我国商业银行市场结构现状分析及其优化研究

本文基于我国13家商业银行2000-2006年的面板数据。对我国商业银行业市场结构、绩效等情况进行实证分析。得出我国商业银行业市场集中度趋于下降.我国银行的垄断状态逐渐被打破。在商业银行市场结构与银行绩效的回归结果上表现为:伴随着市场集中度下降,各商业银行绩效得到提高;商业银行资产规模对其绩效带来负的影响;银行管理水平、创利能力对其绩效产生显著的正向影响;产品差异化与银行绩效则显示弱的正向关系。本文认为完善银行业微观基础、降低政策性市场壁垒、提高银行差异化产品的服务能力、拓展银行国际业务等是我国银行市场结构优化的方向。     

英国低碳能源转型:战略、情景、政策与启示

总结英国上一轮能源转型的清洁化、多元化、市场化特点及影响,简要阐述其面向"2050碳中和"目标的立法,引用英国国家电网公司发布的"未来能源情景(2019)",分析低碳转型目标下未来英国能源系统"可信"的演变方式。在情景规划的基础上,以未来英国增长潜力最大的海上风能为例,着重分析英国本轮能源市场改革中如何通过政策干预与市场竞争,实现可再生能源的快速发展以及低碳化能源系统与市场的构建。对中国政府和企业制定低碳发展战略的启示包括:应对气候变化和面向低碳能源的立法是实现转型的基本保障;能源低碳化转型路径不唯一,应充分结合本国资源与产业特点制定能源政策;政策扶持结合市场竞争的模式可以加快新能源产业发展,降低转型成本;融入区域统一能源市场,低碳转型中强化多重能源战略目标的实现。     

Uncertainty and the market valuation of R&D within a real options logic

The aim of this study is to provide new theoretical insights and empirical evidence on the effect of market and technological uncertainty on the market valuation of a firm's R&D capital. A set of hypotheses is developed adopting a real options logic and tested on a panel dataset of 290 manufacturing firms traded in the UK. Consistently with our theoretical model, we show that market and technological uncertainty have distinct effects on the valuation of R&D investments. The results have several important implications for resource allocation to R&D under uncertainty, which we discuss in the concluding section. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

房地产抵押贷款二级市场初探

目前我国房地产抵押贷款金融机构中存在着抵押贷款资金缺乏，抵押风险大的两大问题，针对这一问题笔认为尽快建立房地产抵押贷款二级市场是解决上述两个问题的关键，本论述了二级市场在解决上述两个问题中所发挥的作用，以及建立房地产抵押贷款二级市场需要的条件。     

Structure and Profitability in Banking Markets

We use the structure-performance model and regression analysis to investigate a number of analytical issues that often arise in evaluating competition in connection with bank mergers and that are generally relevant to mergers in other industries. Perhaps our most consistent and strongest finding is that the local market HHI is positively and significantly related to profitability. We also find that the number of organizations and the level of recent deposit growth may provide some additional information on the level of competition. Finally, several variables including market size, the number of large banking firms, deposits per office, and resident migration rates exhibit similar relationships to profitability in the bivariate analysis, suggesting that there may be some characteristic associated with market size, density, or attractiveness that is important for competition.     

Recent Developments at the CMA: 2017–2018

We describe three interesting cases that the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has dealt with over the past year: first, we discuss the merger of two online food ordering platforms—Just Eat and Hungryhouse—which required an assessment of competition in the presence of indirect network effects. Second, we discuss the vertical merger of a grocery retailer and wholesaler—Tesco and Booker—which posed the challenge of how to assess a firm’s incentives to foreclose its rivals when there are thousands of local markets. Finally, we discuss Open Banking, which lies at the heart of the package of remedies that came out of the CMA’s market investigation into personal banking, and sought to tackle issues of low customer engagement.     

Market Structure after Horizontal Mergers: Evidence from the Banking Industry

Antitrust agencies use measures of market structure to evaluate the likely competitive effects of proposed mergers, but little is known about how measures of market structure change over time, particularly after consummation of mergers and acquisitions. This paper analyzes the changes in market structure 3 and 5 years after mergers in the US banking industry. Our analysis suggests that concentration decreases and the number of banks increases in banking markets where mergers resulted in high concentration levels. In markets where the level of concentration changed by a relatively large amount, our findings are more ambiguous, as the level of concentration decreases, but no effect is found on the number of competitors.     

Banking Relationships and REIT Capital Structure

This article examines the evolution of real estate investment trust (REIT) capital structure in the new REIT era with a focus on the effects of banking relationships on REIT capital structure. Using a unique sample of REITs from 1992 to 2003, we find that, after controlling for firm characteristics, REITs with banking relationships are more likely to obtain long‐term debt ratings and subsequently issue public debt. Moreover, REITs with banking relationships tend to use less secured debt and have lower leverage. These findings support the notion that banking relationships facilitate REITs' access to the public debt markets and help explain why REITs shift from traditional mortgage financing to bank debt and public capital market financing. The results also support the proposition that firm leverage should be positively related to the amount of a firm's secured debt.     

Market power and banking failures

We investigate whether more competition in the banking industry necessarily results in a higher probability of banking failures, as it is often suggested. In our model borrowers face a moral hazard problem, which induces banks to choose between costly monitoring and credit rationing. We show that investment decreases with the lending rate and increases with monitoring effort. Since incentives to monitor are enhanced by market power, the relationship between market structure and investment is ambiguous. In the presence of non-diversifiable risk and decreasing returns to scale, more investment implies higher failure rates. As a result, the relationship between market power and banking failures is ambiguous.     

中国汽车产业市场结构与市场绩效研究

本文利用中国汽车工业1998—2008年的数据,通过多元回归分析方法,对中国汽车产业市场结构和市场绩效进行实证研究。实证表明,中国汽车产业市场已从竞争型转向了中下集中寡占型,市场集中度对汽车产业的市场绩效为正效应,但对内资企业、外商投资企业、港澳台投资企业的影响程度不同。本文剖析了中国汽车企业通过市场集中度提高提升市场绩效的主要影响因素及市场集中度对内外资企业市场绩效影响程度差异的原因,并探讨相关政策建议,以期对中国汽车产业发展提供有益的思路。     

Research notes and communications first-mover effects in multiple dynamic markets

A study of first-mover effects in semi-submersible oil-drilling suggests that first-entrants in international markets maintain higher market share after controlling for market localization and life cycle. Examining only surviving entrants at a point in time inflates this pioneering-market share relationship. Pioneering has an inter-market effect on market share, greater than the intra-market effect. Multinational firms may use market pioneering to resist localization pressures and enhance survival in foreign markets. The study suggests the importance of careful first-mover identification and market definition, a wider examination of first-mover effects over multiple markets, and control for measurement timing.     

A note on the market share-profitability relationship

This study extends earlier empirical work to determine whether there is a breakpoint or critical level in the frequently observed relationship between firm market share and profit rate. The analysis focuses on the banking industry and uses a sample of 10,690 firms located in 2165 different local geographic markets. Though the results apply directly only to banking, the similarity of findings on various other industrial organization topics in banking and the industrial sector suggests that the results of this study will be broadly relevant to the industrial sector.The main findings of the study are that (1) in general, firm market share is directly related to profitability; (2) the firm market share variable remains positive and significant when controlling for market concentration either with concentration as a separate independent variable or by conducting tests with subsamples of firms that are in markets with similar concentration ratios; and (3) while there is no sharp breakpoint in the market share-profitability relationship, the results indicate that profit rates of firms increase at a decreasing rate up to a share of about 55 percent. Since numerous studies have found that economies of scale are not particularly important in banking, it appears that the observed relationship is not due to greater efficiency with larger shares.     

Market share inequality,the HHI,and other measures of the firm-composition of a market

Data for individual markets suggest that the Herfindahl- Hirschman Index does not fully account for the inequality of market shares and the number of firms in a market. An empirical investigation is conducted to determine whether share inequality, number of firms, and major firm presence affect market profit rates independent of the HHI. The analysis controls for efficiency, among other things. Test results based on 1,684 banking markets during 1990–1992 indicate that the HHI, market share inequality, and the importance of major firms are positively related and the number of firms is negatively related to profit rates. Results on several other variables also suggest that market imperfections exist in local banking markets.     

Strategic Complementarities in Bank Branching Decisions*

I study how complementarities between rival banks’ branching decisions impacts banking deregulation. I use an instrumental variables approach to separately identify a bank’s strategic response to rivals’ branching decisions from common market factors. The results indicate that some bank types are more likely to open additional branches if their rivals do. This has important implications for expansion and merger policies. These are explored using a model of consumer demand for bank services and bank branch network choices. I find that strategic complementarities in branching decisions augment the effects of a merger or expansion, leading many banking markets to become over-branched.     

货币供给量与影子银行、通货膨胀的关系——基于可变参数状态空间模型的实证检验

为了提高货币政策的可操作性,为货币政策的制定提供更加明确的方向,运用平稳性检验、协整关系检验、Granger因果关系检验等方法,基于可变参数的状态空间模型,研究货币供给量与影子银行、通货膨胀之间的动态变化关系,确定弹性系数的大小。研究发现,货币供应量的通货膨胀弹性系数呈现出明显的下降趋势,通货膨胀的影响逐渐降低;货币供应量的影子银行弹性系数呈上升趋势,影子银行的影响力越来越大。对三者关系进行研究所获得的结论有利于加强对影子银行的监管,提高货币政策实施的有效性。     

Determinants of Entry and Profits in Local Banking Markets

This paper estimates a two equation model of market entry and profits, utilizing data on entry into over 2,000 banking markets over the period 1977--88. The entry equations measure whether entry depends on incumbent firms' profits and other market attributes that reflect the long-term attractiveness of markets for entry. Market profits, assumed to follow a partial-adjustment process, are affected by entry directly and indirectly through market structure. The model also corrects for an unavoidable source of error in market-level profits for the banking industry. The estimates suggest that a competitive process is at work in banking markets that limits the ability of supra-normal profits to persist. Entry is more likely in markets that have high profits, consistent with previous empirical results that market structure adjusts more quickly when profits are supra-normal. Population and population growth are also strong determinants of entry. Entry, in turn, reduces profits in rural markets.     

The gender pay gap in the ICT labour market: comparative experiences from the UK and New Zealand

This paper addresses the issues surrounding gender pay gaps focusing on the Information Communication Technology (ICT) sector of the labour market. Reporting on research conducted in the UK and New Zealand (NZ) we adopted a mixed method approach using comparable qualitative and quantitative research techniques to investigate pay issues amongst women working in ICT in the UK and NZ. Our findings reveal commonalities of experience and some interesting differences. Unlike with the UK sample, for example, in NZ women working in ICT do not believe that their pay reflects their workload, skills and their position within their own organisation. Our study found that non‐transparent pay and reward systems and salary secrets exacerbate inequality and discrimination in the UK and NZ. The paper concludes by offering some policy directions to encourage a narrowing of the gender pay gap and reflects on the benefits of doing cross‐national research.     

Functional separation in Swedish broadband market: Next step of improving competition

Technological development together with liberalization policy has led to competition in the telecommunications market. Broadband has been recognized as a driving force in the social and economic development of nations, and many countries have introduced policies and/or regulatory frameworks to improve competition in broadband markets. An evolution can be seen from the 1980s until the present day through open access to local loop unbundling to several degrees of separation including functional separation. There are several countries implementing functional separation such as the UK, Italy, Sweden and, recently the EU. It has been suggested that functional separation can be an effective policy for increasing competition in broadband markets under certain circumstances. Sweden has implemented functional separation by amending the Swedish Telecommunications Act in 2008 to include mandatory functional separation as one of the powers of the PTS, the Swedish telecommunications regulator. Although TeliaSonera, the incumbent fixed line operator decided to voluntarily separate part of their business, the amendments to the law were debated with arguments similar to the debates in the EU following the new regulatory framework implemented in 2009. Against this background, this paper provides an overview of the development of functional separation in the EU and European countries such as Sweden and the UK. The paper also provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the implementation of functional separation. The evolution of functional separation in Sweden is explained and ends with a discussion of the implementation of functional separation in the Swedish broadband market.     

Business strategy,market structure and risk-return relationships: A structural approach

A structural model is proposed which integrates and extends previous findings on the interrelations between risk—return outcomes, market share, firm conduct attributes, and inter-firm rivalry. It is argued that the relative impact of market share and firm conduct attributes on risk—return outcomes depends on the intensity of rivalry. The empirical setting is commerical banking in Indiana (1975–79). Latent variable path analysis (partial least-squares) is used to estimate the model. The effect of market share is found to be quite important, even when possible ‘spurious’ effects due to differences in individual firm attributes are controlled for. Given consistent indications of oligopolistic coordination found in various parts of the model, it is inferred that the measured effect of market share reflects the exercise of market power.     

The IT productivity paradox-evidence from the UK retail banking industry

This article addresses causes of the so-called 'information technology productivity paradox' in the context of UK retail banks. It investigates why massive investments by retail banks in information technology are not being translated into significant productivity gains, given that sucessful implementation of new technology is particularly important in increasingly competitive banking environments.