Women in blue collar and related occupations at the end of the millennium

Electricians, truck drivers, fire fighters, and sewing machine operators are some of today’s blue collar workers. Despite the steady decline in manufacturing, labor force projections suggest that blue collar work will continue to be an important source of employment for women as well as men. Equal opportunity, however, has eluded women in these occupations. Higher paying, more skilled jobs are held by men, while women remain concentrated in less skilled, lower paying jobs. Problems are identified and solutions suggested for integrating women into the nontraditional jobs, as well as for improving the wages and working conditions in traditional jobs.     

Is econometrics useful for private policy making? A case study of replacement policy at an auto rental company

The goal of this paper is to illustrate the potential usefulness of econometrics as a tool to assist private policy makers. We provide a case study and detailed econometric analysis of the automobile replacement policy adopted by a large car rental company. Unlike public policy making–where the benefits from using econometric models and “science-based” approaches to policy making are hard to quantify because the outcomes of interest are typically subjective quantities such as “social welfare”–in the case of firms there is an objective, easily quantifiable criterion for judging whether policy A is better than policy B: profits. We introduce and estimate an econometric model of the rental histories of individual cars in the company’s fleet. Via stochastic simulations, we show that the model provides a good approximation to the company’s actual operations. In particular, the econometric model is able to reproduce the extraordinarily high rates of return that the company obtains on its rental cars, with average internal rates of return between purchase and sale of approximately 50%. However, the econometric model can simulate outcomes under a range of counterfactual vehicle replacement policies. We use the econometric model to simulate the profitability of an alternative replacement policy under pessimistic assumptions about the rate maintenance costs would increase and rental rates would have to be decreased if the company were to keep its rental cars longer than it does under the status quo. Depending on the vehicle type, we find that the company’s expected discounted profits would be between 6% to over 140% higher under the suggested alternative operating strategy where vehicles are kept longer and rental rates of older vehicles are discounted to induce customers to rent them. The company found this analysis to be sufficiently convincing that it undertook an experiment to verify the predictions of the econometric model.     

Occupational gender segregation Trends and explanations

This article examines recent research on occupational segregation by gender. It reviews and evaluates statistical approaches to measuring the extent to which women are disproportionately represented in “women’s jobs” and men in “men’s jobs.” By combining the findings of a number of studies, it traces the changes in the extent in occupational segregation from the end of the nineteenth century until 1995, and the forms and extent of gender segregation in occupations cross-nationally. In addition to the trends, this article considers the consequences of segregation to women. Finally, current explanations for occupational segregation are analyzed and assessed by considering the empirical data on occupational segregation.     

Women Entrepreneurs: Can We Remove the Barriers?

Entrepreneurial activity among women continues to attract attention world wide. However, despite obvious gains, women lag behind men in business ownership and economic independence on every continent. This paper will review the research on entrepreneurship as a career choice for women, the motivations and career paths followed by women entrepreneurs, the attitudes and behaviors associated with successful ventures, the problems that persist and policies that conspire to keep women’s businesses few and small. A discussion of legislation and practices that have helped and hindered women’s entrepreneurship will follow, with suggestions for reframing the issues and reforming policies.     

A positional version of Arrow’s theorem

Arrow’s theorem is based on two “vertical” aggregation conditions expressed in terms of the relative positions of two alternatives in a preference ranking. This note obtains the same result for the strict preference case using instead two “horizontal” aggregation conditions expressed in terms of the absolute position of an alternative in a preference ranking.     

The case for comparable worth

Traditional nondiscrimination efforts focus on women’s access to jobs and on equal pay for the same work. Comparable worth adds a third strategy-policies that ensure that jobs do not pay less because they are filled by women. I review evidence of this discrimination. I describe job evaluation, which can be used to correct it, while preserving a large role for market forces. U.S. workers have no protection from this type of discrimination. I consider arguments raised against comparable worth. The claim that antidiscrimination policies are unnecessary because discrimination is eroded by competitive forces fails to recognize the sluggishness of this response. The argument that barriers to entry are the real problem ignores evidence that cultural devaluation affects wage-setting even absent hiring discrimination. Arguments about undesirable side effects apply with equal force to most regulation. I conclude that comparable worth deserves support.     

Competitive prizes: when less scrutiny induces more effort

We consider a principal who is keen to induce his agents to work at their maximal effort levels. To this end, he samples n days at random out of the T days on which they work, and awards a prize of B dollars to the most productive agent. The principal’s policy (B, n) induces a strategic game Γ(B, n) between the agents. We show that to implement maximal effort levels weakly (or, strongly) as a strategic equilibrium (or, as dominant strategies) in Γ(B, n), at the least cost B to himself, the principal must choose a small sample size n. Thus less scrutiny by the principal induces more effort from the agents.The need for reduced scrutiny becomes more pronounced when agents have information of the history of past plays in the game. There is an inverse relation between information and optimal sample size. As agents acquire more information (about each other), the principal, so to speak, must “undo” this by reducing his information (about them) and choosing the sample size n even smaller.     

Women and poverty: Beyond earnings and welfare

Women’s poverty rates are higher than men’s, with single mothers having extremely high poverty rates. This article first briefly examines poverty measures and U.S. poverty rates among men and women. The author then describes and evaluates three categories of economic research on poverty: the lack or inadequacy of employment and earnings; family structure and welfare; and earnings capacities, care-giving responsibilities and employment. Finally the author assesses the policies to alleviate women’s poverty derived from these explanations.     

“Agreeing to disagree” type results: a decision-theoretic approach

This paper explores interactive epistemology within Morris’ [S. Morris, Alternative definitions of knowledge, in: M.O.L. Bacharach, L.-A. Gerard-Varet, P. Mongin, H.S. Shin (Eds.), Epistemic Logic and the Theory of Games and Decisions, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Amsterdam, 1997, pp. 217–233] framework of knowledge. Specifically, this paper proves a generalized “agreeing to disagree” result. The major features of this formalization are: (i) non-expected utility receives a unified treatment; (ii) the information structure is not necessarily partitional; (iii) Aumann’s celebrated result of “agreeing to disagree” and Milgrom and Stokey’s well-known result of “no trade” are derived as special cases. This paper also presents some new extensions of the “no trade theorem”.     

Diagnoses by general practitioners: Accuracy and reliability

Only 10% of the results of consultations in primary care can be assigned to a confirmed diagnosis, while 50% remain “symptoms” and 40% are classified as “named syndromes” (“picture of a disease”). Moreover, less than 20% of the most frequent diagnoses account for more than 80% of the results of consultations. This finding, confirmed empirically during the last fifty years, suggests a power law distribution, with critical consequences for diagnosis and decision making in primary care.Our results prove that primary care has a severe “black swan” element in the vast majority of consultations. Some critical cases involving “avoidable life-threatening dangerous developments” (ALDD) such as myocardial disturbance, brain bleeding, and appendicitis may be masked by those often vague symptoms of health disorders ranked in the 20% most frequent diagnoses. The Braun distribution predicts the frequency of health disorders on a phenomenological level and reveals the “black swan” problem, but is not a tool by itself for arriving at accurate diagnoses. To improve predictions and enhance the reliability of diagnoses we propose standards of documentation and a systematic manner by which the risk facing a patient with an uncertain diagnosis can be evaluated (diagnostic protocols).Accepting a power law distribution in primary care implies the following: (1) primary care should no longer be defined only by “low prevalence” properties, but also by its black-swan-incidence-problem. This includes rethinking malpractice and the requirements of malpractice litigations; (2) at the level of everyday practice, diagnostic protocols are tools to make diagnoses more reliable; (3) at the level of epidemiology, Braun’s system of classification is useful for generating valid information by which predictions of risks can be improved.     

An extension of the monocentric urban spatial equilibrium model to a multicenter setting: The case of the two-center city

Firms in a monocentric city conforming in substance to the “new urban economics” produce an export commodity under agglomeration economies and employ homogeneous labor and capital. Workers reside about the CBD in decreasing densities with distance. A developer establishes a second export production center within the city's residential area. Conditions for economic viability and growth of the subcenter are examined, and its impacts on short-run and long-run city location patterns are discussed. A limiting condition on subcenter employment size is provided.     

Linear learning in changing environments

The decision maker receives signals imperfectly correlated with an unobservable state variable and must take actions whose payoffs depend on the state. The state randomly changes over time. In this environment, we examine the performance of simple linear updating rules relative to Bayesian learning. We show that a range of parameters exists for which linear learning results in exactly the same decisions as Bayesian learning, although not in the same beliefs. Outside this parameter range, we use simulations to demonstrate that the consumption level attainable under the optimal linear rule is virtually indistinguishable from the one attainable under Bayes’ rule, although the respective decisions will not always be identical. These results suggest that simple rules of thumb can have an advantage over Bayesian updating when more complex calculations are more costly to perform than less complex ones. We demonstrate the implications of such an advantage in an evolutionary model where agents “learn to learn.”     

The latin model of welfare: Do ‘insertion contracts’ reduce long-term dependence?

This paper aims to present an assessment of the welfare policies implemented in most South European countries. Welfare programs in these countries try to combine a basic level of economic protection and measures favoring life and labor skills (‘insertion benefits’) of low-income households. We focus on a specific program set up with the twofold strategy of cash and ‘insertion benefits’ (Madrid's IMI) and, more precisely, on the so-called ‘insertion projects’, consisting in a gradual mix of job search assistance, training and subsidized jobs. We evaluate the effects of these ‘insertion projects’ on welfare recidivism and the duration of off-welfare spells using propensity score-matching methods. Our results suggest that propensity score estimators appear to reduce selectivity due to non-random participation. Both recidivism rates as well as the duration of off-welfare spells suggest potentially successful interventions.     

Social dumping and relocation: is there a case for imposing a social clause?

Public opinion in Europe seems worried about the relocation of production plants toward low wage countries often accused of practicing ‘social dumping’. To reduce the incentives for relocation trade unions proposed the adoption of ‘social clauses’ protecting domestic markets from commodities produced in countries where minimal labor condition are not met. We analyze the effects of the adoption of a social clause in a vertically differentiated Bertrand duopoly. We assess how such a policy affects firms’ relocation decisions in order to be able to assess its welfare implications. We also characterize the optimal social clause policy, both under domestic welfare maximization, and from an efficiency point of view. While we show that a social clause policy cannot be dismissed on domestic (or world) welfare grounds, its case is weaker the higher is the domestic wage and the lower is the foreign wage.     

On the possibility of extinction in a class of Markov processes in economics

We analyze the possibility of eventual extinction of a replenishable economic asset (natural resource or capital) whose stocks follow a stationary Markov process with zero as an absorbing state. In particular, the stochastic process of stocks is determined by a given sequence of i.i.d. random variables with bounded support and a positive-valued transition function that maps the current level of the stock and the current realization of the random variable to the next period’s stock. Such processes arise naturally in stochastic dynamic models of economic growth and exploitation of natural resources. Under a minimal set of assumptions, the paper identifies conditions for almost sure extinction from all initial stocks as well as conditions under which the stocks enter every neighborhood of zero infinitely often almost surely. Our results emphasize the crucial role played by the nature of the transition function under the worst realization of the random shock and clarifies the role of the “average” rate of growth in the context of extinction.     

Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?

The cause of the “housing bubble” associated with the sharp rise and then drop in home prices over the period 1998–2008 has been the focus of significant policy and research attention. The dramatic increase in subprime lending during this period has been broadly blamed for these market dynamics. In this paper we empirically investigate the validity of this hypothesis vs. several other alternative explanations. A model of house price dynamics over the period 1998–2006 is specified and estimated using a cross-sectional time-series data base across 20 metropolitan areas over the period 1998–2006. Results suggest that prior to early 2004, economic fundamentals provide the primary explanation for house price dynamics. Subprime credit activity does not seem to have had much impact on subsequent house price returns at any time during the observation period, although there is strong evidence of a price-boosting effect by investor loans. However, we do find strong evidence that a credit regime shift took place in late 2003, as the GSE’s were displaced in the market by private issuers of new mortgage products. Market fundamentals became insignificant in affecting house price returns, and the price-momentum conditions characteristic of a “bubble” were created. Thus, rather than causing the run-up in house prices, the subprime market may well have been a joint product, along with house price increases, (i.e., the “tail”) of the changing institutional, political, and regulatory environment characteristic of the period after late 2003 (the “dog”).     

Load-limited order release in job shop scheduling systems

This report examines the practice of using work load limits to control the release of orders to a job shop. Load limits function in the following general way. Whenever the inventory of work at a work center exceeds some critical value (its “load limit”), further release of orders which are routed to that work center are blocked from entering the shop. After the inventory is “worked off,” release of work to the shop gateways is again permitted. Load-limited order release is intuitively appealing because it appears to be a method for reducing system inventory and flow times. The practice of load limiting order release is becoming popularized by some of the recent production planning software products now on the market. A notable example is OPT. In this report, analytical results for an M/M/1 queueing model, along with existing simulation studies of multi-machine job shops are interpreted to form a theory about the effects of using load limits.The major finding here is the proposition that system flow time, inventory, and order tardiness all deteriorate to the extent that load limits introduce idle time into the schedule. Based on the arguments presented here, a very cautious approach toward the use of input control schemes for anywhere but gateway work centers would be advised. The conclusions drawn here are to a great extent arrived at by interpreting the research results of others, so there is a clear need for further research which tests these assertions in a more direct and controlled way.     

Levels of strategic purchasing: Impact on supply integration and performance

The growing importance of supply chain management has led to an increasing recognition of the strategic role of purchasing, which has recently evolved and expanded from “buying” to “procurement” and “supply management”. In this study, we chart our sample firms’ advance in strategic purchasing, characterized by the strategic focus, strategic involvement of the purchasing function and the status and visibility of the purchasing professionals, into three stages.This study provides strong empirical support for the importance of strategic purchasing by showing that, by moving towards the more advanced stages, firms at the nascent stage of strategic purchasing can achieve better supply integration, a second-order construct composed of four facets of relational, process, information, and cross-organizational team integration. Our analyses further reveal that strategic purchasing can have a profound impact on supply chain performance for both buyer and supplier firms.     

E-Leadership and Virtual Teams

In this paper we have identified some key challenges for E-leaders of virtual teams. Among the most salient of these are the following:

• The difficulty of keeping tight and loose controls on intermediate progress toward goals

• Promoting close cooperation among teams and team members in order to integrate deliverables

• Encouraging and recognizing emergent leaders in virtual teams

• Establishing explicit processes for archiving important written documentation

• Establishing and maintaining norms and procedures early in a team’s formation and development

• Establishing proper boundaries between home and work

Virtual team environments magnify the differences between good and bad projects, organizations, teams, and leaders. The nature of such projects is that there is little tolerance for ineffective leadership. There are some specific issues and techniques for mitigating the negative effects of more dispersed employees, but these are merely extensions of good leadership—they cannot make up for the lack of it.

SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY

An excellent reference for research on teams is M. E. Shaw, R. M. McIntyre, and E. Salas, “Measuring and Managing for Team Performance: Emerging Principles from Complex Environments,” in R. A. Guzzo and E. Salas, eds., Team Effectiveness and Decision Making in Organizations (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1995). For a fuller discussion of teleworking and performance-management issues in virtual teams, see W. F. Cascio, “Managing a Virtual Workplace,” Academy of Management Executive, 2000, 14(3), 81–90, and also C. Joinson, “Managing Virtual Teams,” HRMagazine, June 2002, 69–73. Several sources discuss the issue of trust in virtual teams: D. Coutu, “Trust in Virtual Teams,” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1998, 20–21; S. L. Jarvenpaa, K. Knoll, and D. E. Leidner, “Is Anybody Out There? Antecedents of Trust in Global Virtual Teams,” Journal of Management Information Systems, 1998, 14(4), 29–64. See also Knoll and Jarvenpaa, “Working Together in Global Virtual Teams,” in M. Igbaria and M. Tan, eds., The Virtual Workplace (Hershey, PA: Idea Group Publishing, 1998).Estimates of the number of teleworkers vary. For examples, see Gartner Group, Report R-06-6639, November 18, 1998, and also Telework America survey, news release, October 23, 2001. We learned about CPP’s approach to managing virtual work arrangements through David Krantz, personal communication, August 20, 2002, Palo Alto, CA.There are several excellent references on emergent leaders. For example, see G. Lumsden and D. Lumsden, Communicating in Groups and Teams: Sharing Leadership (Belmont, CA: Wadsworth, 1993); Lumsden and Lumsden, Groups: Theory and Experience, 4th ed. (Boston: Houghton, 1993); R. W. Napier and M. K. Gershenfeld, Groups: Theory and Experience, 4th ed. (Boston: Houghton, 1989); and M. E. Shaw, Group Dynamics: The Psychology of Small Group Behavior, 3rd ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1981).An excellent source for e-mail style is D. Angell and B. Heslop, The Elements of E-mail Style: Communicate Effectively via Electronic Mail (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1994). To read more on the growing demand for flexible work arrangements, see “The New World of Work: Flexibility is the Watchword,” Business Week, 10 January 2000, 36.For more on individualism and collectivism, see H. C. Triandis, “Cross-cultural Industrial and Organizational Psychology,” in H. C. Triandis, M. D. Dunnette, and L. M. Hough, eds., Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 2nd ed., vol. 4 (Palo Alto, CA: Consulting Psychologists Press, 1994, 103–172).Executive SummaryAs the wired world brings us all closer together, at the same time as we are separated by time and distance, leadership in virtual teams becomes ever more important. Information technology makes it possible to build far-flung networks of organizational contributors, although unique leadership challenges accompany their formation and operation. This paper describes the growth of virtual teams, the various forms they assume, the kinds of information and support they need to function effectively, and the leadership challenges inherent in each form. We then provide workable, practical solutions to each of the leadership challenges identified.     

Check But No Mate: Balancing the Rights of Employees and Employers Under the National Labor Relations Act—The Ongoing Saga

Prior to 1995, employers had enjoyed significant success in asserting management prerogatives over organized labor in cases heard under the National Labor Relations Act. However, at that time, the Supreme Court issued a landmark ruling which essentially leveled the playing field by affirming the rights of union organizers and supporters to employ an aggressive organizing strategy called “salting.” Employers have subsequently attempted to counter the effects of salting through the use of a variety of practices that potentially disrupt salting activities. These strategies have received mixed support with the courts and the National Labor Relations Board. This paper examines the current state of permissible union organizing and management behaviors under the National Labor Relations Act.