Understanding the decision-making processes for arts sponsorship

• Corporate support is a significant revenue stream for non-profit organisations, yet little is known of the actual decision paths companies take when making these decisions and what characterises these paths. This study seeks to develop a greater understanding of decision processes for companies considering sponsorship of the arts. A multiple-case study approach was taken, with participants from arts organisations and paired sponsoring companies, resulting in the finding of three decision paths: one characterised as high-level and intuitive, one as driven at a lower-level, and a third initially instigated by a third party. Analysis of these paths highlights the importance of existing relationships as well as a ‘fit’ between both parties. In addition, the company's orientation towards more commercial or philanthropic goals is found to be a key element determining the path taken, and the role of individual informed intuition is highlighted as crucial in moving decisions forward. This study extends knowledge in sponsorship and corporate philanthropy, into a decision making and arts sponsorship context. The findings also offer a useful perspective for non-profit arts managers as they pitch their event to the business sector.

Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

THE EFFECTS OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ON STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING

Information technology (IT) may be defined as computer-based technology for the storage, accessing, processing and communication of information. Many writers have suggested that the use of IT should improve strategic decisions and have developed a number of propositions about the effects of IT on strategic decision making. However, no study has yet addressed the specific effects of IT on major phases of this process. Using Mintzberg, Raisinghani and Theoret's (1976, ‘The structure of unstructured decision processes’, Administrative Science Quarterly, 21, 2, 246–75) strategic decision-making model, this study assessed the effects of IT on the major phases of the process through an intensive examination of eight decisions in four companies. the results of the study provide new information on the specific ways IT improves decision-making efficiency and effectiveness at each stage of the strategic decision process.     

Patterns of power distribution in managerial decision making in Chinese and British industrial organizations

This article is one of three reports about the results of a Sino-British joint research project on managerial decision making in eleven Chinese companies and ten British companies. Forty managers and twenty trade union leaders from both manufacturing and service industries participated in the study. Data about decision-making patterns in eighteen different decision tasks in the organizations were collected. The results showed that there were interesting organizational and cultural differences in decision-making patterns in the two countries between manufacturing and service industries, between management and trade union groups, among short-, medium- and long-term decisions and across organizational levels. There were clear shifts of the decision-making power across organizational levels depending upon the type of decision tasks. A model of decision power shift was proposed in terms of the effects of organizational and cultural factors on patterns of organizational decision making. The implications of the decision power shift model to the management practice in the international context were highlighted.     

Choosing strategic responses to address emerging environmental regulations: size,perceived influence and uncertainty

How companies respond to impending regulations is a significant aspect of corporate strategy. Regulations, especially environmental regulations, are expanding quickly and increasingly important to firm success. The threat of impending environmental regulation forces companies to choose levels of strategic responses on a continuum from passive to active. Using practitioner oriented research and existing theoretical models of corporate response, this study finds that the type of strategic response is negatively related to size, positively related to state uncertainty and negatively related to effect/response uncertainty. Based on existing literature and the results of this study, the paper suggests that simplifying the uncertainty construct could lead to more definitive findings in future research. The study results also suggest that a curvilinear relationship may exist between managerial perception of influence and level of strategic response. Most importantly, the findings could have a significant impact on firm decision making regarding environmental investments. For example, it is hoped that firms will be able to use the findings of this study to further understand and anticipate their competitors' decisions. Practitioners may also benefit from the conclusions on uncertainty in that they may be able to more cleanly parse the types of uncertainty immersed in impending environmental regulations. Finally, firms may be better able to understand decisions by their own managers and their competitors' managers in terms of their perceived influence over the regulatory process. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

基于实物期权法对R&D项目价值评估的研究——对布莱克-舒尔斯定价模型的改进

针对R&D项目投资的特点,探讨了采用布莱克一舒尔斯期权定价模型对R&D项目价值评估可能存在的缺陷,并提出一种改进方法,即将决策树和布莱克一舒尔斯定价模型结合运用,因为决策树能够模拟研发项目的阶段性决策过程,考虑到多个离散型不确定性因素的相关性,模拟并计算出对决策路径依赖的现金流,因此能克服纯粹使用布莱克一舒尔斯公式的不足,在考虑多个不确定性因素的影响下,实现对多阶段R&D项目价值的评估,作出正确的投资决策。     

PROCEDURAL RATIONALITY IN THE STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING PROCESS*

Despite the central place of rationality in the organization theory, strategic management, and decision-making literatures, we know relatively little about why some strategic decision-making procedures are more rational than others. This question was addressed in a study of 57 strategic decisions in 24 companies, using a multiple-informant, structured interview protocol. Results indicate that environmental competitive threat, perceived external control of the organization, and the uncertainty of the strategic issues being addressed are related to procedural rationality. Surprisingly, some of these relationships were in the opposite direction from our predictions. These results are interpreted within a framework that emphasizes the link between procedural rationality and managerial discretion.     

风险投资决策的多阶段混合式期权定价模型及其分析

从风险投资的投资时间多阶段性和投资决策不确定性出发,运用实物期权的二叉树模型和扩展后的三叉树模型,建立了一个符合风险投资实际的多阶段混合式期权定价模型,以期开拓对风险投资决策的新思路。     

APPLICATIONS OF DECISION TREES TO THE EVALUATION OF APPLIED RESEARCH PROJECTS

Abstract I n this paper two applications of decision trees are described. These relate to the electronics and chemical industries and are concerned with the evaluation of applied research projects aimed at new products. It is demonstrated that decision tree diagramming is a demanding yet flexible technique which allows the representation of sequential decisions and subjectively based data in a readily understood form.     

The timing of final charitable bequest decisions

• Understanding the timing of final charitable bequest decisions permits nonprofits to co‐ordinate their marketing efforts to correspond with donor decision‐making. Using probate data from Australia and longitudinal survey data from the USA, this paper seeks to identify the timing of decisions that resulted in realized charitable bequests. We find evidence that charitable transfers result mostly from decisions that occur during the last 5 years of life and at the oldest ages. Charitable plans made earlier in life are often discarded.

Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measures for Sustainable Investment Decisions and Business Strategy – A Triple Bottom Line Approach

Traditionally, most investors have only taken economic variables (profitability and risk) into account when making investment decisions. In this paper we propose two measures, the Relative Sustainable Performance Measure (RSPM) and the Measure of Commitment‐failure (MC), that permit sustainable decision making, which takes environmental and social variables into consideration in addition to the economic variables, for both investors and companies themselves. This makes a triple bottom line (TBL) approach to investment decision making possible. We apply our measures to the worldwide chemical sector and validate them. Moreover, we propose a 2D graphical sustainability analysis, which is simple and easy for investors to understand when making investment decisions and can be used if they are concerned about environmental and social matters. It also enables companies to analyse their sustainability performance and adapt their business plans accordingly. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Uncertainty and its perception: experimental study of the numeric expression of uncertainty in two decisional contexts

According to a consolidated tradition of research about the psychology of decisions (Newell et al. 2007) and the psychometric psychology (Sartori 2008), the present study aims at analysing the preferences of individuals between the main numeric expressions of uncertainty: the probabilistic form (expressed by percentages) and the fractional form (expressed by fractions). The purpose is to verify a different management of credit on the basis of a different expression of the representation of risk. The scientific outline refers to the most relevant studies in the field of decision making, which show the demonstrations and the experiments carried out by different authors starting from the investigations by Kahneman and Tversky. These results joined in their most accredited two theories: the Framing Effect and the Cumulative Prospect Theory, an evolution of the Prospect Theory. The following survey is designed to experimentally demonstrate the change in preferences on the basis of a different numeric representation of uncertainty. The study considers a generic sample of 100 individuals who were submitted two questionnaires especially designed. The obtained data were drawn up with statistic means in order to find out common norms in decision-making processes. The results showed the tendency of individuals to assign a different preference on the basis of the numeric representation, probabilistic or fractional. Referring to this feedback, one hypothesis is proposed as well as a new theory linked to the informative context of the options is presented.     

Doing well by doing right: a fundraiser's guide to ethical decision‐making

• The level of trust a prospective donor has in a charity will, in part, determine whether the individual chooses to support the charity as well as the amount of that support. A key factor involved in trust is an organization's ethical standards. Donors prefer to make donations to organizations that maintain the highest principles. If an organization can consistently make the best possible, most ethical decisions, it will be recognized as being an ethical institution, which in turn will enhance the trust it engenders, and, therefore, the support it can attract. A number of ethical decision‐making models exist. Adopting a decision‐making model will ensure that a methodical approach is used and that the incidents of rash decision‐making will be reduced. Using an ethical decision‐making model will help individuals arrive consistently at the best solutions to ethical dilemmas, defend those decisions, enhance public trust, secure more donors, and raise more money. The value of sound decision‐making and effective ethical decision‐making models are reviewed in this paper.

Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

预案分析的贝叶斯网络方法

在对预案进行评估分析和执行过程中常会涉及不确定性问题,传统的预案编制工具关键路径法(Critical Path Method,CPM)不具备处理不确定性问题的能力。本文推荐的贝叶斯网络法(Bayesian Networks)因其处理分析不确定性问题的能力已经被广泛应用于一系列的决策支持应用,但对预案评估分析的应用是新颖的。本文介绍了用贝叶斯网络法分析传统关键路径法编制的预案。     

SUCCESS IN DECISION MAKING: DIFFERENT ORGANIZATIONS, DIFFERING REASONS FOR SUCCESS

In an attempt to elucidate some possible conditions for success in managerial decision making, data were analysed from 53 cases of decisions in eight British organizations, five business firms and three non-business organizations (two universities and a District of the National Health Service). No clear relationships between features of the processes of making the decisions, and their successfulness were found until the business firms and the non-business organizations were separated. Clear differences then showed up, relatively speaking, in the conditions conductive to success. In the business firms, a successful decision was more likely to result from a decision-making process in which resources were available. In other words, in business a successful decision is most likely when sufficient information and sufficient means of implementation are to hand. By contrast, in the universities and the Health District, a successful decision was associated more with the social qualities of the decision-making process itself. In other words, in non-business organizations a successful decision is most likely when the right people participate and the people at the very top do not interfere too much.     

Brewed for decades: Cyprus' perfect financial storm

• The Cypriot banking catastrophe was a momentous point in economic history at which a tiny island suffered such acute financial distress that it shook the entire Eurozone. Here we trace how Cyprus go to that point, via a series of mishaps and misjudgements, and missed escape routes going back over four decades.
• Cyprus will go down in history as one of the closest there has ever been to a perfect storm of financial instability, brewed from terrible decisions by its banks, supervisors and politicians; compounded by rotten luck and bad timing. Even Cyprus’ political and financial strengths made things worse by delaying firm action and allowing losses to build. Most imaginable horrors that could happen to a banking system did happen, and that was even before the controversial and partially botched international rescue operation.
• It was an international crisis in many senses of the word. The crisis was hosted in Cyprus, massively escalated by events in Greece, and paid for in large part by Russian depositors.
• There are lessons for Greece, but the experiences also have important differences. Crucially, there was a strong constituency in Cyprus to support painful austerity and structural reforms necessary to get rid of capital controls. That does not exist in Greece.
• The dramatic unfolding of events on the night of 15 March 2013 also provides a lesson that was not heeded in Greece. All‐night negotiating sessions against hard‐deadlines tend to lead to highly flawed agreements, though they are also a symptom of such commitment to the euro that things might work out in spite of the flaws.

     

Open the box: A behavioural perspective on the reshoring decision-making and implementation process

In the realm of manufacturing location decisions, reshoring has increasingly attracted the attention of practitioners, policy makers and scholars. While many articles have analysed the drivers of reshoring decisions, the decision-making and implementation process still lacks empirical analyses. This paper addresses this gap with a grounded theory approach, in particular, through an iterative process going back and forth between the theoretical and empirical worlds. By analysing four cases from the textile-clothing-leather-footwear industry, we demonstrate that the process characteristics are affected by the behavioural features of the decision itself, such as rationality, complexity and anchoring. Our study highlights the relevance of the behavioural approach in reshoring decisions and provides evidence of many challenges that managers should be prepared to face. It further offers advice to policy makers, warning them about the dark side of reshoring and emphasizing their role in supporting companies to take structured rather than intuitive sub-optimal decisions.     

COMPLEXITY AND CLEAVAGE: DUAL EXPLANATIONS OF STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING [I]

This paper presents a framework for the comparative analysis of strategic decision-making processes. It draws together and integrates predominant but previously disparate theories of decision-making. Examples are given of how decision-making processes may be characterized and, hence, facilitate comparison across all types of strategic decisions. Explanation of why decision processes may differ is from two perspectives. First, the complexity of the topic may lead to particular characteristics of the decision process. Secondly, the cleavage of interests which a topic arouses may also lead to particular aspects of decision processes. We argue that each decision topic has varying levels of both complexity and cleavage and four examples of strategic decisions are analyzed on these dimensions. We identify four profiles of decision-making processes associated with varying levels of complexity and cleavage and we finally suggest that our model may explain and empirically demonstrate variations across a large number of diverse strategic decisions.     

Decision-making under uncertainty for capital budgeting and hiring

Most business decisions are not merely risky but are subject to uncertainty. Different individuals estimate different measures of merit. It is shown that the traditional procedure of ranking the alternatives by their estimated measure of merit and then choosing the highest ranked alternative frequently gives the wrong answer even where the estimates are unbiased. The argument will be made using a simple decision tree. The effect will be shown to be especially serious where there is competition, direct or indirect, between the alternatives.     

The short‐term impact of Brexit

• A scenario run on the Oxford Global Model suggests that Brexit would leave the level of UK GDP 1.3ppt lower by Q2 2018 compared with our baseline forecast that the UK votes to stay in the EU. A vote to leave would mainly shock business confidence but consumers would be adversely affected too. Exporters in price‐sensitive sectors would benefit from a weaker exchange rate.
• Market pricing suggests that sterling could initially fall by around 15% before recovering some of its losses, while the heightened uncertainty would also be expected to drive a sharp drop in equity prices in H2 2016.
• Brexit would present something of a dilemma for policymakers. While a weaker pound would cause inflation to initially spike upwards, we would expect the MPC to look through this and cut Bank Rate in order to support activity. And with the UK likely to retain its reputation as a safe haven, this would also see gilt yields stay lower for longer.
• Weaker growth would also put the Chancellor in breach of the fiscal mandate, though we would expect him to plead extenuating circumstances, rather than tighten policy and potentially exacerbate the slowdown.