经济不确定性与我国宏观经济波动——基于实际经济周期模型的分析

经济不确定性是我国宏观经济波动的重要原因,本文通过构建一个考虑消费习惯形成的实际经济周期理论模型,探讨了经济不确定性、技术进步和劳动供给对我国宏观经济波动影响的内在机理及影响程度。研究结果表明:一方面,经济不确定性、技术进步和劳动供给冲击可以解释中国经济波动的大部分,其中,经济不确定性冲击的贡献最大;另一方面,经济不确定性、技术进步和劳动供给冲击均具有长期性,其中,经济不确定性对宏观经济变量以负向冲击为主,而技术进步和劳动供给的冲击与此相反。此外,消费习惯形成仅在短期内可以弱化外生变量的冲击,从长期来看,消费习惯形成对宏观经济波动没有影响。     

经济政策不确定性与企业退出决策:理论与实证研究

经济政策影响微观企业经营是现有研究的共识.在已有文献基础上,文章考察了经济政策不确定性对企业退出决策的影响.文章基于一个代表性企业最优退出决策的框架,构建了经济政策不确定性影响企业退出决策作用机制的理论模型,并利用1998?2011年中国工业企业微观数据对理论模型进行了实证检验.研究结果显示,经济政策不确定性通过增加市场预期收益的机制降低了企业的退出概率,即面对高水平的经济政策不确定性时,企业对未来市场形成了良好的预期,倾向于采取理性的"延迟退出"决策.进一步分析发现,企业退出决策的"延迟现象"在不同企业、行业和区域间呈现出异质性,经济政策不确定性更多地延迟了具有优越发展前景的企业、行业及区域的市场退出.从企业方面来看,这一现象在规模小、跨产业经营、出口、政府补贴的企业及创新企业中更加显著;从行业方面来看,这一现象在资金技术密集型的行业及生产率高的行业中更加显著;从区域来看,这一现象在市场化程度高的区域及经济增长快的区域更加显著.可见,政府的经济政策变动,不仅引导了企业制定理性的战略决策,而且激励了优势资源和市场的持续发展.     

经济增长的核心因素分析

经济学界的关于推动经济增长的因素众说纷纭,其中包括资源的积累、资源存量的使用效率、技术进步、劳动力、知识、科技创新和人力资本等。文章认为在世界经济的视角下,和平的环境、知识、开放的经济条件、结构性增长是世界经济增长的核心因素,并试从这四个因素进行分析。     

经济政策不确定性与垂直整合——基于供应链视角的传导机制解释

垂直整合指企业控制产业链上、下游环节,将上下游企业间交易内化为企业内部的生产和管理活动.不同于以往专注企业独立个体的研究,文章从供应链视角出发,探究经济政策不确定性对企业垂直整合的影响,利用2000-2018年A股制造业上市公司作为研究样本,并手工整理、测算垂直整合指标,研究发现,经济政策不确定性程度越高,企业越倾向于垂直整合.分企业、行业和区域三个层面的异质性检验结果显示,对于非国有企业、资产专用性较高的企业、高科技行业、竞争性行业、动荡性行业以及东部地区,经济政策不确定性对垂直整合的影响效应更为明显.稳健性检验及工具变量估计结果一致显示,该结论稳健成立.进一步,文章从供应链角度诠释了经济政策不确定性促进企业垂直整合的传导机理.结果显示,经济政策不确定性会削弱上、下游企业的投资强度,导致更高的融资约束,从而推动企业加速垂直整合、完善供应链管理.文章从供应链管理的视角为地方政府和企业应对突发事件以及由此导致的政策不确定性提供了有益启示.     

集群内非对称核心企业与配套企业间承诺可信问题及其影响机制分析

基于中观层面的集群非对称核心企业与配套企业关系,构建核心企业与配套企业可信承诺的理论模型,探讨了企业层面的承诺可信问题及其影响机制。研究发现,市场价格偏离承诺价格的波动幅度对企业双方承诺可信具有决定性作用,一旦波动幅度超越一定界限,承诺将会变得不可信。而且,市场价格偏离承诺价格的波动幅度期望值、关系资本投入、交易费用节省以及预期合作得益等因素对企业双方承诺可信度具有重要影响,相应的数值模拟分析同样印证了这一结论。承诺可信问题具有一定的普适性,对探究许多非对称主体之间的关系,如农户与龙头企业以及其它类型主体之间的承诺可信问题等,有一定的参考价值。     

Economic Uncertainty,Monetary Uncertainty,and the Demand for Money: Evidence From Asian Countries

In 1984 Nobel Lauriat Milton Friedman claimed that the decline in velocity of money or an increase in the demand for money was due to volatility of money supply. Another study argued that if monetary volatility could impact the demand for money, so can output volatility (as a measure of economic uncertainty). Both measures of uncertainty can cause people to reallocate their assets between cash and real assets that are less risky. If public become more cautious about the future, they will hold more cash today. However, if they chose to hedge against uncertain prices, they may hold more real assets and less cash. These two hypotheses are tested for Asian countries using bounds testing approach. While both measures are found to have short‐run significant effects on the demand for money in almost all countries, the short‐run effects last into the long run in half of the countries. Furthermore, we find positive and negative effects of both measures which are in line with previous research related to a few developed countries.     

经济政策不确定性与全球贸易低速增长——基于引力模型的分析

不断上升的经济政策不确定性能否有助于解释全球贸易的低速增长呢?文章利用贸易引力模型,从沉没成本、实际需求和预期三种渠道探讨了经济政策不确定性对国际贸易的影响,然后利用国别配对数据对其进行了实证研究.结果表明:(1)贸易规模不但受到进口国经济政策不确定性绝对水平的影响,也受到其相对增速的影响,但出口国经济政策不确定性的影响不显著;(2)经济政策不确定性的贸易抑制效应与进口国的宏观经济状态有关,在失业率较高时期表现更为明显;(3)经济政策不确定性对贸易的影响存在门限特征,不确定性程度较高时期的影响明显高于程度较低时期的影响.文章不但有助于解释2008年金融危机后全球贸易的低速增长,也指出了国际间的政策合作和反对"逆全球化"进而降低经济政策不确定性,是实现全球贸易增长的重要途径.     

The Role of the American Economic Association in Economic Education: A Brief History

The American Economic Association is shown to have played a steady and significant role in the development of economic education     

历史制度分析:从经济史视角研究制度问题的新进展

本文对经济史研究制度问题的最新进展——历史制度分析——进行了简要评述，这一新进展主要是运用微观经济理论研究制度及其效率内涵。由于篇幅所限，本文主要概括了这一学说所采用的研究方法和相关的经济理论，并对经济制度的有关研究进行了考察。进一步说，本文主要介绍了历史制度分析的一些研究成果。最后，由于篇幅和资料的限制，评述仅限于研究美国和欧洲经济史的著作。     

Complex Systems and the Merger Process

This paper considers how some of the generic principles that have emerged in the course of recent study and thinking around complex systems might be applied in a helpful way to the particular context of understanding the nature of the merger process. Theoretically, the paper stresses the connections between the processual and time-dependent nature of learning and knowledge acquisition and the systemic nature of socio-economic development and transformation. When carried into the substantive domain of mergers and their contribution to restructuring in the pharmaceuticals industry, we suggest that the complex systems approach provides a fruitful complement to alternative conceptual frameworks, albeit one which is still at an early stage of development in terms of this particular application.     

Complex Systems and the Merger Process

This paper considers how some of the generic principles that have emerged in the course of recent study and thinking around complex systems might be applied in a helpful way to the particular context of understanding the nature of the merger process. Theoretically, the paper stresses the connections between the processual and time-dependent nature of learning and knowledge acquisition and the systemic nature of socio-economic development and transformation. When carried into the substantive domain of mergers and their contribution to restructuring in the pharmaceuticals industry, we suggest that the complex systems approach provides a fruitful complement to alternative conceptual frameworks, albeit one which is still at an early stage of development in terms of this particular application.     

试论产业群的核心能力

对产业群的定义进行了回顾,以企业核心能力为基础,从产业群的角度对产业群的核心能力进行初步的探讨,阐述了产业群核心能力的现实意义。     

信息系统的经济效益分析

企业信息化的实质是实现业务与管理的精细化。不以业务和管理为本,单纯由信息技术部门驱动信息技术项目,或者业务部门参与不足,是信息系统投资和运行效益低下的根本原因。业务流程重组与信息技术的有机结合,是提高信息系统经济效益和企业竞争力的关键所在。     

经济解释范式:经济思想史中的又一次综合

张五常经济学以新古典经济学的个人争取利益最大化为内核,加上新制度经济学的交易费用、产权与契约等约束条件作为保护带,推导出一系列可验证的理论假说,从而得到一般化的经济解释范式。它继承了穆勒范式和马歇尔范式的"稳定性偏好与理性选择"前提假设,又增加了"科斯革命"中的交易费用约束,因此,其解释能力远远超过了萨缪尔森范式和新凯恩斯范式。经济解释范式与穆勒范式、马歇尔范式、萨缪尔森范式和新凯恩斯范式一样,都应该是经济思想史中的一次重要综合。     

Price Commitment versus Flexibility: the Role of Exchange Rate Uncertainty and its Implications for Exchange Rate Passthrough

The paper investigates the incentives to commit price or retain price flexibility in a model in which exporting firms face different degrees of exchange rate uncertainty. The result shows that introducing exchange rate uncertainty can lead to the endogenous emergence of a unique leader–follower equilibrium; which firm emerges as price leader depends on the substitutability of products, the magnitude of exchange rate uncertainty, and the cost structure. This study may provide one explanation as to why some exporters set price before the realization of the nominal exchange rates (“sticky price”). The results imply exchange rate variability affects exchange rate passthrough.     

The Causal Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market: A Panel Data Analysis

This study applies recently developed bootstrap panel Granger causality, proposed by Kónya, to investigate a causal link between economic policy uncertainty and stock markets in nine countries over monthly periods from 2003M01 to 2014M12 (Kónya (2006 Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23, 978–992. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23, 978–992). The modeling allows us to examine both the cross-sectional dependency and the country-specific heterogeneity. The empirical results indicate that not all countries are alike, and that the theoretical prediction that stock markets fall at the announcement of a policy change is not always supported. Specifically, this work finds evidence of the stock market leading hypothesis for India, Italy, and Spain, while the economic policy uncertainty leading hypothesis cannot be rejected for the United Kingdom. In addition, the neutrality hypothesis was supported in the remaining countries (Canada, China, France, Germany and the United States), while the feedback hypothesis, however, is not found. The findings of this study could provide important policy implications for these nine countries.     

经济政策不确定性与系统性金融风险的跨市场传染——基于非线性网络关联的研究

本文构建"全球金融市场与经济政策不确定性"的非线性关联网络,对全球19个主要国家(地区)的经济政策不确定性(EPU)与系统性金融风险传染关系展开研究。结果表明,股票市场是风险的主要输出方,而外汇市场则是风险的主要接受者,两者之间存在非对称传染效应。分样本研究发现,危机期间风险传染更加明显,且EPU在风险传染中发挥着重要作用;同时,股票市场是风险的源头,对外汇和EPU具有较强的溢出效应。近四年的分析发现,风险传染沿着"股票市场→经济政策不确定性→外汇市场"这一途径扩散开来。进一步的分析发现,境外金融市场会对中国大陆金融市场产生显著的风险传染,中国香港金融市场则容易遭受外部冲击。此外,美国资本市场会对全球造成明显的风险冲击,全球EPU(尤其美国EPU)是引发全球金融市场震荡的重要因素。