最大,农民人均纯收入对农业生产结构变动的响应具有一定的滞后性。因此,提出转变发展思想,以工业的形式发展农业;推进产业改革,调优农业生产结构;调整产业政策,增添农民人均纯收入增长动力。     

INCOME ELASTICITIES OF DEMANDS FOR FOODS IN GREAT BRITAIN

This paper describes analysis of data from the National Food Survey to determine the influences of household income and composition on household demand for foods in 1974, 1979, 1980 and 1982. The paper focuses on fats, cheese and carcase meats. The analysis uses household level data, regarding zero expenditures as arising because of infrequent purchasing and the expenditure-income relationship used in the Almost Ideal Demand Model. This is in contrast with the analysis reported by the National Food Survey Committee which uses a constant elasticity model and averaged income and expenditure data.     

Urban water demand with fixed volumetric charging in a large municipality: the case of Brisbane,Australia*

This paper uses suburb‐level quarterly data to model residential water demand in Brisbane, Australia, from 1998 to 2003. In this system, residential consumption is charged using a fixed annual service fee with no water entitlement followed by a fixed volumetric charge per kilolitre. Water demand is specified as average quarterly household water consumption and the demand characteristics include the marginal price of water, household income and size, and the number of rainy and warm days. The findings not only confirm residential water as price and income inelastic, but also that the price and income elasticity of demand in owner‐occupied households is higher than in rented households. The results also show that weather, particularly summer months and the number of rainy days, exerts a strong influence on residential water consumption.     

Did the Key Priority Forestry Programs affect income inequality in rural China?

The Natural Forest Protection Program, the Sloping Land Conversion Program and the Desertification Combating Program around Beijing and Tianjing have been gradually launched since 1998 for ecosystem restoration. A large number of rural households have been enrolled in these programs, and the Government of China has designed different polices for these programs, such as subsidies and forbidden or restricted uses. How and how much these programs and policies have affected rural households’ inequality are urgent questions to be answered. The paper used a unique panel data of 1458 sample rural households from 15 counties in China to examine the direct and overall contributions of the Key Priority Forestry Programs (KPFPs) to rural households’ total income inequality. A fixed-effects model was used to estimate the impact of the KPFPs on land-based income and off-farm income. Our empirical results indicate that the direct contribution and overall (including direct and indirect) contribution have experienced a inverted U-shape. Specifically, the overall contributions of the KPFPs’ subsidies to income inequality were less pronounced than that of the direct effects. Furthermore, both the direct contributions and overall contributions to total income inequality changed over time during the study period and differed from one county to another.     

失地农民是自愿还是非自愿退出劳动力市场——基于珠江三角洲的实证研究

本文采用珠三角地区失地农民就业情况的调查数据,运用Logit模型和Multinomial Logit模型对失地农民自愿失业、非自愿失业以及非农就业行为进行实证分析。研究表明,家庭收入以及集体经济分红收入等非劳动收入较高是失地农民退出劳动力市场的主要原因;而对于非自愿性失业的失地农民,年龄、健康和非农工作经验等人力资本低下是他们未能就业的主要原因。     

Technological change and agricultural household income distribution: theory and evidence from China

This article applies a general equilibrium model to analyse the impact of new rice technology on household income and uses agricultural household survey data from China to test the implications of this model. It is shown that, when a new rice technology becomes available, the adopting household will reallocate resources to increase rice production and reduce the production of other goods. Meanwhile, the non-adopting households will do the opposite. Thus, the income from rice becomes increasingly concentrated in the adopting households and income from non-rice becomes increasingly concentrated in the non-adopting households. If only one source of income is examined, the introduction of new rice technology increases the inequality of income distribution in rural areas. But, if the total household income is examined, the distributional inequality is mitigated.     

An econometric analysis of rice consumption in the People's Republic of China

Rice is the most important staple food in the People's Republic of China (PRO. In many Asian countries rice appears to have become an inferior good, with income increases leading to declines in per capita consumption as other food products are substituted for rice. In this study, human rice consumption is analyzed with a model that allows income elasticities to vary with income levels. An additional equation accounting for rice disappearance as seed, livestock feed, industrial uses and exports is also estimated. The results of the analysis indicate that rice has become an inferior good in China and per capita consumption is likely to decline in the future. Population growth and the growing use of rice for other purposes means that total rice disappearance will continue to increase although at a rate that is slower than has historically been the case. The predicted changes in rice consumption will create pressures to adjust production and trade patterns for rice as well as other agricultural products.     

Exploring the effect of land use on ecosystem services: The distributive issues

The current debate of ecosystem services has focused more on monetary valuation methods and payments for environmental services (PES) then on the classic economic analysis (i.e. assumptions regarding: sustainability, justice and efficiency). This paper examines, taking into consideration ecosystem services, income distribution from different land uses to stakeholders. We study the Portuguese common land ecosystem, which is characterized as having a wide range of ecosystem services. Allowing that all the benefits can be translated into economic value, we estimated the total economic value (TEV) associated with these territories on 5 different land use situations: forest, shrubland, water bodies, mountain agriculture and other uses, and analyzed the current institutional arrangements around these territories. We found that the distribution of the benefits of different land uses is relatively inequality. The results showed that the contemporary institutional arrangements of wealth distribution ensure a relatively fair distribution insider of system; however this institutional arrangement is unable to ensure equitable distribution of wealth by external stakeholders. We can conclude that different types of land use provide a very asymmetric distribution of income by different groups of humans: land owners; citizens of a country, and residents of Earth.     

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS IN THE NEW ZEALAND FARM SECTOR

The changing pattern of funds sources and uses in the New Zealand farm sector, is summarized, using a flow of funds model. Technical problems of data and definition are discussed. The close relationship between cash farm income and investment is observed, and some indication is given of the extent of aggregate cash withdrawals (drawings) from the sector. The increasing reliance of agriculture on external sources of finance is also apparent.