外商直接投资与东亚金融危机——一个新的分析视角

关于东亚金融危机爆发原因的研究很多。但是大多数研究没有注意到FDI的大量流入对于东亚国家爆发金融危机的影响。虽然FDI没有直接引起金融危机的爆发,但是它确实对危机国家经济脆弱性的形成发挥了作用。FDI给东道国带来的金融风险往往是潜在的,如果不能有效监管,这种潜在金融风险就有转化成现实金融风险的可能。所以,一味提高FDI的引资比重并不能使发展中国家摆脱金融危机的侵扰,发展中国家有必要加强对FDI的监管。     

当前世界性金融危机的马克思主义解读及其启示

国内外关于当前世界性金融危机的成因解释大多仅停留在技术和操作层面上,唯有马克思主义金融危机理论才指出了其本质和根源。虽然其也提出了一些化解措施,但由于时代不同,指导价值在现实的操作层面会略显不足。从战略的高度看当前世界性金融危机,首先,要对当前世界性的金融危机有一个准确认知;其次,要推进金融体制在改革中吸取西方资本主义国家在技术和操作层面上失败的教训;最后,要提防被当前金融危机下的意识形态之争所迷惑,坚定不移地走马克思主义中国化的创新之路。     

金融危机动荡下的甘肃经济稳定与发展

2008年由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机已全面蔓延,渗透到各个经济领域和经济区域,甘肃经济也同样受到金融危机的;中击。面对金融危机,首先要保持经济稳定、社会稳定,与此同时应充分利用国家政策,发挥政府在金融危机中的主导作用,甘肃经济发展的也应遵循这一原则和路径。甘肃经济在此次金融危机中挑战与机遇并存,甘肃省要充分利用金融危机中国家的相关政策,加快甘肃基础设施建设,调整产业结构,实现甘肃经济的稳定与发展。     

Financial Openness and the Dutch Disease

This paper studies the relationship between the degree of financial openness and Dutch disease effects of capital inflows in developing countries. The results reveal that an increase in financial openness leads to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. In particular, the study shows that an increase in inflow of foreign direct investments (FDI) results in an appreciation of the real exchange rate in more financially open countries only. The results also suggest that there is a trade‐off between the resource movement effect and the spending effect in more financially open economies following an increase in FDI inflows, such that the more the tradable sector expands relative to the nontradable sector, the greater is the real exchange rate appreciation.     

(NON‐)RESILIENCY OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES DURING THE 2007–2009 FINANCIAL CRISIS

We study the contraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in the United States during the recent financial crisis and show their unusual non‐resiliency, which depends in part on the global nature of the economic recession, but also on the increases in the cost of financing FDI in the economies in which the flows originate. To formally study the effects of external financial conditions on FDI in the United States, we exploit the three dimensions of a panel of US inward FDI flows organized by recipient US industries, source countries and years for the recorded flows. Changes in the cost of finance in the source countries have little or no effect on total inward flows (the sum of equity, debt and reinvested earnings) over the 2006–2010 period. However, US industries characterized by more financial vulnerability experience statistically significant variations in the debt and equity components of inward FDI flows in response to the changes in the cost of capital that occurred in the source countries during the crisis.     

Some preliminary evidence of the impact of the 2008–2009 financial crisis on women

Beginning in late 2007 and into 2008, a financial crisis originating in the United States spread throughout the world. This article seeks to present preliminary evidence of the impact of this crisis on female labour force participation and the proportion of females working in nonagricultural sectors. A panel data set involving 171 countries is utilized, and the results indicate that the financial crisis led to increases in female labour force participation as well as the proportion of females working in the nonagricultural sector. There are differences in impact for countries of various income levels (low, middle and high). In addition, female political power has also led to increases in the economic participation of females.     

信用货币、金融危机与国际金融合作

全球金融危机对传统的以美联储为主导的金融调控方式及美元在世界经济中所扮演的角色提出了严峻的挑战。导致全球金融危机的根源是美国经济的畸形发展与国际金融体制的固有缺陷。化解本次金融危机的出路在于,各国之间要加强政策协调和进行国际货币体制改革,各国央行要采取协调合作的干预措施,共同制订新的国际金融条例,建立广泛的国际金融合作体系。本文首先分析了信用货币的发展及其监管困境,接着对全球金融危机的深层根源进行研究,最后提出了通过加强国际金融合作和改革国际货币体系来应对全球金融危机的建议。     

The Korean financial crisis and the soft budget constraint

A panel of Korean firms is used to test for the soft budget constraint (SBC) in bank lending before and after the 1997–1998 financial crisis. SBC is present if a firm can borrow from its bank despite being in financial distress, which we define by a low Altman's z-score. We find that prior to 1997 financially distressed firms were able to borrow while after the crisis their ability to borrow declined substantially. We also demonstrate that SBC was a significant factor in the firms’ propensity to default during the crisis.     

资本账户开放与系统性金融危机

本研究以全球范围内具有代表性的55个国家的跨国数据为基础,通过实证分析系统考察了资本账户开放和系统性金融危机之间的相关关系.实证结果表明,在资本账户开放和系统性金融危机的联系机制方面,重要的是开放方式的选择,而不是开放程度的高低:长期中资本账户开放程度的提高不会诱发金融危机,但激进式的资本账户开放方式会显著增加金融危机的发生概率.     

Effects of financial constraints on export performance of firms during the global financial crisis: microeconomic evidence from Korea

This study uses a manufacturing firm-level panel data set of South Korea for 2006–2013 to investigate the effect of financial constraints on the export performance of firms, with particular emphasis on the corporate ownership structure. The empirical results show that foreign multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiaries are not affected by financial constraint during both crisis and noncrisis periods, implying advantages of foreign ownership. However, domestic firms suffer more from financial constraints on exports during crisis years. In particular, domestic firms without parent firms are financially constrained during both crisis and noncrisis periods. However, those with parent firms do not experience financial constraints during noncrisis periods, although they too suffer from them during crisis periods. Thus, parent–subsidiary linkage among domestic firms plays an important role in alleviating financial constraints on export activity in noncrisis years but not as much during crisis years. Therefore, domestic parent firms exhibit less resilience to the global financial crisis, in comparison to foreign MNC parent firms.     

Transmission of the 2007–2008 financial crisis in advanced countries of the European Union

The aim of this paper is to identify the main factors responsible for the 2007–2008 crisis development and transmission across the 10 developed European Union (EU) countries. In order to achieve this objective, trade and financial linkages, crisis contagion from the United States and EU countries and countries' internal and external economic vulnerabilities are examined. The results of logistic regression model covering the period from 2002 to 2012 presented in this paper indicate that the transmission of the crisis occurred through contagion from the United States but also from other EU countries. Additionally, the empirical results confirm that high inflation, a decrease in the exchange rate, and a decrease in the US long-term interest rates increased the probability of the 2007–2008 financial crisis.     

全球金融危机对台湾决策思维的影响

2008年全球金融海啸使得发达国家面对自上世纪30年代以来最大的衰退，但是发展中国家如金砖四国却依然持续发展。许多经济学家严厉地警告，家计单位及企业的消费支出减少，而对产出的影响更为严重，此举迫使台湾不得不通过扩大消费的方式，来挽回疲弱的经济力。本文针对此次全球金融危机对于台湾当局在因应策略上，关于全球金融体制的崩溃分析、有关当局的处理布局、国际经济组织及先进国家处理经验及建立新的清算机制等因应之道做分析与探讨，提供政策建议，希望封尔後的金融布局有所帮助。     

Long-term investment sensitivity to cash flow and financial crisis

This study examined investment–cash flow sensitivity in unconstrained and constrained firms from 1980 to 2010 in a sample of Italian manufacturing firms. Investment sensitivity to cash flow decreased over time, and financially constrained firms showed little difference in the decline compared with unconstrained firms. Last, investment sensitivity to cash flow increased during the financial crisis of 2008.     

The countercyclical role of Italian local banks during the financial crisis

The article analyses the role of local banks in Italy during the 2008–2009 crisis from the perspective of the relationship lending model. During the crisis, the risk of cascading failures of financial organizations has dramatically increased, thus causing a return of attention to local banking as a possible source of countercyclical behaviours in the financial markets thanks to their ability to establish fiduciary long-term relationships with small businesses.

The purpose of this article is to test this hypothesis and to disentangle the response of local banks during the financial turmoil according to their governance structure and location. Our results show that non-independent local banks and, to a limited extent, cooperative banks located in the rural area actually played a significant countercyclical role across the crisis. Policy implications suggest that prudential supervision should rethink the indicators of systemic risk in order to differentiate banks according to their capability of mitigating it.     

Banking on the FED: QE1-2-3 and the Rebalancing of the Global Economy

Growing income inequality in most countries in the 1990s and 2000s led to a global shortfall between supply and demand. The US economy bridged this shortfall domestically and globally by blowing successive equity market and housing bubbles, but these produced ever more severe financial crises. Rebalancing after the 2008 crisis required trade surplus countries to expand their non-traded sectors, but rebalancing is never immaculate. Instead, the Federal Reserve Bank's three rounds of Large-Scale Asset Purchases, or quantitative easing, shifted investment flows towards some developed and developing economies. As a matter of accounting, capital inflows led to shrinking trade surpluses in those countries. However, their relatively undeveloped securities markets mean that rebalancing largely occurred through rising housing prices, mirroring the same unsustainable phenomenon the USA experienced in the 2000s. In effect, the USA shifted part of its unsustainably large non-traded sector back to trade surplus countries by causing the real-estate part of the non-traded sector in surplus countries to expand. However, this is not a sustainable solution to global trade and financial imbalances in the long run, and risks producing the same kind of crises the USA experienced in 2008.     

Crisis and Recovery: What We Have Learned from the South Korean Experience?*

This paper analyzes the process of recovery from the 1997 financial crisis in South Korea, and draws some lessons from it. The fast restoration of financial stability due to early closure of non‐viable financial institutions and quick resolution of non‐performing loans was critical for the speedy recovery of the South Korean economy. The swift adjustment in fiscal and monetary policies in addition to the large depreciation of real exchange rates also supported the fast recovery. Corporate and government bond markets played an important role in the financial restructuring and macroeconomic adjustment process. Structural reforms helped to alleviate the weaknesses in the corporate sector, particularly in chaebol groups. However, the fast recovery also generated unwelcome side‐effects. Because of aggressive fiscal expansion through government‐guaranteed bonds and public credit guarantee programs, sovereign liabilities increased greatly and transparency of the official fiscal stance deteriorated. Thanks to structural reform, corporate and financial sectors began to recognize the importance of micro risk management, but increased risk aversion contributed to the slowdown of corporate investment and, therefore, reduced long‐run growth perspective in South Korea. How to revive long‐term growth rates remains an important question in South Korea despite fast recovery from the crisis.     

金融危机背景下中国消费信贷政策探讨

2007年美国爆发的次贷危机最终导致了全球性的金融危机,其根源在于美国社会的过度负债消费。受金融危机的影响,中国出口受阻、产能过剩凸显,为防止经济下滑,政府出台了扩大内需的政策,而追加投资在一定程度上又加剧了产能过剩,不利于经济结构的调整和长远发展,因此应大力促进居民消费,其有效方式是发展消费信贷。消费信贷促成了美国社会的高消费,曾极大地拉动美国经济增长,但过度负债最终拖累了美国经济。因此,中国应该吸取美国的经验和教训,结合中国的国情,合理发展消费信贷,鼓励和提倡适度负债。     

Local financial development and constraints on domestic private-firm exports: Evidence from city commercial banks in China

We show that the development of city commercial banks (CCBs) across China has alleviated the constraints from China’s domestic financial-market inefficiency on the export activity of domestic private firms. Considering the export behavior of 260 cities between 1997 and 2012, we confirm the well-established under-performance of domestic private firms in financially more vulnerable sectors compared to foreign affiliates in China. We show that a greater number of CCB branches raises domestic private-firm exports disproportionately more in financially-dependent sectors, which is in line with improved financing conditions for these companies. This improvement in export performance appears to result from both an increase in the number of destination countries and a decline in prices. CCB development is moreover associated with a reduction in the systematic disadvantage of domestic private firms relative to foreign-owned firms in export markets resulting from their greater financial exclusion. We, however, also find that private-firm export performance has deteriorated relative to that of state-owned firms, casting doubt on the ability of CCBs to end the systematic bias of lending in favor of the state sector.     

‘A Hard Rain's a-Gonna Fall’: The Global Financial Crisis and Developing Countries

The global financial crisis of 2008–09 is the deepest downturn in the world economy since the Great Depression of 1929–33. Though its effects have been felt most noticeably in the developed countries, it has affected many developing countries. This article assesses what we know about the impact of the crisis on developing countries, and how the crisis may affect long-term development outcomes. It also examines the implications of the crisis for some key issues in development policy and thinking.     

Income inequality and credit expansion in post-communist countries

There is an on-going debate on the antecedents and consequences of income inequality. Recent studies find that income inequality was a cause of the recent financial crisis. However, the findings on the inequality–indebtedness relationship are mixed and based on analyses of developed countries. The aim of this research is to test how income inequality influences borrowing in post-communist countries, whose financial markets are not very developed, which has important implications for income inequality. Therefore, we include financial system development in the analysis. We base our analysis on state-level panel data and find that income inequality will increase indebtedness in the private sector. However, these results are model and region specific. To preclude higher income inequality and the emergence of a financial crisis, policies should be directed towards improving the role of financial intermediaries and stock markets.