How to Model a Child in School? A Dynamic Macrosimulation Study for Tanzania

Universal primary education is regarded as one of the key pillars of sustainable development. The positive influence of education on growth is supported by many empirical studies. However, the effects of education on labour supply, poverty reduction and welfare as well as subsistence agriculture are hardly traceable in an econometric set‐up, given the complex interactions and the long‐term nature of education. An economy‐wide dynamic simulation model provides a well‐suited toolkit to analyse the effects of increased school provision in these aspects and provides insights into the intertemporal aspects of the schooling decision of children. We develop a macroeconomic model that explicitly includes education and human capital allocation, and takes into account that the possibility of child labour increases the opportunity costs of human capital formation. In an application for Tanzania, we find that a large‐scale investment programme in education might have a negative effect on both gross domestic product (GDP) growth and high‐skilled labour supply in the short term but leads to higher GDP and welfare as well as significantly reduced child labour supply in the medium to long term.     

生育政策、子女数量与中国的性别教育平等

近年来,中国性别教育差距快速缩小并呈现出女性高等教育在校生比重超越男性的现象,文章从生育政策视角对这一现象进行了解释,认为计划生育政策通过改善女性教育获得显著促进了性别教育平等。队列分析显示,生育政策之后的出生队列中女性相对教育水平明显提高,性别教育差距明显缩小。基于生育政策地区差异和出生队列差异构建的双差分模型分析发现,以农村二孩政策地区为参照组,严格的独生子女政策在提高女性相对受教育机会方面更为明显。但相对于二孩政策,一孩半政策在促进性别教育平等方面不存在显著差异,这可能由于在一孩半政策下独女户和双女户数量较少,家庭受性别偏好影响会将资源向男性倾斜,导致政策没有通过控制家庭规模提高女性相对教育获得机会。研究认为,随着中国放松生育政策,农村地区由一孩半政策过渡到二孩政策并不会对女性教育获得产生明显影响,应该关注生育政策调整对严格独生子女政策地区女性教育获得的影响。同时,随着性别教育差距逐步缩小,可以利用劳动力市场政策降低市场性别歧视,进一步提高女性地位并促进性别平等。     

Upward mobility and the demand for children: Evidence from China

This paper aims to investigate a new determinant of the demand for children: upward mobility. Upward mobility can affect the demand for children in two opposite directions: upward mobility means more resources to spend on childbearing and increases the demand for children; it also lowers the need to rely on children for old-age support and this leads to lower demand for children. In this paper, we use the difference between the subject's self-evaluations of the future and current social class as the measure of upward mobility, and fertility desire to represent the demand for children. Using the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data, we find that upward mobility significantly increases the demand for children, and the results are robust across various model specifications (pooled data regression, Poisson regression, and IV regression). The effect is concentrated among affluent and/or urban households, suggesting that those from more advantaged social-economic backgrounds appear to have a higher elasticity of fertility in response to upward mobility. Our results imply that improving upward mobility and public services such as education, health care, and social security would be effective to boost fertility in China.     

A new approach to household fertility behavior

A 1st step is taken in this discussion towards the explicit theoretical recognition that fertility decisions are made by pairs of individuals who conceivably have different preferences or are in different circumstances. The focus is on disagreements between spouses over desired family size. The discussion begins by identifying the costs and benefits of child services to each spouse, which involves consideration of the type of interdependency of the utility functions as well as the nature of the externality problem in the production of child service. Specific examples are included of situations in which disagreement is likely to occur. Using the National Fertility Survey of 1965, it is possible to test whether disagreements are more likely to occur in these identified cases. 2 types of fertility conflict are predicted: the wife desires fewer children than the husband and the reverse. The National Fertility Survey (NFS) data set contains 5617 interview records. A sample of 1559 women who were married once, husband present, nonmenopausal, aged 25-39 with valid answers to all questions were selected. Husband's schooling in excess of wife's increased the probability that conflict of the husband demanding fewer children type will arise and the probability was increased at higher levels of income. The demand for quality rose with income and placed additional pressure on a husband with more education to assist (via lost leisure time) in the creation of quality. The effects were highly nonlinear. Higher levels of status of the wife's (potential) job had the predicted effect of making wife demands fewer children conflict more likely, but only through intermediate levels of status. Another variable which had a significant influence on the probability of conflict was the husband's age, with higher husband's age leading to husband demanding fewer children than wife conflict.     

Elderly long-term care policy and sandwich caregivers’ time allocation between child-rearing and market labor

Using an overlapping generations model, we present analyses of public long-term care provision effects on fertility and time allocation decisions of sandwich caregivers, those caring for young children and old parents simultaneously. If the public long-term care level runs short of the necessary level, then working children must compensate for the difference by spending their time. Reportedly, about a third of university students’ parents are sandwich caregivers in Japan, although Japan has a Long-Term Care Insurance system, which is a mandatory system with universal coverage. With a rapidly aging population, demand for long-term care is predicted to increase, thereby affecting family time allocation, e.g., fertility decisions, in Japan. Results show that if public long-term care production is costly relative to family care provision, then increases in public care provision lower the fertility rate. If labor productivity in the public long-term care sector improves, then it increases the fertility rate by freeing caregivers’ time from family care provision. It will also increase social welfare. The effects on labor employment in the goods production sector are generally ambiguous because the increased public care provision requires more labor.     

FARM SIZE AND THE INTENSITY OF LAND USE IN GUJARAT

This paper investigates why smaller farms appear to use landmore intensively than larger farms in India Using data from400 farms in Gujarat, we find the inverse relationship betweenoutput per hectare and farm size is explained by regional variationsin fertility and labour supply. Within villages larger farmsproduce a little more output per hectare with much less labourper hectare This is explained by the relative abundance of familylabour on small farms. Family size impacts positively on farmlabour demand, suggesting perhaps a wedge between the opportunitycost of family labour and the wage of hired labour.     

Are China's unit labour costs still competitive? A comparison with ASEAN countries

The rapidly rising wages and renminbi (RMB) revaluation have attracted lively debate about whether China can continue its rapid economic growth by relying on labour‐intensive goods exports. By comparing the competitiveness in labour costs between China and ASEAN countries, with a particular emphasis on unit labour costs, we find that China has lost its competitiveness in labour costs relative to ASEAN countries. However, our results show that some regions in China, such as the northeast and northwest, still have an advantage relative to ASEAN countries. Thus, China can duplicate Akamatsu's Flying Geese Paradigm by transferring labour‐intensive manufacturing industry from its coastal areas to non‐coastal areas.     

Estimating national economic parameters for Namibia using the shadow pricing approach

This paper estimates national economic parameters to be used for project appraisal in Namibia. The shadow prices of capital, labour, and foreign exchange are derived. The results suggest that the economic opportunity cost of capital is 7.2%. The economic costs of Namibian labour as a share of financial costs are 32% for urban semi-skilled and unskilled labour, and 54% for rural semi-skilled and unskilled labour. The economic costs of foreign labour as a share of financial costs are 59%. The shadow exchange rate factor is estimated to be 4% for the Namibian economy.     

Childbearing Age,Family Allowances,and Social Security

Although the optimal public policy under an endogenous number of children has been widely studied, the optimal public intervention under an endogenous timing of births has remained largely unexplored. This paper examines the optimal family policy when the timing of births is chosen by individuals who differ as to how early fertility weakens future earnings. We analyze the design of a policy of family allowances and of public pensions in such a setting, under distinct informational environments. Endogenous childbearing ages is shown to affect the optimal policy through the redistribution across the earnings dimension and the internalization of fertility externalities. Contrary to common practice, children benefits differentiated according to the age of parents can be part of the optimal family policy. Our results are robust to introducing: (i) children as durable “goods”; (ii) education choices; (iii) varying total fertility.     

Equal opportunity and the quantity and quality of Japanese children

"This paper constructs and estimates a simple model of Japanese completed fertility. The analytical model shows that as a woman's lifetime wage rises, there is a decline in average 'quality' per child, but the effect on the quantity of children is ambiguous. Estimation of the model with rare household level data shows that increases in the husband's permanent income raises completed fertility for high income couples, but lowers fertility for the low income. If the wife's education is an appropriate instrument for her lifetime wage, then a rise in the wife's lifetime wage appears to lower her demand for children."     

Income inequality and educational expenditures on children: Evidence from the China Family Panel Studies

Using the data from the China Family Panel Studies from 2010 to 2018, we find that rising income inequality causes parents to spend more on children’s education, both in school and out of school. The impact of income inequality on out-of-school expenditures is significant at intensive and extensive margins, especially for study-related tutoring participation. Furthermore, we find some empirical evidence suggesting that in response to rising inequality, mothers spend more time on children’s education and there exists a substitution effect between time and money. Further analysis suggests two potential reasons for the rising education spending: (1) a higher income inequality resulting from rising skill premium strengthens parents’ long-lasting cultural attitude towards education to higher levels, inducing them to spend more on educational investment, and (2) a higher income inequality increases the value of higher education, leading to a stronger demand for better educational opportunities, and then, more intense education competition, forcing parents to invest more in education.     

Higher education expansion and supply of teachers in China

We examine the teacher labour market in China using the 2005 mini-Census, in the context of the transformation of the world's largest education system. We first document a significant increase not only in quantity, but also in quality of teachers during 1990–2005. Instrumental Variables results based on the natural experiment of a substantial expansion of higher education in 1992/93 indicate a large positive causal effect of the expansion on supply of teachers. Consistent with differential opportunity costs across graduate occupations, the supply effect is more pronounced for women and those living in less developed regions. Further analyses of differential college premiums in earnings and non-pecuniary benefits between teaching and non-teaching occupations suggest that teacher recruitment has become more market-oriented and flexible, in attracting low to lower-middle ability college graduates into teaching in an increasingly decentralized and competitive graduate labour market.     

Labour with different types of skills and jobs as production factors

Summary A Cobb-Douglas production function with labour of three different levels of education is proposed. The quantity of labour with primary education is defined as the number of people having jobs requiring primary education plus the number of people with primary education who actually have jobs requiring secondary education, the latter being given a weight above one. An analogous definition applies to the quantity of labour with secondary education, where some people will actually have jobs requiring either second or third-level schooling. A simple model where utility functions developed elsewhere are also involved is used to determine the income distribution over levels of education and jobs for given numbers of labourers with primary and secondary education. Doubling the number of those with second and thirdlevel schooling will reduce income differences to about one half. It affords the Board of Editors great pleasure to publish this paper by one of their members. This gives the Board the opportunity, also on behalf of the readers ofDe Economist, to congratulate Professor Tinbergen most cordially upon his 70th birthday, which he celebrated on 12th April, 1973.     

The effect of family planning exposure on fertility choices and reproductive health care in rural Pakistan

This paper investigates whether family planning exposure mainly through the Lady Health Worker Program has had any effect on women’s fertility choices and use of reproductive health care service in rural Pakistan, using the 2013 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS). Exploiting variations in the program intensity across regions, we conduct instrumental variables (IV) estimation on the impact of family planning exposure on women’s fertility preferences and reproductive behaviors. Our analysis shows that even in the presence of strong son preferences in Pakistan, increasing family planning exposure reduces women’s incentive to have additional children. Moreover, family planning exposure is associated with more antenatal care visits, more deliveries performed by skilled professionals, and a greater chance of delivery at the health center. Finally, we examine the heterogeneity in the effect on fertility preference by age group and education level, and find that the effect is mainly significant for the educated and young women.     

Utilising a Demand-led Approach in a Local Labour Market

Traditional labour market activation policies have tended to be focused on labour supply and improving the opportunities for new entrants or re-entrants to obtain appropriate paid employment. This emphasis was encouraged in the 1980s and 1990s by shifts in the location and nature of employment (deindustrialisation), growing and persistent levels of unemployment and policy concerns with labour market disadvantage. More recently, the need to ensure international competitiveness, often by minimising local labour costs and enhancing labour flexibility, has been accompanied by a concern amongst employers at the impact of skill shortages. One response has been to shift the policy focus from supply to demand, essentially by seeking to understand the changing nature of local labour demand and by developing appropriate labour market initiatives. This paper analyses the case study provided by a labour market initiative in a regional labour market in New Zealand to assess the utility of such an approach. The Waitakere Employment and Skills Project (WESP) is a collaborative approach to labour demand, involving a number of economic development and local/national government agencies, as well as a university research team (including the author).     

Black abortion demand

Conclusion This study estimates the demand for abortion by black women. The empirical results find that black abortion demand is price inelastic, negatively related to unemployment conditions, and positively related to the presence of state Medicaid and a college education. These results are consistent with the findings in prior studies of all childbearing women. The only two findings at odds with those of all childbearing women were that black women's abortion demands are considerably more responsive to changes in income and do not depend on marital status.     

Returns to size and structure of agriculture: A suggested interpretation

Neoclassical theory equates minimum costs and size among firms. Real‐world observation is quite different. Many empirical studies show constant returns to size. Explanations for economies or diseconomies often involve different technologies, buying or selling economies, integration, tax incentives, managerial limitations, demand fluctuations, flexibility and opportunity costs of production factors, particularly labour. Some explanations since the late sixties have largely involved managerial differences, which imply different optimal sizes for different firms. Optimum size does not involve minimum average costs, but maximum profit. Profit maximizing output varies among firms. An optimal structure implies diverse farm sizes rather than homogeneously sized farms. Social, cultural and political factors are also important Future South African agricultural policy will have to involve revitalization of commercial agriculture, development and commercialization of subsistence agriculture and some affirmative action regarding land use. Within this framework, policy calls for flexibility regarding farm sizes and farm structure.     

Long-Term Effects of Labour Market Entry Conditions: The Case of Korea

This study investigates the effects of labour market conditions at the time of graduation, proxied by the local unemployment rate, on long-term family and labour market outcomes in Korea. The examination yields four main findings. Labour market entry conditions have strong and persistent effects among high school graduates. Male college graduates have a persistently lower probability of working at large firms if the demand for local labour shrinks at the time of graduation. Self-employment can be persistently hampered by adverse economic conditions at graduation. Family formation and childbearing are temporarily affected by labour market entry conditions, especially for less educated women. The first three findings highlight the notable segmentation of the Korean labour market into protected jobs in large firms – mostly part of business groups (chaebols) – and unprotected jobs.     

Women's autonomy and its impact on fertility

This paper seeks to assess empirically the impact of female autonomy on fertility. It argues that by attending to fundamental freedoms for impoverished women, by enhancing women's access to and control over critical resources — their capability to achieve well-being — we not only meet welfare goals but also promote a reduction in fertility. The findings of this paper affirm the post-Cairo discourse emphasizing health and women's education. The findings also suggest the need to broaden the focus to include other initiatives that foster women's autonomy and to engage the full range of empowerment possibilities.     

Resolving the puzzle of the underissuance of national bank notes

Much of the puzzle of underissuance of national bank notes can be resolved for the period 1880–1900 (the period when detailed, bank-level data are available) by disaggregating, taking account of regulatory limits, and considering differences in banks’ opportunity costs cross-sectionally and over time. Banks with poor lending opportunities issued more, within regulatory limits. Banks tended to issue more when bond yields (the backing for notes) were high relative to lending opportunities. The profitability of note issuance was insufficient to attract entrants primarily or mainly for the purpose of note issuance. The observed lack of a general relationship between note issuance and reserve demand is inconsistent with the view that redemption costs from note issuance explain low note issuance in general. However, some variation in the propensities of urban banks to issue notes is associated with variation in reserve demand costs associated with the note issues of those banks. Generally, however, note issuance enjoyed economies of scope with deposit banking, including reduced costs of reserve requirements.