The behavior of secondary market prices of LDC syndicated loans

The paper investigates the time series properties and the efficiency of the secondary market for LDCs syndicated loans. The data corresponding to weekly secondary market prices for 26 LDCs syndicated loans are divided into two subperiods: from July 1988 to June 1990 and from July 1990 to May 1992. Tests of the random walk hypothesis are conducted based on the Augmented Dickey-Fuller methodology and the variance-ratio test of Lo and MacKinlay. The efficiency of the market is tested by means of filter rule tests. The empirical findings suggest that the secondary market for LDCs syndicated loans has become more efficient over time and that loan prices follow random walks.     

The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model

Country risk assessment is central to the international investment, which recently has increasingly focused on emerging markets (EM). In this paper we proxy for country risk in EM by using time-varying beta. We extend existing literature by applying a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. After confirming beta is time varying in twenty EM over the period January 1995 to December 2008 we investigate the GARCH (1,1) model and find the t-distribution generates the lowest forecast errors compared to the normal error distribution and a generalised error distribution. In a comparison of previous modelling techniques the results of our modified Diebold-Mariano test statistics suggest that the Kalman Filter model outperforms the GARCH model and the Schwert and Seguin (1990) model. Using a DCC-GARCH model our evidence suggests that considering dynamic betas can improve beta out-of-sample predicting ability and therefore offers potential gains for investors. Finally, we find dynamic betas across EM are strongly associated with each nation's interest rates, US interest rates and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and to a lesser extent the exchange rates. Our results have some similarities to those in previous studies of developed markets in the economic determinants of time-varying beta but differences exist in the results on best model to forecast time-varying beta. These findings have implications for estimating country risk for investment and risk management purposes in EM.     

Credit default swaps and the market for sovereign debt

In this paper, we analyze the determinants and effects of credit default swap (CDS) trading initiation in the sovereign bond market. CDS trading initiation is associated with a 30–150 basis point reduction in sovereign bond yields, with greater yield reductions accruing to higher default risk economies. For countries with high default risk, rated B or lower by Standard and Poor’s, CDS initiation is also associated with significant price efficiency benefits in the underlying market. CDS trading initiation is more likely following increases in local equity index volatility, index spreads for regional and global CDS markets, or depreciation of the local currency relative to the US dollar, and decreases in a country’s ability to service foreign debt. Our results are robust to selection bias controls based on these factors.     

Identifying the effects of an exchange rate depreciation on country risk: Evidence from a natural experiment

A natural experiment is used to study exchange rate depreciation and perceived sovereign risk. France suspended coinage of silver in 1876 provoking a significant exogenous depreciation of all silver standard countries versus gold standard currencies like the British pound – the currency in which their debt was payable. The evidence suggests an exchange rate depreciation can significantly increase sovereign risk if a country is exposed to foreign currency debt. We implement a difference-in-differences estimator and find that the average silver country's spread on hard currency debt increased over ten percent relative to non-silver countries.     

Positive asymmetric information in volatile environments: The black market dollar and sovereign bond yields in Venezuela

PurposeWe test the informational efficiency of Venezuelan USD sovereign bond yields when the black market exchange-rate premium (BMERP) changes.DesignWe use a non-parametric, asymmetric, Granger causality test to test our hypothesis.FindingsWe find that the bond market with less than or equal to 5 years of maturity seems to be efficient when good news is released on the BMERP. However, this market is not informationally efficient, and when combined with unbiased bad news regarding the BMERP, arbitrage opportunities are created.Originality/valueCapital controls that restrict free exchange-rate mechanisms create arbitrage opportunities with negative news as opposed to positive news.     

The pricing of volatility risk in the US equity market

We analyze whether the pricing of volatility risk depends on the asset pricing framework applied in the tests, the specified volatility proxies, and the portfolio sorts used for spanning the asset universe. For this purpose, we compare the results using a macroeconomic and fundamental based asset pricing model using three proxies of volatility and uncertainty, using size/value sorted and industry sector portfolios. Our results reveal that the marginal pricing effect of the VIX volatility factor is strong and statistically significant throughout the models and specifications, while the effect of an EGARCH-based volatility factor is mixed, mostly smaller but with the correct sign. In most cases, the EGARCH factor does not impair the pricing effect of the VIX. The portfolio sorts have a substantial impact on the volatility premiums in both model frameworks. The size of the volatility risk premium is more uniform across the models if the industry sector portfolio sort is used. Finally, the size/value portfolio sort generates larger volatility risk premiums for both models.     

The determinants of the price impact of block trades: further evidence

This article extends previous literature which examines the determinants of the price impact of block trades on the Australian Stock Exchange. As previous literature suggests that liquidity exhibits intraday patterns, we introduce time of day dummy variables to explore time dependencies in price impact. Following theoretical developments in previous literature, the explanatory power of the bid–ask spread, a lagged cumulative stock return variable and a refined measure of market returns are also examined. The model estimated explains approximately 29 per cent of the variation in price impact. Block trades executed in the first hour of trading experience the greatest price impact, while market conditions, lagged stock returns and bid–ask spreads are positively related to price impact. The bid–ask spread provides most of the explanatory power. This suggests that liquidity is the main driver of price impact.     

The impact of the persian gulf crisis on the prices of LDCs' loans

The article employs the event-study methodology to examine the impact of the Persian Gulf Crisis on the prices of LDCs' loans. The main empirical findings are that the Gulf Crisis (1) had a significant impact on the loan prices of LDCs; (2) decreased the loan prices of LDCs with low oil reserves but increased the loan prices of LDCs with high oil reserves; (3) imposed a harsh constraint on the ability and willingness of the severely indebted LDCs to meet their debt obligations; (4) had a strong negative impact on the loan prices of low-income LDCs; and (5) produced large economic losses in LDCs with large remittances from the Middle East. The markets for LDC debt are efficient and responded to the crisis according to expectations. It is interesting to point out that most of the changes in the loan prices occurred during the time period that began with the invasion of Kuwait and ended with the allied forces' air attack.     

Evaluating the sovereign and household credit risk in Singapore: A contingent claims approach

This study evaluates the credit risk of the household and government (sovereign) sectors in Singapore using the contingent claims approach (CCA). The CCA model estimates the default probability of both sectors based on the market value of the assets and liabilities of the sectors. Compared to the traditional credit rating system, this model is able to provide numerical estimates of the exposures and default probabilities. We find that from the year 2000 to 2013, variations in the credit risk measures correspond to the economic growth of Singapore. In addition, we suggest that the main factor affecting the credit risks in the government and household sectors in Singapore is the volatility of the assets held by both sectors, given that the asset-to-distress barrier ratios are relatively stable over the past 14 years for both sectors.     

A sovereign risk index for the Eurozone based on stochastic dominance

We propose a new method to assess sovereign risk in Eurozone countries using an approach that relies on consistent tests for stochastic dominance efficiency. The test statistics and the estimators are computed using mixed integer programming methods. Our analysis is based on macroeconomic fundamentals and their importance in accounting for sovereign risk. The results suggest that net international investment position/GDP and public debt/GDP are the main contributors to country risk in the Eurozone. We also conduct ranking analysis of countries for fiscal and external trade risk. We find a positive correlation between our rankings of the most vulnerable countries and the S&P’s ratings, whereas the correlation for other countries is weaker.     

Banks and sovereign risk: A granular view

We investigate the determinants of sovereign bond holdings of German banks and the implications of such holdings for bank risk. We use granular information on all German banks and all sovereign debt exposures in the years 2005–2013. As regards the determinants of sovereign bond holdings of banks, we find that these are larger for weakly capitalized banks, banks that are active on capital markets, and for large banks. Yet, only around two thirds of all German banks hold sovereign bonds. Macroeconomic fundamentals were significant drivers of sovereign bond holdings only after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. With the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis, German banks reallocated their portfolios toward sovereigns with lower debt ratios and bonds with lower yields. With regard to the implications for bank risk, we find that low-risk government bonds decreased the risk of German banks, especially for savings and cooperative banks. Holdings of high-risk government bonds, in turn, increased the risk of commercial banks during the sovereign debt crisis.     

The determinants of high‐interest entrusted loans in China

We examine the determinants of high‐interest entrusted loans in China from the perspective of corporate risk‐taking. The results of a baseline model illustrate that the propensity to offer high‐interest entrusted loans increases with loose monetary policies, corporate cash holdings and firm age, and it decreases with firm size and growth opportunity. These findings support the claim that firms offer high‐interest entrusted loans mainly for short‐term profits. Other determining factors include CEO behavior traits, market imperfections and the intensity of corporate governance. Specifically, market imperfections create an opportunity for risk‐taking while CEO behavior and the intensity of corporate governance affect a firm's tendency to take risk and engage in high‐interest entrusted loans.     

Long-term government bond yields and macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence for Greece during the crisis-era

This paper studies the influence of macroeconomic fundamentals and the underlying 10 years Greek government bonds. We examine for the period between Q12001 up to end to Q42012, applying four major macroeconomic variables such as Debt to GDP ratio, deficit, inflation and unemployment. We found that, overall, deficit, inflation and unemployment among others, play a more significant role as determinants of the 10-year Greek bond yield, while isolating the period during the crisis macroeconomic factors strengthen their affect to the Greek Debt market.     

The impact of COVID-19 on the stock market crash risk in China

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the stock market crash risk in China. For this purpose, we first estimated the conditional skewness of the return distribution from a GARCH with skewness (GARCH-S) model as the proxy for the equity market crash risk of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. We then constructed a fear index for COVID-19 using data from the Baidu Index. Based on the findings, conditional skewness reacts negatively to daily growth in total confirmed cases, indicating that the pandemic increases stock market crash risk. Moreover, the fear sentiment exacerbates such risk, especially with regard to the impact of COVID-19. In other words, when the fear sentiment is high, the stock market crash risk is more strongly affected by the pandemic. Our evidence is robust for the number of daily deaths and global cases.     

The challenges of risk society for impact assessment

This paper takes its point of departure in Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. The paper puts forward a hypothesis, on which theoretical challenges the characteristics of risk society pose to impact assessment as a decision support tool; namely, the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions and the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate. Through a case example of integration of climate change in strategic environmental assessment, the paper uses empirical evidence from a survey and a series of interviews to carry out a preliminary discussion of how the theoretical challenges are reflected in practice. The case study results show that the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions in a risk society is reflected in the current state of practice, while the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate is not clearly reflected.     

The impact of regulation on market risk

While it is crucial to understand the impact of regulatory changes on market risk, the literature does not show how risk responds to expected regulatory changes that are specifically designed to change risk. Our paper fills this gap by providing a detailed study of one such case. Using both a sample of privatized U.K. companies, and U.K. and U.S. control portfolios, between 1993 and 2000, we show (both for the single-factor market model and the three-factor Fama-French model) that the observed changes in market risk are significant and consistent with theory.     

Do credit rating agencies add to the dynamics of emerging market crises?

This study investigates the role of credit rating agencies in international financial markets. With an index of speculative market pressure it is analyzed whether sovereign ratings changes have an impact on the financial stability in emerging market economies. The event study analysis indicates that sovereign rating changes have substantial influence on the size and volatility of emerging markets lending. The empirical results are significantly stronger in the case of government's downgrades and negative imminent rating actions than in the case of agencies’ positive rating adjustments. Sovereign rating changes anticipated by market participants have a smaller impact on financial markets in emerging economies.     

The market for private student loans: an analysis of credit union exposure,risk, and returns

Beginning in 2011, credit unions in the United States have been required to report in their quarterly call reports their holdings of private student loans. Since this time, private student loans have been the fastest growing loan product among credit unions. The empirical results here indicate credit unions respond to external market forces and internal exposure to interest rate risk in their decision to hold private student loans. The effect of which, to date, has led to lower returns on their assets and no effect on overall risk. Credit unions looking to diversify their loan portfolio should do so with caution. Private student loans being in deferral reduce both delinquency and charge-off rates, which will rise over time with their seasoning and as interest rates rise.     

The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants

This paper analyses the network structure of the credit default swap (CDS) market and its determinants, using a unique dataset of bilateral notional exposures on 642 financial and sovereign reference entities. We find that the CDS network is centred around 14 major dealers, exhibits a “small world” structure and a scale-free degree distribution. A large share of investors are net CDS buyers, implying that total credit risk exposure is fairly concentrated. Consistent with the theoretical literature on the use of CDS, the debt volume outstanding and its structure (maturity and collateralization), the CDS spread volatility and market beta, as well as the type (sovereign/financial) of the underlying bond are statistically significantly related—with expected signs—to structural characteristics of the CDS market.     

The impact of exchange rate risk on international asset pricing under various market structures

This article derives international equity pricing relations by taking into account inflationary exchange risk under various forms of market segmentation/integration. In a mean-variance framework, a two-country, two-period, two-goods model is analyzed under three different market structures: segmented, mildly segmented and integrated. It is found that as long as investors are consuming imported goods, in the presence of market frictions, inflationary exchange risk is an important determinant of real equity prices. This is the case because inflationary exchange rate affects the real purchasing power of investors.